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Ted Knutson

@mixedknuts.bsky.social
7.4K followers 229 following 2.2K posts

Founder, StatsBomb, Variance Incorporated. @thetransferflow Daily Rumours newsletter www.thetransferflow.com/subscribe Frmr: Brentford FC, Pinnacle, SB

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Reposted by Ted Knutson
The Transfer Flow @thetransferflow.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
How likely are Man City to be expelled from the Premier League? @mixedknuts.bsky.social and @patrickbvs.bsky.social explain why they could be kicked out of the Football League entirely. Plus: which managers are on the hot seat? www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_CL...
youtube.com
Why the Premier League HAS Kick Out Man City
YouTube video by The Transfer Flow
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
I'm going to get myself into trouble about this on the podcast today.
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Reposted by Ted Knutson
The Transfer Flow @thetransferflow.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
We're up +17 since 9th September. +9 of that has come from MLS alone. MLS keeps going while Europe pauses for international break. Today's Variance Betting edition is entirely focused on it. Join here: www.thetransferflow.com/upgrade
thetransferflow.com
Upgrade | The Transfer Flow
FREE transfer newsletter with rumours + smart analysis from industry insiders.
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
It's been a good trip so far.
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Shared an elevator with Michelle Monaghan today, a spectacular celebrity crush since Kiss Kiss, Bang Bang. If you need me, I'll be floating up here on cloud 9.
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Being an Arsenal fan?
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
It's nice for you to have some football happiness for once.
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Love you, Kimbra
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
That is EXTREMELY Italy-coded behaviour.
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
6-0 to start the Variance Betting weekend in England after a +6 last week as well. Absolute flames coming from the analysis column. We might still have it*. * we do not believe in jinxes. (Most days.)
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Reposted by Ted Knutson
The Transfer Flow @thetransferflow.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Man United had a man advantage for 70 minutes vs City and created nothing. Full episode covers: • Why United can't break teams down • Spurs still haven't scored • Arsenal survive Sunderland thanks to Raya's insane save • Should Liverpool sell Wirtz? Plus: Hull's shockingly good start to the season
youtube.com
Man United Are Exactly What We Thought They Were
YouTube video by The Transfer Flow
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Reposted by Ted Knutson
dub @movingthrough.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
'Welcome to Chelsea, the delightfully weird player trading hedge fund that masquerades as a football team on weekends.' He's not wrong tbf lol
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
I would like to thank Raul Jimenez for his service in producing a lovely little opening weekend of Variance Betting - Championship action. Otherwise that Blades v Wolves match was pretty dreadful.
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Fantastic lede.
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Just like the real ones!
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Bruh, do you even lift? ;p
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
If you'd like to follow our analysis during the busiest time of the gambling, the link is here. We cover English Premier League, English Championship, UEFA CL and MLS on a round by round basis. www.thetransferflow.com/upgrade
thetransferflow.com
Upgrade | The Transfer Flow
FREE transfer newsletter with rumours + smart analysis from industry insiders.
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
MLS on Variance Betting went 4 for 4 midweek, which felt nice after getting beat up on small bets for the early Premier League schedule. Eng Champ comes online for us today too, which means the newsletter is now BUSY. Fun fact: Newcastle are currently averaging 20 shots conceded per match.
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Reposted by Ted Knutson
The Transfer Flow @thetransferflow.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Truly a wild batch of transfer grades today: • City nearly spend £500m • Liverpool break the British record again • Hull sign 18 players • Ipswich take crazy risks And also: • Leeds were just sensible and normal www.thetransferflow.com/p/transfer-g...
thetransferflow.com
£466m later, did Manchester City get worse?
Plus transfer grades for Liverpool, Hull, Ipswich and Leeds
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Reposted by Ted Knutson
The Transfer Flow @thetransferflow.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
We liked Chelsea's business, but today's transfer grades feature some of our more negative evaluations for: • Crystal Palace • Coventry • Everton • Fulham www.thetransferflow.com/p/chelsea-we...
thetransferflow.com
Chelsea went on a player trading frenzy
Plus transfer grades for Coventry, Palace, Everton and Fulham
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
The next installment of our Transfer Grades is about to drop. Every year Fulham fans seem to get grumpy with me because I don't like their window. But I did like ONE deal this summer. (Even if I mostly hated their window again. You'll have to read them to find out why.)
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Arsenal probably won't get this level of production out of Tzolis in the Premier League, but the early signs are very promising.
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Okay Luka Vuskovic, I am totally paying attention now.
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Reposted by Ted Knutson
The Transfer Flow @thetransferflow.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
It's transfer grades season! All coming out this week for the Premier League, starting with: • Arsenal • Aston Villa • Bournemouth • Brentford • Brighton www.thetransferflow.com/p/transfer-g...
