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Miles Williams

@mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social
233 followers 612 following 186 posts

Denison U prof teaching #Rstats for data visualization and statistical modeling, researching int’l aid and conflict: milesdwilliams15.github.io mileswilliams.substack.com

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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
As tensions ramp up between India and Pakistan, it’s worth noting that these countries have a long history of military confrontations. I put this graph together with the Militarized Interstate Events dataset (internationalconflict.ua.edu/data-download/). Periods of conflict are a regular occurrence.
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
In my latest Substack I talk about BRICS and whether their proposed new currency will be bad for US $ dominance. Check it out: open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
It turns out that buying more U.S. exports is actually a great predictor of whether countries lower their average tariff rate on manufactured goods. For every 10x increase in U.S. exports a country buys, it lowers its tariff rate by 3 percentage points. 4/6
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
But while U.S. tariffs are much lower than other countries on average, when you put greater emphasis on the countries that buy U.S. exports you see convergence over time between U.S. tariffs and those of other countries. 3/6
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
First, it's true that the U.S. has historically maintained lower tariffs that much of the world. The attached data viz compares America's average tariff rate on manufactured goods to those of all other countries from 1990-2022. The U.S. stands out for its lower than average tariff rate. 2/6
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
Out of all the countries in the world, the US votes with Russia in the UN the least frequently (less than 25% of the time since the end of the Cold War). 1/3
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
How unusual is it for the U.S. to agree with Russia on UN resolutions? Since the end of WWII the U.S. voted the same way as Russia/USSR on average 20% of the time. 1/2
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
80 years of peace isn't actually great evidence that the likelihood of such wars has gone down. Actually, there's a 1 in 5 chance of seeing no systemic wars in 80 years by random chance.
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 13/02/2025
Doing things in America’s national interest is a good predictor of how much U.S. aid countries receive, historically. For example: countries that buy more U.S. exports can expect to get more aid (at least they used to). See below figure.
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 12/02/2025
I’m on a foreign aid kick. In my Substack tomorrow I tackle the question of who gets more aid from the U.S. The answer: countries that do stuff that serves America’s interests. mileswilliams.substack.com
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 10/02/2025
While the US spent more than a $100 billion on aid — once upon a time — it spent more than 5 times this on defense, and much much more across the whole range of gov’t expenditures. That’s a small line item on the budget that was yielding great returns to US interests.
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 07/02/2025
ICYMI: I wrote about how the absence of U.S. foreign aid doesn’t mean that all development relevant financing from the U.S. has disappeared. Net FDI far outpaces net aid over time. (See attached figure) 1/2
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
...the trade balance goes down, too. 3/4
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 03/02/2025
Not only are both imports and exports down in years that the U.S. increases its tariffs... 2/4
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 01/02/2025
The overall story of U.S. trade has a positive trajectory. But the scale of this trade means that even relatively minor ups and downs make for absolutely large changes. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico might not reverse these trends, but they’ll shortchange these trends by 10s of billions of dollars.
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
Mulling over my Monday post for Foreign Figures (mileswilliams.substack.com). I wanted to take a look at the link between US tariffs and imports and exports. I stumbled onto this finding, and I’m not sure yet what to make of it. 1/2
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
In my latest Substack I use some Kiel Institute data to break down US aid to Ukraine and put it in context with the giving of other donors as well. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 29/01/2025
Amid the chaos related to the US foreign aid freeze, I wanted to check out some fresh Kiel Institute data for tomorrow’s Foreign Figures post. This #dataviz offers a preview. The US is responsible for 100s of Bns in aid to Ukraine. A sudden freeze would be a destabilizing shock to the status quo.
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 26/01/2025
USAID, which was the main target of Trump’s freeze to US foreign assistance, is the responsible for the greatest amount of Ukrainian aid. [data from foreignassistance.gov ] I'll break down US aid to Ukraine from many more angles later this week in by Substack: mileswilliams.substack.com
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 25/01/2025
I’ve got Greenland on my mind for my Monday Substack. The gist: Greenland is vital for U.S. national security, but the U.S. already reaps the benefits — no need to shake things up. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 24/01/2025
