iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 10h

Thank you, generous people, for your support, reshares, and donations big & small!🎉🎉🎉 We are up to nearly $2,500 in contributions to support #cancer research. That means I will wear 50 N95s for the 5K, and counting! Just 7 days to go. 🏃 runsignup.com/mask

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 12h

All good. Good to see you over here. You were on Twitter before, or I am making that up?

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Reposted by Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA

Magpie @magpieofthesea.bsky.social · 21h

As someone living w terminal cancer who is often the only one wearing a mask at the cancer center and everywhere else I go, I so appreciate this! I donated, maybe you can too! And maybe you can think about masking more often before your life depends on it!

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

I am wearing one in my profile picture. The particular Moldex I am wearing in the photo is pleated. It performs better than other N95s, about 3x better than an Aura. The data I find suggests it also outperforms the Flo Mask filters (not shown in graph). x.com/ghhughes/sta...

Respirators by pressure drop (breathability)

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

That certainly would make it easier. I will likely duct tape together a bunch of 3M Auras. 27 and counting!

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

COVlD levels in #NewOrleans have rebounded. Take your highest-level precautions. Mask up, test before gatherings and when ill/exposed, stay home if sick, and get your booster today. Move events online/outdoors.

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

CDC & Biobot updated COVlD levels today. We've already updated the interactive map at pmc19.com/map Our Monday report will post early, tonight. We're in an apparent double-peak. The pacific states and south are very bad, also the NYC area, MD, & CT.

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

We are at nearly $1,000 to support cancer research. That means I will run the 5K with at least 20 masks!

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

I’m doing a 5K on October 18th to support cancer research. I wanted to do something fun, so in addition to wearing an N95, I will wear an additional N95 on my person for every $50 donated (runsignup.com/mask). Thanks for a reshare or any contribution. Even a penny would help! Details in ALT text.

I’m doing a 5K on October 18th to support research at the Tulane Cancer Center, here in the Deep South.

I wanted to do something fun, so in addition to wearing an N95, I will wear an additional N95 on my person for every $50 donated (http://runsignup.com/mask).

$50 = 1 N95
$500 = 10 N95s
$5,000 = 100 N95s
$50,000 = 1,000 N95s

Any partial donation would help. $10 would add an additional mask for 1K of the race. A penny would add 1 meter with an additional mask. I’ll sum partial donations and round up in the end. Even a penny🪙 or reshare🔁 would help.

FAQs

World Record
🔹There does not presently appear to be a Guinness World Record for most N95s on an individual in a 5K.
🔹This year, I will go for an informal record. Guinness has not yet responded to my request to go for an official record, but there is always next year.

Good Health, Safety, and Environmental Modeling
🔹I will mask properly. Extra masks will not be worn on top of my mask.
🔹All masks will be individually-wrapped N95s. I will eventually wear them or donate them, if someone wants them.

Caveats
🔹It’s a fun run. All donations are final, even if weather or an injury strikes.

Inclusivity
🔹There are many ways to support health and health justice. Please also contribute to your local mask bloc or engage in advocacy in other ways too. There are many great causes.
🔹Many people with chronic and serious illnesses are housebound or cannot run or could run but would then crash for days or weeks after. This is no endorsement of the primacy of exercise-based activities.

How Your Donation Helps
🔹Your donation supports the fight against cancer and normalizes masking.
🔹Funds support the Tulane Cancer Center. Last year’s funds went toward a project to reduce the chances of bone metastases in the context of breast cancer.
🔹I avoid financial conflicts of interest like the plague, so I will not accept any payments or apply for any funds.

Please help spread the word!

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

There is exactly 1 US public health agency still doing the work.

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Reposted by Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA

Mask Bloc Eugene/Springfield @maskbloceug.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

It’s Wastewater Wednesday! How are COVID levels? We’re using two sources to help us keep track of the country and our state of Oregon. Thank you to @michael-hoerger.bsky.social for the map and graph, and OHA for continuing to track data coming from our wastewater treatment centers!

Two screenshots against a photo of purple and orange flowers. The first is a map of the US showing COVID transmission, with states colored light blue to berry pink depending on severity. Lane County is red in the high range. Most other counties in Oregon are in the moderate, high, and very high ranges. Text notes that this data was last updated on September 26. The second screenshot is text that reads, “94% of Oregon community wastewater treatment centers were positive for SARS-CoV-2 on the most recent sample.”

