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Michal Kranz

@michalkranz.bsky.social
1.1K followers 1.6K following 213 posts

Journalist | Eastern Europe + Middle East | Work in foreignpolicy.com, unherd.com, aljazeera.com, newlinesmag.com, thedailybeast.com, and more Newsletter: theeasternflank.substack.com Website: michalkranz.com

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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
“Putin’s aim will first be to break the alliance’s internal cohesion, and to exploit its central weakness in an age of hybrid warfare: that the cost of actually honoring Nato’s self-defense clause is too much for most members to contemplate.” My latest for @unherd.com: unherd.com/2026/09/russ...
unherd.com
Russia’s plot to break Nato
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
“The dispute is a microcosm of a much more fundamental tension between Poland and Ukraine that has been building ever since both countries’ international profile was dramatically elevated by the Russian invasion in 2022.” My latest analysis: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/poland-and...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Poland and Ukraine are fighting over much more than history
The dispute between the two countries reflects the changing balance of power in Europe
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 25/07/2026
“The dispute is a microcosm of a much more fundamental tension between Poland and Ukraine that has been building ever since both countries’ international profile was dramatically elevated by the Russian invasion in 2022.” My latest analysis: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/poland-and...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Poland and Ukraine are fighting over much more than history
The dispute between the two countries reflects the changing balance of power in Europe
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
The Iran War is here to stay, and for Eastern Europe, that means a much more unpredictable future than it is prepared for. My latest piece dives into how the conflict is changing the War in Ukraine, weakening NATO, and driving populism in the region: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/the-iran-w...
theeasternflank.substack.com
The Iran War is transforming Eastern Europe
The Middle East conflict is changing Ukraine, NATO, and the EU's power in the region
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
“The real danger to NATO is not that the US might leave the alliance, but that Trump is concerned less with collective defense and more with transactionalism. Even if Trump relocates troops in Germany to NATO’s east, this problem will persist.” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/ukraine-hi...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Ukraine hits Russia's economy, Poland warns of NATO 'disintegration,' and Belarus builds military infrastructure along its border with Ukraine
April 30-May 5, 2026 in Eastern Europe
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 23/04/2026
“Already, according to multiple assessments including by the Institute for the Study of War, the battlefield advantage may have shifted overall in Ukraine’s favor.” Check out my latest Eastern Europe news brief and analysis: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/ukraine-ga...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Ukraine gains battlefield advantage over Russia, Bulgaria elects a pro-Moscow PM, and Magyar mulls a new coalition of center-right states
April 14-22, 2026 in Eastern Europe
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
My report for @unherd.com on Bulgaria’s shifting relationship to Russia and pro-Russian ex-president Rumen Radev’s run for prime minister is out today, just in time for the country’s election tomorrow. Read up on this pivotal vote for both Bulgaria and the EU: unherd.com/2026/04/is-b...
unherd.com
Is Bulgaria Putin's next target?
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
“Increasingly, Ukraine is proving that it can not only hold its own, but even thrive, with limited US support — meaning that Trump’s demands on Donetsk may hold less weight than they did even a few months ago.” My latest analysis of the past week’s news: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/ukraine-de...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Ukraine decapitates Russian oil exports, Moscow plans a fake assassination attempt on Orbán, and Trump and Lukashenko mulled normalizing ties
March 19-26, 2026 in Eastern Europe
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Meduza in English @meduza.io · 06/03/2026
Authorities in Moscow reportedly arrested between 20 and 45 Iranian citizens for allegedly holding a rally in support of U.S. and Israeli actions in the Middle East. meduza.io/en/news/2026...
meduza.io
Russia reportedly arrests dozens of Iranian citizens for allegedly rallying in support of U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran — Meduza
Authorities in Moscow arrested between 20 and 45 Iranian citizens for allegedly holding an unauthorized rally in support of U.S. and Israeli actions in the Middle East, according to the Russian…
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
For the first time ever, leaders in Lebanon are taking real steps to crack down on Hezbollah. That’s good news — but Israel’s maximalist campaign in Lebanon and the country’s sectarian rivalries mean that Beirut’s problems are far from over. My latest for @unherd.com: unherd.com/2026/03/is-t...
unherd.com
Is this the end of Hezbollah?
