iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 25/08/2026

is this a conspiracy theory of sorts @mattnurse.com ? "Scientists often hide evidence that would challenge established views"

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 09/06/2026

privileged to be a part of the Australian Science Media Centre's science misinformation symposium here at UTS Sydney

View from the 7th floor of buildings. Blue sky

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 12/05/2026

we did too, and that's how this started for us. I remember laughing (then emailing) about this headline based on an early paper we wrote extrapolating prevalence estimates from an online (non probability) demographically representative sample. then there's the added risk of p's having you on!

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 08/04/2026

pretty sure it means Iran is really good at the art of the deal. $2M per tanker @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/04/06/w... also here: archive.is/3Kvia

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 31/03/2026

Framing of health-related narratives in conspiracy versus mainstream media Reiter-Haas, Klösch, Hadler, & Lex "mainstream and conspiracy media use some of the same terms to tell dramatically different narratives" journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Abstract
Online media shapes public opinion, with messages from opposing information sources
deepening polarization. How content is framed and presented determines its meaning
and impact on readers. To date, studies on framing have focused on finding certain
phrases, topics, or ideas characterizing messages from particular sources, a strategy
providing only limited results. In this study, we used a broader, agnostic approach that
involves extracting the narrative from text, including its characters, plot, setting, and
moral of the story, and the relationships between these elements. We translated text
from tens of thousands of health documents in the language of conspiracy corpus
(LOCO) into representations called semantic graphs. We then compared these graphs
across documents from conspiracy and mainstream sources. We found that conspiracy
media framed health through belief, emphasizing immediacy and individual impact,
whereas mainstream media used scientific framing with a long-term, institutional focus.
Shared words carried divergent narratives. As one example, in documents related to
COVID-19, conspiracy media emphasized preventing violence rather than preventing
infection (the mainstream narrative). Understanding conspiracy narratives is crucial for
policymakers and media platforms seeking to curb their spread. This understanding can
inform efforts to boost media literacy and reduce the number of posts peddling
misinformation. We suggest using automated tools and AI as an aid in both efforts.

Figure 1. Translation of two sentences into semantic graphs with narrative elements
Note. We extracted the narrative elements of sentences from conspiracy and mainstream documents using an algorithm that translated the text into semantic graphs, as shown above, which omit grammar such as prepositions and verb tenses. Simplified semantic graphs for two sentences—one from conspiracy and the other from mainstream media—depict narrative elements by color: blue for plot, orange for character, green for setting, and purple for attributes of character or setting. The arrows connecting the rectangles indicate a direct semantic relationship between two elements.

Figure 3. Comparing narrative elements across conspiracy & mainstream media in three health-related subject areas
Note. Words representing predominant narrative elements—plot, characters and setting—in conspiracy and mainstream texts were mapped according to their semantic properties (typical use in a sentence). For instance, combat terms (war, destroy, military) appeared in the conspiracy graphics in locations analogous to those of disease terms (infect, disease, patient) in the mainstream maps. Similarly, an immediate timeframe (today, tomorrow) in conspiracy media appeared where specific weeks, months, or years showed up in mainstream texts.

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 17/03/2026

Do Conspiracy Theories Undermine Support for Democracy? Amaral, Borba, Lira, Lessa & Pavão fascinating paper that used videos of a real event and conspiratorial narrative to see the effect on political attitudes link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Abstract

Conspiracy theories are widely viewed as harmful to politics, and a growing number of studies have sought to identify their detrimental effects. Our study adds to this literature by examining whether brief, realistic exposure to conspiracy theories about a major political event can undermine individuals’ commitment to a broad set of democratic norms. We rely on two online survey experiments conducted in Brazil with a total of 8 thousand respondents. Participants assigned to the treatment conditions were exposed to conspiracy theories surrounding the stabbing of then–presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro during a campaign event; control group participants viewed either the official account of the event or unrelated content. Subsequently, participants answered questions about democratic norms, institutional trust, and political hostility. We find some evidence that exposure to conspiracy theories reduces support for democracy, particularly in the electoral dimension. Surprisingly, non-partisans are more affected than partisans. Results also indicate that exposure to conspiracy theories reduces institutional trust but does not affect political hostility. However, the effects of conspiracy theories are not consistent across narratives, emerging more clearly in the one that blames the right for the event. These findings underscore the nuanced and specific nature of the influence of conspiracy theories on democratic values, which can help calibrate our concerns about these narratives.

