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Robert Muggah

@muggah.bsky.social
308 followers 140 following 227 posts

Co-founder of Igarapé Institute, SecDev, and Bioverse | Geopolitics, security, technology, cities and nature enthusiast | TED speaker | Lancet Commission | Bosch Academy | Author of Terra Incognita | SuperNature | robertmuggah.org

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Reposted by Robert Muggah
Mongabay @mongabay.com · 28/09/2026
[Commentary] Environmental crimes like illegal logging & mining down climate action by exploiting nature for profit. @muggah.bsky.social & Ilona Szabó de Carvalho argue that halting these crimes requires tracking profits across the full supply chain, from extraction site to corporate offices.
mongabay.cc
To tackle environmental crime, track profits through the whole supply chain (commentary)
The world has spent a decade trying to put a price on nature. Forests have become carbon sinks, while wetlands are increasingly described as natural infrastructure. Biodiversity is also being drawn…
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Environmental #crime is among the world’s most lucrative illicit markets, but it’s also under-studied. Estimates suggest it generates upwards $280 billion a year in profits with social costs of between $1-2 trillion a year. Our latest with @mongabay.com news.mongabay.com/2026/09/to-t...
news.mongabay.com
To tackle environmental crime, track profits through the whole supply chain (commentary)
The world has spent a decade trying to put a price on nature. Forests have become carbon sinks, while wetlands are increasingly described as natural infrastructure. Biodiversity is also being drawn in...
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
la plus grande partie de l’Histoire, la guerre est restée circonscrite par la géographie. La cyberguerre a fait voler ce frontière en éclat. L'avènement de l'IA a fait croître les cyber-risques de manière exponentielle. Mon article avex @letemps.ch www.letemps.ch/opinions/deb...
letemps.ch
Quand la guerre n’a plus de ligne de front - Le Temps
OPINION. La cyberguerre transforme à la fois le lieu du conflit et ses participants, écrit Robert Muggah, cofondateur de l’institut Igarapé, laboratoire de réflexion brésilien; le nouveau champ de bat...
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Seductive as it may be, Bukeleism is unlikely to work in Brazil. The #PCC and the #CV are far more sophisticated than El Savador’s extortionists and their (transnational) businesses much harder to track and disrupt. Spoke to @economist.com. www.economist.com/the-americas...
economist.com
Brazil’s gangsters: less murder, more money
Crime is softer, but it affects more Brazilians than ever before
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
As conditions have worsened, #Haiti’s brigades and gangs have joined an arms race. Spoke at length to the #washingtonpost about what’s at stake. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...
washingtonpost.com
They formed to fight Haiti’s gangs. Now they’re an obstacle to peace.
As a U.S.-backed, U.N.-authorized force attempts to restore security, “self-defense brigades” pose a unique challenge.
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
There’s a rising perception that U.S. security policy toward Brazil has become entangled in politics. I told the #nytimes it falls short of a rupture but is generating heightened mistrust. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/12/w...
nytimes.com
Visa Issue Threatens U.S.-Brazil Cooperation on Crime
Officials say the Trump administration is blocking some of Brazil’s efforts to expand cooperation on fighting transnational crime.
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Reposted by Robert Muggah
Forum on the Arms Trade @forumarmstrade.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
9/ @muggah.bsky.social flashnote.secdev.com/p/ukraines-w...
flashnote.secdev.com
Ukraine's war: deeper, wider, closer
Heavier Russian strikes on Ukraine, deeper Ukrainian attacks inside Russia and mounting sabotage across NATO Europe: an assessment of the next 30 days.
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Reposted by Robert Muggah
Project Syndicate @projectsyndicate.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
The Iran war has narrowed the political space for climate negotiations. But geopolitical volatility need not derail the energy transition, argue Igarapé Institutes' @muggah.bsky.social, @uspoficial.bsky.social’s Carlos Nobre, and @pik-potsdam.bsky.social’s Johan Rockström. bit.ly/4r75VEJ
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
The Canada–US relationship has entered its most serious confrontation in generations. The likeliest outcome through the end of the year remains a harsher economic conflict rather than a security crisis. #secdev flashnote.secdev.com/p/canada-and...
flashnote.secdev.com
Canada and America: continental drift
Coercion over trade is spreading into questions of sovereignty. Continental defence is the last part of the relationship still holding.