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
“While Trump’s business ambitions in Russia are nothing new, these latest revelations make it clear that Trump sees the war as a fait accompli, and is preparing to reopen cooperation with Moscow regardless of how the conflict ultimately ends.” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/trump-want...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Trump wants a Ukraine peace deal by June, US ambassador to Poland cuts ties with its parliament speaker, and Orbán threatens his rival
February 4-11, 2026 in Eastern Europe
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
“These new documents make it clear that Epstein’s activities as a financier, political kingmaker, and liaison for the global elite were part of a larger world of Russian influence that grew out of the corrupt oligarchism of the USSR’s collapse.”My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/ukraine-ag...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Ukraine agreed to a new post-war ceasefire plan, Eastern Europe became embroiled in the Epstein files, and the Baltics eased military cooperation
January 27-February 3, 2026 in Eastern Europe
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
“The task before Eastern European states along Russia’s periphery now is not just to find a broader set of allies, but to rewrite the entire national security strategy they’ve been depending on since the 90s to maintain their survival.” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/eastern-eu...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Eastern Europe without America
In a new and uncertain world order, the region must replace Trump with pragmatism
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
“The task before Eastern European states along Russia’s periphery now is not just to find a broader set of allies, but to rewrite the entire national security strategy they’ve been depending on since the 90s to maintain their survival.” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/eastern-eu...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Eastern Europe without America
In a new and uncertain world order, the region must replace Trump with pragmatism
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Reposted by Michal Kranz
The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 23/01/2026
⚡️Zelensky 'counting on' more US air defense missiles, security guarantees following meeting with Trump at Davos. "We spoke with President Trump about additional anti-air missiles – the PAC-3s, against ballistics, which are what we need," Volodymyr Zelensky said. "I'm counting on a positive result."
kyivindependent.com
Zelensky 'counting on' more US air defense missiles, security guarantees following meeting with Trump at Davos
"We spoke with President Trump about additional anti-air missiles – the PAC-3s, against ballistics, which are what we need," Volodymyr Zelensky said. "I'm counting on a positive result."
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
“As a new world order is born out of the tragedy of Ukraine, Lukashenko understands not only that Trump might end his ostracism from the West, but that this is his best shot to transform himself from Putin’s underling into his right-hand man.” My latest for @unherd.com: unherd.com/2026/01/luka...
unherd.com
Lukashenko: Trump’s favourite strongman
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Poland's new anti-drone system will be the first of its kind in Europe, and will be operational well before the EU drone wall. But Poland is setting the tone of NATO strategy against Russian gray zone warfare in more ways than one. My first analysis for @cepa.org: cepa.org/article/pola...
cepa.org
Poland Prepares for Drone War With Russia
Europe needs to tackle Russia’s hybrid warfare, a Polish deputy defense minister warned as he unveiled new anti-drone systems.
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
If NATO falls apart, or if Europe creates alternate structures to replace it, Ukraine and all of NATO’s east will have to fundamentally reorient their security calculus, leading to new hyper local defense partnerships, especially in the Baltic. My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/trumps-gre...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Trump's Greenland threats sideline Ukraine, Belarus and Hungary join Trump's 'Board of Peace,' and Bulgaria's president resigns
January 14-20, 2026 in Eastern Europe
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
“While it is telling that Kushner and Witkoff were present at the talks in Paris, Trump’s assertion that Russia will not re-invade Ukraine speaks to his continued refusal to accept that Putin still seeks the capitulation of Ukraine.” My latest roundup: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/trump-acce...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Trump accepts Ukraine security guarantees, Lukashenko arrests 100s of new prisoners, and Moldova's president endorses reunification with Romania
January 6-13, 2026 in Eastern Europe
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
“Putin has long seen Trump and his Ukraine peace process as a vehicle to formalise a new division of the world, and regards Trump’s move in Venezuela to be a decisive step in that direction.” My latest in @unherd.com on Russia’s long-term plans: unherd.com/2026/01/what...
unherd.com
What Putin does next
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
My latest piece for Persuasion on the Berlin talks and the horrific choice Zelenskyy and Ukraine now face: www.persuasion.community/p/ukraines-i...
persuasion.community
Ukraine’s Impossible Dilemma
Zelenskyy has made the concessions he can, but that may not be enough.
