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Dr Maria Shagina

@mshagina.bsky.social
2.4K followers 270 following 109 posts

Diamond-Brown Senior Research Fellow for Economic Sanctions, Standards and Strategy, IISS | Ex @FIIA_fi and UniZurich | Economic statecraft, sanctions & energy.

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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 29/01/2026
Excited to share my latest piece on American state capitalism and critical-mineral diplomacy, which now runs on three tracks: 🏈 “America First” deals; 🤝 Bilateral agreements; 🌍 Pax Silica, a coalition-of-capabilities framework. www.iiss.org/online-analy...
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
My final publication of the year is on supply-chain resilience as the backbone of economic security. Without resilient supply chains, no economic security, and thus no national security.
go.iiss.org
Supply-chain resilience: the foundation of economic security
Supply-chain resilience has moved from being a technical concern to the backbone of economic security. As pandemics, wars and export controls expose dangerous dependencies, Western governments are racing to map supply-chain vulnerabilities, rebuild economic resilience and rethink cooperation in an era of weaponised interdependence.
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
The US' growing intervention in corporate America signals a shift towards a more state-influenced capitalism–one that blends market power with political leverage, which resembles the 🇷🇺 model, where firms share profits in exchange for market access or protection. My take www.iiss.org/online-analy...
iiss.org
America’s quiet turn towards state capitalism
Washington’s growing intervention in corporate America signals a shift towards a more state-influenced capitalism – one that blends market power with political leverage.
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Reposted by Dr Maria Shagina
Jorge Liboreiro @jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
No, the EU won't impose 100% tariffs on China overnight as Donald Trump has demanded. Here's why.
euronews.com
Why the EU won't hit China with the 100% tariffs that Trump wants
Donald Trump's request for 100% tariffs on China is unlikely to gather the necessary support among European Union countries. #EuropeNews
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 13/07/2025
The recent US-China tit-for-tat over chip-design software and rare earths raises key strategic questions. Which export controls are non-negotiable and which can be used as leverage? How do US and Chinese strategic leverage compare? And how are chokepoints evolving? www.iiss.org/online-analy...
iiss.org
From national security to strategic leverage
As export controls evolve from national security tools to instruments of strategic leverage, the US–China strategic competition is entering a new, more transactional phase. The recent tit-for-tat over chip-design software and rare earths reveals a shifting geopolitical battleground defined by chokepoints, coalition-building, and the race to reduce dependencies.
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
Since 2019, China has been modernising its economic statecraft, beefing up one economic tool in particular – export controls. China’s recent use of export controls demonstrates the evolution of Beijing’s economic statecraft. www.iiss.org/online-analy...
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Reposted by Dr Maria Shagina
Christian von Soest @cvonsoest.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
"Druck auf #Putin: Haben die #Sanktionen #Russland geschadet?" Mit einigen Einschätzungen, mit @mshagina.bsky.social und Alexandra Prokopenko. Danke, Sabine Adler www.deutschlandfunk.de/druck-auf-pu...
deutschlandfunk.de
Druck auf Putin: Haben die Sanktionen Russland geschadet?
Seit dem Angriff auf die Ukraine im Februar 2022 hat der Westen mehr als ein Dutzend Sanktionspakete gegen Russland verhängt. Sind Folgen im Land spürbar?
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
China has been modernising its economic statecraft, beefing up one economic tool in particular – export controls. On the latest changes in China's use of export controls from me and my colleagues 👇 www.iiss.org/online-analy...
iiss.org
China’s use of export controls
In recent years, China has been modernising its economic statecraft and offensive toolkit, with particular attention paid to its export-control strategy.
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
Consider returning to Russia? Be prepared to pay for it. RU Avtovaz says Renault can buy back its majority stake if it pays $1.3 bn. Another bonanza for the Kremlin and Moscow is ready to leverage it: stricter demands for localization and tech transfers à la China. www.reuters.com/business/aut...
reuters.com
Renault's Russia buyback to cost at least $1.3 billion, says Russia's Avtovaz
Should French carmaker Renault wish to buy back its majority stake in Russia's top carmaker Avtovaz, it would have to pay at least 112.5 billion roubles ($1.3 billion) to cover investments made since selling for only one rouble in 2022, Avtovaz said.
