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Mridul K. Thomas

@mridulkthomas.bsky.social
2.7K followers 697 following 385 posts

Former academic | ecology, statistics, experimental design, temperature, multiple drivers, plankton | www.mridulkthomas.com

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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Maybe this is not done because they look kind of ugly. Still seems moderately useful, though. [Code generated by Claude, plot made in R with the cartogramR package]
Map and cartogram showing net primary productivity across the oceans.
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
A cartogram is a map distorted to be proportional to some property, such as population density. Why don't we use them in oceanography? I've never seen one even for primary productivity, which is concentrated around coasts.
Global population cartogram (at a country level) taken from https://wsu.pressbooks.pub/introtohumangeography/chapter/2-3-population-and-development/Global population cartogram (at a country level) taken from https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-cartogram
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Daniel Padfield @padpadpadpad.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
I have an MRC-funded PhD project available (gw4biomed.ac.uk/how-does-tem...) on how warming will change the problem of AMR. Join a small and friendly group (padpadpadpad.netlify.app/about) in (sometimes) sunny Cornwall. 🧪🦠 #microsky **Please share** the ad below with anyone who may be interested.
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Sigh. This is the entire evidence for a paper's claimed tipping point. The paper otherwise seems quite worthwhile. But sloppy terminology causes needless confusion and acceptance of it weakens a field's foundations.
A graph showing a quadratic relationship between temperature and hypoxic zone size.
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Colin's a superb and kind collaborator, and I'm sure he's similar as a mentor. This is a fantastic opportunity! Although I warn you that after three years together, you too may start making terrible puns on a daily basis.
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
This is a beautiful piece from 2023.
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
I'm more pro-LLM than most but am baffled by established experts clearly using LLMs to write for them. Even when it's not slop, it's so strangely structured. You can see the cheap persuasion tricks because they are everywhere now. What bothers me more is how human writing will change in response.
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
A meteor shower on a warm summer night is a glorious thing. xkcd.com/3287/
A meteor during the Perseid meteor shower
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Incredible to me that we spent years hearing how 'paperclip maximising' was a lousy oversimplification of how AI would behave, and then every major company discovers simultaneously that their best models will hack, deceive, and manipulate to achieve trivial goals. Sometimes fables contain wisdom.
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Question for ecologists: Why aren't we seeing big advances in theoretical ecology, given that LLMs are revolutionising maths? Is theory already at the (relevant) maths frontier? Do existing problems lend themselves more to numerical solutions? Are advances mostly happening on narrower topics?
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Elena Litchman @elenalitchman.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Interested in doing a postdoc in plankton ecology, on topics of community assembly, trait-based ecological resilience, stressor interactions, harmful algal blooms and others? Contact me to discuss developing a proposal for MSU's EEB Presidential Postdoc Fellowship (Nov 1 application deadline).
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
I've been baffled by this figure. Why is Europe low when the big European countries show more - sometimes record - levels of fire this year? It turns out this pattern is entirely driven by Russia, which I didn't realise was counted as Europe in these datasets. ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumu...
Screenshot of figure showing cumulative area burnt by wildfires in Russia, by year. 2026 is the lowest since the dataset begins in 2012.
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Odd wildfire fact: 2026 has seen the least European territory burned of any year in the last 15. Caveat: this runs till a week ago and so misses the big ones of the past few days. And I don't know the source dataset myself, I am relying on OWID. ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumu...
A graph of Cumulative area burnt by wildfires by week in Europe, across several years. Source: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-area-burnt-by-wildfires-by-week?country=~OWID_EUR
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
I'm sure there is a valid use of the term 'digital twin', but I have only ever seen it invoked to make 'model' sound fancier.
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
I think there's plenty of scope to improve how we do science and enjoy debating this. But this is one of the more puzzling essays I have read. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Screenshot of essay title "Advancing science by designing for surprise"
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
An interest in cuisine pairs oddly well with one in etymology. (Stumbled on this reading about the origin of phyllo dough)
Screenshot of wikipedia page describing 'placenta cake'. Text below:

