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Mike Franz

@mikefranz.bsky.social
623 followers 661 following 42 posts

Professor of Government at Bowdoin College Co-director, Wesleyan Media Project (@wesmediaproject.bsky.social & mediaproject.wesleyan.edu); policomm, polisci, interest groups, political advertising, campaign finance reform mikemfranz.com

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Reposted by Mike Franz
Wesleyan Media Project @wesmediaproject.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Advertisers have spent more on pro-Rep ads than pro-Dem ads in 9 of the top 10 Senate races. Ad spending continues to accelerate, with $4B spent to date & $1B in the last month. mediaproject.wesleyan.edu/releases-091... @efranklinfowler.bsky.social @mikefranz.bsky.social @tnridout.bsky.social
mediaproject.wesleyan.edu
Republicans Outspend Democrats in Most Top Senate Races; Ohio Leads Senate and Governor Ad Spending - Wesleyan Media Project
Banner Year for Broadcast Ad Volume in Spite of Increased Digital Ad Spend (MIDDLETOWN, CT) September 17, 2026 – Over the past month, advertisers have spent more on pro-Republican ads than pro-Democratic ads in nine of the top ten Senate races, with Georgia the only state breaking that trend, as Table 1 shows. “The political
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Reposted by Mike Franz
Wesleyan Media Project @wesmediaproject.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
💥NEW WMP report: Immigration & police top concerns for both parties in Senate races. Ad spending in the cycle to date approaches $3 billion. Report: mediaproject.wesleyan.edu/releases-081... @tnridout.bsky.social @efranklinfowler.bsky.social @mikefranz.bsky.social @wesleyanuniversity.bsky.social
mediaproject.wesleyan.edu
Immigration and Police Top Concerns for Both Parties in Senate Races - Wesleyan Media Project
In House, Dems focus more on cost of living; GOP discuss crime and taxes (MIDDLETOWN, CT) August 13, 2026 – Ads supporting Republicans and Democrats running for Senate this year have converged on the ...
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
Great State of Maine Air Show, as seen from Mere Creek Golf Course. A little loud, but some great views.
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Today is my first day as Associate Dean of the Curriculum at @bowdoincollege.bsky.social. Or is it “for the curriculum”? I’ve heard both. “Of” implies more power than “for.” Not sure which is better. 😬
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
“Should” or maybe “could.” Time will tell. Also, totals are for broadcast ad airings on live television for each election cycle.
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
At @wesmediaproject.bsky.social we measure ad sponsorship. Party-sponsored ads, independent and coordinated, have flagged in recent cycles. Yesterday’s decision should change the trend-line. For more, see this great analysis from @rickhasen.bsky.social electionlawblog.org?p=156997
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
$60M in ad spending to-date in ME Senate race. That's from our recent report (Table 5) at the @wesmediaproject.bsky.social mediaproject.wesleyan.edu/release-0618...
mediaproject.wesleyan.edu
Midterm Ad Discussion Revolves Around Trump - Wesleyan Media Project
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Do (some) Americans think they are saving democracy when they invest in the stock market? Maybe? I finally got around to writing up some results updating an old article of mine. mikemfranz.com/2026/06/17/m...
mikemfranz.com
Markodemocracy
Over 20 years ago, I was fortunate to write an article with Richard Merelman, a renowned political scientist at UW-Madison who wrote extensively on culture and politics. I was in graduate school in…
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Reposted by Mike Franz
Wesleyan Media Project @wesmediaproject.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
💥NEW WMP report: Past Two Weeks Sees $210 Million in Ad Spending; $20 Million Spent on AI Ads This Cycle Full report: mediaproject.wesleyan.edu/releases-052... Report by: @tnridout.bsky.social, @efranklinfowler.bsky.social, and @mikefranz.bsky.social @wesleyanuniversity.bsky.social
mediaproject.wesleyan.edu
#
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Reposted by Mike Franz
Wesleyan Media Project @wesmediaproject.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
💥NEW WMP report: 2026 Midterm Political Ad Spending Reaches $1.7 Billion Full report: mediaproject.wesleyan.edu/releases-051... Report by: @tnridout.bsky.social @efranklinfowler.bsky.social @mikefranz.bsky.social @wesleyanuniversity.bsky.social #2026election #politicalads
mediaproject.wesleyan.edu
Ad spending totals $700 million in the past two months, reaching $1.7 billion cycle-to-date - Wesleyan Media Project
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
A fine Maine April day!!
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Reposted by Mike Franz
Wesleyan Media Project @wesmediaproject.bsky.social · 12/03/2026
💥 In case you missed our NEW WMP report from last week: 2026 midterm ad spending for U.S. House and U.S. Senate races reached $565M cycle-to-date. Read full report: mediaproject.wesleyan.edu/releases-030... Report by: @mikefranz.bsky.social @tnridout.bsky.social @efranklinfowler.bsky.social
mediaproject.wesleyan.edu
Midterm political ad spending reaches $565 million - Wesleyan Media Project
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Maine voters in 2024 overwhelmingly rejected a proposal to adopt a new state flag (below). Support/opposition was highly related to party enrollment by town. Party politics is everywhere.
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
And Q2 against Q1.
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