Exposure to conspiracy theories decreases support for democracy and institutional trust, while having non-significant effects on partisan hostility. The estimates are derived from bivariate OLS regressions with conventional standard errors. Since the outcomes were collected in different studies, the sample size is n = 2, 401 for the model using the OSDI as the outcome variable and n = 3, 987 for the models with institutional trust and partisan hostility as outcomes

Effects of CTs across different dimensions of democratic support. Individuals exposed to con- spiracy theories are less willing to accept election results and less supportive of democracy in the abstract. Average treatment effect estimates with 95% (thin line) and 90% (thick line) confidence intervals for the causal effect of exposure to conspiracy theories on different dimensions of democratic support. The estimates are derived from bivariate OLS regressions with conventional standard errors. The sample size for all models is n = 2, 402

Exposure to Conspiracy Theories partially decreases trust in election results, make individuals slightly more willing to accept the Jan 8, 2022 attack to the Brazilian Congress, reduces beliefs that candidates should concede in the face of an electoral defeat, and decreases trust in elections. Average treatment effects with 90% and 95% confidence intervals (thick and thin lines, respectively). The models used to generate the figures are bivariate OLS regressions with conventional standard errors. The sample size is n = 3992 for all the models in the figure

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 05/03/2026

reminder that precision (or reliability) is somewhat useless without validity

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 31/01/2026

which rating should I add more weight to? also verified vs all audience has a large divide

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 29/01/2026

nice to be part of this multidisciplinary and international team led by Justin Phillips (nz), @timgravelle.bsky.social (ca), @acarson.bsky.social & me investigating whether facebook's 3rd party fact-checking increases #conspiracybelief TLDR; it doesn't really. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Figure 1. Treatment and control images
Image on the left shows mobile phone on facebook page with a section indicating false information checked by independent fact-checkers blurring out a photo. Image on the right is control image, of a facebook login screen.

Figure 2. Simple slopes, Facebook fact-check treatment, conspiracy mentality, and ideology.
This analysis indicated that our fact-check treatment increases perceptions of Facebook-related conspiracy beliefs, but only among participants who score highest on conspiracy mentality and who also identify as very conservative. The simple slope for this group is positive and significant (b = 0.079, s.e. = 0.040, p = 0.049). When either (or both) conspiracy mentality or ideology are at different values, the effect of the Facebook fact-check treatment is not significant (see Figure 2).

Figure 3. Simple slopes, Facebook fact-check treatment, conspiracy mentality, and party identification
This analysis indicated that our fact-check treatment increased perceptions of Facebook-related conspiracy beliefs, but primarily among Independents who either scored high or scored low on conspiracy mentality (see Figure 3). The fact-check treatment pushes these two groups in opposite directions: while Independents in the control condition closely resembled Republicans, they diverged substantially when exposed to the Facebook fact-check treatment. Specifically, those scoring highest on conspiracy mentality were more likely to agree with the statement that Facebook is manipulating the public through fact-checks (b = 0.181, s.e. = 0.077, p = 0.019), while those who scored lowest were less likely to agree with such a belief (b = −0.315, s.e. = 0.110, p = 0.004).

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 22/01/2026

Who is positive about precision health technologies? Demographic and psychological factors associated with science opposition Golley, @scicomguy.bsky.social, Walshe, & I examine the psychological / ideological antecedents of attitudes to precision health see here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Abstract
Objective

Anti-science sentiment has the potential to become a major societal problem, and research has started considering the psychological and ideological antecedents of science rejection of novel science and technologies. Precision Health (e.g. human genetic mapping, health data digitalisation and access, wearable devices and digital apps) aims to pre-empt disease onset through the development of proactive, personalised solutions to health problems.
Methods and Measures

In a preregistered study using a national sample of adult Australians (N = 997) we predicted attitudes to 10 Precision Health science areas from socio-demographic and psychological variables.
Results

On average Australians were positive towards precision health technologies (Ms = 5.03–5.66, 7-point scale). Increased institutional trust in health, science, and medicine (B = 0.49, SE = 0.04) and being older (B = 0.004, SE = 0.002) significantly predicted positive attitudes. Institutional trust in governments, conspiracy belief, social dominance orientation, right-wing authoritarianism, tertiary-education level, importance of religion/spirituality and political ideology did not.
Conclusion

The majority of Australians were favourable towards Precision Health, with institutional trust playing a key role in positive attitudes. We note the importance of understanding the role of social and ideological antecedents of science opposition now, and going forward with the development of technologies.

