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Miles Williams

@mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social
229 followers 612 following 186 posts

Denison U prof teaching #Rstats for data visualization and statistical modeling, researching int’l aid and conflict: milesdwilliams15.github.io mileswilliams.substack.com

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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
What draws the attention of more Americans: the US-Iran War, Artemis II, March Madness, or the Super Bowl? I answer this question in my latest post, and you’ll find it both disappointing yet unsurprising. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
Iran Moon Madness Bowl
The American people have their priorities. What are yours?
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
What did I learn from attending a conference for international relations scholars? That most of us are still just doing research as normal, even as agentic LLMs storm the scene. I share some thoughts in my latest newsletter. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
What I Learned at ISA 2026 [corrected]
How LLMs haven't revolutionized IR research (yet)
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
This is how World War III begins! This is how World War III begins! Not with a bang, but a question mark? open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
Is this World War III?
Contextualizing recent claims with data
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
What do college students want US foreign policy to look like? The consensus: active; not aggressive. But the “not aggressive” consensus falls apart when factoring in partisanship. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
College Students Want an Active (Not Aggressive) Foreign Policy
What students at my university think about US foreign policy
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
What will be the ultimate outcome of the US-Iran war? To summarize my data-driven answer in one word: stalemate. You can read more in my latest post on Substack. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
How will war with Iran end?
The most likely outcome, based on the data, isn't US victory
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Want to read a meandering analysis of public opinion on US foreign policy? Of course you do, so check out my latest post where I shoot from hip as I poke and prod data from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs covering 50 years of survey data. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
Withdrawing from the World
A look at 50 years of public opinion on US foreign policy
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
My latest Substack post is about the bi-annual ranking of major powers (a.k.a., the Olympics). What does the data say contributes to the dominance of certain countries in the games? open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
The Bi-annual Great Power Ranking
Otherwise known as the Olympics
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
In my latest Substack post, I think about the state of the Western Liberal Order as of 2024, and about some systemic trends that might have eroded alignment within the order before the current Trump Administration. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
Is the Western Liberal Order Okay?
It was as of 2024...
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
I’m teaching a class about studying war with data, so of course I’m spending my spare time nerding out on the datasets I’m introducing my students to. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
No Two World Wars Are the Same
Plotting and comparing trends between WW1 and WW2
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
Claude Code is a powerful tool for soc sci. But I don’t hear many talking about how =/= access (bc of the $) will reify the advantages of some researchers, while others will face a tough choice: make sacrifices to pay to play, or become even scrappier to keep up. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
Paul Bunyan and Claude Code
The thing bugging me about the Claude-Code-hype for social science
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
The Olympic Games are coming up, and I’m ready for some curling. But I also wanted to know whether the games promote international peace. Based on the data, there’s some evidence that they do, but with some important caveats. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
Do the Olympics Promote Peace?
A little counter programming as the world seems to be burning down
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Foreign aid agencies use logos and other public messaging to get the attention of people in aid recipients. Turns out the best way to grab attention is to be the premier aid agency in the world and then announce you’re closing shop. Simple, but effective. mileswilliams.substack.com/p/how-to-mak...
mileswilliams.substack.com
How to make USAID popular
Just shut it down and announce it to the world
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 14/01/2026
The U.S. is a dissatisfied major power, and it’s acting like one. This is what I wrote about in my latest Substack post. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
The U.S. is behaving like a dissatisfied major power
U.S. belligerence in Venezuela and its threats elsewhere fit with the data (which is potentially not good)
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 31/12/2025
Did Trump administration policies targeting international students affect their political affiliations? I look at data from my own university to answer this question. I turns out their politics were affected, but the change was short lived. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
Did international students shift to the left?
A look at party affiliation and attitudes toward Trump among international students at my university
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 24/12/2025
Is there any better way to spend Christmas Eve than thinking about international order and its decline? Yes. But I made this the subject of this week’s Substack post anyway. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
International Order
What metrics offer early warning signs of collapse?
