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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 2h

I would urge caution in interpreting the Minnesota absentee voting stats from earlier this week. Some counties' accepted-by-mail numbers are clearly lagging in ways that only elections office issues can plausibly account for, not voter behavior or USPS performance. www.sos.mn.gov/election-adm...

sos.mn.gov

Office of the State Of Minnesota Secretary of State

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 13h

Wait, you're telling me Trump's statement was calculated to boost his political supporters in one state and undermine his opponents in another, rather than to truthfully report the facts? I'm shocked. (H/t MPR Capitol View) www.kwqc.com/2026/09/29/t...

kwqc.com

Done deal? Despite White House claims, major hurdles remain for Iowa’s $15B steel plant

The Iowa Legislature will meet Friday in a special session to debate incentives for the company to build in Iowa.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

I got questions about whether one can tell how many "mail" ballots are dropped off vs. mailed in and whether one can tell the USPS's speed. In both cases I had to say, not with published info. But see those relatively flat spots in the curves on Tuesdays? Those suggest a lot of two-day mail.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

How strong a start did Minneapolis get toward voting in this election? Strong enough that it took until today for the previous two midterm elections, combined, to equal the votes cast in this single election.

Line chart of Cumulative Minneapolis Votes with the line for 2018+2022 just crossing the line for 2026 at the most recent day

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Wondering when it would become apparent that the first week isn't the end of the story? It's happened. Note in particular how sharply the two presidential years picked up once the ballots really started flowing.

Cummulative Minneapolis Votes graph with sharp upturn at end

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Anyone know who is behind this advertising?

Posters on a roadside retaining wall: "Minnesota nice has it's limits, vote early"; "Vote early Minneapolis, Sept 18 - Nov 2"; "Take one, vote early"; "Vote early, go here"

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Well, will you look at that. This week's Thursday is the first of a month. That means if the Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State holds to their usual schedule, the weekly release of absentee voting statistics will coincide with the monthly release of registered voter counts.

Calendar heading with today highlighted as Monday, September 28, and Thursday, October 1st circled.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

The more high-status citizens can be cleared with behind the scenes database matching, the fewer will be left to serve as allies for the low-status citizens forced to affirmatively document their citizenship.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

I'm old-fashioned enough that I think final battles ought to only happen once.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 26/09/2026

I will warn against extrapolating from early data until I'm blue in the face, but in the first week, Minneapolitans did a lot of voting.

Cumulative Minneapolis Votes, First Week of General Election, for 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024, and 2026. The line for 2026 looks much more like the lines from the two presidential elections, 2020 and 2024, than like th eones for the midterm elections, 2018 and 2022. At the end of the one week period, it is only slightly below the 2020 record level.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Update: my ballot was accepted and will be counted. No need for Plan B, because Plan A worked. You don't think I just *assume* voting by mail works, do you? mnvotes.gov/track

Screenshot featuring the language "Your ballot was accepted by the ballot board on September 24, 2026 and will be counted."

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

There's a really fine line between giving people on both sides of the political spectrum reasons to like you and giving people on both sides of the political spectrum reasons to dislike you.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

"In the first six days of voting, local election officials in Minnesota have distributed 384,995 absentee and mail ballots. To date, 8,403 voters have cast their ballots in person and 3,919 have returned their ballots by mail." (See caveat in the next post.) www.sos.mn.gov/about-the-of...

sos.mn.gov

Office of the State Of Minnesota Secretary of State

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Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Incredible. First Secretary Mullin claimed that DHS had identified 15,903 noncitizens on Nevada’s voter roll. Then DHS officials told a skeptical Nevada, no no no, that’s just people we flagged. Here are the names of 185 people we KNOW aren’t citizens. All 185 were citizens. DHS got 100% wrong.

When the Department of Homeland Security sent Nevada a list of 185 names last month that it claimed identified noncitizens who had been improperly allowed to register to vote, state election officials got to work.
On Tuesday, the state sent a strongly worded rebuke to the federal government: Every single person on the list was a lawful citizen.
"As for the 185 individuals, our records indicate that they were citizens," Greg D. Ott, a deputy attorney general in Nevada, wrote, according to a copy of a letter sent to Department of Homeland Security officials obtained through open records requests.
"You have provided nothing of substance to suggest otherwise."

Following the meeting, Ms. Vogt sent a clarifying email to Nevada officials. "I also wanted to be sure I clarified that we did not reduce the 15,903 to 185," she wrote. "We've manually reviewed some of the 15,903 and confirmed 185 are not U.S. Citizens."
Now, Nevada officials are saying even that 185 number is wrong. They also took issue with a letter D.H.S. sent them in early September, in which the agency reiterated its initial claims about nearly 16,000 noncitizens on the rolls and pressured state officials to review each case in a letter to Nevada officials in early September.