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
How Trump's foreign policy is changing the world order. I told #USAToday that Trump is extracting more from American power today while giving other countries reasons to depend on it less tomorrow. www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...
usatoday.com
Allies into foes. Foes into allies. What's behind Trump's world order assault?
President Trump's transactional foreign policy is challenging traditional alliances and global power dynamics, for good and ill. Where does it lead?
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
The Russia-Ukraine war has entered one of its most dangerous phases since the full-scale invasion in February 2022. Several trends are now converging. Our latest analysis at #SecDev considers escalatory dynamics in Ukraine and more widely across Europe. flashnote.secdev.com/p/ukraines-w...
flashnote.secdev.com
Ukraine's war: deeper, wider, closer
Heavier Russian strikes on Ukraine, deeper Ukrainian attacks inside Russia and mounting sabotage across NATO Europe: an assessment of the next 30 days.
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
There are good reasons to be skeptical about how much impact #Meta’s latest $17b settlement will have on the tech giant. The bigger story is not the money. It’s that governments are beginning to regulate how social media platforms are actually built. theconversation.com/the-product-...
theconversation.com
The product is the problem: Why Meta’s $17 billion settlement matters beyond America
The agreement could mark a turning point for public policies on social media precisely because it addresses the architecture of the platforms themselves.
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Washington has long eyed #Brazil’s critical minerals. But as US-Brazil diplomatic relations wobble over trade and political disputes, the Serra Verde offtake arrangement weakens Brasília’s negotiating power. Spoke to #FT about the situation. www.ft.com/content/a404...
ft.com
The old asbestos town at the heart of the rare earths race
Brazil’s first facility for the minerals is a key component in US plans to break free from Chinese dominance
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
While the Bukele model promises quick wins through heavy policing and mass incarceration, #CostaRica (like Brazil, Colombia, etc) faces a different challenge than #ElSalvador, with transnational criminal organizations now deeply embedded in the country. Spoke to #WSJ. www.wsj.com/world/americ...
wsj.com
Runaway Drug Violence Sets Off a Political Earthquake in Costa Rica
A bastion of democratic stability grapples with the fallout of a surge in narcotics trafficking.
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
For much of the postwar era, US power rested on predictability. Deals survived elections. Firms invested because rules endured. Allies trusted US guarantees. Even the dollar benefited from faith in American institutions. That foundation is now cracking. flashnote.secdev.com/p/canadas-mi...
flashnote.secdev.com
Canada’s middle power moment
Canada suspended trade talks with Washington rather than accept terms it judged unfair. Other middle powers are studying the result.
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
“Brazil’s rare earths are significant because they sit at the intersection of resource nationalism, energy transition demand, Western supply-chain diversification and competition with China’s rare earth dominance.” @apnews.com apnews.com/article/braz...
apnews.com
The US and others turn to Brazil for rare earths, raising environmental concerns
Brazil is becoming a key global battleground for rare earth minerals that are crucial for renewable energy and technology.
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Reposted by Robert Muggah
Mongabay @mongabay.com · 31/07/2026
[Commentary] Record gold prices are driving illicit mining across the Amazon, devastating forests, rivers and Indigenous territories. In a new op-ed, researcher @muggah.bsky.social argues central banks and major buyers must enforce stricter supply chain traceability to stop laundered gold.
mongabay.cc
The global gold rush consuming the Amazon (commentary)
In November 2025, Brazilian authorities, supported by Interpol, disabled 277 dredges used for illegal gold mining along the Madeira River. The machinery was valued at about $6.8 million. The…
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
The #AGI "race" btn the US and China is the wrong story. Power will go to those who control compute, energy, data centers, talent and distribution — not necessarily those with the biggest baddest model. : www.weforum.org/stories/2026...
weforum.org
The coming disorder over artificial general intelligence
The story of the 'race' to artificial general intelligence benefits hyperscalers and their shareholders by shifting attention away from the social risks.
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
#ElNiño is an early warning signal for a world already under acute stress. It's a systemic shock that disrupts weather, food, health, infrastructure and power systems at once. As explained in @weforum.org this week, we know the pathways: inaction is indefensible. www.weforum.org/stories/2026...
