iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

There is surely some basic biology benefit to gain. But the 100s of millions spent were justified with pandemic prevention/response as part of it, and the vaccine part of that doesn't hold water.

The fact that WIV1 and HKU1 were used by Moderna doesn't mean that they were central to the science; I'm no patent expert but I guess patent applicants want to cover as many applications (eg viruses) as possible for commercial reasons. Unclear to me if using them fundamentally changed conclusions.

100

On the substance of your points, I am not sure about the "not dangerous because the worst viruses are already at the interface" -- depends if ecological encounter opportunities are rate-limiting, which I think we often don't know.

one argument supporting a type of research may be weak while another is stronger, or research may be both dangerous and useful (or safe and not useful) and taking points one at a time helps to keep the questions separate.

120

Thanks @acritschristoph.bsky.social for these thoughtful comments. Apart from space and time, one reason we didn't address the other arguments was that I think it's important to consider arguments separately to reduce pressure to form "sides" -- ...

There may be other justifications for the expense and risk incurred by such prospecting efforts, but vaccine development is not a strong one. Pathogen identification at the human interface (in spillover cases) and efforts to avoid or remediate human drivers of spillover risk may be more efficient.

040

For Marburg, a reservoir is known, but serious efforts at countermeasures have been spurred by human outbreaks. We conclude that virus prospecting is neither necessary, sufficient, nor particularly feasible as a driver for medical countermeasure (at least vaccine) development.

120

Last, we take a look at detailed timelines of human and animal isolation of filoviruses (ebolavirus spp. and Marburg) and note that in ebolaviruses, animal reservoirs have not been confirmed but countermeasure development has followed large human outbreaks.

100

Then we identify the large number of targets for which vaccines are arguably more urgent than for any virus known only in non-human hosts: the 26 families of viruses known to infect humans. Among these, there are no vaccines approved for even a single member of 10 of the 26 families.

100

Then we note that most major virus outbreaks of the 21st century have been caused by viruses first discovered in humans. Next, we show that recent priority pathogen lists for countermeasure development have contained known human pathogens but shown little relationship to virus discovery in wildlife.

First we note that historically, finding a novel virus in animals before the first known human outbreak did not in any case spur countermeasure development. Poignant examples are Zika (1947 in animals, 1952 in humans, vaccines only much later) and monkeypox (1958-1970, vaccine R&D only recently).

100

Marc Lipsitch @mlipsitch.bsky.social · 14/08/2025

In it we asked if prospecting for novel viruses in wildlife is justified, as often asserted, as a means to speeding the development of countermeasures against emerging infections. We find little evidence that it is.

131

Good to get them <65 in advance of Medicare denying payment for progressives

010

Reposted by Marc Lipsitch

CCDD @ccdd-hsph.bsky.social · 21/07/2025

Check out "Are We Prepared for the Next Pandemic?"- CCDD Director, @mlipsitch.bsky.social's conversation with Sam Harris, host of the Making Sense podcast. www.samharris.org/podcasts/mak...

samharris.org

Sam Harris | #425 - Are We Prepared for the Next Pandemic?

Sam Harris speaks with Marc Lipsitch about pandemic preparedness.

053

Reposted by Marc Lipsitch

Elizabeth Warren @warren.senate.gov · 30/06/2025

Republicans, before you vote to close 1 of 4 nursing homes, can you update us on where those people will go? Maybe call a few seniors in your state and go over plans for where they go next? Or call the son whose dad has dementia and tell him how he can be a full-time caregiver?

872365787

Reposted by Marc Lipsitch

CCDD @ccdd-hsph.bsky.social · 24/06/2025

A new study by Julia Deichmann, @mlipsitch.bsky.social and collaborators at the Sheba Medical Center, Israel uses mathematical modeling to predict antibody kinetics and duration of protection against SARS-CoV-2 following vaccination using sparse serological data. Read it here at bit.ly/43XY9mK

bit.ly

Predicting antibody kinetics and duration of protection against SARS-CoV-2 following vaccination from sparse serological data

Author summary Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 has played a key role during the COVID-19 pandemic to lower transmission rates and reduce the number of severe cases. This is due to a vaccine-induced ris...

062

Reposted by Marc Lipsitch

CCDD @ccdd-hsph.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

New tool for pangenome analysis! CLARC refines bacterial gene clusters using functional annotation + linkage—not just sequence. New publication by @indragon.bsky.social & collaborators, advised by @mlipsitch.bsky.social & @billhanage.bsky.social. Read more at bit.ly/4ek0Y51

bit.ly

Linkage-based ortholog refinement in bacterial pangenomes with CLARC

Abstract. Bacterial genomes exhibit significant variation in gene content and sequence identity. Pangenome analyses explore this diversity by classifying g

056

Marc Lipsitch @mlipsitch.bsky.social · 20/06/2025

Deeply affecting article by an @hsph.harvard.edu PhD student denied the opportunity to graduate due to blanket exclusion of Sierra Leone citizens by the US Government. A very particular example of pointless cruelty by the US Government. www.theguardian.com/global-devel...

theguardian.com

What it’s really like … to know I’m going to miss my Harvard graduation because of Trump’s travel ban

Like many other international students I have had my educational dreams suspended without reason – and learned plenty about racism and resilience

25230

Marc Lipsitch @mlipsitch.bsky.social · 09/06/2025

There is a link for non-NIH individuals to sign in support. Already several Nobelists and others have

000

Marc Lipsitch @mlipsitch.bsky.social · 09/06/2025

Remarkable open letter to the director from NIH staff on the health, financial,academic freedom, and other impacts of changes at the agency. www.standupforscience.net/bethesda-dec...

standupforscience.net

Bethesda Declaration — STAND UP FOR SCIENCE

Support NIH Staff Now!

