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Michael Fischer

@mikefischerwx.bsky.social
3K followers 289 following 52 posts

Assistant Professor at the University of Miami. Usually discussing hurricanes.

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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
The wind profile does seem unusually bottom heavy, which helps explain the typical reduction factor as well.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Hi Sam, I am here to try to help. TDR measured winds of 103 kt at 500 m above the surface. A student at UM and I have been working on a prototype ML model to reduce these winds to the surface using dropsonde data. That model (SEAR) yielded an estimate of 87 kt. More here: tcatlas.org/realtime_ir....
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Reposted by Michael Fischer
Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Today is the centennial of The Great Miami Hurricane's landfall in Miami. Approximately 12 days after exiting the African coast, a large Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph sustained winds slammed into southeast Florida around sunrise on September 18, 1926. bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/miam...
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Reposted by Michael Fischer
American Meteorological Society @ametsoc.org · 16/09/2026
New research led by @miamirosenstiel.bsky.social using nearly three decades of airborne radar observations identifies four features that help storms align before they intensify. Learn more: bit.ly/3SWH4Xm
bit.ly
Hurricane Hunter data reveal early signs of strengthening tropical cyclones
Nearly three decades of airborne radar observations identify four features that help storms align before they intensify.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
To summarize, quickly aligning TCs have stronger and more compact low-level circulations, stronger lower tropospheric ascent near the low-level center, and tend to have a tilt configuration oriented more left-of-shear than persistently tilted TCs.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Tropical Storm #Bertha is a sheared and tilted tropical cyclone. But many TCs start out this way. What factors determine whether a storm can become aligned and intensify? Well, that is exactly what we explored in our recent publication: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
The fireworks are starting early with #Bavi. Some explosive rapid intensification is likely to occur over the next 24 hours.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
It's the first day of hurricane season in the Atlantic. TC-ATLAS now features a real-time monitoring page with geostationary and microwave satellite data, real-time surface observations, and objective model forecasts from Google DeepMind. michaelfischerwx.github.io/TC-ATLAS/rea...
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
Hello friends, just a note that I have been steadily adding features over the last month+ to TC-ATLAS. This includes a real-time monitoring page for synoptic, subseasonal, and seasonal aspects. Examples attached. Check out more here: michaelfischerwx.github.io/TC-ATLAS/rea...
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Reposted by Michael Fischer
Alan Gerard @wxmanms1.bsky.social · 03/04/2026
News: WH released proposed FY27 budget, continuing to push plan to eliminate NOAA Research and massively cut Earth sciences - while NOAA grant data for FY2026 shows only 7 new grants so far compared to 379 in FY2025, further evidence of curtailed science budget execution. tinyurl.com/5e3ptub2
tinyurl.com
White House releases FY27 budget proposal, continuing plan of massive cuts to Earth science, including elimination of NOAA Research
NOAA grant data shows agency awarding grants at a much slower rate than previous years, likely showing administration strategy to reduce scientific spending through budget execution
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
Hello from 34k ft in the air as I’m headed to @AMSTropical. I just wanted to share that TC-ATLAS now features environmental diagnostics from ERA5 courtesy of TC-PRIMED and interactive NEXRAD radar data in the global archive page: michaelfischerwx.github.io/TC-ATLAS/ind...
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
Good idea. There should at least be a KML link in the global archive now. Still need to test it properly but hopefully this helps.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
Quick screenshot from my phone. Feel free to explore more here: michaelfischerwx.github.io/TC-ATLAS/glo...
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
One more new feature: The global archive page of TC-ATLAS now has a "models" toggle so you can review the evolution of past forecasts going back to 1991. Some notable examples of challenging forecasts below. michaelfischerwx.github.io/TC-ATLAS/ind...