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
“Fundamentally the failure of this outreach effort shows that while Russia had led Trump to believe that Putin is interested in talking business, at the end of the day, for Russia, geopolitics is geopolitics” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/putin-reje...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Putin rejects Trump's latest peace push, the EU threatens new sanctions on Belarus, and Poland Germany spar once again over WWII reparations
November 26-December 2, 2025 in Eastern Europe
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
“Fundamentally the failure of this outreach effort shows that while Russia had led Trump to believe that Putin is interested in talking business, at the end of the day, for Russia, geopolitics is geopolitics” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/putin-reje...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Putin rejects Trump's latest peace push, the EU threatens new sanctions on Belarus, and Poland Germany spar once again over WWII reparations
November 26-December 2, 2025 in Eastern Europe
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Reposted by Michal Kranz
Jakub Jaraczewski @jakubjaraczewski.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
🇵🇱🇨🇿🇸🇮🇭🇷🇧🇬🇸🇰🇺🇦🇲🇩🇲🇪🇲🇰🇱🇹🇱🇻🇪🇪🇷🇸🇷🇴🇽🇰🇩🇪🇭🇺
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
“Having already scared Ukraine into agreeing to the new 19-point plan, the pro-Russian wing of Trump’s cadre of viziers, with Witkoff at its head, is putting all the pieces in place to entrap Zelensky whenever he makes it to the White House.” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/ukraine-is...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Ukraine is walking into a trap
The walls of Trump's peace push are closing in around Zelensky
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
“Having already scared Ukraine into agreeing to the new 19-point plan, the pro-Russian wing of Trump’s cadre of viziers, with Witkoff at its head, is putting all the pieces in place to entrap Zelensky whenever he makes it to the White House.” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/ukraine-is...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Ukraine is walking into a trap
The walls of Trump's peace push are closing in around Zelensky
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
“While some of Ukraine’s opponents have pointed to the scandal as proof that Ukraine is an unreliable and corrupt ally, the fact that the scheme was unearthed proves once again that Ukrainian democracy and its institutions are indeed healthy.” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/russia-blo...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Russia blows up a rail line in Poland, Ukraine faces the loss of Pokrovsk, and a corruption scandal closes in on Zelensky's circle
November 11-18, 2025 in Eastern Europe
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 18/11/2025
“This railway explosion offers a glimpse into a near-future status quo that is far more immediate and nearly as dangerous [as a full-scale war]: an anxious state between war and peace in which violence is pervasive without becoming existential.” My latest for @unherd.com: unherd.com/newsroom/pol...
unherd.com
Poland rail bombing signals Russian escalation against Nato
Thanks to the norms of inter-state combat which have governed much of history, we’ve long been conditioned to think of war and peace in binary terms. But what’s happening on Nato’s east shows us that ...
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
“While it’s possible that Russia’s nationalistic war fervor may well collapse under the weight of its economic consequences, only by following through on his claim that Ukraine could still win the war would Trump put real pressure on Russia.” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/russia-gai...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Russia gains in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia, Trump grants Hungary a sanctions waiver, and Poland and Romania deploy a new anti-drone system
November 4-10, 2025 in Eastern Europe
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
“While it’s possible that Russia’s nationalistic war fervor may well collapse under the weight of its economic consequences, only by following through on his claim that Ukraine could still win the war would Trump put real pressure on Russia.” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/russia-gai...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Russia gains in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia, Trump grants Hungary a sanctions waiver, and Poland and Romania deploy a new anti-drone system
November 4-10, 2025 in Eastern Europe
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
My latest news roundup from yesterday analyzing the most important events from last week, along with under-covered stories like Latvia’s vote to withdraw from the Istanbul Convention on protecting women and Serbia’s promise to hold early elections: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/russia-mov...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Russia moves against Ukraine's Pokrovsk, Orbán asks Trump for a sanctions waiver, and the US reduces its troop presence in Romania
October 27-November 3, 2025 in Eastern Europe
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 04/11/2025
My latest news roundup from yesterday analyzing the most important events from last week, along with under-covered stories like Latvia’s vote to withdraw from the Istanbul Convention on protecting women and Serbia’s promise to hold early elections: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/russia-mov...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Russia moves against Ukraine's Pokrovsk, Orbán asks Trump for a sanctions waiver, and the US reduces its troop presence in Romania
October 27-November 3, 2025 in Eastern Europe
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
Despite his new sanctions, Trump is sure to flip back to Putin’s side on Ukraine once he sees that strong-arming Kyiv will be his quickest path to getting what he truly wants — a new Russo-American partnership on trade, resources, and more. My latest in @unherd.com: unherd.com/2025/10/trum...
unherd.com
Trump still can’t resist Putin
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
Despite his new sanctions, Trump is sure to flip back to Putin’s side on Ukraine once he sees that strong-arming Kyiv will be his quickest path to getting what he truly wants — a new Russo-American partnership on trade, resources, and more. My latest in @unherd.com: unherd.com/2025/10/trum...