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 15/01/2026

Manipulating Minds: The Psychological Underpinnings of Misinformation @slvdlv.bsky.social & Wagner-Egger "As Rouquette (2004) illustrates through a metaphor, propaganda is akin to a cake" link.springer.com/content/pdf/...

Beyond cognitive processes, economic factors also play a fundamental role in the production and dissemination of propaganda, much like other cultural products. In this sense, propaganda is not necessarily assessed in terms of truth or falsity but rather by its effectiveness and impact. As Rouquette (2004) illustrates through a metaphor, propaganda is akin to a cake: “A cake is neither true nor false: simply, it is good or bad, successful or unsuccessful. A cake is not made to last, but to be eaten. And let’s not forget that a cake is not a staple food: it’s not enough to live on. And finally, I wouldn’t dream of asking a pastry chef to explain the world to me.”

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 14/01/2026

Does Political Trust Foster or Hinder Volunteering? A Longitudinal Investigation in the United Kingdom @fannylalot.bsky.social & Abrams fascinating results that changes in nat/local trust differentially precede changes in volunteering journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

Abstract
Volunteering plays a growing role in supporting community resilience in times of crisis. This paper takes a closer look at the role of political trust for volunteering, distinguishing between trust in local and national government. We conduct secondary analysis of a large-scale longitudinal social survey in the United Kingdom (three timepoints, N = 5,039), to estimate a random-intercept cross-lagged panel model to assess the relationships between political trust and volunteering over time. Results reveal a positive link at the between-person level between volunteering and local but not national trust (random intercepts). At the within-person level (cross-lagged paths), an increase in local trust is related to a greater likelihood of volunteering 3 months later. Moreover, an increase in national trust is related to a lower likelihood of volunteering. We highlight implications for initiatives to promote civic engagement.

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 01/01/2026

often imitated, never surpassed buy the original zapatopi.net/afdb/

side image of a dummy wearing tin foil on their head

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 29/12/2025

managed 10,000km for the year on the bike and it was only possible as I was supported by a wonderful family. only fitting most of them joined me for the final few kms to hit the milestone

boy riding a bike on a side gravel bike path out of saddle

woman following young boy both on bicycles on a road

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 28/12/2025

thankful to have friends who also enjoy the joys of riding in the hills

two cyclists side by side heading up a windey road climb surrounded by lush forest greenery

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 28/12/2025

post a perfect album from the 90s that isn't nirvana, pearl jam, soundgarden, or alice in chains

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 27/12/2025

wood fired pizza prep for family tonight

Bench with pizza ingredients. Vaseline with tomato, condiments and a few pizza balls ready to roll out

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 27/12/2025

Testing the socio-functional model: Does precarity cause conspiracy belief? TLDR; probably not huge thx: Antipodean Misinformation and Conspiracies Club @matthewmatix.bsky.social @lingtax.bsky.social @scicomguy.bsky.social @srhastraea.bsky.social @eddieclarke.bsky.social & students osf.io/nq3y7/

Abstract
Research seeking to explain why people believe conspira-
cies has largely focused on intrapsychic factors, but there is
growing research examining structural-level elements of dis-
advantage. The socio-functional model of conspiracy belief
(Adam-Troian et al., 2023, British Journal of Social Psycholog y,
62, 136) posits that subjective feelings of permanent inse-
curity arising from objective material strain (i.e., precarity)
cause conspiracy belief directly or indirectly through insti-
tutional distrust. Across three preregistered studies using
observational longitudinal designs over 3 (n = 637) and
11 months (n = 832), and a between-group experimental de-
sign (n = 285), we use various methods to estimate causal ef-
fects for this proposition during the current cost-of-living
crisis. In Studies 1 and 2 using random intercept cross-
lagged panel models, we find no evidence that increases in
precarity temporally precede increases in conspiracy belief
(or vice versa) but find stable between-persons effects over
time. In Study 3, despite successfully manipulating precarity
using a self-imagine paradigm, we find no direct or indirect
effect on conspiracy belief through decreased government
trust. We discuss the importance of using methods that per-
mit credible causal inferences and key directions for future
studies investigating the socio-functional model.

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 22/12/2025

Belief in science-related conspiracy theories is not just a matter of knowledge: The democratic quality of countries as a protective factor @irelopeznavarro.bsky.social & Santos-Requej journals.plos.org/plosone/arti...