142

Reposted by Marc Lipsitch

Michael Baym @baym.lol · 31/05/2025

The goal is plainly and literally to cut the number of people involved in basic science in the US by 70%

7414192

Reposted by Marc Lipsitch

Ferric Fang, MD @fangferric.bsky.social · 31/05/2025

"The policy’s narrow-mindedness will make America small again.” I am simply at a loss to express how stupid this is. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/30/b...

nytimes.com

Denying Visas to Chinese Students Could Backfire on America

174

Marc Lipsitch @mlipsitch.bsky.social · 28/05/2025

Thanks Dani Blum @nytimes.com for breaking down the science on kids, pregnant people, and COVID shots www.nytimes.com/2025/05/27/w...

nytimes.com

The C.D.C. Now Says Healthy Kids Don’t Need Covid Shots. Is That True?

171

US health agencies like CDC and NIH and FDA remain full of dedicated and exceptional scientists and health professionals doing the right thing for public health. But this example shows they can be overruled by an exceptionally unqualified secretary of HHS.

1131

Public Health Agency of Canada - Canada.ca

I'm fortunate to live in a state with a high-quality health department that provides information based on science. For those who don't I recommend Canadian www.canada.ca/en/public-he... or UK www.gov.uk/government/o... advice.

canada.ca

Public Health Agency of Canada

1196

As the quality of health advice becomes more politicized and arbitrary, and less science-based Americans are going to have to turn to state health officials (some of them) or other countries for good advice.

1132

Jasmin Abdel Ghany @jasminabdelghany.bsky.social · 26/05/2025

The Department of Health and Human Services has a process for making and updating recommendations like this, using expert scientists and clinicians. RFK is deliberately putting Americans' health at risk and sidestepping good science for political reasons.

13818

Reposted by Marc Lipsitch

The Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) Program was central in improving the evidence base for health policies and interventions, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and Central & Southern Asia - figure by @aasli.bsky.social. Our preprint on the termination of the DHS Program: osf.io/preprints/so...

16024

Reposted by Marc Lipsitch

Bailey Bowcutt @baileybowcutt.bsky.social · 22/05/2025

I'm a current Harvard graduate student and I found out today that I had my NSF GRFP terminated without notification. I was awarded this individual research fellowship before even choosing Harvard as my graduate school

45893310

Please consider a comment today if you are in the US. See the advice (shared from an email I received) in the follow-up posts below this one. Tomorrow is the deadline. This is an important part of scientific freedom in this country.

043

If thousands of scientists say that political interference with grants assessment is going to destroy the scientific integrity of federal grants, the agency will have to explain why the rule doesn’t do that (which it can’t because this is precisely why the new regulation is being instituted).

020

The agency must act in a rational way, providing reasons for not taking particular objections into account and justifying its proposal in ways that are legally acceptable.

100

By law, the proposing agency (in this case, the office of personnel management headed by Project 2025 coordinator Russell Vought) must take comments into account and respond to them, thereby forming a record that can be challenged in subsequent litigation.

120

Time Sensitive: Public comment on Schedule F (removing civil service protections for many federal employees INCLUDING THOSE WITH AUTHORITY OVER GRANTS) ends tomorrow. Notice is here: www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/... . Comment here (green button) www.federalregister.gov/documents/20... .

govinfo.gov

12419

A partial solution is to post preprints of everything (so far still free). But the junior scientists who lead much of this work need peer-reviewed publications (and sadly the name of the journal still matters way too much in evaluations) so this solves only part of the problem.

040

Stand Up for Science! @standupforscience.net · 19/05/2025

An easily overlooked consequence of research funding cancellations: completed research these days requires hundreds to several thousand dollars to be published due to publication fees from journals. Without support for these fees many pieces of scientific work will be near invisible.

2246

Reposted by Marc Lipsitch

🎓 The GOP’s reconciliation bill is a direct hit on higher ed: – $351B in cuts education & workforce programs – eliminating subsidized student loans – Taxes on scholarships & endowments – & more. ACE calls it a “full-out assault” on access to college. Read below ⬇️ www.acenet.edu/News-Room/Pa...

acenet.edu

House Reconciliation Bill Targets Higher Education with Deep Cuts and Tax Hikes

A budget reconciliation bill advancing in the House of Representatives proposes hundreds of billions of dollars in cuts to student aid, imposes new taxes on colleges and universities, and jeopardizes ...

113282

Reposted by Marc Lipsitch

Linda Barlow @bizzarlow.bsky.social · 20/05/2025

Proposed cut to NIH for fiscal 2026- $18 billion www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...

whitehouse.gov

025

Reposted by Marc Lipsitch

Megan Behringer @megbehri.bsky.social · 09/05/2025

Given that there are 435 voting members of Congress, I would have hoped for more than 25% of House members to support American innovation in science and technology. 112? That’s it? No one else wants answers?!?!

0157

Marc Lipsitch @mlipsitch.bsky.social · 24/04/2025

Model-ish pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/306628/ and its modern update pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37669395/ Also model-ish pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28568016/ pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26066486/ Haven't read but hear great things www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1... pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37312496/

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Innate immune responses yield tissue-specific bottlenecks that scale with pathogen dose - PubMed

To cause infection, pathogens must overcome bottlenecks imposed by the host immune system. These bottlenecks restrict the inoculum and largely determine whether pathogen exposure results in disease. I...