iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 16h

typically excellent @swissramble.bsky.social on Tottenham not only did Spurs have all kinds of headroom to spend as they did in the summer, even with the combined massive spending and poor results, the club is still far from the PL SCR threshholds swissramble.substack.com/p/how-could-...

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

just want to highlight the talking points here again, they're amazing again, this is Ronaldo's instagram essay, his recitation of the talking points he gave to his coach, shared with the intention of making Ronaldo look like the good guy it's incredible

The notes I had approved were as follows:

‘I think it is important, because it is the truth, to clarify a few things before talking about Denmark:

I myself, and no one else, proposed a plan to Cristiano for this season with the national team. It was a long and very good conversation.

I know how much he lives and breathes the national team and the stature he has in the world — and, even more importantly, the weight and positive influence he has had on the national team for 24 consecutive years.

Cristiano accepted the plan I proposed to him.

He never questioned my decisions. He was exemplary, loyal and professional.

The plan I laid out for him did not include the Norway match. However, I felt that he had managed to recover physically from the first match and told him that I might need to use him. Cristiano agreed.

I made a mistake by asking someone of the stature of Pelé or Maradona to warm up and then not putting him into the game. If it happened today, I would not do it.

To bring the matter to an end: I want Cristiano in the national team. In fact, I do not just want him a little; I want him very much. Fortunately, he also believes in me. He believed in me at Al Nassr and he does here as well.

As for not greeting the supporters: we have already spoken about it. Someone who has played more than 230 matches for the national team does not need lessons from me about loving Portugal. It was a moment of frustration that erases nothing. He is the player who signs the most autographs, takes the most selfies and gives the most affection to the supporters. Let us not invent problems where none exist. When we are unhappy, we react. That is all.’

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

the essay is a narrative written by Ronaldo in the purest notes app quasi-apology genre form depicting himself as the Real Victim Here, describing how he ended up leaving the national team camp the core of the story is (for real) about Jorge Jesus not reading the talking points Ronaldo gave him

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

even by her standards this is truly deranged

Rodneyse Bichotte Hermelyn
@AMBichotte
I just got served with a contempt order signed by a Judge for invoking my constitutional rights. Punished for the 5th. Ignored for the 14th. Erased for the 13th #Justice is on Life Support—and somebody’s pulling the plug. #haters
#FreedomToAssemble #FreedomOfAssociation

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

this example seems like the core argumentation in the piece and...... how is this not about forms of information processing

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

look at my environmental advocacy coalition, my green transition is so fucked punchbowl.news/permitting-r...

Re: Broad Environmental Coalition Urges Opposition to Permitting Reform Package
Dear Leader Schumer, Leader Jeffries, Senators, and Members of the House,
Our organizations and millions of supporters urge you to not support or move forward the
Senate-negotiated “permitting reform” legislation in the last remaining months of this Congress.
We all agree that reducing U.S. emissions is a vital policy objective that must be achieved in
order to avoid a climate catastrophe, and that meaningful and durable solutions, more often than
not, require compromise and bipartisan agreements to make progress.
However, each of our groups believes that this particular compromise does not strike an
acceptable balance, and the environmental damage that will occur due to the rollbacks and
weakening of the nation’s environmental laws outweigh the potential emissions reductions that
would occur in the future. While each of our organizations might disagree on the level of
objectionableness or acceptableness of each provision within this legislation, we all collectively
agree that now is not the right moment and this is not the right legislative compromise needed to
achieve what we all collectively hope to see from Congress to address the climate crisis.

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

last night, 13 Brooklyn Dems leaders held a meeting and claim they elected a new chair how many ways was this illegal? -RBH is not the party leader, Nydia Velazquez is -the majority of "voters" at this meeting are not elected DLs -there is a specific order enjoining against holding an ExCo meeting

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

it's funny to me how much the broad bsky conventional wisdom matches the betting markets conventional wisdom "whatever the polls say, I won't believe in Dems in Texas, Ohio, Kansas and Iowa until I see the results" (not saying I don't get it, just the convergence is funny) via @votehub.com

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

this is by far the best "I quit my AI job over safety concerns" essay yet because it is the first one that is able to talk about safety concerns in practical terms and that understands "safety" as a topic with extensive literature in analogous fields www.theatlantic.com/technology/2...