Maine voters weighed in on two ballot measures in Nov 2025. Q1 was about voter ID and absentee voting. Q2 concerned a red flag law for guns. Party enrollment by town strongly predicted outcomes. Q1 below. Q2 in comments.
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Reposted by Mike Franz
NPR @npr.org · 04/10/2025
The Federal Election Commission, which regulates campaign finance, has lost another member. But the FEC has actually been without a quorum for months, leaving the agency unable to do much of its work.
n.pr
The Federal Election Commission is down to 2 members. So its work is at a standstill
The Federal Election Commission, which regulates campaign finance, has lost another member. But the FEC has actually been without a quorum for months, leaving the agency unable to do much of its work.
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 04/10/2025
Best take I’ve seen on social media all week. I am a big fan of candy corn.
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
And while Weintraub is at the bottom of the graph, the Republicans at the top by comparison are more extreme on the scale.
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
www.nytimes.com/2024/06/10/u...
nytimes.com
A Democrat, Siding With the G.O.P., Is Removing Limits on Political Cash at ‘Breathtaking’ Speed (Published 2024)
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
The FEC is currently down to 3 of 6 commissioners. I've collected as many FEC votes as possible + scaled them. The data back up that Lindenbaum is pretty moderate in historical terms. Two others (Trainor, Broussard) are more polarized. Trump (illegally) fired Weintraub, who was left-most Dem.
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
Insert caveat here about ecological inference! 😀
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
R-squared for the models.
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
Maine Senate since 1954. Graph summarizes town-level regressions by cycle, controlling for partisan enrollment, population, and county effects. Not much to see pre-2020, but high Dem towns in 2020 bolted at a larger rate from Collins. Dem voters are ready. Can the pty take adv? Model fit below.
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Reposted by Mike Franz
Rick Hasen @rickhasen.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
President Trump Issues Dangerous Executive Order That Would Shift to Presidency More Power Over the Conduct of Federal Elections and Potentially Disenfranchise Millions of Voters electionlawblog.org?p=149153
electionlawblog.org
President Trump Issues Dangerous Executive Order That Would Shift to Presidency More Power Over the Conduct of Federal Elections and Potentially Disenfranchise Millions of Voters #ELB
I am still making my way through this new Trump executive order on election administration (helpfully posted by Chris Geidner). There is a lot in here, but let me make three four initial points as I s...
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
Great news!! In ‘23, I co-taught a course on the Ethics of AI. A central insight from that class: AI developers need students versed in the liberal arts to pressure them to think about the moral, political, ethical, and environmental implications of their models. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/24/t...
nytimes.com
Netflix’s Reed Hastings Gives $50 Million to Bowdoin for A.I. Program
The Netflix co-founder said he wanted his alma mater to become a leader in studying the consequences, and guiding beneficial uses, of artificial intelligence.
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
What's up w/Washington County? It was in the top 4 until 1980. This is partly a measurement effect, but also it seems that the share of Francos also dropped, from about 17 percent in 1960 (where foreign born was the numerator) to ~10 percent in 2021 (where any French or Canadian ancestry was).
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
Comparing percents across different metrics is not ideal, so I'm trying ranks within year.
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
In more recent years, the ACS is great for this (at the town-level!). Before 1990, we need to rely on metrics that tend to focus on country of origin or language used at home.
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
Maine has a close relationship w/Canada, and I'm working on measuring French-Canadian influence in Maine politics. Here are county-level ranks using available Census data back to 1910. Same four counties have historically had the most French ancestry. (Measuring this is not easy!)
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 02/03/2025
Congrats to Bowdoin Women’s basketball for their NESCAC Championship. Packed gym. Epic comeback! An “instant classic”!
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Reposted by Mike Franz
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
“Why don't you wear a suit? You're at the highest level in this country's office & you refuse to wear a suit. A lot of Americans have problems with you not respecting the office.”
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Reposted by Mike Franz
Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
The DOGE firings have nothing to do with “efficiency” or “cutting waste.” They’re a direct push to weaken federal agencies perceived as liberal. This was evident from the start, and now the data confirms it: targeted agencies overwhelmingly those seen as more left-leaning. 🧵⬇️
Scatterplot titled “Empirical Evidence of Ideological Targeting in Federal Layoffs: Agencies seen as liberal are significantly more likely to face DOGE layoffs.”
	•	The x-axis represents Perceived Ideological Leaning of federal agencies, ranging from -2 (Most Liberal) to +2 (Most Conservative), based on survey responses from over 1,500 federal executives.
	•	The y-axis shows Agency Size (Number of Staff) on a logarithmic scale from 1,000 to 1,000,000.

