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The Military Emissions Gap

@militaryemissions.org
1.3K followers 1.5K following 237 posts

We monitor and analyse military and conflict emissions data and advocate for accountability for the military's contribution to the climate crisis, a @ceobs.org project. www.militaryemissions.org

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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 13/10/2026
While NDCs are quiet on the climate impact of militaries, multiple countries reference how conflict is a barrier to climate mitigation and adaptation with impacts like damage to ecosystems, increased vulnerability and hits to financial investment.
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 22/09/2026
How are climate change, conflict and peace connected? We spoke to @saferworld.bsky.social's Warpod and Mitzi Jonelle Tan about militaries and the transition away from fossil fuels, after the Santa Marta conference held earlier this year. Listen here: www.saferworld-global.org/multimedia/w...
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 26/08/2026
It's encouraging seeing growing numbers of researchers engaging with the challenge of estimating conflict GHG emissions. This Dutch team used Material Flow Analysis, finding that two months of Russia's invasion of Ukraine equalled the monthly emissions of Denmark link.springer.com/content/pdf/...
Abstract text reads: Abstract
Modern warfare generates enormous but mostly unquantified material and energy flows, yet no standardised method exists
to measure its material footprint. This study develops a standardised and structured Material Flow Analysis (MFA) framework to quantify the war-exclusive material footprint, specifically focusing on material use in modern warfare. Building on
principles of army doctrine and NATO supply classification, the framework identifies relevant material classes, including
fuels, fortification materials, ammunition, repair parts, and medical waste, and categorises them by functional military platforms within the air, ground, naval and defensive domains. The model operationalises these flows through a quartile-based
intensity approach, parameterised with industry-relevant proxies and assumptions, and finally tested with data from two
case studies: the Russia-Ukraine War (2022) and Operation Desert Storm (1991). Results show that warfare operates at an
industrial scale: Within a two-month window, total CO2 emissions reach approximately 6 Mt for the Russia-Ukraine War
and 28 Mt for Desert Storm, equalling the monthly emissions of Denmark and the Dutch industrial sector, respectively. In
mass terms, the model indicates 8–10 Mt of fuels and ammunition are mobilised over two months, comparable to the global
monthly cement trade or Sweden’s steel output. Fuel accounts for 70–80% of the mass flow. Ammunition dominates the
remainder, while fortification materials add merely hundreds of kilotons. By capturing only the active warfare component,
the study shows that 126 Mt CO2 is emitted in the first three years of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The framework provides
a reproducible foundation for quantifying the environmental consequences of warfare.
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 08/06/2026
This week, we’re at the UNFCCC June Climate Meetings talking about militarism and climate breakdown. Our Researcher Grace joins a side event today at 12 CEST to share the latest on military emissions underreporting in the UNFCCC - if you’re in Bonn, join us!
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 24/04/2026
We will be addressing this topic with friends in Santa Marta, sharing our hopes for ambitious transition roadmaps and exploring what a Just Transition means for peace and security on a local and international level. Register to join us in person or online here: peaceboat.org/english/news...
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 24/04/2026
We are in Santa Marta, Colombia for the First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels. Previous climate frameworks have failed to address militaries, yet both climate breakdown and rising militarism are increasingly urgent problems. Will governments in Santa Marta break the mould?
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 18/03/2026
The #Iran war is disrupting fossil fuel supply chains but while states increasingly recognise that renewables reduce exposure to geopolitical shocks, there are dangers that emergency energy policies will lock-in emissions and energy insecurity ceobs.org/dont-lock-in... @fossiltreaty.bsky.social
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 24/02/2026
Today marks 4 years since Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine. The latest report from the Initative on GHG Accounting of War finds that the invasion has resulted in emissions comparable to the annual emissions of France and could cause over $57 billion of climate damages. report6en.warbon.org
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 29/12/2025
The populist and extreme right would love military sustainability, and environmental and climate security discourse, to be a culture war issue. It's quite important that they are called out on this, at least on the platforms populated by humans.
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 05/12/2025
While the International Criminal Court's new environmental policy guidance considers the atmosphere part of the "natural environment" this explicit mention of atmospheric damage in relation to the crime of aggression is of particular relevance for conflict GHG emissions.
Text reads: 47. Nearly all of the acts of aggression enumerated in article 8bis(2) can either be directed against or damage the environment.97 Bombing the territory of a State, for example, will often cause the death of animals, destroy and pollute fields, forests, and bodies of water, contaminate the air, and impact safe climate. Similarly, the invasion of a State may lead to the illegal exploitation of natural resources or the illegal dispossession of land – including its formal annexation.
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 18/11/2025
At COP30, Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy, Environment & Agriculture has announced a $43 billion claim from Russia for the climate damage caused by the invasion, based on conflict emissions calculations by the Initiative on GHG Accounting of War.
