iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Violent crime has also dominated the list of voter concerns in election polls, prompting candidates to pledge tougher security measures. As I told @reuters.com, there’s plenty of political mileage in promising tougher punishment. @igarapeorg.bsky.social www.reuters.com/world/americ...

reuters.com

Brazil vote approaches with Lula and Bolsonaro polling in close race

Brazil's presidential campaign draws to a close on Thursday, ahead of voting on Sunday in a race that will determine whether Latin America's largest nation follows the conservative shift that has swep...

000

Reposted by Robert Muggah

Mongabay @mongabay.com · 28/09/2026

[Commentary] Environmental crimes like illegal logging & mining down climate action by exploiting nature for profit. @muggah.bsky.social & Ilona Szabó de Carvalho argue that halting these crimes requires tracking profits across the full supply chain, from extraction site to corporate offices.

mongabay.cc

To tackle environmental crime, track profits through the whole supply chain (commentary)

The world has spent a decade trying to put a price on nature. Forests have become carbon sinks, while wetlands are increasingly described as natural infrastructure. Biodiversity is also being drawn…

0147

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Environmental #crime is among the world’s most lucrative illicit markets, but it’s also under-studied. Estimates suggest it generates upwards $280 billion a year in profits with social costs of between $1-2 trillion a year. Our latest with @mongabay.com news.mongabay.com/2026/09/to-t...

news.mongabay.com

To tackle environmental crime, track profits through the whole supply chain (commentary)

11411

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

la plus grande partie de l’Histoire, la guerre est restée circonscrite par la géographie. La cyberguerre a fait voler ce frontière en éclat. L'avènement de l'IA a fait croître les cyber-risques de manière exponentielle. Mon article avex @letemps.ch www.letemps.ch/opinions/deb...

letemps.ch

Quand la guerre n’a plus de ligne de front - Le Temps

OPINION. La cyberguerre transforme à la fois le lieu du conflit et ses participants, écrit Robert Muggah, cofondateur de l’institut Igarapé, laboratoire de réflexion brésilien; le nouveau champ de bat...

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Seductive as it may be, Bukeleism is unlikely to work in Brazil. The #PCC and the #CV are far more sophisticated than El Savador’s extortionists and their (transnational) businesses much harder to track and disrupt. Spoke to @economist.com. www.economist.com/the-americas...

economist.com

Brazil’s gangsters: less murder, more money

Crime is softer, but it affects more Brazilians than ever before

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

There’s a rising perception that U.S. security policy toward Brazil has become entangled in politics. I told the #nytimes it falls short of a rupture but is generating heightened mistrust. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/12/w...

nytimes.com

Visa Issue Threatens U.S.-Brazil Cooperation on Crime

Officials say the Trump administration is blocking some of Brazil’s efforts to expand cooperation on fighting transnational crime.

000

Reposted by Robert Muggah

Project Syndicate @projectsyndicate.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

The Iran war has narrowed the political space for climate negotiations. But geopolitical volatility need not derail the energy transition, argue Igarapé Institutes' @muggah.bsky.social, @uspoficial.bsky.social’s Carlos Nobre, and @pik-potsdam.bsky.social’s Johan Rockström. bit.ly/4r75VEJ

031

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

The Canada–US relationship has entered its most serious confrontation in generations. The likeliest outcome through the end of the year remains a harsher economic conflict rather than a security crisis. #secdev flashnote.secdev.com/p/canada-and...

flashnote.secdev.com

Canada and America: continental drift

Coercion over trade is spreading into questions of sovereignty. Continental defence is the last part of the relationship still holding.

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

How Trump's foreign policy is changing the world order. I told #USAToday that Trump is extracting more from American power today while giving other countries reasons to depend on it less tomorrow. www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...

usatoday.com

Allies into foes. Foes into allies. What's behind Trump's world order assault?

President Trump's transactional foreign policy is challenging traditional alliances and global power dynamics, for good and ill. Where does it lead?

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

The Russia-Ukraine war has entered one of its most dangerous phases since the full-scale invasion in February 2022. Several trends are now converging. Our latest analysis at #SecDev considers escalatory dynamics in Ukraine and more widely across Europe. flashnote.secdev.com/p/ukraines-w...

flashnote.secdev.com

Ukraine's war: deeper, wider, closer

Heavier Russian strikes on Ukraine, deeper Ukrainian attacks inside Russia and mounting sabotage across NATO Europe: an assessment of the next 30 days.