Abstract

Concerns regarding the increasing prevalence of conspiracy theory beliefs are growing in public discourse. This study investigates science-related conspiracy theories due to their significant potential impact on individual and global health. Using data from a Special Eurobarometer survey (n = 37,079), our research demonstrates the importance of considering public perceptions of science when trying to understand the acceptance of such conspiracy theory beliefs. They are strongly associated with mistrust in scientists and lower level of knowledge. But there is a key factor at the country level, the quality of democracy, which plays a protective role against the acceptance of unwarranted beliefs. Even individuals with lower levels of knowledge or greater mistrust of scientists are less likely to believe in science-related conspiracy theories if they live in democratic countries than in authoritarian states.

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 17/12/2025

good morning. I think our dog is broken.

A black Labrador named Bowie on a run on his back with legs in the air relaxing

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 16/12/2025

Longitudinal analysis shows possible distinct patterns of associations between conspiracy beliefs and either institutional distrust or the sense of precarity findings here suggest b/w person associations over time, rather than w/i changes bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Magdalena Adamus, Jakub Šrol, Eva Ballová Mikušková, Jais Adam-Troian, Maria Chayinska

Abstract

The paper reports longitudinal analyses examining the extent to which institutional trust mediates the relationship between individuals' sense of precarity and their adherence to conspiracy beliefs. Across three waves, 925 participants (50.2% female) between the ages of 18 and 85 (M = 49.53; SD = 15.81) reported subjective appraisals of their financial situation (precarity), trust in institutions and adherence to conspiracy beliefs. The current study extends the previous analyses by including three-wave longitudinal data. The preregistered autoregressive cross-lagged panel model supports the notion that a sense of precarity follows adherence to conspiracy beliefs rather than preceding them, while institutional (dis)trust and conspiracy beliefs show a bidirectional pattern. However, the random-intercept cross-lagged panel model does not corroborate this, suggesting that the effects may be driven by stable between-person differences rather than actual within-person changes. Additionally, the latter model reveals two separate temporal patterns linking conspiracy beliefs with either the sense of precarity or institutional trust, opening the possibility that our results were driven by two distinct underlying mechanisms. The paper discusses the importance of longitudinal studies for a more accurate understanding of social-psychological realities in which conspiracy beliefs and suspicions of institutions may flourish.

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 14/12/2025

Does Repetition Increase Perceived Truth Equally for Conspiracy and Trivia Statements? @shaunambowes.bsky.social @lkfazio.bsky.social see osf.io/b2pk4/ implications include for the monological belief theory, hearing/believing in on CT -> belief in others (onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....)

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 10/12/2025

I think I see smoke coming out of this Dell work computer

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 08/12/2025

here's the abstract and I look forward to seeing the accepted manuscript in print.

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 02/12/2025

this is a month late, but to all who celebrate "Loved hanging out today in Wuhan, China. Ate some seriously interesting things (more to come about that) and met some beautiful people. China is stunning in so many ways" www.instagram.com/p/B4XOiijjxs... www.facebook.com/guysebastian...

Guy Sebastian wearing a red tee shirt doing a zen? sign with his left hand near a local in Wuhan China dated November 2 2019.

Text reads:

Loved hanging out today in Wuhan, China. Ate some seriously interesting things (more to come about that) and met some beautiful people. China is stunning in so many ways #China #LetMeDrink

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 27/11/2025

Short Dialogues with AI Reduce Belief in Antisemitic Conspiracy Theories www.adl.org/resources/re...

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 26/11/2025

our dear leader @matthewmatix.bsky.social has posted on what the Antipodean Misinformation and Conspiracies Club has been up to over the past few years www.royalsociety.org.nz/research/new...

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 23/10/2025

honestly, I hope this paper leads to some serious discussion because it has some key important learnings. also I think some of us feel like we missed a beat in not labeling it the 'moustache' effect (as we do in private), so we'll have to be happy with M or W effects in public.

Highlights

The midpoint of the left–right self-placement item is hiding important political diversity and may be conflating moderate responders with populists and other political subgroups.
Survey researchers should consider this problem when examining relationships between political orientation and political attitudes. We suggest testing for nonlinearity in these relationships, and measuring anti-establishment and populist beliefs separately.
Researchers interested in building theories explaining the psychological underpinnings of ideological extremism should also consider the possibility that a qualitatively different type of ideological extremist self-places on the midpoint.

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 22/10/2025

my kind of research. cycling and politics! "We find that even brief, positive interventions move votes away from the far right, which is in line with the left-behind accounts" sciety-discovery.elifesciences.org/articles/by?...