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Washington’s designation of Brazil’s #PCC and #CV as terrorist groups may hit far beyond the gangs. It raises sanctions and compliance risks for banks and firms, pressures Lula on crime and sovereignty, and gives Flávio Bolsonaro a temporary political win. www.americasquarterly.org/article/braz...
americasquarterly.org
Brazil’s Gangs in Trump’s Crosshairs
The possible designation of Brazil's PCC and CV as foreign terrorist organizations would carry consequences for banks, companies and politics.
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
#Desmatamento e #violência são problemas paralelos que compartilham um endereço. Proteger florestas é estratégia de segurança. Com @estadaolink.bsky.social www.estadao.com.br/opiniao/espa...
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
A nova diplomacia mineral: Brasil e Canadá podem liderar uma cadeia mais justa e sustentável. exame.com/esg/a-nova-d...
exame.com
A nova diplomacia mineral: Brasil e Canadá podem liderar uma cadeia mais justa e sustentável
A rastreabilidade da cadeia produtiva dos minerais críticos deixou de ser diferencial ético e se tornou pré-requisito de mercado
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Lula’s meeting Trump today armed with a (nearly) approved #critical-minerals and #rare-earths law. It was approved by the Lower House and now goes to Senate. It offers tax incentives but also calls for a council to ensure more oversight. www1.folha.uol.com.br/internaciona...
www1.folha.uol.com.br
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
The end of an unusually durable unipolar moment isn’t monocausal but the product of at least seven concurrent shocks. What follows isn’t tidy multipolarity but “variable geometry”: shifting coalitions opening space for middle powers to rewire geoeconomics. www.weforum.org/stories/2026...
weforum.org
7 reasons the old order broke — and how it might be repaired
The era of a single superpower has ended, replaced by a crowded and competitive landscape of influential nations. Future stability requires a negotiated patchwork of cooperation involving middle power...
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Global demand for critical #minerals, used to build drones and electric cars, is surging, setting of a new wave of criminality in the world’s largest rainforest. Spoke to @nytimes.com about some of our latest findings in the #Amazon at @igarapeorg.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2026/05/03/w...
nytimes.com
Illegal Miners Loot Amazon Rainforest for Critical Minerals
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
A guerra no #Irã tem um alto preço #ambiental, mas pode acelerar a transição para energias #renováveis e soluções positivas para a #natureza. Discutimos os custos e benefícios em um artigo com Johan Rockström, Carlos Nobre e Lourenço Bustani na #ilustrissima. www1.folha.uol.com.br/ilustrissima...
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
The #Amazon is closer to a tipping point than we think, and #environmentalcrime is pushing it faster. I joined Carlos Nobre, one of the world’s leading Amazon scientists, and Ilona Szabo to unpack the risks and responses in @mongabay.com. @igarapeorg.bsky.social news.mongabay.com/2026/04/the-...
news.mongabay.com
The Amazon's silent crime crisis (commentary)
The Amazon is approaching a dangerous threshold. Long understood as the world’s largest tropical forest and a critical regulator of the global climate, its future is increasingly shaped by the converg...
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Reposted by Robert Muggah
The British Academy @britishacademy.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
In the latest discussion paper in our Global (Dis)Order joint programme with @carnegieendowment.org, @muggah.bsky.social analyses the political importance of responding to perceived insecurity in an environment where organised crime is increasingly influencing elections and democracy.
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
🚨Multiple Russian submarines were detected spying on underwater cables and pipelines in and around UK waters while the world was distracted with Iran. #SecDev has tracked the spread of hybrid tactics across Europe over the last year. @mishaglenny.bsky.social flashnote.secdev.com/p/severed-co...
flashnote.secdev.com
Severed connections
A string of disruptions to undersea cables in the Baltic and South China and Red Seas has heightened concerns over the security of critical infrastructure.
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
#Pakistan and #China brokered the 11th hour truce. But this is an unstable "pause" and escalation is likely. #Israel is outraged, #Iran may overplay its hand, and the #US gun is cocked. Worst case scenario avoided, but this is far from done. Spoke to @usatoday.com. www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...
usatoday.com
Why Pakistan and China brokered a fragile Iran ceasefire
Pakistan is entangled in a conflict with Afghanistan. China is the U.S.'s chief global rival. The two nations emerged as unlikely but effective mediators.