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

There are good reasons to be skeptical about how much impact #Meta’s latest $17b settlement will have on the tech giant. The bigger story is not the money. It’s that governments are beginning to regulate how social media platforms are actually built. theconversation.com/the-product-...

theconversation.com

The product is the problem: Why Meta’s $17 billion settlement matters beyond America

The agreement could mark a turning point for public policies on social media precisely because it addresses the architecture of the platforms themselves.

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Washington has long eyed #Brazil’s critical minerals. But as US-Brazil diplomatic relations wobble over trade and political disputes, the Serra Verde offtake arrangement weakens Brasília’s negotiating power. Spoke to #FT about the situation. www.ft.com/content/a404...

ft.com

The old asbestos town at the heart of the rare earths race

Brazil’s first facility for the minerals is a key component in US plans to break free from Chinese dominance

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

While the Bukele model promises quick wins through heavy policing and mass incarceration, #CostaRica (like Brazil, Colombia, etc) faces a different challenge than #ElSalvador, with transnational criminal organizations now deeply embedded in the country. Spoke to #WSJ. www.wsj.com/world/americ...

wsj.com

Runaway Drug Violence Sets Off a Political Earthquake in Costa Rica

A bastion of democratic stability grapples with the fallout of a surge in narcotics trafficking.

010

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

For much of the postwar era, US power rested on predictability. Deals survived elections. Firms invested because rules endured. Allies trusted US guarantees. Even the dollar benefited from faith in American institutions. That foundation is now cracking. flashnote.secdev.com/p/canadas-mi...

flashnote.secdev.com

Canada’s middle power moment

Canada suspended trade talks with Washington rather than accept terms it judged unfair. Other middle powers are studying the result.

010

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

“Brazil’s rare earths are significant because they sit at the intersection of resource nationalism, energy transition demand, Western supply-chain diversification and competition with China’s rare earth dominance.” @apnews.com apnews.com/article/braz...

apnews.com

The US and others turn to Brazil for rare earths, raising environmental concerns

Brazil is becoming a key global battleground for rare earth minerals that are crucial for renewable energy and technology.

010

Reposted by Robert Muggah

Mongabay @mongabay.com · 31/07/2026

[Commentary] Record gold prices are driving illicit mining across the Amazon, devastating forests, rivers and Indigenous territories. In a new op-ed, researcher @muggah.bsky.social argues central banks and major buyers must enforce stricter supply chain traceability to stop laundered gold.

mongabay.cc

The global gold rush consuming the Amazon (commentary)

In November 2025, Brazilian authorities, supported by Interpol, disabled 277 dredges used for illegal gold mining along the Madeira River. The machinery was valued at about $6.8 million. The…

01812

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

The #AGI "race" btn the US and China is the wrong story. Power will go to those who control compute, energy, data centers, talent and distribution — not necessarily those with the biggest baddest model. : www.weforum.org/stories/2026...

weforum.org

The coming disorder over artificial general intelligence

The story of the 'race' to artificial general intelligence benefits hyperscalers and their shareholders by shifting attention away from the social risks.

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

#ElNiño is an early warning signal for a world already under acute stress. It's a systemic shock that disrupts weather, food, health, infrastructure and power systems at once. As explained in @weforum.org this week, we know the pathways: inaction is indefensible. www.weforum.org/stories/2026...

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 29/05/2026

Washington’s designation of Brazil’s #PCC and #CV as terrorist groups may hit far beyond the gangs. It raises sanctions and compliance risks for banks and firms, pressures Lula on crime and sovereignty, and gives Flávio Bolsonaro a temporary political win. www.americasquarterly.org/article/braz...

americasquarterly.org

Brazil’s Gangs in Trump’s Crosshairs

The possible designation of Brazil's PCC and CV as foreign terrorist organizations would carry consequences for banks, companies and politics.

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

#Desmatamento e #violência são problemas paralelos que compartilham um endereço. Proteger florestas é estratégia de segurança. Com @estadaolink.bsky.social www.estadao.com.br/opiniao/espa...

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

Lula’s meeting Trump today armed with a (nearly) approved #critical-minerals and #rare-earths law. It was approved by the Lower House and now goes to Senate. It offers tax incentives but also calls for a council to ensure more oversight. www1.folha.uol.com.br/internaciona...

www1.folha.uol.com.br

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

The end of an unusually durable unipolar moment isn’t monocausal but the product of at least seven concurrent shocks. What follows isn’t tidy multipolarity but “variable geometry”: shifting coalitions opening space for middle powers to rewire geoeconomics. www.weforum.org/stories/2026...

weforum.org

7 reasons the old order broke — and how it might be repaired

The era of a single superpower has ended, replaced by a crowded and competitive landscape of influential nations. Future stability requires a negotiated patchwork of cooperation involving middle power...

