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msobel.bsky.social

@msobel.bsky.social
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Mark Carney &. Canada may not be able to escape the pull of the US. But it’s perfectly reasonable for Carney/Canada to diversify at the margins where possible, let alone now when Trump (not Americans) treats our great and loved friends to the north with such disdain & disrespect.
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Bill Dudley joined me, with Susan McLaughlin & Kurt Lewis, to discuss the latest FOMC, Warsh's tenure to date, rate outlook & task forces (inc. balance sheet). Thanks to Bill especially for leading this joint OMFIF/Bretton Woods Committee discussion. 👇 www.omfif.org/videos/septe...
omfif.org
September FOMC Watch - OMFIF
William Dudley, chair of the Bretton Woods Committee and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, joins Mark Sobel, OMFIF’s chief economist and vice chair, for a joint OMFIF-Bretton Woods Co...
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Friday, Sept 18 at 9 am EDT/2pm London, I'm hosting Bill Dudley to discuss US monetary policy, the September FOMC and the 5 task forces in a joint OMFIF/Bretton Woods Committee event. Sign up below.👇 www.omfif.org/meetings/sep...
omfif.org
September FOMC Watch - OMFIF
William Dudley, chair of the Bretton Woods Committee and former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, joins OMFIF
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
My thoughts on Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole: a welcome coming to terms with economic data though maintaining optionality, the tedious forward guidance/reaction function debate, AI pondering and avoiding the US Treasury elephant in the room. www.omfif.org/2026/09/jack...
omfif.org
Jackson Hole 2026: Warsh avoids the elephant in the room - OMFIF
Jackson Hole was an opportunity for Kevin Warsh to speak frankly. He began to do so, though he avoided the elephant in the room
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Belatedly, my thoughts on Japan's ineffective FX intervention & the unusual US support.👇 HINT: This intervention & FIMA debates are band-aids. www.omfif.org/2026/08/japa...
omfif.org
Japan's yen intervention and unusual US support - OMFIF
Market commentators are atwitter debating Japan’s foreign exchange market intervention and the US’ unusual participation
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
The IMF released its External Sector Report & The Economist carried a Gopinath, Gourinchas (2 IMF stalwarts) & Rey essay. Both give short shrift to the key impact of exchange rate valuations on global imbalances. The IMF needs to take XRs more seriously. 👇 www.omfif.org/2026/07/imf-...
omfif.org
IMF and exchange rates: a work in progress - OMFIF
The publication this week of the International Monetary Fund’s 2026 External Sector Report and an essay by Gita Gopinath
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David Wessel @davidmwessel.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
A sizable, sensible downward revision to official measures of foreign direct investment in the US via Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti @brookings.edu www.brookings.edu/articles/dow...
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
I prepared piece below on RMB internationalization & reserve currency prospects in the 2026 OMFIF Global Public Investor report. I question if state-led RMB internationalization is viable & see internationalization gains as spotty & record mixed. 👇 www.omfif.org/2026/07/is-c...
omfif.org
Is China prepared to give up control? - OMFIF
Progress towards creating a fully internationalised renminbi is likely to remain modest and constrained. The record is spotty.
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Who knows when the Treasury FX Report will be issued. The RMB is undervalued & China’s current account surplus massive. But if Treasury has thoughts about designating China a manipulator, it would be highly unwise, even if a case could be made. 👇 www.omfif.org/2026/07/us-w...
omfif.org
US would be unwise to designate China currency manipulators - OMFIF
Amid a worldwide focus on global imbalances and Chinese exports, whether the Treasury might designate China for currency manipulation
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Is Kevin Warsh a hawk, chickenhawk or dove? The post-FOMC "hawk" narrative woefully jumps the gun & may be wrong!👇 www.omfif.org/2026/06/hawk...
omfif.org
Hawk or dove? It’s too early to judge Warsh’s position  - OMFIF
Kevin Warsh’s first press conference as chair of the Federal Reserve – he’s a hawk, orthodox, not the president’s sock puppet.