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
In my latest Substack post, I take a look at the latest official data on U.S. foreign assistance. The current contraction in aid is unprecedented (a word that I hate to use, because it’s overused, but it’s accurate in this case). #foreignaid #usaid #data open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
The latest data on U.S. foreign assistance
What's the current state of U.S. foreign aid?
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
I broke with my routine of 1 Substack post per week to share some data analysis relevant to the recent seizure of a Venezuelan tanker by the U.S. Statistically speaking, the situation is now much worse. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
The risk of war with Venezuela just got higher
What the American seizure of a Venezuelan tanker means for war
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
Surprise! Students at my institution still use AI. But how do they say they use it, and how does AI make them feel? I answer those questions in my latest Substack post. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
The latest data on student AI use
Use remains high, but students also don't like it
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
The top recipient of Chinese overseas finance is...the USA. I talk about this in my latest Substack post drawing on brand new data from #AidData. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
The top recipient of Chinese overseas finance is...
The United States of America
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
The world isn’t perfect, but in my latest Substack post I show that most people who participated in wave 7 of the World Values Survey (people from 60 countries between 2017-2021) are on net satisfied with their lives and say they’re better off than their parents. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
Global Thankfulness
Data on life satisfaction across the world
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
As an academic and researcher, I’ve offered some takes on student AI use. This week’s Substack post is something different: a self reflection on my personal reluctance to make AI a bigger part of my writing and coding. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
Why I Rarely Use AI
One IR scholar's take on AI for writing and research
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
Pulling this out of the Substack archives for a belated Veterans Day post. A statistically grounded reminder to not take peace for granted. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
Has the Long Peace Been A Fluke All Along?
A sobering reminder that luck, more than anything, may explain the lack of systemic war since WWII
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
Is the U.S. gambling with war in South America? I try to quantify the risk in my latest Substack post using the Militarized Interstate Events Dataset. #data #war open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
Rolling the "Iron Dice" with Venezuela
Quantifying the risk of war in South America
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 29/10/2025
In my latest Substack post I ask whether war is more likely today than in the past. The answer looks different depending on how you slice the data (shocker!). open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
Is War Becoming More Likely?
The answer depends on how you slice the data.
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
China has become a pretty important foreign lender and aid donor. Do recipients of its aid and loans take notice? I answer that question in my latest Substack post. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
Attention Aid
China gives lots of foreign aid to developing countries. Do they notice?
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
Why do certain countries dominate in Nobel prizes? I have a data-driven answer in my latest Substack post. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
Who Gets More Nobel Prizes and Why?
What factors explain why some countries get more Nobel laureates than others?
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
My dept head (Paul Djupe) and I published an article about our unique undergrad program called Data for Political Research, and why more schools should adopt a datacentric poli sci track that emphasizes applied research. I wrote about it in my latest newsletter: open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
More Data for Political Research
The promise of a more data-centric poli sci curriculum
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
Who gets a state and why? I look at the case of Taiwan in my latest Substack post to answer this question. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
Who gets a state and why?
And who doesn't?
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Reposted by Miles Williams
PS: Political Science & Politics @pspolisci.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
Now online ft. @pauldjupe.bsky.social @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social A quantitative-forward approach to political science is popular & one that many believe would provide value for students. Djupe and Williams describe such a program that front-loads research methods. doi.org/10.1017/S104... #polisky
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Reposted by Miles Williams
Paul Djupe @pauldjupe.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
Excited for this to be out at PS -- discussion of our DPR program at @denisonuniversity.bsky.social that frontloads quant methods. @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social and I also present survey evidence that the idea is popular among political scientists.
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
What’s going on with political violence in America and abroad? I offer some data-driven takes in my latest weekly post on Substack. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
Political Violence in America and Abroad
Are we entering an era of extreme political violence?
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
How’s Russia’s economy doing since invading Ukraine? In my latest Substack post I take a look at several macroeconomic indicators to find an answer. The verdict: it’s doing better than I thought. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
How's Russia Doing?
Kind of okay, actually
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
For any #rstats users out there who do country-level and country dyad-level analyses of foreign #aid, I have a new R package for you called {odadata}. Check it out: github.com/milesdwillia...
github.com
GitHub - milesdwilliams15/odadata: An R package for adding dyadic and country-level ODA data to {peacesciencer} constructed datasets.