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

Global demand for critical #minerals, used to build drones and electric cars, is surging, setting of a new wave of criminality in the world’s largest rainforest. Spoke to @nytimes.com about some of our latest findings in the #Amazon at @igarapeorg.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2026/05/03/w...

nytimes.com

Illegal Miners Loot Amazon Rainforest for Critical Minerals

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 18/04/2026

A guerra no #Irã tem um alto preço #ambiental, mas pode acelerar a transição para energias #renováveis e soluções positivas para a #natureza. Discutimos os custos e benefícios em um artigo com Johan Rockström, Carlos Nobre e Lourenço Bustani na #ilustrissima. www1.folha.uol.com.br/ilustrissima...

000

Reposted by Robert Muggah

The British Academy @britishacademy.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

In the latest discussion paper in our Global (Dis)Order joint programme with @carnegieendowment.org, @muggah.bsky.social analyses the political importance of responding to perceived insecurity in an environment where organised crime is increasingly influencing elections and democracy.

122

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

🚨Multiple Russian submarines were detected spying on underwater cables and pipelines in and around UK waters while the world was distracted with Iran. #SecDev has tracked the spread of hybrid tactics across Europe over the last year. @mishaglenny.bsky.social flashnote.secdev.com/p/severed-co...

flashnote.secdev.com

Severed connections

A string of disruptions to undersea cables in the Baltic and South China and Red Seas has heightened concerns over the security of critical infrastructure.

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

#Pakistan and #China brokered the 11th hour truce. But this is an unstable "pause" and escalation is likely. #Israel is outraged, #Iran may overplay its hand, and the #US gun is cocked. Worst case scenario avoided, but this is far from done. Spoke to @usatoday.com. www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...

usatoday.com

Why Pakistan and China brokered a fragile Iran ceasefire

Pakistan is entangled in a conflict with Afghanistan. China is the U.S.'s chief global rival. The two nations emerged as unlikely but effective mediators.

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

The #US’s possible designation of #Brazil's #PCC and #CV as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs) would carry consequences not just for criminal organizations, but for banks, companies, and national politics in an election year. americasquarterly.org/article/braz...

americasquarterly.org

Brazil’s Gangs in Trump’s Crosshairs

The possible designation of Brazil's PCC and CV as foreign terrorist organizations would carry consequences for banks, companies and politics.

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

The #Iran war is (re)teaching us geography. It’s a reminder that #chokepoints are maritime, subsea, mineral, digital and climatic. The corridor targeted today may be the supply chain failure or energy crisis felt on the other side of the world tomorrow. #WEF. www.weforum.org/stories/2026...

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 25/03/2026

O #Brasil é um dos países mais vulneráveis ao clima. Uma revisão sistemática de mais de 20 mil projeções climáticas brasileiras encontrou riscos severos em todos os seis biomas do país. @valoreconomico.bsky.social valor.globo.com/google/amp/o...

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

A month into the biggest US war since Iraq and there’s no clear strategy, exit, and clear “win”. Despite the 5 day pause, the #Iran war is widening—and starting to run itself. Our new @secdev.bsky.social note finds that escalation is still the most likely path: flashnote.secdev.com/p/escalation...

flashnote.secdev.com

Escalation risks in the U.S.-Israel-Iran war

A game-theoretic assessment suggests the likeliest outcome is a war that gets worse without anyone quite deciding to make it so

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 23/03/2026

#Starlink is reshaping wars, uprisings, and organized crime - with almost no oversight. Adversaries and criminal networks are already exploiting that gap. With @mishaglenny.bsky.social in #foreignpolicy foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/20/s...

foreignpolicy.com

Starlink Has Privatized Geopolitics

From Ukraine to Iran, Elon Musk’s service has become an arbiter of foreign policy.