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Meduza in English @meduza.io · 24/02/2025
How do sanctions give Washington leverage in negotiations with Moscow? And what can Europe and Ukraine do if the U.S. eases restrictions? For answers to these and other questions, Meduza spoke to researcher @mshagina.bsky.social.
buff.ly
‘The U.S. came to the peace talks unarmed’ Sanctions expert Maria Shagina explains how the West can use its main economic weapon in negotiations with Russia — Meduza
The U.S. and its allies have levied more than 20,000 sanctions against Russia in the three years since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Though they’ve failed to stop the Kremlin’s…
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
On the prospects of Western corporates returning to Russia (spoiler: very low). In great company with @jakluge.de and @edwardfishman.bsky.social www.wsj.com/world/russia...
wsj.com
Russia’s Withering Economy Is a Tricky Place to Do Deals—Even for Trump
The country abounds in oil and mineral wealth, but in many cases it is hard to reach and the threat of intervention from the Kremlin casts a long shadow.
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 22/02/2025
The EU is exploring more aggressively ways to seize Russia’s frozen central bank assets as a collateral to compensate for the destruction of Ukraine's energy infrastructure. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
EU Seeks Ways to Seize Part of Russia’s Frozen $280 Billion
The European Union is exploring more aggressively ways to seize Russia’s frozen central bank assets as the bloc scrambles to ensure financial and military support for Ukraine amid indications the US m...
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
Russia says it could concede $300bn in sovereign assets as part of the peace deal. Further evidence that Moscow wrote off the assets a long time ago, but is happy to leverage them b/c it knows the West thinks Russia cares about them. www.reuters.com/world/europe...
reuters.com
Exclusive: Russia could concede $300 billion in frozen assets as part of Ukraine war settlement, sources say
Russia could agree to using $300 billion of sovereign assets frozen in Europe for reconstruction in Ukraine but will insist that part of the money is spent on the one-fifth of the country that Moscow's forces control, three sources told Reuters.
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
🎶Tune in to listen to our podcast on Trump's Russia policy, sanctions and the peace deal: www.iiss.org/podcasts/sou...
iiss.org
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: three years on
Podcast host Meia Nouwens is joined by Dr Nigel Gould-Davies, Dr Maria Shagina and Franz-Stefan Gady to discuss the recent developments in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 18/02/2025
What can give the EU a seat at the table? Sanctions can play a key role here. Brussels and London can leverage their lion's share of Russian sovereign assets. www.ft.com/content/b427...
ft.com
US and Russia agree to ‘lay the groundwork’ for ending Ukraine war
Negotiations were first high-level talks on the conflict since early months of Vladimir Putin’s invasion
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 18/02/2025
"Lay the groundwork for future cooperation on matters of mutual geopolitical interest and historic economic and investment opportunities which will emerge from a successful end to the conflict in Ukraine." Wtf? www.state.gov/secretary-ru...
state.gov
Secretary Rubio’s Meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov - United States Department of State
The below is attributable to Spokesperson Tammy Bruce: Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov today as a follow up to President Donald Trump’s conversation with...
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 12/02/2025
Waltz: the negotiated exchange serves as a show of good faith from the Russians and a sign we are moving in the right direction to end the brutal and terrible war in Ukraine. Low-level exchange from Russia. The Q is what concessions the US gave in return. www.ft.com/content/00d0...
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
New US attorney general Bondi has disbanded DOJ's Task Force KleptoCapture responsible for enforcing sanctions on Russian oligarchs and refocused the resources to tackle cartels and transnat'l crime organisations. So much for Trump's harsh talk on Russia! www.compliancecorylated.com/news/us-atto...
compliancecorylated.com
US Attorney General disbands DOJ’s kleptocracy task force, curtails AML and corruption work   - Compliance Corylated
US attorney general Pam Bondi disbanded the DOJ Task Force KleptoCapture and refocused the criminal division’s FCPA unit and AML section.