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 11/11/2025
Next week, the Ministry of Economy, Environment and Agriculture of Ukraine joins @ecodiya.bsky.social and the Initiative on GHG accounting of War to call for accountability for the climate damage caused by Russia’s invasion, featuring @tonyagotha.bsky.social, @laurencetubiana.bsky.social and more.
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 11/11/2025
On Saturday, the Initiative on GHG accounting of war and @ecodiya.bsky.social are at the Ukraine pavilion sharing the latest data on the climate damage caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine.
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 11/11/2025
Our main side event takes place on Friday, where speakers from @ceobs.org, @sipri.org, @qmul.bsky.social Humanity and Inclusion, @ecodiya.bsky.social and the Initiative on the GHG accounting of War will outline the full extent of how conflicts impact the climate and what the UNFCCC can do about it.
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 11/11/2025
On Thursday, we’re joining @wilpf.bsky.social, IPPNW, Peace Boat and @peacetrack.bsky.social to share our latest analysis on the Military Emissions Gap as we explore the climate cost of militarism.
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 11/11/2025
As #COP30 kicks off in Belém, here’s where you can find @ceobs.org and friends across the next two weeks:
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 09/10/2025
How has 3 years of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine impacted emissions? The latest report from IGGAW escalates the climate damage of the war to over £43bn, with emissions matching the annual outputs of Austria, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia combined. en.ecoaction.org.ua/climate-dama...
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 11/07/2025
The 'Big Beautiful Bill' is set to push the US Dept of Defense budget towards a record $1 trillion. According to @cplusc.bsky.social, this will make US military and its industrial apparatus the 38th largest emitter in the world. Read more here: climatecommunityinstitute.substack.com/p/1-trillion...
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 21/06/2025
It's #ShowYourStripes Day. We still don't know how great a contribution the GHG emissions from militaries and armed conflicts are making to these temperature increases but with military spending rising, it's vital that we figure it out, and fast. showyourstripes.info
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 16/06/2025
Almost 12 hours after its intended start time, the Bonn intersectional climate talks are about to begin, apparently delayed by difficulties agreeing the agenda. What we do know is that once more, military emissions are not on the formal agenda of this year’s talks.
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 13/06/2025
The Brazilian #COP30 Presidency has been comparatively silent on the linkages between #ClimateFinance and military spending, and between conflicts, militarism and emissions. Lula's acknowledgement of the former this week is therefore welcome. agenciagov.ebc.com.br/noticias/202...
Text of speech: "Last year, we left the Baku COP with results below expectations. To reverse this situation, the Brazilian presidency of COP30 and Azerbaijan are building a Baku-Belém roadmap. Despite the efforts of the Spanish government, everything indicates that the Seville Conference on Financing for Development will face the same difficulties. In 2024, rich countries reduced Official Development Assistance by 7%. Its military expenditure, on the other hand, grew by 9.4%. This shows that there is no lack of money. What is lacking is the willingness and political commitment to finance it."
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 19/05/2025
TOR for the UK #JetZero task force: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/68233b... Military aviation is not in scope, but "shared learnings or significant trade-offs will be considered appropriately."
Excerpt: The Jet Zero Taskforce has been established to bring together all parts of the sector to
address system-wide barriers to aviation decarbonisation. The specific objectives of the
Taskforce are to:
1. Support the development, production, commercialisation and use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) in the UK and globally.
2. Facilitate the development and deployment of zero emission aircraft in the UK, including through unlocking regulatory, infrastructure and commercialisation barriers. 3. Explore opportunities to make efficiency gains in reducing carbon emissions across the whole UK aviation system, including through development and deployment of more efficient aircraft, and the potential for greater operational efficiencies.
4. Consider the aviation sector’s future demand for energy, feedstocks, hydrogen and greenhouse gas removals.
5. Recognise that aviation has significant non-CO2 impacts on the climate, with further work required to strengthen our scientific understanding
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 24/02/2025
Today marks 3 years since the start of Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine. The war has caused an estimated 230 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent - around the same as the annual emissions of Austria, Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia combined. en.ecoaction.org.ua/climate-dama...
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 11/02/2025
Interesting to see 'hidden emissions: the direct and indirect impacts of armed conflicts' highlighted as an emerging issue in the latest @eea.europa.eu horizon scanning report: www.eionet.europa.eu/etcs/etc-st/...
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 05/02/2025
www.climate.mil a major climate portal on the Department of Defense’s website has been scrapped. This is how it looked as per 21 Feb. Colleagues @responsiblesci.bsky.social have archived data should you need it. #ClimateCrisis
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 30/01/2025
Today, the UK launched its ambitious NDCs, stating that ‘climate action must be an economy-wide target, covering all sectors’ - no prizes for guessing which sector isn't included? www.gov.uk/government/p...