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

Lula! captures not just the applause but the grind, showing how Lula’s political odyssey became inseparable from Brazil’s own. With Brazil heading into a pivotal 2026 election, the story it tells feels less like history than prologue. My latest for @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/9f7b...

ft.com

Lula! How Brazil made him — and he remade Brazil

Richard Lapper’s richly rewarding biography charts his route from firebrand to pragmatic president

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

Brazil feeds the world, holds 60% of the Amazon and is home to 12% of all fresh water — yet is one of the most climate-exposed nations on Earth. A risk concealed by lobbies who externalize costs onto those with no voice. Latest with @Mongabay: news.mongabay.com/2026/03/braz...

news.mongabay.com

Brazil is both the world's environmental treasure and its most exposed victim (commentary)

In May 2024, floodwaters submerged much of Porto Alegre. Brazil’s fourth-largest city lost bridges, hospitals, and months of economic output. Hundreds died. The images briefly commanded global attenti...

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

The #Iran war's #economic shockwave is global — but the pain isn't equal. #Asia imports 80%+ of Gulf oil. #India, #Bangladesh, #Africa can't buffer the hit. Higher food, fuel, fertilizer costs land hardest in the Global South who pay a bill for a war it didn't start. www.weforum.org/stories/2026...

weforum.org

The global price tag of war in the Middle East

The Iran war’s cascading economic fallout is radiating well beyond the Persian Gulf and the wider Middle East, reshaping markets and supply chains potentially for years to come.

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

#Brazil is the world’s breadbasket. It grows over a third of the world's coffee, almost two third of all soy exports, and is the second corn exporter. It imports 85% of its fertilizer — 40% through Hormuz. The harvest crunch hits in September. www.reuters.com/business/bra...

reuters.com

Brazil sounds alarm on fertilizers as price spike spurs cheaper alternatives

Brazil could face fertilizer supply problems if the conflict in the Middle East does not ease soon, the nation's farm minister said, criticizing sellers for sharp increases in ‌local urea prices as a...

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 11/02/2026

A corrida por #IA não é sobre chips — é sobre poder. Quem controla energia, minerais, data centers e regras globais controla o jogo. Mas a pressa por #AGI acelera riscos. Quando velocidade vence cautela, a conta chega. #ConversationBrasil theconversation.com/analise-como...

theconversation.com

Análise: como a Inteligência Artificial está mudando o equilíbrio global de poder

A IA já está remodelando a ordem global por meio das cadeias internacionais de suprimentos, da política industrial, dos mercados de trabalho, do planejamento energético e do espaço informacional

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 11/02/2026

#Climate & #nature loss aren’t just environmental issues — they’re defining #security risks of the 21st century. They fuel #food and #energy shocks, drive #migration, and intensify conflict over #water and #land. We’re still underpricing the danger. #Mongabay news.mongabay.com/2026/02/tipp...

020

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

A #IA militar está remodelando os campos de batalha, de #Gaza à #Ucrânia. Ela já está integrada a sistemas de apoio à decisão e está borrando os limites da responsabilidade humana. Falei hoje à noite com a #Globonews sobre por que isso importa. youtube.com/watch?v=O2c4...

youtube.com

IA e corrida armamentista digital

YouTube video by globonews

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 02/02/2026

#Haiti isn’t just facing a monumental crime wave. It’s experiencing criminal governance. Gang coalitions control territory, tax residents, run markets, and fill the vacuum left by a stalled political transition with no elected leaders. americasquarterly.org/article/hait...

americasquarterly.org

Haiti’s Political Crisis Deepens Amid a Slide Into Criminal Governance

Confrontation on the Transitional Presidential Council is not only about leadership, but about whether a future transition can reduce the influence of armed groups.

000

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 04/01/2026

The US raid risks normalizing cross-border “law enforcement” grabs—setting a precedent Moscow and Beijing can copy. Russia could cite it for moves against Ukrainian leaders; China could frame ops against Taiwan as policing, not war. Spoke to @aljazeera.com www.instagram.com/reel/DTEVwjD...

131

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 04/01/2026

2026 could make or break Europe: Ukraine escalation, a tougher US, fragile and populist politics and climate shocks loom — pushing the #EU toward deeper integration or dangerous fragmentation. New from #ParliamentMagazine www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article...

theparliamentmagazine.eu

What will make or break the EU in 2026?

Last year radically transformed Europe, as Russia continued its war in Ukraine and the US reneged on longstanding commitments to the continent.

020

Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 22/12/2025

Chile’s runoff win for hardliner Kast signals a wider shift: across Latin America, organized #crime is reshaping #democracy. Even where violence falls, fear drives voters toward “iron fist” politics—trading rights for the promise of control. #SecDev flashnote.secdev.com/p/the-ballot...

flashnote.secdev.com

The Ballot and the Bullet

Across Latin America, organised crime is not just killing people, it is also killing democracy

110