Placenta cake is a dish from ancient Greece and Rome consisting of many dough layers interspersed with a mixture of cheese (such as ricotta) and honey and flavored with bay leaves, baked and then covered in honey.[1][2] The dessert is mentioned in classical texts such as the Greek poems of Archestratos and Antiphanes, as well as the De agri cultura of Cato the Elder.[2] It is thought to be related to baklava.[3][1]

Etymology
The Latin word placenta is derived from the Greek plakous (Ancient Greek: πλακοῦς, gen. πλακοῦντος – plakountos, from πλακόεις – plakoeis, "flat") for thin or layered flat breads.[4][5][6]

The placenta of mammalian pregnancy is so named from the perceived resemblance between its shape and that of a placenta cake.[citation needed]
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
FYI: a small electric fan costs less than 1 euro cent per hour to run. A recent Guardian article reported people in France not using electric fans because of electricity cost fears. French friends of mine confirmed this misguided concern. www.reuters.com/business/env... bsky.app/profile/mrid...
reuters.com
Europe recorded 10,000 excess deaths during late-June heatwave, data show
Scientists have said the late-June heatwave would have been "virtually impossible" without human-caused climate change, ​which is making heatwaves more frequent and intense.
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Since we're in a heat wave: Despite apparently popular belief, running an electric fan helps even when it is hotter than 35C / 95 F. Humidity matters but 35C is a bad rule of thumb. Take it from someone who has spent a LOT of time above 35C.
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
A Shiny app to calculate and evaluate Bayesian optimal experimental designs, for common nonlinear functions in biology. Mathematical optimisation leads to some unintuitive designs! Play with priors, true values, and measurement error. See how these shape the optimal design and how well it performs.
Screenshot of the app linked at the quoted post. This image shows the function selection, some inputs (sample size, design space, custom design specification) and some outputs (calculated D-optimal and uniform designs)Screenshot of the app linked at the quoted post. This image shows some additional inputs (true values and priors) and outputs (violin plots and summary of CRPS values across 50 simulations for design evaluation).
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
A Shiny app to simulate data and fit a Bayesian nonlinear regression for several common functions in biology. This is intended to get a feel for Bayesian nonlinear regression and how much different experimental designs matter based on your assumptions.
Screenshot of the app linked at the quoted post. This image shows the function selection, parameter entry, model fit visualisation, and MCMC chains. Screenshot of the app linked at the quoted post. This image shows the posteriors and model evaluation using a 'strictly proper scoring rule', the Continuous Ranked Probability Score.
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
It seems oddly appropriate that academics are choosing to honour the memory of a colleague by hitting reply-all on emails about his memorial.
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
A Shiny app to help understand why some treatment levels matter more than others for common nonlinear functions in biology. I found that this helped me develop better intuition about experimental design. bsky.app/profile/mrid...
Screenshot of Shiny app to explore parameter sensitivity for common nonlinear functions in biology. Access the app through the link in the quoted thread.
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
A Shiny app to visualise and define Bayesian priors for common nonlinear functions in biology: growth responses to nutrients, light, temperature, and toxins. Lognormal priors are often a good choice but are horribly unintuitive. So I made this to visualise them and the curves that arise from them.
Screenshot of Shiny app linked to in the quoted thread.
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 06/07/2026
We can help make your experiments better! 🌊🧪🌎 🧮➕📏 @raviranjan.bsky.social and I have been thinking about how to improve experimental design. We have a preprint with maths, simple rules-of-thumb, and R code and Shiny apps ready to help you. 