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Kate Starbird @katestarbird.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Here's a good test case for our framework, demonstrating how a real incident can be turned into a false "rigged election" rumor or narrative. Here the DOJ highlights a case where a postal worker discarded mail that included ballots, and uses that to suggest voter fraud and untrustworthy elections.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

So if class action settlement claims administrator Simpluris has such bad software that it prevents a whole bunch of claimants from getting the settlements they are entitled to, is that the kind of injury that could lead to a class action lawsuit against them? Who would administer the claims?

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

You don't think I just harangue *other* people to vote, do you?

Ballot envelope being placed in outgoing mail

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

Saw a post about an exciting piece of biomedical research. (Quote posting disabled for some reason.) Two co first authors and a senior author with 22 others spread over 3 universities funded by 9 NIH grants, the NSF, a California state agency, and a long list of private funders. That's how it works.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

How long before election day should I mail my ballot back? I get asked that question sometimes by Minnesotans. I'd say the answer depends not just on how long mail from your location to the elections office normally takes, but also on how good your Plan B is for what to do if that time is exceeded.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

What lessons for the Minneapolis Public Schools election are people drawing from Melissa Whitler's and Becky Dernbach's finance reporting in the Minnesota Reformer and Sahan Journal, respectively? Do we need people already up to speed on the financial management issues or a fresh perspective?

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

We'll surely see statistics showing that voting is off to a strong start in Minnesota. So take this as your regular reminder that it's hard to tell whether the usual number of voters are participating but shifting earlier or whether more voters are participating.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

When even the DinkyDome looks good rather than like silly kitsch, you know the hour is truly golden.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

I'd want to quit, too, if I were sent to a hearing armed with lines like "I would think the states would want the information to ensure that the ballots that they think they’re sending out are ⁠the ballots that are actually being sent out." www.reuters.com/world/us-pos...

reuters.com

EXCLUSIVE: US Postal Service chief told associates he wants to quit, sources say

The head of the U.S. Postal Service has told confidants that he is deeply discouraged by his job and wants to resign, according to four people familiar with his thinking, as the ‌agency comes under s...

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Heads up, Minnesota. Do not read this Democracy Docket article. It utterly misstates the situation. Get your information about Minnesota from authoritative Minnesota sources.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Historically I've celebrated National Voter Registration Day by suggesting even Minnesotans should check that they have up to date registration. Yes, you can register or update when voting, but your voting experience is smoother if you have it already taken care of. But this year is different ...

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Got carried away with my enthusiasm for voting and briefly posted a version that over-stated how soon one could vote in person in Minnesota. Sorry about that.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Are you a Minnesota voter? Guess what you get to do. You get to vote! Pretty much whenever and however you like. If you got a ballot in the mail today you could mail it back tomorrow. Or later. Or drop it off tomorrow. Or up to 5pm on November 3rd. Or you could go vote in person. Friday. Or later.

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Steve Vladeck @stevevladeck.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

#BREAKING: Over public dissents from Justices Thomas and Alito, #SCOTUS *denies* the Trump administration’s request for a stay in the mail-in ballots case. The USPS Rule will remain blocked—almost certainly through the midterms.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

If I lived in a state that was not a plaintiff in the case lead by California — if I lived in Utah or Kentucky, say — I would be breathing a sigh of relief. The end of the story hasn't been written yet for any of us, but this reduces the odds of a state-by-state patchwork.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Yes, "some of Minnesota's reddest counties rely most on remote voting." But some also rely least on it. Overally, there's no association at all. The article mentions Cook County as a high by-mail blue county but not Redwood and others as low by-mail red counties. www.minnpost.com/elections/20...

Scatter plot of the Minnesota November 2024 election by county. The vertical axis is the Trump % from official results and the horizontal axis is the Vote-by-Mail % from the Election Administration and Voting Survey. In the top right, Lake of the Woods, Marshall, and Grant Counties would be examples of Trump-friendly counties with high use of vote-by-mail. In the top left, Redwood, Sherburne, and many others would be example of Trump-friendly counties with low use of vote-by-mail. At the bottom of the chart, Harris-friendly counties include Hennepin and Ramsey, with moderate use of vote-by-mail, and Cook, with heavy use of it.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Deleted a statistical post when I in realized the data was wrong. A source that wasn't supposed to include in-person absentee votes with those cast by mail clearly did include them. If I can straighten out the data, I'll repost.