Cycling through Elections: The Political Consequences of the Tour de France

Ala Alrababah
Maelle Delouis-Jost
Germain Gauthier
Adam Polak

Abstract

Do place-based interventions that raise visibility and economic activity affect far-right voting? We study the Tour de France (TdF) as a case of brief but visible exposure that combines economic activity with symbolic recognition. Using variation in the annual TdF route between 2002 and 2022, we show that exposed municipalities experience declines in far-right support of 0.03–0.04 standard deviations. The effect exceeds 0.1 standard deviations in recent elections and is strongest in poorer areas and in towns with high prior far-right support. We find evidence consistent with the symbolic mechanism and mixed evidence for the economic one. TdF exposure increases local GDP per capita, effects on voting are larger when French riders win stages, and a two-wave survey around the 2025 TdF provides suggestive evidence that residents in exposed towns report greater recognition. These results contribute to research on geographic inequalities, symbolic politics, and the consequences of place-based interventions.

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 16/10/2025

this morning, a sobering and important read It’s (a) Shame: Why Poverty Leads to Support for Authoritarianism @neerdaels.bsky.social, Tröster & Van Quaquebeke journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

Abstract
The literature has widely discussed and supported the relationship between poverty and support for authoritarian leaders and regimes. However, there are different claims about the mediating mechanism and a lack of empirical tests. We hypothesize that the effect of poverty on support for authoritarianism is mediated by shame: People living in poverty frequently experience social exclusion and devaluation, which is reflected in feelings of shame. Such shame, in turn, is likely to increase support for authoritarianism, mainly due to the promise of social re-inclusion. We support our hypothesis in two controlled experiments and a large-scale field study while empirically ruling out the two main alternative explanations offered in the literature: stress and anxiety. Finally, we discuss how the present findings can support policymakers in efficiently addressing the negative political consequences of poverty.

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 15/10/2025

picked up a copy of this at a local--although it was described as a coffee table book to me, maybe for tiny coffee tables? (h/t @lingtax.bsky.social) "This book deals with Design and Conspiracy Theories, two things that are often thought of as opposites" www.setmargins.press/books/conspi...

Holding a copy of a small book titled Conspiratorial Design with timber decking floor in the background.

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 05/10/2025

amazing (first time for me) visit to royal botanic gardens. incredible flora and fauna (also saw a bandicoot)

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 28/09/2025

my TV viewing buddy (Bowie) fast asleep during the UCI Elite Men's Road World Championship #couchpeloton

Black Labrador sleeping on couch with television on in background with UCI Cycling Qorld Championships Elite Men race

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 23/09/2025

here are two examples of expert science communication around the links between paracetamol/tylenol and autism--responding to medical myths. on the left is a good example, where the myth is raised, explained, evidence provided to explain lack of support for the myth. one on the right, not so much.

Australia’s peak medical body, the Australian Medical Association (AMA), said no studies supported the Trump administration’s claims linking paracetamol to autism in children.

The AMA president, Dr Danielle McMullen, told ABC radio that some studies had shown an “association”.

“But there’s also been really large studies showing that there’s no association,” she said.

“And it’s important to remember that association doesn’t mean cause. It could be that there’s a whole range of things that happened during pregnancies, and one of those was that the pregnant mother took paracetamol, but it also could be that she had a fever or there were genetic factors.

“In fact, in autism, it’s most likely that autism is linked with genetic factors as its primary driver but we really don’t know the full cause of autism.”

Scientific research has shown there might be a link between paracetamol use in pregnancy and autism, but no causal relationship has been proven.

“Evidence is mixed,” said Associate Professor Kevin Yap from La Trobe University.

Australian researchers have also warned that, contrary to Trump’s advice, there are risks from not treating high fever during pregnancy. A sustained high fever is associated with an increased risk of miscarriage, stillbirth and fetal malformations. Experts advise that paracetamol is the safest way to control a fever in pregnancy.

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 22/09/2025

good point. I think pushing the narrative that taking them separately is somehow safer--despite the available evidence, but you know feelings!--not only erodes confidence, but a bunch of other factors that feed into vaccination decision (see BeSD framework)

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 01/09/2025

right. I use this as an example in lectures on conformity with a set of tweets illustrating false consensus and pluralistic ignorance effects (c/o this exchange between @ulliecker.bsky.social and @joshbutler.bsky.social )

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mat marques, ph.d. @mdmarques.com · 19/08/2025

once again, almost 70yrs ago social psychologists were talking about this with failed prophecies for 'cults'. the four conditions continue to strengthen the belief, despite evidence of disconfirmatory evidence. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/When_Pr...