Each point represents a federal agency:
	•	Red dots indicate agencies that experienced DOGE layoffs.
	•	Gray dots indicate agencies with no layoffs.

Key Observations:
	•	Liberal-leaning agencies (left side of the plot) are disproportionately represented among red dots, indicating higher layoff rates.
	•	Notable targeted agencies include:
	•	HHS (Health & Human Services)
	•	EPA (Environmental Protection Agency)
	•	NIH (National Institutes of Health)
	•	CFPB (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau)
	•	Dept. of Education
	•	USAID (U.S. Agency for International Development)
	•	The National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE), despite its conservative leaning (+1 on the scale), is an exception among targeted agencies.
	•	A notable outlier: the Department of Veterans Affairs (moderately conservative) also faced layoffs despite its size.

Takeaway:

The figure visually demonstrates that DOGE layoffs disproportionately targeted liberal-leaning agencies, supporting claims of ideological bias. The pattern reveals that layoffs were not driven by agency size or budget alone but were strongly associated with perceived ideology.

Source: Richardson, Clinton, & Lewis (2018). Elite Perceptions of Agency Ideology and Workforce Skill. The Journal of Politics, 80(1).
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 08/02/2025
The paper is "to be drafted." We've been working on getting the data in shape. The proj started as a focus on the Francos in ME politics. We needed a lot of town-level political data, and so I've spent the last year wrangling lots of files from the SecState that they dug out of the archives.
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
Interested in evidence of polarization in Maine? The graph looks at just enrolled Dems and Reps by year and cong dist (using current CD boundaries). Since about 2008, CD1 has become more Dem and CD2 has become more Rep. Not a surprise, perhaps, except that the chg is very recent.
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Reposted by Mike Franz
Ellen L. Weintraub @ellenlweintraub.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
Received a letter from POTUS today purporting to remove me as Commissioner and Chair of the FEC. There's a legal way to replace FEC commissioners-this isn't it. I've been so fortunate to serve the American people and stir up some good trouble along the way. That's not changing anytime soon.
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Reposted by Mike Franz
Trevor Potter @thetrevorpotter.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
🧵My statement in response to Trump illegally attempting to fire Federal Election Commission (FEC) Chair Ellen Weintraub: In claiming to fire a commissioner of the Federal Election Commission, the president violates the law, the separation of powers and generations of Supreme Court precedent. 1/
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
Thanks for the help @shennabellows.bsky.social.
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
Big thanks to Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows (and her office) for helping us get access to the town-level data over the decades. They scanned yearly pdf documents, and we moved them into Excel.
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
And because Bowdoin is in Brunswick, here is the change there:
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
Lots of Maine voters are "unenrolled" but this was inconsistently reported over the years. Today, about 30 percent of registered Maine voters are unenrolled with a party. This is down from high 30s in early 2000s.
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
Working on a project measuring party registration in Maine towns back to 1954. Here is the statewide % of registered Dems (looking only at Dems and Republicans). Big change from 1954 to late 1970s. (Been fun collaborating w/ Dave Emery and Chris Potholm).
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 13/01/2025
Congrats!!
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Reposted by Mike Franz
Daniel Drezner @dandrezner.bsky.social · 31/12/2024
My hottest take for the end of the year is that it is immensely more satisfying to cross things off a to-do list written on paper than any electronic equivalent.
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Reposted by Mike Franz
Brennan Center @brennancenter.org · 28/12/2024
Our new analysis shows that total online political advertising on Google and Meta alone topped $1.35 billion this election cycle.
brennancenter.org
Online Ad Spending in the 2024 Election Topped $1.35 Billion
Online political advertising surged in the weeks before the election, driven by candidates’ appeals to voters and national groups seeking to influence state ballot measure results.
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Reposted by Mike Franz
Travis N. Ridout @tnridout.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
TV advertising in 2024 presidential race was close to dead even. Our quick take on political advertising in this year's campaign. With @efranklinfowler.bsky.social and @mikefranz.bsky.social
electionanalysis.ws
Advertising trends in the 2024 presidential race - Election Analysis - United States
Prof. Travis N. Ridout Professor in the School of Politics, Philosophy and Public Affairs at Washington State University. He does research on political communication, political campaigns and advertisi...
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
I love tracking House & Senate forecasts. Thanks to Inside Elections (& @rubashkin.bsky.social) for keeping their regular House & Senate ratings open to see. Here is how Sen election ratings changed over 2024. Lots of stability, though TX moved in Dem direction. Select House races in comments.
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Mike Franz @mikefranz.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
Good points. I copied the Sides and Vavreck model from their book, but worth considering other economic indicators as well.
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