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
Great example, which shows the limitations of a 'smart sanctions' approach: Russia and Turkey used the nuclear project in 2022 to dance around US sanctions imposed on Russia’s central bank, with Rosatom and Gazprombank playing the key role. www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
🤦When will Europe learn from its past mistakes? It's Russia who gambled and lost its game of weaponization. Going back to business as usual on energy will not incentivise Russia to come to the negotiating table, but encourage it to double down on its maximalist goals in UA www.ft.com/content/a19a...
ft.com
EU debates return to Russian gas as part of Ukraine peace deal
Advocates say reopening pipelines could help settlement with Moscow and cut energy costs
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 25/01/2025
On Trump's madman strategy: "Persuading leaders of foreign governments to yield to a demand, after all, requires not just convincing them that resisting will be punished. It also requires convincing them that yielding will actually prevent punishment."
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
Russia's shadow fleet isn't immune to Western chokepoints: flags of convenience are convenient until the US, UK and EU exert enough pressure on them. Barbados will remove 48 ships b/c of UK sanctions, Panama will delist 68 ships sanctioned by the US. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Russian Oil Ships Hunt for New Flags to Hide From Sanctions
A chunk of Russia’s oil tanker fleet is being forced to change the flag they sail under as US and UK sanctions heap pressure on Moscow’s shipping network.
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
Despite all the hype, Trump is unlikely to succeed in using sanctions as leverage to bring Russia to the negotiating table. Three reasons why: www.ft.com/content/64b7...
ft.com
Trump tells Putin to reach Ukraine ‘deal’ soon or US will increase sanctions
US president says Washington could impose more trade restrictions on Moscow
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
The EU's finally thinking out of the box: to ensure that Russia sanctions are extended and thus to safeguard the bloc's measures on sovereign assets, Brussels' one fallback option is to utilise a wartime decree from Belgium to block the transfer of assets from the country. www.ft.com/content/3c99...
ft.com
EU eyes enlisting Belgian king to help safeguard Russia sanctions
Royal wartime decree seen as fallback option to keep Russia’s frozen €190bn in EU if Hungary vetoes renewal of sanctions
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 17/01/2025
"In the past, Beijing’s responses were measured. But its words and actions are growing sharper, and the targets of its retaliatory blows are widening to include supply chain vulnerabilities, critical minerals and individual companies." www.nytimes.com/2025/01/17/b...
nytimes.com
Facing a Flurry of U.S. Sanctions, China Prepares to Hit Back
With days until Donald Trump is sworn in, China is bracing for a trade war, aiming at industries as diverse as semiconductors, apparel and industrial plastic.
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
In the incoming Trump admin, energy sanctions will be a key piece of leverage over Russia. The important Q is of sequencing: will Trump ramp up energy sanctions pressure ahead of negotiations or will he ease them to incentivise the oil majors to seal the deal? www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Trump Team Readies Oil Sanctions Plan for Russia Deal, Iran Squeeze
Advisers to President-elect Donald Trump are crafting a wide-ranging sanctions strategy to facilitate a Russia-Ukraine diplomatic accord in the coming months while at the same time squeezing Iran and ...
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
Following latest US sanctions, tanker rates from Russia to China have tripled. Higher freight costs and deeper oil discounts will push Russian crude closer to non-sanctioned crude. www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/tank...
tradewindsnews.com
Tanker rates more than triple from Russia to China as US sanctions hike profit
US sanctions on tankers importing Espo crude are hitting buyers in the pocket
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
The Biden administration has issued sweeping new sanctions against Russia's energy sector, incl. measures against GazpromNeft and Surgutneftegas, more than 180 vessels, and dozens of oil traders, oilfield service providers, insurance companies, and energy officials ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actio...
ofac.treasury.gov
Russia-related and Russia-/Ukraine-related Designations; Venezuela-related Designations; Publication of Russia-related Determinations; Issuance of Russia-related General Licenses and Frequently Asked ...