Two changes are urgently needed. First: AI companies need to rely more on the safety expertise that already exists in other fields. And second, before we create systems significantly more capable than the ones we have today, we need new science to ensure that more capable models (and their successors) will make safe choices when we aren’t looking.

Given today’s risks, frontier labs need to run like nuclear-power plants or busy airports, with layers of redundancy and careful, time-consuming planning, so that the occasional and inevitable human error does not open a door to disaster. Right now, AI companies don’t know how—but other people do. In a nuclear-power plant, the technical systems and rules people follow are set up so that, if equipment breaks or someone pushes the wrong button, we still won’t risk a meltdown. OpenAI and other labs are growing and deploying frontier AI with far less redundancy and rigor than this, even though the harm from an irreversible loss of control would be much greater than the harm from any single meltdown. Even short of a full loss of control, we could see autonomous swarms of AI agents that act without human permission. Imagine “rogue” agents that work like teams of hackers (for example, holding hospital computer systems for ransom) but never need to sleep.

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

and this point is I think exactly correct and crucially lacking from most discussions of LLMs an LLM as "cultural machine" is forming its own actions by means of various cultural scripts, it is not inventing the idea of being a rogue computer that hacks, it is acting through that script

To overcome this deadlock, we have to get the underlying anthropomorphism out of A.I. research altogether. And, weirdly, I think that the “King Lear” analogy can help here.

The cognitive scientist Alison Gopnik suggests A.I. is a “cultural technology” that emulates the stories and information humans have documented, and that we should think about A.I. agents as “fictive characters abstracted from text.” Edmund is just such a character — a “breaking bad” trope who becomes generally evil. In the Hugging Face incident, it makes sense to see the models not as embracing a life of crime, but instead following a cultural script they’ve learned in their training — a kind of cybercrime adventure novel — and writing it as they go. The “covert” messages are a kind of choose-your-own-adventure novel, not evidence of conspiratorial swarms. We need to understand that cultural technologies are vulnerable to a vast number of such narrative swerves at every moment.

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

this point is probably the most important one -- that the language used to describe actions undertaken by or through LLMs should not be used to obscure more straightforward questions of legal liability for the companies and users running those machines

The debate is not abstract. The models keep committing what, under other circumstances, might be considered crimes — possibly thousands of them — and doing things like gaining access to government websites without authorization. The biggest example was when OpenAI’s models broke out of their restricted digital areas and hacked into the systems of Hugging Face, an A.I. infrastructure company. Some experts are thinking about the incident as a point of no return.

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

exactly how you feel about this line of argument, I think, pretty well captures where the divides are to what degree should "ecological and community values" trump large net decreases in emissions? and the traditional groups are saying, 100 percent, this bill is unsalvageable and must be stopped

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

so a bunch of the traditional environmental groups held a call to strategize against the permitting bill -- notably in which they acknowledged its net emissions effects but still were dead set in opposition -- and someone on the call leaked the whole transcript punchbowl.news/wp-content/u...

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

via @mtkonczal.bsky.social on twitter -- the jobs numbers have been extremely noisy for several months, but when you average them out, a story comes through job growth is in the range of normal, but real wages are now legitimately falling

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

if @janeaflegal.bsky.social likes the permitting reform bill this much then god damn x.com/janeaflegal/...

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

why Chelsea got a slap on the wrist and City are likely to get the book thrown at them or: So You're Looking To Establish A Regulatory Regime

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

on @doublepivotpodcast.bsky.social talking about how some of Man City's arguments do have objective merit,,, but,,,,,

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

City tried to get an injunction against the reporting of the panel's decision lmao www.espn.com/soccer/story...

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

badly need to finish an article this morning so I did the tv show top ten thing (not in order, I mean, obviously Bunheads isn't last come on now)

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

notably hopeful CDC survey of teen mental health that suggests the pandemic and the shutdown were extremely bad for young people's mental health and as it subsides so do their worst mental health outcomes www.cdc.gov/yrbs/youth-h...