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
A great honor for me/OMFIF to host Randy Quarles & Claudia Sahm to discuss yest's FOMC meeting. Topics: Kevin Warsh's first presser, is the Fed getting back to 2%, Claudia/Randy dots, whither forward guidance, balance sheet policy, task forces & more. www.omfif.org/videos/june-...
omfif.org
June FOMC meeting: the outlook for US monetary policy - OMFIF
Following the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Claudia Sahm and Randy Quarles join OMFIF’s Mark Sobel to discuss the policy outcomes and outlook for US monetary policy. The meeting assesses...
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Huge thanks to Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist at Corpay Currency Research, for his wonderful commentary -- "The US Treasury market is living on borrowed time". www.omfif.org/2026/06/us-t...
omfif.org
US Treasury market is living on borrowed time - OMFIF
The US Treasury market has long served as the world’s financial anchor. That reputation for placidity is becoming harder to sustain.
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Please join a post-FOMC virtual session on Thursday, June 18, 10 am EDT/3 pm London with OMFIF's esteemed guests, Randy Quarles and Claudia Sahm. Sign up below.👇 www.omfif.org/meetings/jun...
omfif.org
June FOMC meeting: the outlook for US monetary policy - OMFIF
Following the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Claudia Sahm and Randy Quarles join OMFIF’s Mark Sobel to discuss the policy outcomes and outlook for US monetary policy. The meeting assesses...
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
A multipolar currency system. Does it waddle and quack like a duck? Is a zebra a white animal with black stripes or a black animal with white stripes? Does one exist?👇 www.omfif.org/2026/06/what...
omfif.org
What does a multipolar currency system actually look like? - OMFIF
Financial media, academic work and analyst reports are replete with references to a multipolar international currency system. What is it?
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Deeply honored to have my piece on the G7 Summit and global imbalances included in: online.flippingbook.com/view/2646487... Thanks to the G7 Research Group/Toronto Univ. @g7_rg @GloGovMedia
online.flippingbook.com
G7 France: The Évian Summit
This interactive flipbook is created with FlippingBook, a service for streaming PDFs online. No download, no waiting. Open and start reading right away!
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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 07/06/2026
Every year there's around 200,000 Russian tourists who come to visit Italy. That's the same number as Japanese tourists and is up 90% from 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Europe talks tough, but actions speak louder than words. Just not good enough... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/four-chart...
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Are interest rates/term premia moving higher for good or is the latest rate surge a temporary flash in the pan? See below, with appearances from the "yips" & Roseanne Roseannadanna.👇 www.omfif.org/2026/05/bond...
omfif.org
Bond yield volatility: just ‘yips’ or the return of vigilantes? - OMFIF
Bond yields have jumped in recent weeks. But is this just usual volatility what Trump once called ‘yips’ or might it be the bond vigilantes
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
👍👍 Indeed. The CCRT was created in 2014 in response to a call by Treasury Secretary Jack Lew to provide debt relief to countries then hit by Ebola. www.reuters.com/article/busi...
reuters.com
U.S. urges IMF to cancel debt of Ebola-stricken countries
The United States on Tuesday proposed that the International Monetary Fund write off some $100 million in debt it is owed by Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone to free up more resources for those countr...
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Thanks to FTAV and Robin Wigglesworth for running the piece below on America putting the RMB back on the international agenda. Huge thanks as well to co-conspirators Brad Setser and Robin Brooks. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
America needs to put the renminbi back on the international agenda
‘Managed trade’ isn’t the answer
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
spot on.
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
Would a US Treasury Exchange Stabilization Fund or Federal Reserve "swap" with the UAE make any sense?👇 www.omfif.org/2026/05/us-u...
omfif.org
US-UAE swap would be political, not financial - OMFIF
‘Swaps, mops, fobs.’ These sardonic words came to mind after hearing stories of a possible swap between the US and United Arab Emirates.
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
The IMF can do more to help LIC/LMIC debt distressed countries by using its bully pulpit & setting the envelope through its DSAs to provide greater debt relief. It’s time to do so & help provide more fiscal space for reform. www.omfif.org/2026/04/imf-...