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
"Chinese track": Due to massive problems with 🇨🇳 banks, major 🇷🇺 banks are calling for the creation of a centralised system that would simplify payment settlements. Facilitated by 🇷🇺 &🇨🇳central banks, the scheme would be linked to 11 🇨🇳 provinces. www.moscowtimes.ru/2025/01/10/k...
moscowtimes.ru
«Китайский трек». Крупные российские банки создали новую схему расчетов с Китаем - Русская служба The Moscow Times
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
Trump changed his claim to end the war in Ukraine from '24 hours' to 'six months': “The whole [Trump] team is obsessed with strength and looking strong, so they’re recalibrating the Ukraine approach".
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
Beijing signals it's ready to retaliate early and hard to create leverage with Trump. In late 2024, Beijing blocked the export to the US of critical minerals used for chipmaking, squeezed the supply chain for US-made drones, and launched an antitrust probe into Nvidia. www.ft.com/content/ca79...
ft.com
Xi has a plan for retaliating against Trump’s gamesmanship
China is marshalling its forces for long-term competition against an America that it believes is divided and in decline
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
A perfect case that illustrates the challenges of friendshoring, the politicization of economic instruments, and the need for an economic statecraft doctrine. Biden blocks Japan's Nippon Steel deal on national security concerns. www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
washingtonpost.com
Companies signal court fight ahead after Biden blocks U.S. Steel sale
The move comes after a year of political and economic drama. It leaves the future of the once-iconic American business in doubt.
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
China hacked the US Treasury and OFAC, gaining access to unclassified information on potential targets of US financial sanctions. The hack occurred through a breach in software provided by a third-party vendor, ironically called BeyondTrust. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...
washingtonpost.com
Treasury’s sanctions office hacked by Chinese government, officials say
A troubling series of breaches of U.S. firms and agencies could intensify friction between Washington and Beijing as Donald Trump takes office
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 28/12/2024
Russia's shadow fleet is now a national security issue. The UK and Denmark were reluctant to step up monitoring in their straits on the pretext of the oil price cap violations. But given that the Russian ships are "monitoring all Nato naval ships and aircraft”, it's way beyond an environmental issue
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 25/12/2024
Many tidbits I disagree with, but the main one is centered around *how* to bring Russia to the negotiating table. The absence of a defined endgame has been indeed a major weakness of Biden's Russia/Ukraine policy, but what levers are used to force Russia to negotiate is key.
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 24/12/2024
@himself.bsky.social: "But the rapid growth of the U.S. economic security state has come at the cost of coherence. U.S. officials have few guidelines on when to employ particular economic weapons and few ways to ensure that they don’t interfere with each other"
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 23/12/2024
The rise of middle powers and their use of economic statecraft: Qatar has threatened to cut off gas shipments to the EU if Brussels strictly enforces the corporate due diligence directive. Qatar appears to have been inspired by Trump's tactics. www.ft.com/content/2260...
ft.com
Qatar will ‘stop’ EU gas sales if fined under due diligence law
Energy minister warns Doha ‘not bluffing’ over hefty penalties in corporate sustainability directive
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
Tariffs are the new sanctions. But easier to lift.
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Reposted by Dr Maria Shagina
Rachel Ziemba @reziemba.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
Biden admin shifting authorization of NS2 sanctions to executive order 14024 to make sure they dont expire (could have be triggered when R-ukr gas deal ceases). As expected, no one in admin had interest in easing up on R energy proj. Still waiting on new measures www.state.gov/re-imposing-...
state.gov
Re-Imposing Sanctions on Certain Entities Involved in Nord Stream 2  - United States Department of State
Today, the Department is imposing sanctions on a number of entities previously sanctioned pursuant to the Protecting Europe’s Energy Security Act (PEESA), as amended, for involvement in the constructi...