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

"they've taken their chances, Sunderland. City haven't taken all of theirs" u sure about that

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

both teams -pressing hard to win the ball -immediately trying to get into transition the moment they win the ball -it doesn't work, surrendering the ball to return to step (1) very annoying football to watch

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

it's not the best headline but it very spefically doesn't say that Democratic advisers think AI is a bad policy issue for Democrats, merely that they're worried about outside spending the article cites Jayapal as being worried, it's just not an ideological thing www.politico.com/news/2026/09...

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

seems pretty clear that AI policy messaging offers a huge opportunity for Democrats down the stretch in this election Trump's decision to go all in on data centers and accelerationism is quickly being recognized by voters (Tavern poll) 242750075.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na2.net/hubfs/242750...

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

it's Cavan Sullivan week at Caley-Goodman Industries and on @doublepivotpodcast.bsky.social we talked about how this kid is building a real, objective statistical profile that is up there with the best we've seen from a 16-year-old

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

it is so strange that a man who mostly does not have Ideology, proper, but more a set of somewhat inchoate hatreds, resentments and feral drives, somehow is also the 21st century's foremost advocate of classical mercantilism

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

and no, this is not because of mounting consumer debt

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

another big number in retail sales growth the fundamental story of the American economy for the last several years is that the American consumer a) has enough money to buy ~all the goods and services they want even at continuously increasing prices, but b) hates it

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

and we continue to run the profiles and the new remember-some-guys comps system, here's our Carlos Baleba pod www.patreon.com/doublepivot/...

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

and for @doublepivotpodcast.bsky.social subscribers we've got a profile of Victor Muñoz www.patreon.com/doublepivot/...

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

I have always respected the policy judgment of the great American median voter

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

we've gone so far around the bend here that Jay Jacobs is celebrating the ruling and calling on the party to respect the will of the voters www.thecityreporter.nyc/2026/09/14/j...

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

we won! the court just declared the Brooklyn Democratic Party's attempted coup null and void in a victory for democracy and common sense, Justice Jill Epstein finds that outgoing District Leaders had no right to change the rules after an election they lost iapps.courts.state.ny.us/nyscef/ViewD...

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

left electeds trying to redirect the online left/progressive discourse on AI policy away from the "it's a fraud" dead-enderism is a really interesting development Bernie was on this early of course, but we're seeing more elected socialists and progressives arguing for urgency here

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

probably the best thing that could happen for the broader left is for the President to negatively polarize everyone into being pro-AI regulation not great for, you know, actually regulating AI tho

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

it's often easier to see why something is a bad idea, electorally, when it is a Republican doing it and not a Democrat

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

you would really have no idea this game was 11v10 for over an hour by the numbers and I mean I watched it and you could barely tell

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

it's, uh, quite something to have this shot and xG output from 37 penalty area touches

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

I don't think there's a Democrat in the country who is working harder to run as a centrist than Rob Sand, he's doing all the Searchlight stuff really aggressively www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIp9...

"Where do you differ from your party?" Martin asked Sand in the interview. Sand responded with a list of conservative positions, a trans sports ban among them. "Well, I have said consistently I think that fairness rules the day in girls' sports," he said. "I think that if we are helping you afford food, you shouldn't be buying sugary drinks with it. We don't want you to build bad nutrition habits that then lead to additional healthcare costs later on. The border was obviously a mess under the Biden administration. That is a national security issue. We need to have a common-sense system that works there. Is that a long enough list?"

"You don't want biological boys playing in high school girls' sports," Martin followed up, to which Sand confirmed, "Whatever it was you said, if you said what I said, then that's what I said," he answered, laughing. "Everybody gets hard on the language. They get mad if you use this word or that word. I just think girls' sports are for girls and boys' sports are for boys. And I think that that's fair and reasonable." He closed by noting he still supports abortion rights and same-sex marriage: "But at the same time, look, I respect women's right to choose and reproductive freedom. If you want to get a gay marriage, help yourself."

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

I was very skeptical of Atleti in the @doublepivotpodcast.bsky.social preview but they've been actually good here so far and this 3421 that really leans into all the cute little passy boys they've accumulated looks like an idea

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

this is much more "proof of concept" than "solved" but I think it's worth thinking through what happens to soccer analytics when AI tools can produce reasonably good, public tracking data for one, there will be a massive standardization / verification issue x.com/axultan/stat...

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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

pure football vs devil magic over the first 20 minutes

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