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
What to expect from the IMF at next week's Spring Meetings? My scenesetter. Perplexity, hand-wringing, confusion!👇 www.omfif.org/2026/04/dele...
omfif.org
Dazed delegates to IMF spring meetings wait in suspense - OMFIF
The International Monetary Fund-World Bank spring meetings, seeking to navigate their way through the shoals of a topsy-turvy global outlook.
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Huge thanks to Tara Hariharan, NWI Management, for joining me/OMFIF for a great podcast on the impact of the Iran war on investing in emerging markets as well as the asset class more generally.👋👋 www.omfif.org/podcast/the-...
omfif.org
The emerging markets asset class amid the Middle East energy shock - OMFIF
Tara Hariharan, managing director and head of research at NWI Management, joins Mark Sobel, chief economist and vice chair at OMFIF to discuss emerging market investing. They explore how to manage the...
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
Charles Collyns, former senior IMF official, examines whether the Fund's Article IV 2026 concluding mission statement on the US economy is too soft on its largest shareholder. Please read his analysis👇 You can judge his answer! Huge thanks to Charles. www.omfif.org/2026/03/is-t...
omfif.org
Is the IMF being too soft on its biggest shareholder? - OMFIF
The US and the IMF member with the largest share of board votes, no longer seems to believe in the rules-based, multilateral economic order
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Michael Pettis joined OMFIF/me to discuss China's growth model & challenges, the shocks it has undergone & why reliance on investment & macroeconomic policy caution will continue. 👇 Huge thanks to Michael Pettis for a fascinting and lively discussion. www.omfif.org/podcast/chin...
omfif.org
China's flailing growth model and challenges - OMFIF
Michael Pettis, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and co-author of Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace, joins Mark Sobe...
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Macron's G7 Presidency is emphasizing concrete commitments to tackle global imbalances and so is the Trump Admin for its G20 Presidency. We've seen this movie before. Expect lots of pomp & a nothingburger.👇 www.omfif.org/2026/03/glob...
omfif.org
Global imbalances: grandeur and a ‘nothingburger’ - OMFIF
Global imbalances emerged as a hot topic before and after the 2008 financial crisis when wide gaps between surplus and deficit
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
US Treasury's late January FX Report was on its face a snooze. No Sominex needed. BUT, it was actually an improved & richer report with consequential new findings & analysis. The FX community & officialdom should pay attention. I explain why below.👇 www.omfif.org/2026/02/us-t...
omfif.org
US Treasury Foreign Exchange Report: overhauled and improved - OMFIF
The US Treasury released its latest Foreign Exchange Report (FXR) in January 2026, receiving little fanfare as the report broke no new ground.
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
The day wouldn't be complete without yet another profound & insightful Kevin Warsh commentary. All kidding aside, Warsh's life is going to be very complicated and not just because of Trump.👇👇👇 www.omfif.org/2026/02/no-e...
omfif.org
No easy answers to questions facing Kevin Warsh - OMFIF
Kevin Warsh understands the Federal Reserve and monetary policy, and he undoubtedly has the credentials to be the next Fed chair.
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
Thanks to Robin Wigglesworth and FTAV. www.ft.com/content/0933...
ft.com
Termites are slowly feasting away at the foundations of the dollar’s dominance
Chomp chomp chomp
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
This is a gratuitous and mean-spirited comment that is not worthy of a Secretary of the Treasury and the dignity of the office.
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Ending Putin's barbaric war against Ukraine will expose Russia's economic ruin. That may be another reason for Putin to keep on fighting.👇 www.omfif.org/2026/01/puti...
omfif.org
Putin is wary of facing Russia’s ruined economic future - OMFIF
Most analysts rightly focus on geopolitical explanations. Humiliated by the demise of the Soviet Union and the loss of the cold war, Putin wants to restore the ‘Russian Empire’ and bolster his country...
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
A thoughtful and important post.
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 05/01/2026
Predicting FX markets is a fool's errand but here are 6 2026 FX observations. www.omfif.org/2026/01/outl...
omfif.org
Outlook 2026: Foreign exchange markets will be less exciting than in 2025 - OMFIF
Predicting foreign exchange markets is a fool’s errand, but it has nonetheless sprouted a cottage industry with analysts even audaciously offering pinpoint numerical forecasts conjuring up the fallacy...