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
The #US’s possible designation of #Brazil's #PCC and #CV as foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs) would carry consequences not just for criminal organizations, but for banks, companies, and national politics in an election year. americasquarterly.org/article/braz...
americasquarterly.org
Brazil’s Gangs in Trump’s Crosshairs
The possible designation of Brazil's PCC and CV as foreign terrorist organizations would carry consequences for banks, companies and politics.
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
The #Iran war is (re)teaching us geography. It’s a reminder that #chokepoints are maritime, subsea, mineral, digital and climatic. The corridor targeted today may be the supply chain failure or energy crisis felt on the other side of the world tomorrow. #WEF. www.weforum.org/stories/2026...
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
O #Brasil é um dos países mais vulneráveis ao clima. Uma revisão sistemática de mais de 20 mil projeções climáticas brasileiras encontrou riscos severos em todos os seis biomas do país. @valoreconomico.bsky.social valor.globo.com/google/amp/o...
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
A month into the biggest US war since Iraq and there’s no clear strategy, exit, and clear “win”. Despite the 5 day pause, the #Iran war is widening—and starting to run itself. Our new @secdev.bsky.social note finds that escalation is still the most likely path: flashnote.secdev.com/p/escalation...
flashnote.secdev.com
Escalation risks in the U.S.-Israel-Iran war
A game-theoretic assessment suggests the likeliest outcome is a war that gets worse without anyone quite deciding to make it so
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
#Starlink is reshaping wars, uprisings, and organized crime - with almost no oversight. Adversaries and criminal networks are already exploiting that gap. With @mishaglenny.bsky.social in #foreignpolicy foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/20/s...
foreignpolicy.com
Starlink Has Privatized Geopolitics
From Ukraine to Iran, Elon Musk’s service has become an arbiter of foreign policy.
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Lula! captures not just the applause but the grind, showing how Lula’s political odyssey became inseparable from Brazil’s own. With Brazil heading into a pivotal 2026 election, the story it tells feels less like history than prologue. My latest for @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/9f7b...
ft.com
Lula! How Brazil made him — and he remade Brazil
Richard Lapper’s richly rewarding biography charts his route from firebrand to pragmatic president
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Brazil feeds the world, holds 60% of the Amazon and is home to 12% of all fresh water — yet is one of the most climate-exposed nations on Earth. A risk concealed by lobbies who externalize costs onto those with no voice. Latest with @Mongabay: news.mongabay.com/2026/03/braz...
news.mongabay.com
Brazil is both the world's environmental treasure and its most exposed victim (commentary)
In May 2024, floodwaters submerged much of Porto Alegre. Brazil’s fourth-largest city lost bridges, hospitals, and months of economic output. Hundreds died. The images briefly commanded global attenti...
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
The #Iran war's #economic shockwave is global — but the pain isn't equal. #Asia imports 80%+ of Gulf oil. #India, #Bangladesh, #Africa can't buffer the hit. Higher food, fuel, fertilizer costs land hardest in the Global South who pay a bill for a war it didn't start. www.weforum.org/stories/2026...
weforum.org
The global price tag of war in the Middle East
The Iran war’s cascading economic fallout is radiating well beyond the Persian Gulf and the wider Middle East, reshaping markets and supply chains potentially for years to come.
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
#Brazil is the world’s breadbasket. It grows over a third of the world's coffee, almost two third of all soy exports, and is the second corn exporter. It imports 85% of its fertilizer — 40% through Hormuz. The harvest crunch hits in September. www.reuters.com/business/bra...
reuters.com
Brazil sounds alarm on fertilizers as price spike spurs cheaper alternatives
Brazil could face fertilizer supply problems if the conflict in the Middle East does not ease soon, ​the nation's farm minister said, criticizing sellers for sharp increases in ‌local urea prices as a...
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
WHO warns of #nuclear worst-case scenario as Iran conflict escalates: "The consequences will last for decades." Staff are preparing — and hoping it never happens. www.politico.eu/article/were...
politico.eu
‘Worst-case scenario’: Middle East nuclear concerns haunt top health officials
The World Health Organization is being “vigilant” for any kind of atomic threat, the regional director for the eastern Mediterranean tells POLITICO.