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
Haha I did change over last weekend, but we shall find out :)
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
I wanted to create a helpful tool, especially for the research community, to better understand tropical cyclones. This is essentially a collection of multi-platform observations used to examine TC convective and vortex structure. Shout out to Claude for the help making this possible.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
To highlight some of the capabilities, users can draw custom vertical cross-sections, compute shear-relative quadrant means, explore 3D isosurfaces, overlay IR and microwave obs on tail Doppler radar analyses, and even compute custom composites.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
Interested in hurricanes? I want to introduce TC-ATLAS: the Tropical Cyclone Analysis Tool for Live and Archived Structure. Explore live or past storms without writing a line of code or downloading a data file, building on the capabilities of TC-RADAR: michaelfischerwx.github.io/TC-ATLAS/ind...
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
Unfortunately the sky was indeed the limit. Catastrophic #Melissa is on track to be the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the Atlantic in 90 years. Just absolutely gutted for the souls in Jamaica.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 26/10/2025
#Melissa is intensifying very rapidly this evening. TDR structure is nearly perfect for a TC of this intensity. Incredibly symmetric, strong eyewall, and a deep, aligned circulation. The sky is the limit. Very scary situation.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 26/10/2025
And here we go again with Hurricane #Melissa. RI ongoing and expected to continue.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 25/10/2025
Ground-based radar imagery from Jamaica shows the core has continued to become better defined over the last six hours. A potentially catastrophic situation unfolding for Jamaica. #Melissa
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 25/10/2025
#Melissa is about to undergo rapid intensification (RI). And I anticipate it will be quite explosive. A classic cyan ring on 37 GHz imagery from this GMI overpass at 1447 UTC.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
Two tropical cyclones churning in the western Atlantic. Here in FL, it’s business as usual. The power of modern meteorology.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 27/09/2025
This is one of the best satellite signatures I have ever seen in the SW Atlantic (non-Gulf/Caribbean). #Humberto is up there with storms like Andrew, Dorian, and Irma in my eyes.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 27/09/2025
Ugh, I just realized a typo in my original post. This should read 45 kt intensification in the previous 12 h and 55 kt in the previous 18 h. Nevertheless, extreme RI is still ongoing.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 27/09/2025
Update: Hurricane #Humberto has intensified 55 kt in the last 12 h… extreme RI ongoing. Anomalous upshear convection is again a tell for subsequent RI. Thankfully the storm is well away from land for now.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 26/09/2025
One hypothesis is that because you usually have some degree of downshear convection in all TCs, anomalous upshear convection results in a greater projection of diabatic heating onto the azimuthal mean. This can aid evacuation of mass out of the boundary layer and intensify the primary circulation.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 26/09/2025
Anomalous upshear convection is often associated with rapid intensification in hurricanes. Here is a schematic from my dissertation and a recent snapshot of Hurricane Humberto, which is experiencing westerly shear. Although Humberto is fairly compact, its structure suggests RI is ongoing.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
Hurricane #Erin looks poised to intensify, and likely rapidly.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
With anomalously weak trade winds, the eastern Main Development Region of the Atlantic has rapidly warmed over the last two weeks. Models suggest this flow pattern should largely continue, favoring additional warming.
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Reposted by Michael Fischer
Philippe Papin @pppapin.bsky.social · 18/06/2025
As of 6am CST 18 June #Erick is now a #hurricane & is likely starting rapid intensification, #RI, as a central dense overcast, #CDO, forms over the center. Hurricane warnings in effect for coastal #Mexico from Acapulco to Puerto Angel & Erick forecast to be near major hurricane at landfall.
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Reposted by Michael Fischer
American Meteorological Society @ametsoc.org · 17/04/2025
The 2026 budget passback plan calls for eliminating NOAA Research, the scientific backbone that keeps weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings accurate and effective. This would have disastrous consequences. Read the AMS statement, in partnership w/ @nwas.org: bit.ly/4cz2RtC
bit.ly
Stand Up for NOAA Research – The Time to Act is Now
The AMS is a global community committed to advancing weather, water, and climate science and service.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
Cyclone Errol is an extremely powerful storm. IR brightness temps in the eye are quite warm for a core that small. Reminds me of Milton in the Atlantic last year. And for my northern hemisphere friends, I have rotated the IR pattern to be consistent with a positive Coriolis value in the 2nd image.