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

It's very odd. It will let other people post my content.

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

People get infected by inhaling virus laden aerosol particles. If there is a filter insert, one's inhalation follows the law of fluid dynamics, meaning inhaling largely through the path of least resistance, the area that is just outside the filter insert. 3M Aura is your best bet to start.

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Censored on TikTok in <30 seconds. Appeal filed. They will allow California residents to know after the COVlD wave has subsided.

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Washable? Those won't help much. I would head to a hardware store an find a 3M Aura N95. Cloth masks are not designed to block SARS-CoV-2.

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

California's COVlD outbreak now surpasses 3 months. PMC estimates 1 in 29 residents are actively infectious statewide. Mask up and get boosted.💉💪😷 On a computer, go to pmc19.com/map and click on individual counties for more info, including a graph of recent levels. Summary in ALT text.

County, Level, and PMC estimate of the proportion of the population actively infectious

Alameda | Very High | 1 in 26
Alpine | High | 1 in 34
Amador | High | 1 in 36
Butte | Very High | 1 in 22
Calaveras | High | 1 in 30
Colusa | Very High | 1 in 25
Contra Costa | High | 1 in 36
Del Norte | Very High | 1 in 23
El Dorado | High | 1 in 40
Fresno | Very High | 1 in 23
Glenn | Very High | 1 in 23
Humboldt | High | 1 in 32
Imperial | High | 1 in 31
Inyo | Very High | 1 in 20
Kern | Very High | At least 1 in 20
Kings | Very High | At least 1 in 20
Lake | Very High | 1 in 23
Lassen | Very High | At least 1 in 20
Los Angeles | High | 1 in 34
Madera | Very High | 1 in 24
Marin | Very High | At least 1 in 20
Mariposa | High | 1 in 29
Mendocino | Very High | 1 in 24
Merced | Moderate | 1 in 43
Modoc | Very High | 1 in 21
Mono | Very High | 1 in 25
Monterey | Very High | 1 in 28
Napa | High | 1 in 33
Nevada | Very High | 1 in 28
Orange | High | 1 in 38
Placer | High | 1 in 29
Plumas | Very High | At least 1 in 20
Riverside | Very High | 1 in 26
Sacramento | High | 1 in 29
San Benito | High | 1 in 30
San Bernardino | Very High | At least 1 in 20
San Diego | Moderate | 1 in 48
San Francisco | High | 1 in 34
San Joaquin | Very High | 1 in 22
San Luis Obispo | High | 1 in 29
San Mateo | High | 1 in 37
Santa Barbara | Very High | At least 1 in 20
Santa Clara | High | 1 in 40
Santa Cruz | Very High | 1 in 26
Shasta | Very High | 1 in 26
Sierra | Very High | 1 in 23
Siskiyou | High | 1 in 31
Solano | High | 1 in 34
Sonoma | Very High | 1 in 25
Stanislaus | Very High | At least 1 in 20
Sutter | High | 1 in 31
Tehama | Very High | 1 in 23
Trinity | High | 1 in 30
Tulare | Very High | 1 in 20
Tuolumne | High | 1 in 29
Ventura | High | 1 in 34
Yolo | Very High | 1 in 24
Yuba | Very High | 1 in 28

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

PMC COVlD Update, Oct 5, 2026 ◾️Levels peaked at ≈610,000 estimated new daily infections in mid Sep ◾️36 states still with known outbreaks (see Alt text) ◾️13th COVlD wave Website: pmc19.com Interactive county-level map: pmc19.com/map

The US has at least 36 states and territories with COVlD outbreaks. The apparent wave peak has passed, but transmission remains high across much of the country. States with observed outbreaks include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Guam, Hawai'i, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wyoming. There are likely outbreaks in additional states. The summary statistic only includes counties with observed data, rather than estimated data. For example, Arkansas, DC, Idaho, Louisiana, Maryland, Nevada, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Wisconsin likely have outbreaks, but monitoring is poor.