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
Congrats to Gita Gopinath and Brent Neiman on their outstanding work! www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/b...
nytimes.com
Why Haven’t Trump’s Tariffs Had a Bigger Impact?
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
You wanna read a new (hopefully improved, thanks to very helpful comments from a bunch of very smart colleagues) version of paper called "The Political Economy of Shitcoins"? Of course you do. @tompepinsky.com & I are at your service. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
There are precious few organizations, let alone ones that exist in political milieu, that couldn't benefit from reform. But one shouldn't give succor to those who would throw the baby out with the bathwater.
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Reposted by @msobel.bsky.social
Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 02/01/2026
Once again, there is exactly <no> chance of the RMB rivaling or replacing either the dollar (or the euro) as the dominant international reserve currency, because Xi Jinping & 🇨🇳 policymakers are totally unwilling to reverse their macroeconomic policies to make this possible: bsky.app/profile/mcop...
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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 01/01/2026
Predictions for 2026: (i) the US will outgrow everyone, but the Dollar will fall; (ii) the Euro zone will resume its slide towards deflation; (iii) EM currencies will rally as the G10 EM-ifies; and (iv) the debasement trade will continue to roar ahead... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/prediction...
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 24/12/2025
Very well said!
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
Ukraine needs help in funding its military campaign as well as the basic costs of running a govt -- paying soldiers, pensions etc -- w/out resorting to money printing/hyperinflation. Trump is wrong to oppose the reparation loan. Europe will look lame, weak & pathetic if it doesn't go ahead now.
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
👍👍In the face of the greatest challenge to European security in decades, if Europe can't find a way to make the reparation loan, it will prove that Trump is totally right in stating that Europe is WEAK! It will put Ukraine at the mercy of the Trump Admin, a very bad outcome.
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
Due to unavoidable scheduling issues, this virtual session will now take place on Friday, December 12 at 10 a.m., EST Please sign up. omfif.org/meetings/dec...
omfif.org
December FOMC meeting: the outlook for US monetary policy - OMFIF
Donald Kohn, senior fellow in the economic studies program at the Brookings Institution, previously vice chair of the Federal Reserve, and Dennis Lockhart, who was president and CEO of the Federal Res...
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
To discuss the FOMC outcomes and US monetary/financial policy, Don Kohn, former Fed Vice-Chair, and Dennis Lockhart, ex-Atlanta Fed head, will join OMFIF on Thursday, December 11 at 10 am EST. Please sign up.👇 www.omfif.org/meetings/dec...
omfif.org
December FOMC meeting: the outlook for US monetary policy - OMFIF
Donald Kohn, senior fellow in the economic studies program at the Brookings Institution, previously vice chair of the Federal Reserve, and Dennis Lockhart, who was president and CEO of the Federal Res...
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 01/12/2025
Japanese MOF FX policy seems riddled in inconsistency. Jawboning & intervention — doing something for sake of doing something, rather than problem solving for super weak yen. www.omfif.org/2025/12/japa...
omfif.org
Japanese foreign exchange policy riddled in contradictions - OMFIF
The Japanese authorities are back at it. A new prime minister and finance minister are huffing and puffing about yen weakness and jawboning markets – including with threats to intervene. We’ve seen th...
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 28/11/2025
Given where we are the real issue is not the US. It is whether Europe will sign off on the "reparation" loan. Europe claims to be strong & united. Yet with its physical security challenged by Russia, it can't find the wherewithal to provide the loan due to Belgian financial concerns. Go figure.
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 28/11/2025
Absolutely spot on from Jay!
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
Ausgezeichnet! Bravo Kanzler!
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
An absolutely disgraceful embarrassment. Others should indeed express objections to US and boycott if needed.
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msobel.bsky.social @msobel.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
Despite the disgraceful treatment of S. Africa & G20 by USA, the moribund G20 is not dead. Ironically, the US 2026 Presidency could revive a slimmed down G20. Here's a roadmap.👇Will Trump seize it? Thanks to Global Governance Project/G20 Research Group. www.omfif.org/2025/11/back...
omfif.org
Back to the future for America’s G20 tenure - OMFIF
Thoughts on a US G20 presidency under Trump in 2026
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