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
O Brasil atualizou sua doutrina de defesa, mas continua pensando no inimigo errado. Embora a #guerra convencional seja um risco real, as verdadeiras ameaças vêm de redes #criminosas, ataques #cibernéticos e crises #climáticas. Estamos armados para ontem. theconversation.com/politica-nac...
theconversation.com
Política Nacional de Defesa: Brasil atualizou sua doutrina de segurança, mas está resolvendo o problema errado
Brasília passou 2024 e 2025 renovando sua doutrina de segurança nacional. O resultado foi uma capa do século XXI para um livro do século XX — e um plano mal adaptado às ameaças que se aproximam do paí...
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
A corrida por #IA não é sobre chips — é sobre poder. Quem controla energia, minerais, data centers e regras globais controla o jogo. Mas a pressa por #AGI acelera riscos. Quando velocidade vence cautela, a conta chega. #ConversationBrasil theconversation.com/analise-como...
theconversation.com
Análise: como a Inteligência Artificial está mudando o equilíbrio global de poder
A IA já está remodelando a ordem global por meio das cadeias internacionais de suprimentos, da política industrial, dos mercados de trabalho, do planejamento energético e do espaço informacional
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
#Climate & #nature loss aren’t just environmental issues — they’re defining #security risks of the 21st century. They fuel #food and #energy shocks, drive #migration, and intensify conflict over #water and #land. We’re still underpricing the danger. #Mongabay news.mongabay.com/2026/02/tipp...
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
A #IA militar está remodelando os campos de batalha, de #Gaza à #Ucrânia. Ela já está integrada a sistemas de apoio à decisão e está borrando os limites da responsabilidade humana. Falei hoje à noite com a #Globonews sobre por que isso importa. youtube.com/watch?v=O2c4...
youtube.com
IA e corrida armamentista digital
YouTube video by globonews
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
#Haiti isn’t just facing a monumental crime wave. It’s experiencing criminal governance. Gang coalitions control territory, tax residents, run markets, and fill the vacuum left by a stalled political transition with no elected leaders. americasquarterly.org/article/hait...
americasquarterly.org
Haiti’s Political Crisis Deepens Amid a Slide Into Criminal Governance
Confrontation on the Transitional Presidential Council is not only about leadership, but about whether a future transition can reduce the influence of armed groups.
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
#EU-#Mercosur deal finally signed. We’ll be seeing many more FTAs as the rest of the world seeks to derisk from the U.S. www.reuters.com/world/americ...
reuters.com
EU states back record South America trade deal after 25 years
EU states gave a provisional go-ahead on Friday for the bloc to sign its largest ever free trade accord with South American group Mercosur, more than 25 years since talks began and after months of wra...
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
The US raid risks normalizing cross-border “law enforcement” grabs—setting a precedent Moscow and Beijing can copy. Russia could cite it for moves against Ukrainian leaders; China could frame ops against Taiwan as policing, not war. Spoke to @aljazeera.com www.instagram.com/reel/DTEVwjD...
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
2026 could make or break Europe: Ukraine escalation, a tougher US, fragile and populist politics and climate shocks loom — pushing the #EU toward deeper integration or dangerous fragmentation. New from #ParliamentMagazine www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article...
theparliamentmagazine.eu
What will make or break the EU in 2026?
Last year radically transformed Europe, as Russia continued its war in Ukraine and the US reneged on longstanding commitments to the continent.
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Chile’s runoff win for hardliner Kast signals a wider shift: across Latin America, organized #crime is reshaping #democracy. Even where violence falls, fear drives voters toward “iron fist” politics—trading rights for the promise of control. #SecDev flashnote.secdev.com/p/the-ballot...
flashnote.secdev.com
The Ballot and the Bullet
Across Latin America, organised crime is not just killing people, it is also killing democracy
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Robert Muggah @muggah.bsky.social · 21/12/2025
A política de segurança, que tem no centro um estado de exceçãopermanente, tornou-se um espetáculo, uma fusão de justiça criminal, reality show e propaganda digital. @valoreconomico.bsky.social valor.globo.com/google/amp/o...
valor.globo.com
Como o efeito Bukele está remodelando a segurança nas Américas
A política de segurança, que tem no centro um estado de exceçãopermanente, tornou-se um espetáculo, uma fusão de justiça criminal, reality show e propaganda digital
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