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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 18h

It would have been so much smarter if the US, EU, Canada and Australia all set up a united front against China back in 2017.

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Which means that either someone else will have to hold US debt (but that will require higher yields) or China will still hold it (provided the yield is high enough).

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

I’m not one bit surprised about this. We’ve reached tipping point in many countries around the world where social breakdown is practically irreversible. And the US is one of those places too. Yes, Dems will win this time and in 2028. But that’s won’t be the end of it.

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Michael Pettis @michaelpettis.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

China News Update: "There is an awkward question lurking beneath this enormous restructuring: if a struggling bank disappears into a bigger bank, where does its bad debt go?" chinanewsupdate.com/chinas-banki...

chinanewsupdate.com

China’s Bank Closures: Why Mergers Won’t Erase Bad Debt Risk

China is consolidating banks at unprecedented speed, while Britain weighs EV tariffs and Taiwan faces growing uncertainty. The key question: where does bad debt go when weak lenders disappear?

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Katie Martin @katie0martin.ft.com · 05/10/2026

FT STOCK PICKING GAME </GO> pit your wits and see if you can beat the supermarket manager from Surrey who made 36% last time. 🎩 (If *he* beats that then a hedge fund somewhere needs to sign him up) as.ft.com/r/493895dd-6...

as.ft.com

The FT’s stock picking game starts today

Take on other subscribers in a race to win £1,000

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

#Fed rate hike bets plummet (blue line) implied probability of a Fed #hike in Oct 2026: 18.3% (yellow line) implied probability of a #Fed hike in Dec 2026: 78.9% chart @bloomberg.com TV live

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Another way Middle Ages mentality creeps in. Build your own fortress and defend it.

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

France is in trouble. Risk of contagion in focus. Greek yields are slightly up today, Italian are flat.

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

It was very alarming in early 2025. But the level of alarm in Europe has dropped significantly by now. Dare I say that by mid 2027 there will be fairly little alarm left and by around 2029 America might be more alarmed at what it had done to itself

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Allison Gill @muellershewrote.com · 03/10/2026

Alito weighs retirement. We MUST win the Senate so we can block any Trump judicial nominee. www.politico.com/news/2026/10...

politico.com

Justice Alito confirms he is considering retirement

The conservative Supreme Court justice said in a CBS News interview that he’ll revisit the issue next year.

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Robert Kennedy’s political path is absolutely astonishing. Starting as a staffer for Joseph McCarthy, being one of the technocrats in the morally rudderless Kennedy administration and finally transforming himself into a crusader for and the moral consciousness of the American progressivism

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

“I am the house.” - Sept 8 “I can’t control the bond market.” - Oct 3 @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

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acemaxx analytics @acemaxx.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

#German Govt #debt has emerged as the pre-eminent haven in the global bond rout, as concerns about an overheating US economy and fiscal worries elsewhere in Europe leave investors with few other places to turn, chart @data.ft.com www.ft.com/content/9302...

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Just Kris @justkris2.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Maga and half of the ignorant US Congress.

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

This is an optimistic view that presumes that America will turn out to have sufficient social cohesion to sustain a big revamp.

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

The advent of Digital Feudalism in three phases

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Hard to imagine that one weak jobs report will stop the regime change that is afoot

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

So the yield on the German 10Y Bund is back where it was a month ago. While the US 10Y is 9% up over the same period. What a reversal to the storyline that only Europe has yield and inflation problems while the US is all great.

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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 30/09/2026

I for one think it’s bad that the president can just say crazy stuff all day every day and 99% of it doesn’t make the news because we’ve normalized having an insane president

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

In America the wealth per household of the 0.1% is $186 million. The wealth of the bottom 50% per household is $63,000. Source: WSJ

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Those rich Americans don’t give a toss about the poor

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

That “side” is constantly overplaying everything

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

To me it’s more code for: we’ve lost our way, we are fearful and we can’t handle our current challenges

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

A key thing to watch is Starships heat shield or the thermal protection system (TPS). How much damage it sustained, how rapidly it can be checked and replaced if needed, and how much all that will cost.

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

So far so good. The crucial question will be how much refurbishment would Starship need before launching it again.

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

American society in a state of breakdown and early stages of disintegration

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Why are rates going up now? My feeling is that it’s because of the perfect cocktail of reasons all flashing red alarm, all at once. After years of low rates just one factor flashing red wasn’t enough.

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

What makes LLMs smarter than the AI engineers that build them is that LLMs are for sure not ignorant But I wonder why a smart AI engineer isn’t smart enough to realise how ignorant he is and use the anti-ignorance tool he’s built to compensate for that

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Robert Reich @rbreich.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

On this day in 1994, the Clinton administration's heathcare reform plan was declared "dead" by Congress. Over 30 years later, the US is still the only industrialized country without universal healthcare. This should be a national outrage.

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

This is what makes me believe that AI is not really smart even in its current advanced versions (this was Gemini Flash Extended) I caught it making an error again and investigated why it happened.

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MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

🇫🇮🇸🇪✈️ Finnish and Swedish fighter jets conducted their first joint operational mission to intercept and identify Russian military aircraft over the Gulf of Finland on September 24. The mission involved Finnish F/A-18 Hornet and Swedish JAS 39 Gripen.

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

If America steadfastly adhered to its proclaimed principles and if America adapted to the new economic realities rather than just cater to a clique of super rich, then keeping the American era on and on would not have been a bad thing

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

It may turn out to be a short wait

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

I agree that it’s not (exactly) a leadership problem. It’s a deep structural problem of breakdown of the old broad consensus. Those “good” leaders of the past wouldn’t be good if they were teleported today to lead us.

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

The latest Ezra Klein podcast shows that the heavy AI regulatory burden in China is not a hurdle for burgeoning innovation. Incidentally, California happens to have some of the strictest consumer and data privacy regulations yet it’s the Mecca of global innovation. open.spotify.com/episode/5POw...

open.spotify.com

The ‘But China!’ Dilemma Driving the A.I. Race

The Ezra Klein Show · Episode

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Gemini on Gemini’s own security incident: it’s not super intelligence, it’s the profound lack of common sense that caused the incident

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

The latest Ezra Klein podcast shows that the heavy AI regulatory burden in China is not a hurdle for burgeoning innovation. Incidentally, California happens have some of the strictest consumer and data privacy regulations yet it’s the Mecca of global innovation. open.spotify.com/episode/5POw...

open.spotify.com

The ‘But China!’ Dilemma Driving the A.I. Race

The Ezra Klein Show · Episode

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

So Gemini tells me that Hugging Face happened with all safeguards deliberately disabled. Had they been in place, the standard corporate guardrails would have shut the rogue AI agent in seconds. Question was: how come the world is not already replete with rogue AI agents incidents?

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Yahoo Finance @yahoofinance.com · 18/09/2026

California is taking direct action on AI regulation with a new executive order signed by Governor Gavin Newsom. The mandate sets a 60-day deadline to evaluate strict new safety rules, including required emergency shutoffs for advanced AI systems.

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

European AI companies say no to AI slowdown, accuse American behemoths of regulatory capture. Antitrust exemptions for AI? Much harder for the Americans to sell that to the world without support from the powerful DG Competition in Brussels.

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Roaring 20s Redux @mishoiliev.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

Europe relying on F-35 is now becoming a security issue. But sadly European won’t have a sovereign battle-ready stealth fighter jet before 2035. Not to mention that ramping up production would probably take another five years

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