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Sam Bergman @violanorth.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Every time there's some new "this is the future, get started doing this instead of what you've been doing or you'll be irrelevant in a year" bleat coming out of Silicon Valley, I think about all the people who told us with dead certainty that cell phone ringtones were the inevitable future of music.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Game day. Otherwise known as when a bunch of non-transit-riders ride the Green Line and have to figure out the ticket machine. They'd stand out a mile away even without the purple jerseys and, in one case, face paint.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Walking every block of every street in every neighborhood of Minneapolis has most recently brought me through the southern half of the Northrop neighborhood. allofminneapolis.com/southern-nor...

allofminneapolis.com

Southern Northrop

Minneapolis’s Northrop neighborhood lies to the north of Minnehaha Creek between Chicago and Cedar Avenues, extending as far north as 42nd…

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Confused about when Minnesota ballots are mailed? The statutes have 5 answers, all depending: 1. "at least 46 days before [the election]" 2. "as soon as absentee ballots are available" 3. "promptly" 4. "as promptly as possible" 5. "not more than 46 days nor later than 28 days before any election."

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Do not share social media posts offering advice about election administration that don't specify which state they are referring to. For example, I have seen lots of posts urging use of ballot drop boxes. There are states with none. Minnesota has a few, in areas with less than 6% of registered voters

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

For me, 9/11 stands as a reminder that every day is, like that day, a branching point in history. What each of us does today determines which tomorrow we all will live in. That's true even if our actions don't make the news or get remarked upon 25 years later.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

For the first time in my life, I find myself regretting having not filed an amicus brief. Would it have made a difference? Who knows. But to a greater or lesser extent, depending on the reasoning in the opinion that follows, this order has the potential to be very disruptive, and I didn't even try.

IT IS HEREBY ORDERED THAT:
1. The petition is granted to the extent it seeks a declaration and order that,
under Minn. Stat. § 201.225, the City of Oak Grove has the authority to determine
whether paper or electronic voter rosters are used at precincts within the City of Oak
Grove’s boundaries, and that the City of Oak Grove has chosen to use paper voter rosters
at precincts within its boundaries for the 2026 general election.
2. So as not to impair the orderly election process, this order is issued with
opinion to follow.
Dated: September 11, 2026

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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 11/09/2026

"Please right your right hand. I pledge to the greatest president in history that loves us so much he can't even breathe" -- in extremely culty scene, Trump has his supporters pledge to him that they will vote, then tells them they will "go to hell" if they don't Here's the full sequence:

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Hey, AI! Make me a pie chart! It doesn't have to make any sense, so long as it is bright and bold and colorful.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

I now can see what my ballot will look like, rather than just a list of the candidates. I know I won't have to wait long for a real ballot that doesn't say "SAMPLE," but I still get a charge out of seeing it. myballotmn.sos.mn.gov

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

Unsurprisingly, the oral argument today tracked the parties' briefs rather than my commentary. So the matter is submitted for the justices' consideration on as unclear a basis as ever. We'll have to wait and see what they make of it.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

"It strikes me, that's a very narrow use of the word 'use'." (Minnesota Chief Justice Hudson)

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

As he says, "and yet." We won't know what the Supremes do until they do it. I can even imagine a scenario in which the USPS rule goes into effect for some states and not others. But for now the message is: keep calm and carry on.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

I'm seeing a resurgence of myths from 6 years ago (or more) regarding how the mailing of ballots works and what the one weird trick is that will ensure your ballot gets through quickly and reliably.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Sadly, in a brief time many people have already gotten the idea that they *ought* to substitute a word-tossing machine for themselves. That its right-sounding word salad is superior to their thoughts, their knowledge, and their voice. Even the third of these has value beyond its link to the others.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Oh, but it's not just that it's her husband's home state. It's also that her kids wanted to stay here. So, in short, the state matters to people who matter to her. And she decided that transitive mattering was enough to overrider her own personal desire to leave. A real ringing endorsement.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Anyone know anything about these two parcels, totaling 6.7 acres, owned by an LLC associated with Hubbard Broadcasting and adjacent to the Hubbard/KSTP site? A portion is used as parking, but they seem to be hanging onto quite a bit of vacant land. Nearly entirely vacant as far back as I've looked.

Aerial imagery with lot lines and street labels and wo parcels crudely highlighted

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

I guess if I were a journalist looking to do a story on the challenges of mailing out ballots, I might give Itasca County a call.

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Max Hailperin @maxhailperin.bsky.social · 07/09/2026

Over the next couple weeks, Minnesota jurisdictions will mail out their initial ballots. My experience says that the size of these initial mailouts for the general election will be similar to the total mailouts over the course of the primary, so about what's shown here. www.datawrapper.de/_/9m7u4/

datawrapper.de

Estimated Mailed-Out Ballots, 2026 Primary | Created with Datawrapper

Estimated as applications minus in-person acceptance

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