thetransferflow.com
Transfer grades: Arsenal bolster title favorite squad
Plus Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Brentford, and Brighton
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
They got SMOOSHED yday and Tzolis was a huge problem that they could not easily solve. Should be easier against teams that have better 1v1 matchups. But still early early tactically and messy
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Took my youngest for the first time. Emirates atmosphere was GREAT today.
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
It's been a while...
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
These early season results are a good reminder why I try to never be degenerate in the Variance Betting column. Same lessons, decade after decade.
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Reposted by Ted Knutson
The Transfer Flow @thetransferflow.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Chelsea spent over €400m and turned a profit. Spurs spent a fortune and can't win a game. Patrick and Ted break down the winners and losers of the summer transfer window: · Man City's big midfield spend · Liverpool's missed targets and the Gakpo saga · The worst windows in the league
youtube.com
Winners And Losers Of The Summer Transfer Window
YouTube video by The Transfer Flow
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
I believe the two of you could execute this exact thing, sooooo
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Reposted by Ted Knutson
VeGOREpunk AuHORROR @vegapunk-aurora.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
*Mr Beast voice* I HELPED THIS WOMAN TURN A ROOM FULL OF STRAW INTO GOLD USING ONLY A SPINNING WHEEL! IF SHE CAN'T GUESS MY NAME IN THREE DAYS, I'M TAKING HER BABY!
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
That was one of the weirdest, most fascinating transfer windows I can remember. Huge money spent everywhere. Some teams filled holes, others accidentally created them. Incredible theatre. 10 out of 10.
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Reposted by Ted Knutson
Jessica Smetana @jessicasmetana.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Just want to linger on this for one more second
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
Tell me you are OCD without telling me you are OCD?
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Perfect. No notes.
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
We have so many receipts where this is not the case! Same for Kim on Reijnders. Ya'll don't live in these taek mean streets.
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
LOLed at this during the morning finance call.
static.klipy.com
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Who has been saying for two full seasons now that Sanchez is not the answer in Chelsea goal? 🤔 @thetransferflow.bsky.social
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City Tactics @city-tactics.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
If your winger presses their centre back, the gap between your full back and their full back will, more often than not, be too big to make up.
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
If you missed them last week, TTF has their season previews available and the reviews from fans are excellent. I also wanted to add enormous props to @kimischilling.bsky.social for all the hard work to make these happen. If you love the newsletter, please lend us your support.
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Tons of stuff from real engineers across every industry, with a fraction of the manpower? Release velocity across every decent team has gotten way faster. Maybe your "vibe code" definition is the element we disagree on, but what's happening is the craziest inflection point on coding maybe ever?
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
I don't know how to tell you this gently, but you are completely and utterly wrong about vibe coding and the sample size on this is enormously large around the world. You still have to enforce engineering principles, but it's been an amazing choice for not quite a year now.
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Speaking of downgrades from the preseason predictions - life comes at you quickly.
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Dear Lord, what a monstering in West London from the Bees. Di Zerbi has so much work to do just to make Spurs competent again.
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 22/08/2026
They rejected everything this summer.
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Reposted by Ted Knutson
The Transfer Flow @thetransferflow.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Ipswich-Sunderland might be the most consequential opening week game in the Premier League. Plus: • Why we think Cole Palmer is underrated in FPL • Games we're watching • Stuff we're reading www.thetransferflow.com/p/the-premie...
thetransferflow.com
The Premier League has a relegation 6-pointer in Week 1
Plus FPL tips, games we're watching and stuff we're reading.
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
On the flip side, we usually wait until after match week five before we do gambling analysis to let the models take initial shape. This season, that starts next week. Rationale: Adding smart human analysis should help results while the bookie models are stuck in last season.
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Ted Knutson @mixedknuts.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Normally I would have produced EPL Futures for Variance Betting this week. HOWEVER, I feel like there is SO MUCH CHANGE in the league (and still some to come before the deadline), futures betting there is nearly impossible. It's the first time I have felt that in ages.
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Reposted by Ted Knutson
The Transfer Flow @thetransferflow.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
The Premier League kicks off today! Wouldn't it be cool if someone wrote detailed analysis with stats and graphics covering what you can expect from every single team? www.thetransferflow.com/p/the-transf...
thetransferflow.com
The Transfer Flow's 2026-27 Premier League season preview
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