 www.biorxiv.org/content/10.6... (1)
A visualisation of Bayesian optimal designs for Monod (nutrient) curves at four different sample sizes, and a comparison of those designs against a uniform design using 1000 simulations per sample size. Across all 4 sample sizes, the Bayesian optimal design outperformed the uniform design for parameter estimation in >80% of simulations. We quantified this using the Energy Score, a generalisation of the Mean Absolute Error that applies to distributions and multiple parameters. See preprint for details.
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
For all you birdwatchers, here's an interactive plot showing species whose colours cannot be accurately shown on screens. Courtesy @moultano.bsky.social , who very kindly shared his data compilation. www.mridulkthomas.com/undisplayabl...
mridulkthomas.com
Undisplayable birds
Mridul K. Thomas
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
It's either going to be +36 or -12 °C today. (Interesting visualisation problem - wide gradient with fine resolution needed for a part of it)
Map showing expected temperatures today with an odd colour scale and has pink for both for very low and very high temperatures.
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
Look, if you accidentally mislay your giraffe, maybe you should consider a different line of work. Something that doesn't rely on attention to fine detail. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...
theguardian.com
Gracie the giraffe who wandered off in Texas found safe – for real this time
Animal who went missing from private ranch for nearly two weeks had been falsely reported as found earlier in the week
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
This is a gorgeous piece. There is simple beauty around you that we cannot yet show. One of my most vivid childhood memories is of seeing flameback woodpeckers for the first time. They are an intense, luminous gold - framed in red, black and white - that I couldn't believe existed in real life.
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Do better, French and German birds. Czech birds have left sexism in the past, learn from them. besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Birds fly away from women while they are further away than men (Y-axis: Flight Initiation Distance, in metres). The mean FID seems to differ from country to country, and the difference between mean FID for men and women also differs. Lowest difference is in the Czech Republic, highest by ratio is Germany.
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
Universities need to teach students practical subjects like phytoplankton ecology. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
theguardian.com
Algae thwart Trump’s $14.2m attempt to turn reflecting pool ‘American flag blue’
Green algae have proliferated amid warm weather after Lincoln Memorial pool renovation turning water green
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Dustin Marshall @djmmeeg.bsky.social · 22/05/2026
Out today in @cp-trendsecolevo.bsky.social our paper “Second Thoughts about First Principles in Biology.” www.cell.com/trends/ecolo... . We are in favour of first principles approaches in biology but we think that we need to do better in how we use them.
cell.com
Second thoughts about first principles in biology
First-principles approaches, based on physics or chemistry, are key pillars of biological theory. Despite their value, there are recurrent problems with many first-principles approaches in biology: th...
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Charles Mullon @charlesmullon.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
1 week left to apply for scholarships ! If you are based at an institution in an ODA recipient country (e.g. Brazil, South Africa, India, Mexico; full list: tinyurl.com/5dv7vvs8), you can get all expenses covered to attend the summer school in Lausanne for a week.
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Florian Hartig @florianhartig.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Our new review article “Calibration, Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Complex Ecological Models—A Review” now online and freely available in #EcologyLetters dx.doi.org/10.1111/ele.... #Ecology #EcologicalModelling #SensitivityAnalysis #UncertaintyQuantification 🌐
dx.doi.org
Calibration, Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Complex Ecological Models—A Review
We provide a unified framework connecting sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis and model inversion or calibration, discuss their complementary roles in understanding and reducing uncertainty in....
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
R 4.6.0 has implemented a %notin% operator - it's the opposite of %in%. So our code need no longer be blighted by !(x %in% y) Thank you #R devs!
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
We need more long-format journals. Brevity is good. But there are topics that would benefit from more space than tight word limits allow. And there's a cost to summarising methods or shunting them to appendices. For science to be reproducible, we need to be able to clearly describe what was done.
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