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Reposted by Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA

Mask Bloc Eugene/Springfield @maskbloceug.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Two screenshots against a photo of a pile of orange and yellow striped pumpkins. The first is a map of the US showing COVID transmission, with states colored light blue to berry pink depending on severity. Lane County & most of the other counties in Oregon are in the very high ranges. Text notes that this data was last updated on September 19. The second screenshot is text that reads, “92% of Oregon community wastewater treatment centers were positive for SARS-CoV-2 on the most recent sample.” Note: OHA hasn’t updated their website this week. Oregon numbers are from their last update on 9/24/26.

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

PMC COVlD Update, Sep 28, 2026 (US): 🔸We're in a 13th COVlD wave. 🔸40 states & territories continue to have COVlD outbreaks, stable from last week. 🔸Levels likely peaked between Sep 7-13 at a PMC-estimated 580,000 new daily infections. pmc19.com/map

The US has at least 40 states and territories with COVlD outbreaks, the same number reported last week. These include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Guam, Hawaii, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Texas, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wyoming.
There are likely outbreaks in additional states. The summary statistic of 40 only includes counties with observed data, rather than estimated data. For example, Idaho, Louisiana, Maryland, and Tennessee likely have outbreaks, but monitoring is poor.

Nuance:
Note that while PMC uses forecasting to estimate national statistics through Sep 28 and beyond, the state-level data do not, meaning they are now 9 days old. If the national forecast is correct, levels peaked between Sept 7-13, closely aligned with our prior forecasts. This would mean that levels are declining more so than depicted in the map. Levels often decline slowly, suggesting the need for ongoing precautions. Additionally, Biobot and 200 CDC sites are offline this week, and both have experienced major retroactive corrections of late, so the national forecast has more uncertainty than usual. For example, we could see the peak adjusted upward or a double peak. It is unclear how quickly reporting will resume at the offline sites.

Note that while PMC national statistical estimates include forecasting, the state-level data do not, meaning they are now 9 days old. If the forecast is correct, levels peaked between Sept 7-13. This would mean that levels are declining more so than depicted in the map. However, Biobot and 200 CDC sites are offline this week and both have experienced major retroactive corrections of late, so high uncertainty.

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Partially so, but it's also an instance of the waves themselves being marginally flatter. Imagine if you took the top 5% of a wave tip and pushed it down each side a little. This is nearly impossible to perceive visually.

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I may make an explainer at some point, but I would need 12 full-time jobs to debunk all of the COVlD disinformation I see.

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

WVAL has ridiculously strong evidence for construct validity, as I have explained to them 100 times, but they do not have any relevant training in psychometrics (measurement science) so ignore that. In this particular instance, they are committing high school-level data cleaning errors.

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

When someone posts chronic intentional disinformation, it is important to point out their disinformation tactics, usually paltering, overconfidence, and strong assertions on minor issues that have no practical bearing.

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

data harmonization process. If something seems strange, defer to the most pessimistic nearby data, but take it all with a grain of salt.

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Data quality is a bit lower this week. It looks like the CDC is transitioning from Verily to another contractor, so about 200 sites are offline. There are a couple anomalies I have noticed thus far, e.g., Big Island WVAL >600. I suspect it's someone reporting the incorrect of two values during a

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

FYI, we don't update the PMC home page and report until Mondays (typically), but the interactive dashboard is up to date (pmc19.com/map).

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

The top graph shows our county-level COVlD map using the CDC's Standard Benchmarks. The bottom map shows the downshifted levels under the CDC's new system. This really makes a difference for early warning in the middle categories. I've highlighted 5 areas.

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Thanks NBC News for adding my name! It's extremely helpful when we're explaining the downstream impact of our research.

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

COVlD-associated hospitalizations are exploding in NYC. This is quite serious. Due to vaccinations and prior mortality, the acute effects of infection are often less obviously apparent in 2026. It's a testament to the high transmission. Screenshot from @datareport.bsky.social via the devil app.

graph, steep rise in C19 hospitalizations

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Reposted by Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA

MaskTogetherAmerica @togetherwemask.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

We are looking forward to collaborating with US and global advocates to help decision-makers adopt this pilot #CleanAir model. Together, we can reduce sickness, student absences, and parental productivity losses in major cities like NYC! @christinaauriana.bsky.social @michael-hoerger.bsky.social

Pandemic & Epidemic Threat Analysis Lab and Air Club provide a flyer of the study: “Projected Health Impacts of Cleaner Air in NYC Schools” by Geetha Jeyapragasan and Charlie Whittaker from University of CA Berkeley. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.06.06.26355067v1

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

That is quite an honor from my favorite newspaper growing up in Michigan. My education K-PhD was funded by the taxpayers of Michigan, including fostering early web design skills. That is part of the reason all PMC graphics are free to use, share, and improve. Pay it forward.

