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Reposted by Mona Paulsen

Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

After reading the French-German non-paper, I could not but question the commentary commending its significance. Were we reading the same paper? Apparently, we were. I wrote up my evaluation in hopes it affords a point of reflection for moving forward. monapaulsen.substack.com/p/evaluating...

monapaulsen.substack.com

Evaluating the French-German non-paper

Some initial thoughts as we wait to learn more about Europe’s future roadmap

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

monapaulsen.substack.com

Evaluating the French-German non-paper

Some initial thoughts as we wait to learn more about Europe’s future roadmap

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Now, instead of hiring and misusing research assistants, academics can use AI. Academics with little interest in research can now do it at minimal cost. So we just have more bad research and the same slow level of rigorous, careful work. Fast Fashion has hit Academics.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

I think folks would do better studying what a LLM is and how it works before we begin ruminating on the quality and scope of outputs.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

So, if you are waiting for that one policy or that one government to come around before action can happen, then, my friend, you're trying to make a model with perfectly spherical cows. ielp.worldtradelaw.net/2026/09/deci...

ielp.worldtradelaw.net

Decision-Making in the Absence of Perfectly Spherical Cows

Last week, I had the distinct honour of participating in the plenary session that launched the WTO World Trade Report for 2026. You can check out the recording. In the week prior, WTO Chief Economist...

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Academics cannot demand that politics be perfect before experimentation. I argue that we could be open to creativity and focus on taking small, pragmatic steps towards that goal. Creative thinking is not fanciful or whimsical. It is an important part of how we get things done.

ielp.worldtradelaw.net

Decision-Making in the Absence of Perfectly Spherical Cows

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Hi all, ICYMI, keen to hear from my European Council colleagues on the reasoning for and practice I draw from.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

I propose that a “blocking minority” be required, rather than the current approach, which allows individual Members to prevent a majority from moving forward. New @worldtradelaw.bsky.social from me: Decision-Making in the Absence of Perfectly Spherical Cows ielp.worldtradelaw.net/2026/09/deci...

ielp.worldtradelaw.net

Decision-Making in the Absence of Perfectly Spherical Cows

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

In the spirit of our plenary, I took up the opportunity to write up one of my answers for Bob, though we ran out of time - one change for the WTO consensus blockage.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

In the week prior, @wto.org Chief Economist Bob Staiger asked all of us speaking to prepare a quick answer in the final minutes of the session: if we had the keys to the house, what is one procedural and one substantive change we would make?

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Last week, I had the distinct honour of participating in the plenary session that launched the WTO World Trade Report for 2026 at #WTOPublicForum. You can check out the recording: www.youtube.com/watch?v=VU7B...

youtube.com

Launch of the World Trade Report 2026

YouTube video by World Trade Organization

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

On what evidence of investigation does the POTUS base the decision to ban certain Canadian products under Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act? This administration has a legal duty to comply with the statute that confers its trade powers. monapaulsen.substack.com/p/actions-pu...

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

What do we know about the future US management of semiconductor supply chains? The Business of Security. monapaulsen.substack.com/p/the-busine...

monapaulsen.substack.com

The business of security

What we know about the future of semiconductor supply management.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

We hope this public discussion will help us think creatively and carefully about how the MFN principle and its exceptions can continue to serve the entire membership in pursuing mutually advantageous trade. Let’s clear the air and talk about MFN at this year's #WTOPublicForum

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Thus far, what we have seen is the United States negotiating *directly* with businesses. Ad hoc. Opaque. And makes it impossible for a trading partner government to address the concerns giving rise to the tariffs (especially if under 301s). subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2026...

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

This session will explore the central question: can trade rules help solve real-world problems related to economic security? We will discuss transparency of government measures and reflect on our speakers' specific sectors, in chemicals, financial services, and logistics.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

#WTOPublicForum is around the corner. Together with George Riddell and Valerie Picard and the International Chamber of Commerce, we have convened a session on businesses' experience with economic security policies.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

I'm not sure how this explains why Apple UK now shows Lake America.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

But it does not make sense then to have Apple Maps in the UK display Gulf of America in brackets beneath Gulf of Mexico, yet show Lake Ontario.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Are we all too often ready to hurl criticisms when problems arises, but all too silent to praise when none do? Stability is hard fought and all too easily lost.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

A reminder that there are people in power who wrote a book that asserted that angering the “opponent” is a negotiating technique. Even if it’s not a zero sum matter and that partners are not opponents. But the best defence is to rise above, no matter the grotesque.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

What are the legal obligations by which US companies adopt renaming? The EO instructs Federal Departments to take on the renaming. Will the Feds add clauses to all contracts? Costly regulation. Here’s Apple on the Gulf of Mexico.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

The name means beautiful sparkling lake. Ontario connects every Canadian to Indigenous communities culture & history. Every Canadian, no matter where, honour our shared space and time on that land. It’s difficult to accept even performative acts like this. www.canada.ca/en/canadian-...

canada.ca

Ontario - Canada.ca

Learn about Ontario’s symbols, which include the eastern white pine, the loon and the trillium.

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Reposted by Mona Paulsen

Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 26/08/2026

I wrote about the Moderna cancer vaccine news briefly for our weekly round up www.abundanceandgrowth.org/p/cancer-vac...

Personalized cancer vaccines are now real — Saloni Dattani
Researchers have spent decades trying to develop personalized cancer vaccines, and last week, the first one succeeded. It’s called intismeran autogene (mouthful), was developed by Moderna and Merck, and involves sequencing melanoma patients’ cancer mutations, creating a custom mRNA to target them, and delivering the vaccine to stop the cancer recurring. The news came as the drug passed its interim goal in a phase three trial, where it was given to people with high-risk resected melanoma.