A screenshot of the first page of the UK's latest Nationally Determined Contribution, with the text 'United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland's 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution. Presented to Parliament by the Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero by Command of His Majesty. January 2025'
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 19/12/2024
The US Army and US Navy both have targets to reach a 50% reduction in emissions by 2030, joining the federal commitment to be net-zero by 2050, outlined in their climate strategies. Does to failure to integrate these strategies into the updated NDCs suggest a lack of commitment?
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 19/12/2024
The US has published its updated Nationally Determined Contribution, the plan mandated by the Paris Agreement which sets the path to net zero. It will come as a shock to no one that the plan fails to address the largest user of fossil fuels in the US government - the military.
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 10/12/2024
An earlier draft of this year's NDAA featured this proposal to figure out emissions from non-tactical vehicles but was, as ever short of radical decarbonisation policies. 4/n
SEC. 316. STUDY AND REPORT ON THE GREENHOUSE GAS AND TOXIC POLLUTANT 
              EMISSIONS OF THE PRODUCTION AND UTILIZATION OF NON-
              TACTICAL VEHICLES OF THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE.

    (a) Study.--The Comptroller General of the United States shall 
conduct and submit to the Secretary of Defense a study on the 
greenhouse gas and toxic pollutant emissions lifecycle in the 
production and utilization of electric non-tactical vehicles over the 
lifetime of the vehicle relative to a comparable model of non-tactical 
vehicle possessing an internal combustion engine, which shall include--
            (1) the estimated reduction in carbon emissions associated 
        with the adoption of electric vehicles across the non-tactical 
        vehicle fleet;
            (2) a comparative analysis of non-tactical efficiency, 
        maintenance costs, and lifecycle emissions of electric vehicles 
        versus traditional combustion engine vehicles; and
            (3) a cost-benefit analysis of investing in electric 
        vehicle infrastructure versus the fully burdened costs, 
        advantages, and disadvantages of internal combustion engines 
        for non-tactical use by the Department of Defense.
    (b) Report.--Not later than 120 days after receipt of the results 
of the study under subsection (a), the Secretary of Defense shall 
submit to Congress a report on the use of electric vehicles by the 
Armed Forces, which shall include--
            (1) an assessment of non-tactical capabilities to determine 
        different mission profiles and scenarios, including deployment 
        in combat zones, logistic support, and personnel and equipment 
        transportation by electric vehicles;
            (2) an estimation of the expected lifespan and durability 
        of electric vehicles under non-tactical conditions by assessing 
        the reliability of key components such as batteries, electric 
        motors, and powertrains and an evaluat…
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 10/12/2024
Responsibility for this lies with the Republican-run House Armed Services Committee. It fought against a range of race, gender and climate components of the #NDAA as part of its "focus on lethality". Climate was viewed as part of this "woke agenda" 2/n
apologies, embedded text in a PDF prevents copying but it essentially lays out what is being to done to prevent a military green new deal. Apologies, embedded text but it lays out the Armed Services Committee's agenda for restoring the focus of the military on lethality
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 10/12/2024
House Republicans look to have successfully stripped #ClimateChange from 2025's $895bn National Defense Authorization Act (#NDAA) with this amendment. In a sign of what the next 4 years look likely to bring, climate change has been branded part of the woke agenda. 1/n h/t @stephensemler.bsky.social
SEC. 319. PROHIBITION ON IMPLEMENTATION OF REGULA19 TION RELATING TO MINIMIZING RISK OF CLI20 MATE CHANGE. None of the funds authorized to be appropriated by this Act or otherwise made available for the Department of Defense for fiscal year 2025 may be used to finalize or implement any rule based on the advanced notice of proposed rulemaking titled ‘‘Federal Acquisitiontion: Minimizing the Risk of Climate Change in Federal Acquisitions’’ (October 15, 2021; 86 Fed. Reg. 57404)
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 10/12/2024
Thanks for the heads up, that's quite something, and quite depressing. Whereabouts are we in the finalisation process for the NDAA 2025?
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 20/11/2024
At Ukraine’s #COP29 pavilion, Deputy Minister Victoriya Kyreeva, Mary Robinson, and Lennard de Klerk are carrying on the conversation about how conflicts impact climate change and how these impacts reach beyond Ukraine.
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 19/11/2024
Today marks 1,000 days since the full scale invasion of Ukraine. Yesterday we joined Ukraine’s Ministry of Environmental Protection, Lennard de Klerk and Dr Ben Neimark at #COP29 to share how research estimating the emissions from the invasion can help us understand the climate impacts of other wars
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 18/11/2024
TODAY at #COP29 - side events on conflict and military GHG emissions. The events will present a new methodology for tracking conflict emissions, and hear about emerging practice in military emissions reporting and decarbonisation.