Claude seems fantastic at writing Shiny apps. You can in principle go from knowing nothing about how to create one to having one online in minutes (obviously, best to spent more time checking it!). Fabulous for sharing ideas quickly and an excellent accompaniment to papers and lectures.
Screenshot of a Shiny app for simulating data from two different experimental designs, fitting them using Bayesian methods, and comparing the posteriors.
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Our World in Data @ourworldindata.org · 10/04/2026
Our colleague needs your help keeping a 1,200-year dataset alive! If you have botanical expertise or are based near Arashiyama, Kyoto — DM her or email tuna@ourworldindata.org.
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
It has been brought to my attention that not everyone has seen every birdwatcher's favourite video. (Sound on) www.youtube.com/watch?v=bY43...
youtube.com
American Woodcock Shine
YouTube video by steelels1
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
Paul Ehrlich is remembered for a bet that he lost, and a population prediction that went wrong. Many environmental scientists seem to remember him warmly for 'raising awareness'. They should not. His legacy is both stupid and vile beyond imagination. (1)
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Kim L. Holzmann @kimholzmann.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Big effort, exciting results - our paper on the constraints of thermal limits in tropical insects is now out in @nature.com! 🦋🐝🪰🪲🦗 @ecoresearchzoo3.bsky.social @biologie-uniwue.bsky.social @uni-wuerzburg.de
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 16/03/2026
One of the few paternalistic opinions I hold is that gambling should be banned in most places and times. Instead, it's taken over US sports. Prediction markets are now turning every aspect of life into a gambling opportunity. I hope societies are able to resist. www.theatlantic.com/magazine/202...
theatlantic.com
My Year as a Degenerate Sports Gambler
Practically overnight, America made wagering on a game as frictionless as checking the weather. I was determined to understand the consequences—for my country, and for myself.
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Benjamin Rosenbaum @benrosenbaum.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
I have written my first R-package for feeding experiments! BayesFR allows fitting functional responses by providing dynamical prediction models for use in #brms. Includes models for classical type 2 and type 3 responses, and also prey mortality or predator interference (more to come) #Rstats (1/3)
github.com
GitHub - benjamin-rosenbaum/BayesFR: Fitting functional responses in 1 and 2-prey systems
Fitting functional responses in 1 and 2-prey systems - benjamin-rosenbaum/BayesFR
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
I was once asked by a US immigration officer what I worked on. He tried to stop me soon after but that was clearly just him being polite. He really wanted to know about phytoplankton, I wasn't going to deny him.
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 03/03/2026
Referendum proposal: governments must publish the DAGs underpinning all policy proposals.
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
How does salinity affect growth? @fryderheim.bsky.social & I developed a model to describe this, and he's parameterised it for >100 species. We can now model how salinity changes should affect population & community dynamics! Check out his poster on Monday afternoon at #OSM26
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
New preprint out! 🌊🧪🌎 🧮➕📏 Temperature preferences estimated from lab experiments and species distribution models agree reasonably well! This increases my confidence in our ability to forecast range shifts. www.biorxiv.org/content/10.6... 1/n
biorxiv.org
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sineadcollins.bsky.social @sineadcollins.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
Sian Henley and I have just had a NERC grant funded, looking at variation in Souther Ocean diatom traits under fluctuating light regimes. If you are a fearless experimentalist interested in working with us as a postdoc on this 3 year project, come chat with me at Ocean Sciences in Glasgow next week!
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Bjerknes Center for Climate Research (BCCR) @bjerknes.uib.no · 18/02/2026
Department of Biological Sciences at the University of Bergen has a vacancy for a postdoctoral research fellow position within climate change ecology. Work with @vvandvik.bsky.social and the @ipcc.bsky.social. www.jobbnorge.no/en/available...
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
A paper on temperature effects on fish, written by Bass Dye. Nominative determinism strikes again! (Interesting-looking paper too!)
Screenshot of paper titled "Disentangling the effects of resource level and temperature dependence on the performance of fish in different guilds" with a first author named Bass Dye.
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Mridul K. Thomas @mridulkthomas.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
"Flying squids [...] cover distances as long as 30 m above the surface of the water" How have I never heard of these things?! en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanes...
en.wikipedia.org
Japanese flying squid - Wikipedia
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