An R package for adding dyadic and country-level ODA data to {peacesciencer} constructed datasets. - milesdwilliams15/odadata
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
What’s up with the US strike on a Venezuelan boat last week? In my latest Substack post I attempt to see how it fits with bigger patterns in U.S. foreign policy and global trends. Have a read (or listen): open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
Venezuela, Drugs, and Cartels. Oh My!
Making sense of America's escalation against so-called "narco-terrorists"
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
Is it a bad idea to chip away at (or take a sledgehammer to) the independence of the Fed? The data doesn’t lie — it’s a bad idea. This is the topic of my latest Substack. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
Fed up with Independence
Yes, a less independent Federal Reserve would be bad
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 27/08/2025
Do personalist regimes incur an economic penalty? Some new research says “yes” but in my weekly newsletter I muddy the waters a bit. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
Nothing Personal about Personalist Regimes
A recent study suggests that personalist forms of rule harm economic growth. Is that true, and should we be worried about the Trump Administration's personalist trajectory?
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
In my latest Substack post, I offer a synopsis and rationale for how I plan to handle AI in my classes on data visualization and international relations. #AI #IR #data open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
AI, Data, and International Relations in the Classroom
How I'm handling AI in my undergraduate courses
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
In my latest Substack post, I was inspired by the Alaska meeting between Trump and Putin to look at the past 80-ish years of conflict mediation by the U.S. to see if any patterns stick out. Two issues in particular caught my eye: ceasefires and territory exchange. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
About that Alaska Meeting...
The current US administration's approach to mediation in the Russia-Ukraine War is an outlier compared to America's approach since World War II
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 13/08/2025
Can you predict armed conflicts using Google Trends? I tackle this question in my latest Substack post. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
Predicting Armed Conflict with Google?
A cool idea, but lackluster based on the data
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
Do American troops abroad give the U.S. an edge over China in terms of soft power? The answer might surprise you. It surprised me. Check out my latest Substack post to learn more. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
U.S. Hard Power Begets...Chinese Soft Power?
How can that be?
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
In my latest Substack post, I look at compelling evidence that contact with US troops abroad generates goodwill toward America in host countries. Keeping troops stationed abroad is about more than hard power — it’s about soft power, too. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
Does Hard Power Beget Soft Power? Pt. 2
Yes, yes it does.
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
Are US troops abroad good or bad for America’s image? I start tackling that question in this first of a series of posts on Substack. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
Does Hard Power Beget Soft Power?
A look at survey data on assessments of U.S. troop presence
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 30/07/2025
Can foreign direct investment substitute for foreign aid? I offer my take in my latest Substack post. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
The Good and Bad News about FDI
Can private foreign investors fill the gap left by foreign aid cuts?
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
In my latest Substack post, I show why America’s tariff ultimatum on Russia is as toothless as a newborn baby. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
About That Tariff Ultimatum
Newborn babies have sharper teeth
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
In my latest on Substack, I ask who will win the AI arms race? The math is pretty simple. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
AI Nationalism
The simple math of who's winning the geopolitical race for AI dominance
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 18/07/2025
In my latest post, I offer a nerdy, deep in the weeds take on a complicated and a less complicated way to measure dissatisfaction in international relations. Turns out the complicated way gives you nearly identical results to the less complicated one. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
Dissatisfaction in International Relations
A nerdy take on measuring this important concept
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 16/07/2025
In my latest Substack post, I ask what factors predict greater numbers of non-peaceful protests breaking out in different countries. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
Can We Predict Non-Peaceful Protests?
Yes, we can!
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
In today’s Substack post, I offer a sobering meditation on the demise of USAID. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
The Real Tragedy of USAID
It's that no one really cares
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
In today’s Substack newsletter I use some trade data to think about the effectiveness of using tariffs to influence BRICS. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
A House Made of BRICS
A look at trade between the U.S. and BRICS members
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 04/07/2025
open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
open.substack.com
A New Balance of Power in Europe
As Europe questions U.S. commitments to European security, which country will take the lead?
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