The US doesn't need to possess Greenland to use it for national security. Using the {troopdata} #rstats package, I made this #dataviz of U.S. troops stationed in Greenland from 1950 to 2024. US troops are already there. Might make a good basis for a post on my Substack: mileswilliams.substack.com
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
A nugget from Thursday’s forthcoming post for Foreign Figures (mileswilliams.substack.com). As Trump calls for a freeze on all US foreign assistance, here’s a little reminder that a zero-sum mindset on aid to Ukraine just doesn’t square with the data.
A nugget from Thursday’s forthcoming post for Foreign Figures (https://mileswilliams.substack.com/). As Trump calls for a freeze on all US foreign assistance, here’s a little reminder that a zero-sum mindset on aid to Ukraine just doesn’t square with the data. US assistance to other countries did NOT decline as the US ramped up support for Ukraine.
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
I caught an error in a previous version of this post (I’m only human). Once I fixed it, US aid looks way less zero-sum. This data viz says it all. US obligations independent of aid to Ukraine didn’t really change even as the US sent billions more $ to Kyiv. #dataviz open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
I caught an error in a previous version of this post (I’m only human). Once I fixed it, US aid looks way less zero-sum. This data viz says it all. US obligations independent of aid to Ukraine didn’t really change even as the US sent billions more $ to Kyiv. #dataviz
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 19/01/2025
Coming tomorrow on Foreign Figures (mileswilliams.substack.com).
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 18/01/2025
U.S. aid to Ukraine has far surpassed U.S. giving to any other country since 2022. The orange line is aid to Ukraine in billions of dollars. The blue lines represent aid to all other individual countries in the U.S. foreign assistance database. More to come on by substack: mileswilliams.substack.com
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
One big question for me wrt US aid to Ukraine: are resources being drawn from other priorities? Not in 2022 but in 2023 the U.S. spent $10 bn less on foreign aid apart from what it gave to Ukraine. Worth exploring this more to see where those aid cuts came from. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 15/01/2025
Coming tomorrow on my Substack (mileswilliams.substack.com): the first in a series of posts putting foreign aid to Ukraine in context. Why? Because there are a lot of takes on aid to Ukraine, and all of these takes are based on some assumptions --- assumptions that we can use data to check.
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
Noodling on Thursday’s Foreign Figures (mileswilliams.substack.com). I’m planning to take a look at U.S. aid to Ukraine. Aid obviously spiked by a massive amount after Russia’s invasion, but how does this spike look in context with the sprawling U.S. assistance across the globe?
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 11/01/2025
Coming up on Monday for Foreign Figures: Is the U.S. a revisionist power? mileswilliams.substack.com
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
From UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset - Most common type of armed conflict today is intrastate (governments vs domestic rebels) - The one type that has increased the most in recent years is internationalized intrastate (intrastate conflicts that drag in other countries) mileswilliams.substack.com
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 10/01/2025
U.S. centrality in global trade was surpassed by China almost two decades ago. Another reason why blanket tariffs are a bad idea. mileswilliams.substack.com/p/would-hiki...
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
Int’l order is great for peace…except when there are competing orders. open.substack.com/pub/mileswil...
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 09/01/2025
It’s crazy how few pairs of countries are jointly members of the same international order in recent history. The way I often hear folks talk about international order, I expected the rate to be higher.
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
Coming up tomorrow for Foreign Figures. mileswilliams.substack.com
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 08/01/2025
The arguments here support my own recent analysis…there’s little evidence that Trump had a deterrent effect in his first term. Quite the opposite is true as the below data viz shows.
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
The term "International Order" keeps making the rounds. What is it and what is it good for? That's a question I plan to tackle in my Thursday newsletter. One thing I can already tell you from looking at the data...International Order is good for peace. mileswilliams.substack.com
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
Spoiler alert: US economic growth is slower in years that US tariffs go up.
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 04/01/2025
Coming up on Monday’s Foreign Figures… mileswilliams.substack.com
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 04/01/2025
I personally find it crazy that the US China trade war shows up as this big of a blip in aggregated yearly US tariff rates.
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Miles Williams @mdwilliamsphd.bsky.social · 02/01/2025
This is the most telling figure. Check out that spike under Trump.
US armed conflict participation reaches its peak under Trump
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