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

The PMC COVlD map is above the fold on the front page of the Detroit Free Press today. Get boosted. 💉💪😷

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Reposted by Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA

Mask Bloc Eugene/Springfield @maskbloceug.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Two screenshots against a closeup photo of orange and yellow flowers. The first is a map of the US showing COVID transmission, with states colored light blue to berry pink depending on severity. Lane County is light blue which means very low, but the rest of the state has counties in the moderate, high, and very high ranges. Text notes that this data was last updated on September 12. The second screenshot is text that reads, “71% of Oregon community wastewater treatment centers were positive for SARS-CoV-2 on the most recent sample.”

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

NBC has picked up the #bluewashing story. On August 14, the CDC downshifted how they categorize wastewater levels to make all current and historical COVlD levels lower.

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Thank you for covering this. Kindly, please cite the source that broke the story. bsky.app/profile/mich...

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

I mask any time I am indoors or in the rare instance I would do something in a packed outdoor area (I avoid that)

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

They leave a lot to be desired. A lot of public health social media accounts just use AI (hence, handwashing advice) and most are disconnected from data and public health practitioners in terms of strategy. Practitioners are using this data less now, IMO, but journalists are more.

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Everyone in #NYC should rush to get boosted and mask up. There are sloppy anonymous and international disinformation accounts pushing mass infection in NYC. Protect your heart, your brain, and your livelihood. Get boosted ASAP. 💉💪😷

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Herman Cain would be proud of so many 9s, but that is the tip of the iceberg.

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

There is an Australian professor who consistently posts anti-US public health COVlD disinformation. It should not surprise you that their most recent posts arguing against elevated transmission in NYC are also disinformation. #DunningKruger #999

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Reposted by Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA

Rev. AJ van Tine @revajvt.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Seriously, read the alt-text on this one. Maybe things are okay, but maybe we’re heading into another omicron winter. Have you gotten your Covid shot this fall yet?

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

This is a complex graph we post periodically that has implications for understanding an unusual time period in the pandemic. See Alt text for analysis.

This is a special graph we only post periodically. It shows 2 things that have considerable implications.

1) Transmission has been lower than anticipated since December, and *only* since December. It's a recent phenomenon, not a long-term trend. WastewaterSCAN has poor longitudinal standardization so sometimes people mistakenly believe waves are getting smaller and smaller (or they say this because their listserv subscribers like to hear it). CDC and Biobot make very long-term data difficult to find. On the PMC 13-wave graph (which integrates long-term CDC and Biobot data, some of which is measured weekly by hand!), wave height gets smaller, but the waves are wider (hard to perceive visually). The take-home is we're in a very weird place in the pandemic, not a trend, but either an aberration or shift.

2) Cumulative levels for the current year (Y7) closely resemble that of Year 2. This is where the debate of aberration vs shift gets interesting. If we are in an aberration of lower than typical transmission, that means many people are walking around with limited short-term infection-derived immunity, and most people are not recently boosted. That would be a tinder box for a saltation variant (MANY variants are circulating), and put us on that scary Y2 path. The alternative is that this is not an aberration but a more meaningful shift, some population-level immunity building through a combination of boosters, infection history, and the most vulnerable dying (social murder), meaning time between infection starting to increase. These divergent hypotheses are the difference between 150 million vs 325 million infections for Y7. If I were a gambler, I'd bet about 200 million. However, you can see the uncertainty. This is a time like no other to monitor the data closely.

The good news is that wastewater monitoring is not going away. Keep watching.

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

I have consistently commented on this being a lower than typical wave, including in the past 24 hours, where I explained the implication of this for the winter. Again, ask a curious question, rather than spread misinformation.

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

If you think something is amiss, I would suggest asking a thoughtful question rather than spreading misinformation.

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Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA @michael-hoerger.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

I have no idea who you are. The headline states the wave is cresting (true) and seems to focus on the implications of graph 9 (which we only post periodically) on the website this week. The only other US model from a scientist (Dr. Eastman) has levels higher than that of PMC, fyi

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