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Reposted by Michael Fischer
Joseph Trujillo-Falcón @latinwx.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
68,845,865. That's how many individuals in the United States speak a language other than English at home. Everyone deserves a chance to stay safe during disasters, and I will never stop advocating for that. Thinking of all the communities that are going to be affected by this change.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 28/03/2025
Thank you to UAH for the opportunity and hospitality during my visit. I had a great time talking about hurricanes and machine learning with the folks there. And a special thanks to @tcblers.bsky.social for the invitation and a great time in Huntsville!
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Reposted by Michael Fischer
Brian McNoldy @bmcnoldy.bsky.social · 07/03/2025
Here's my annual blog post about the NOAA National Hurricane Center's updated "cone of uncertainty". Hopefully there are some tidbits in there that are new to you! Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and ends November 30. bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2025/03/2025...
bmcnoldy.blogspot.com
2025 "Cone of Uncertainty" Update & Refresher
Updates and summaries on tropical Atlantic activity... including easterly waves, tropical storms, subtropical storms, and hurricanes.
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Reposted by Michael Fischer
Dr. Levi Cowan @tropicaltidbits.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
Probationary employees across @NOAA and the @NWS are being terminated today, including those in mission-essential roles. My own wife is among them, essential to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center's 24/7 critical mission of seismic monitoring and tsunami prediction to protect the public.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 12/02/2025
Uh oh. Zelia is explosively intensifying at this point. The enclosed pink ring in 36 GHz imagery is typically a signal only seen in extremely intense TCs or those about to be extremely intense.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 12/02/2025
Off the northwest coast of Australia, Cyclone Zelia appears to be intensifying quite quickly. Some of the hurricane guidance brings the system up to the equivalent of category-5 intensity before landfall. Hopefully that’s overly aggressive.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 05/02/2025
Just feel like I’m stuck in a nightmare that I’m not waking up from. What was egregious yesterday is tame today. When will it stop?
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
To summarize: RI tends to occur in vortices that are anomalously tall and narrow and in TCs with anomalously deep convection in the TC inner core. We hypothesize this helps evacuate mass out of the boundary layer, leading to the inward advection of angular momentum surfaces.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
Based on those purple boxes above, we compute a metric of "vortex favorability" for RI. When plotted versus a metric of environmental favorability (smaller values of the "ventilation proxy" here), you can see RI occurs preferentially in certain vortex structures and environments.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
It turns out that the anomalous TC structure (relative to TC intensity) is closely related to the rate of intensity change. For example, here are composites of the observed and anomalous azimuthally-averaged tangential wind and vorticity for each intensity change group.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
One problem: TC vortex and convective characteristics are closely related to TC intensity. Our approach: Normalize these characteristics and explore the anomalous aspects. For example, here are standardized anomalies of azimuthally-averaged tangential wind for two cases.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
Here, we use TC-RADAR, which is a collection of over 1,100 airborne Doppler radar analyses of TCs sampled by NOAA aircraft over the last three decades to answer this question. We compare rapidly intensifying (RI), slowly intensifying (SI), and non-intensifying (NI) TCs.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
"Are rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones associated with unique vortex and convective characteristics?" Well, you can find out more here: doi.org/10.1175/MWR-... I'll summarize in the thread below.
doi.org
Are rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones associated with unique vortex and convective characteristics?
Abstract The largest tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecast errors are typically associated with episodes of rapid intensification (RI). Here, we explore whether TCs that undergo RI are associated w...
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
Xiaomin is an excellent scientist and friend of mine. If you’re interested in atmospheric science and grad school, here’s another great opportunity to explore.
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Michael Fischer @mikefischerwx.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Congratulations, Philippe! Keep up the great work!
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