unherd.com
Trump still can’t resist Putin
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
“With the US and the EU stepping up their pressure not only in Europe, but globally, the oil and gas front has become the most important and likely most impactful theater in the entire war.” My latest on Trump’s sanctions and Ukraine’s drone war: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/ukraine-ha...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Ukraine has become an energy war
The global oil and gas trade is now the front on which the War in Ukraine may be won
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
“With the US and the EU stepping up their pressure not only in Europe, but globally, the oil and gas front has become the most important and likely most impactful theater in the entire war.” My latest on Trump’s sanctions and Ukraine’s drone war: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/ukraine-ha...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Ukraine has become an energy war
The global oil and gas trade is now the front on which the War in Ukraine may be won
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Reposted by Michal Kranz
Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 21/10/2025
“Trump will almost certainly halt this intelligence sharing to make room for the negotiations as he has in the past meaning that all the gains Ukraine has made on the energy front will go to waste — which of course is exactly what Putin wants.” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/trump-turn...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Trump turns on Ukraine, Poland frees Nord Stream 2 sabotage suspect, and the EU announces a new defense plan
October 14-20, 2025 in Eastern Europe
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 21/10/2025
“Trump will almost certainly halt this intelligence sharing to make room for the negotiations as he has in the past meaning that all the gains Ukraine has made on the energy front will go to waste — which of course is exactly what Putin wants.” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/trump-turn...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Trump turns on Ukraine, Poland frees Nord Stream 2 sabotage suspect, and the EU announces a new defense plan
October 14-20, 2025 in Eastern Europe
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
“While these [Russian] troops luckily didn’t come into contact with any passenger traffic, if they had, Estonia might now be talking about the first case of one of its citizens being kidnapped by Russian forces — or worse.” My latest news analysis: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/moscow-thr...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Moscow threatens Trump, Russia's 'little green men' appear near Estonia, and Poland gets exemption from EU migration pact
October 7-13, 2025 in Eastern Europe
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
I’m late to the party, but I’ve just finished Jacob Mikanowski’s Goodbye Eastern Europe, a book about the multicultural patchwork of experiences and identities that once defined Eastern Europe. A few sections that spoke my own vision of what this region was, is, and could be again 🧵:
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🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 @specialkhersoncat.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
A new Ukrainian missile was demonstrated. It appears to be a modified Neptune missile. mod.gov.ua/news/mi-zakl...
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 07/10/2025
“Trump admin’s move to share intelligence with Kyiv on long-range strikes clearly signals that it is still willing to play a role in its military activities — and more importantly, that Ukraine’s strikes are working and are worth bolstering.” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/trump-shar...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Trump shares critical intel with Ukraine, populist Babiš wins in Czechia, and Georgian protestors stage their last stand
September 30-October 6, 2025 in Eastern Europe
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
“For the first time since he took office, Trump is handing the reigns of the West’s role in Ukraine back across the Atlantic and tying his own horse to Ukraine’s prospects in hopes of securing a much-needed win in the war.”My analysis of last week’s news: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/trump-mull...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Trump mulls giving Tomahawks to Ukraine, a pro-EU party wins in Moldova, and Poland alters law on downing objects over Ukraine
September 23-29, 2025 in Eastern Europe
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
My latest on what Trump’s U-turn on Ukraine really means in practice for the country and its European allies, and why it offers unexpected opportunities for them on long-range weapons permissions, American help with Russian incursions into NATO, and more: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/trumps-pro...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Trump's pro-Ukraine shift isn't what it looks like — but there's good news for Europe and Zelensky
Trump's change in attitude opens plenty of doors for Ukraine and European NATO
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
“Russia is establishing new rules of the game in NATO’s east, setting the stage for a new phase in its undeclared conflict with the alliance. Poland’s promise to shoot down Russian aircraft that violate its airspace is a logical next step” My latest: theeasternflank.substack.com/p/russia-vio...
theeasternflank.substack.com
Russia violates Estonian airspace, Trump promises cuts to Baltic security aid, and the EU bargains with Orbán over Russian oil
September 15-22, 2025 in Eastern Europe
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 20/09/2025
For years now, a new opioid class has been replacing fentanyl: nitazenes. Last month, I traveled to the nitazene epidemic’s unlikely epicenter, Estonia, where I dug deep into a marginalized underworld rarely seen by outsiders. My latest for @unherd.com: unherd.com/2025/09/the-...
unherd.com
Estonia’s opioid crisis is heading for Britain
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 20/09/2025
For years now, a new opioid class has been replacing fentanyl: nitazenes. Last month, I traveled to the nitazene epidemic’s unlikely epicenter, Estonia, where I dug deep into a marginalized underworld rarely seen by outsiders. My latest for @unherd.com: unherd.com/2025/09/the-...
unherd.com
Estonia’s opioid crisis is heading for Britain
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Michal Kranz @michalkranz.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
“The Russian assault has exposed a strategic blind spot in a piece of Warsaw’s defence architecture that could yet prove its Achilles Heel. For Russia, probing this space may have been exactly the point.” My latest on Putin’s drone attack on Poland in @unherd.com: unherd.com/2025/09/how-...
unherd.com
How Putin is conquering Poland
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Matthew J Kuiper @matthewjkuiper.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
Good analysis of Russia’s drone incursion into Poland. “Without an Article V declaration from NATO, Russia now understands that the alliance will tolerate provocations like this… meaning that Moscow’s field of movement has expanded. Expect more such incursions over the coming weeks and months.”
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