COP29 side event: Measuring climate impacts across the cycle of armed conflicts   18 Nov 2024 | 15:00-16:30 Baku, 11:00-12:30 GMT | SE Room 9 and streamed online 
At this 'COP of Peace', the GHG emissions associated with armed conflicts remain largely ignored, and absent from UNFCCC data. This event will launch a novel methodology for estimating conflict emissions to begin remedying this. Using examples from Ukraine and the Middle East, speakers will explore its value and how it can be used by conflict-affected states and researchers throughout the cycle of armed conflicts. 
Speakers Viktoriia Kyreieva | Deputy Minister, Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources, Ukraine Bakyt Dzhusupov | Ambassador, Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Lennard de Klerk | Initiative on GHG Accounting of War  Benjamin Neimark | Queen Mary University of London Ellie Kinney | Conflict and Environment Observatory COP29 side event Transparent military emissions reporting and the path to military decarbonisation   18 Nov 2024 | 16:45-18:15 Baku / 12:45-14:15 GMT | SE Room 8 / Streamed online 
Estimates suggest that militaries are responsible for 5.5% of global emissions but the sector is largely overlooked within the UNFCCC. This event will highlight progress in military emissions reporting, explore challenges to military decarbonisation and present a way forward for dealing with military emissions under the UNFCCC.

Speakers
Linsey Cottrell | Conflict and Environment Observatory Colonel Robert Šipec | Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Slovenia Simen Kirkhorn | Norwegian Defence Research Establishment Gabriela Manea | DCAF - Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance Thea Uhlich | Climate Change Performance Index
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 15/11/2024
The European Parliament has adopted its annual #ClimateChange resolution. Once again it calls on EU and its member states to help close the military emissions gap by formulating a proposal for the transparent accounting of military emissions to the UNFCCC. #COP29 1/2
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 15/11/2024
Ukrainian activists, coordinated by Ecoaction highlighted the connections between fossil fuels and Russia’s invasion. A new report from Razom We Stand has also called for more sanctions on Russian oil and gas to reduce global emissions and pave the way for peace. #COP29 3/5
Ukrainian campaigners from the NGO Ecoaction at COP29 with placards saying "Make Russia Pay"The cover of Razom We Stand's new report on Russian oil and gas exports.
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 15/11/2024
In yesterday’s action to ‘stop fuelling genocide’, Palestinians called for an energy embargo against Israel and activists led chants for “demilitarisation, collective liberation” 2/5
Pro-Palestinian activists protesting at COP29 behind a banner saying "Stop Fuelling Genocide".
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 12/11/2024
Positive to see voluntary action to improve the transparency of military emissions reporting in #Singapore's latest National GHG Inventory report unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 12/11/2024
TFW when you realise your research has been memed by the UN. #COP29
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 11/11/2024
A few useful insights into Indian naval decarbonisation policies in this recent paper library.imarest.org/record/11167...
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 08/11/2024
The second #COP29 side event will present a new methodology for tracking the greenhouse emissions associated with armed conflicts. #COP29Azerbaijan Both events are in-person or can be streamed online via the UNFCCC's Youtube events channel. 2/2
COP29 side event: Measuring climate impacts across the cycle of armed conflicts   18 Nov 2024 | 15:00-16:30 Baku, 11:00-12:30 GMT | SE Room 9 and streamed online 
At this 'COP of Peace', the GHG emissions associated with armed conflicts remain largely ignored, and absent from UNFCCC data. This event will launch a novel methodology for estimating conflict emissions to begin remedying this. Using examples from Ukraine and the Middle East, speakers will explore its value and how it can be used by conflict-affected states and researchers throughout the cycle of armed conflicts. 
Speakers Viktoriia Kyreieva | Deputy Minister, Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources, Ukraine Bakyt Dzhusupov | Ambassador, Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe Lennard de Klerk | Initiative on GHG Accounting of War  Benjamin Neimark | Queen Mary University of London Ellie Kinney | Conflict and Environment Observatory
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The Military Emissions Gap @militaryemissions.org · 08/11/2024
Excited to be collaborating on two #COP29 side events on 18/11. One explores emerging #military practice on greenhouse gas emissions reporting and decarbonisation. 1/2 #COP29Azerbaijan
COP29 side event Transparent military emissions reporting and the path to military decarbonisation   18 Nov 2024 | 16:45-18:15 Baku / 12:45-14:15 GMT | SE Room 8 / Streamed online 
Estimates suggest that militaries are responsible for 5.5% of global emissions but the sector is largely overlooked within the UNFCCC. This event will highlight progress in military emissions reporting, explore challenges to military decarbonisation and present a way forward for dealing with military emissions under the UNFCCC.

Speakers
Linsey Cottrell | Conflict and Environment Observatory Colonel Robert Šipec | Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Slovenia Simen Kirkhorn | Norwegian Defence Research Establishment Gabriela Manea | DCAF - Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance Thea Uhlich | Climate Change Performance Index
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