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 14/12/2024
Any export control policy on tech - cutting-edge or not - should take into account third-party intermediaries. To halt 🇨🇳 access to computing power, Biden aims to introduce purchasing caps on AI chips shipped to SE Asia and the Middle East. Could smth similar be done on 🇷🇺? www.wsj.com/tech/u-s-pre...
wsj.com
U.S. Prepares New AI Chip Restrictions to Close China’s Backdoor Access
Washington plans rules limiting semiconductor shipments to some countries accused of supplying Beijing.
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 14/12/2024
A senior Novatek executive visited Washington to discuss sanctions on Arctic LNG2. The incoming Trump admin is unlikely to be interested in easing sanctions on Russian LNG. If anything, Trump would double down on restrictions and ship more US LNG to Europe. www.highnorthnews.com/en/exclusive...
highnorthnews.com
Exclusive: Senior Novatek Official Traveled to Washington DC For Discussions on Arctic LNG Sanctions
Could the upcoming Trump U.S. administration offer an opportunity to reverse or lighten sanctions targeting the Russian LNG sector? Novatek appears to think so, dispatching a senior executive to Washi...
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
The main response to Russia's sabotage appears to be the customary sanctions. A clear case of when sanctions are ill-suited and overused. Instead of creating a sanctions regime on 🇷🇺 hybrid threats, the EU/G7 should think more outside the box. Economic statecraft is a craft, not a rubber-stamp.
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
Beijing will continue to exploit the nature of dual-use goods with plausible deniability. The EU will continue to convince itself that this is not yet a red line.
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
The Biden admin is considering secondary sanctions on Russian oil, akin to those on Iran, as a way of pressuring Russia ahead of the Trump admin and negotiations. If adopted, Trump may be deprived of a strong measure, but can still claim victory. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
US Considers New Russia Oil Sanctions to Weaken Putin Ahead of Trump
The Biden administration is weighing new, harsher sanctions against Russia’s lucrative oil trade, seeking to tighten the squeeze on the Kremlin’s war machine just weeks before Donald Trump returns to ...
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Texas Instruments accounts for ~14% of the components retrieved by 🇺🇦 authorities. "Western manufacturers can definitely do better due diligence. That requires adopting a holistic approach in risk management: moving away from a box-ticking, pro forma compliance to a comprehensive & investigative one"
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 08/12/2024
Russia has systematically weaponised its diaspora to circumvent sanctions and export controls. Countless examples of dual citizens engaged in violations. Here is another one where a former Russian engineer from ASML stole documents about chips and lithography technology. nos.nl/nieuwsuur/ar...
nos.nl
Russian former ASML employee suspected of theft of trade secrets
The man worked as an engineer at the chip manufacturer. He is suspected of stealing documents and is now in custody.
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 07/12/2024
The EU is discussing mitigation measures with the US, following its sanctions on Gazprombank. Putin's amendment to the decree didn't alleviate concerns about sanctions risks. One option includes payments via a Luxembourg-based subsidiary of Gazprombank. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
EU in Talks With US to Mitigate Effect of Russian Bank Sanctions
The European Union is pressing the US to explore ways to mitigate US sanctions on Russia’s Gazprombank, a financial institution key for keeping Russian natural gas flowing into the bloc.
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
Key implications of the amendment: - Gazprombank is no longer in charge of converting hard currency into roubles = higher transaction costs for the buyers of Russian gas: - an offshore bank can become a new finan channel for payments = faster transactions, Gazprombank is likely to lose its key role
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Dr Maria Shagina @mshagina.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
Many didn't believe that Russia would blink, but today Putin amended his decree for allowing the processing of gas payments by another banks, beyond Gazprombank. There are two options now: rouble payments though a designated bank or mutual debt cancellation. www.kommersant.ru/doc/7347395?tg
kommersant.ru
Путин отменил обязательство рассчитываться за газ через Газпромбанк
Подробнее на сайте
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Tatarigami @tatarigami.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
With Russia's budget deficit at 3.3 trillion rubles, 21% key interest rate and 2-3 million job vacancies, Russia has to choose between hyperinflation or an economic freeze, says Vladimir Milov, former Deputy Minister of Energy in an interview with Frontelligence Insight 🧵Thread:
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