It led to Moderna’s stock jumping 177%, which was apparently the largest one-day gain by any S&P 500 stock this century. I found the size of the surge surprising because you could have already been fairly confident that the drug would succeed since at least June: as I wrote in an earlier post, the company presented data from their phase 2b trial at an oncology conference almost three months ago, which showed a 49% reduction in the risk of recurrence or death (p = 0.0075). But, according to financial analysts, the huge market reaction was probably down to a short squeeze and the belief that mRNA could be a more widely useful platform to develop other cancer vaccines too.

That makes sense, but it’s worth knowing that melanoma is a much easier disease to develop cancer vaccines for than others. It carries a very high number of mutations, so you have thousands of possible ‘neoantigens’ to select from and can choose those that look strong on many measures, but this isn’t the case for many cancers. Many cancers have far fewer mutations to select from, and it’s currently hard to predict whether their mutations will be displayed or measure which ones actually are displayed.

But very few people thought this attempt would work either, until recently. According to a very interesting new STAT article detailing how this cancer vaccine came about, Moderna’s own executives didn’t expect it would work until 2023; it first entered clinical trials in 2017. In case you’re interested in more about personalized cancer vaccines, I’ll once again recommend this great podcast episode, How to design a cancer vaccine, hosted by Owl Posting and featuring Alex Rubinsteyn and Benjamin Vincent, two scientists whose work focuses on cancer immunology and vaccines.

Chart of Moderna share price

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

I’ve been so focused I completely missed that Dolly Parton passed. What a treasure.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Ya’ll are missing out on the Canadian jokes. Enjoy!

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Considering one sec. 338 claim arose from retaliation, not completely impossible to see this escalate. Source: www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/...

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Section 338 of the 1930 Trade Act lets POTUS scale up actions. POTUS could completely exclude products from importation into the United States if a country maintains its discriminations. We can dispute how likely that would stand up to litigation, though.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

What happened to the US demand for reciprocity? Asserting unilateral actions to get more favourable benefits from a partner isn’t exactly how I’d define reciprocity.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

I know my kid loves cricket but Blue Jays forever.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

You’d think the serious food recalls this summer would matter more to farmers and agro trade…

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

This would seem counter productive to Carney’s careful work to keep a unified Canadian position…a likely more durable trade negotiating position. But then again Ontario is a middle child so.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

I get X now, you read, become increasingly angry at the absolute avalanche of nonsense and then want to scream out anger into the void to the point you lose all sense and decency, thereby perpetuating and scaling anger. Need to hug puppies.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

Yeah agree. Like when I nod and tell my kids later when they ask for something and I can’t handle a tantrum that comes with a no.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

With the US obsessed with tariffs and reports coming out Canada only cared about tariff relief than there is a case for every US trade partner liberalising and using regulatory protectionism and fine tuned tariff descriptions for their efficient protectionism of choice. Only half joking.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

I’ve seen people criticise Bluesky but after being on X for 24 hours it is amazing to see the rolling out of absolute hogwash and visceral hate promoted. It’s quite astonishing. I can’t make sense of how damaging it must be for someone to read every day.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

I’m so happy this banger made it into the story: “Instead of addressing those, they put forward a bunch of minor things. A cornucopia of caprice.” x.com/politico/sta...

x.com

POLITICO (@politico) on X

Inside the 72 hours that cratered the US-Canada trade deal https://t.co/M9kmBndK8S

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

To be clear, I have yet to see any evidence that any US economic security deals/frameworks/agreements have any sound legal basis in US law, nor is there evidence that they have formed the basis for improved reciprocal relations. New tariff threats continue. Uncertainty remains.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

I went for a long run thinking about Canada’s situation, and even if Harry Styles was in my ear, I thought through the broader state of play between the US and Canada monapaulsen.substack.com/p/canada-us-...

monapaulsen.substack.com

Canada-US Trade Talks hit a road bump

What happened in the final days of negotiation that spurred yesterday’s news cycle?

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

“Being open to the possibility that LLMs are conscious is the same as being open to the possibility that Microsoft Word is conscious, or, more precisely, that multiple distinct consciousnesses are dormant in every Word document containing a conversational transcript […].”

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

Was Canada worried about creeping coercion? My assessment of what could have stalled a concluded deal.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 23/08/2026

New from me: I tried to take a fresh look this morning at how and why Canada-US Trade Talks hit a road bump. monapaulsen.substack.com/p/canada-us-...

monapaulsen.substack.com

Canada-US Trade Talks hit a road bump

What happened in the final days of negotiation that spurred yesterday’s news cycle?

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Economic security dilemma. Most treaties are incomplete contracts but the parties would build into that very stable and predictable paths for short term exceptions or permanent changes. But you need to bind core norms & agreed definitions otherwise you end up with paper thin promises.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Per Inside US Trade, I wonder if it went even beyond the requirements of an NME per USMCA 32.10 and one the US would deem inconsistent with its economic security interests? That’s a bit of a moving target … But did it go beyond what past deals demanded? I thought the poison pills were semi-solid.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Does anyone know more of the details of the demands? Similar to other ARTs of the past or even more exacting? Details from USTR indicate similar economic security commitments we’ve seen before but I wonder if perhaps we were seeing wider, deeper, *binding* controls on Canadian interests.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Sometimes agreements are about more than liberalisation. Sometimes agreements foster partnership and cooperation in broader international concerns. The GATT was a powerful pact for statecraft, explaining why the US made concessions to get the agreement signed.

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Mona Paulsen @monapaulsen.bsky.social · 22/08/2026

Just a reminder that if the US had concerns of nullification or impairment of negotiated benefits then the government has had recourse to formal, structured consultations and dispute resolution within a very comprehensive trade agreement since 1994 —- no, since 1947.

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