Here are considerations for statisticians and scientists, about system thinking and onboarding context 🧵
#liveability #Cybernetics #inference #modeling #modelling #complexity #systems #generalization #statistics #models #ML #evolvability #doubleDescent #overfitting #overparameterization #stats […]
hachyderm.io
Original post on hachyderm.io
![Consequence paths of CO₂ emissions from land use change and fires:
(Mining [not shown in chart],) climate change and forest management contribute to forest degradation and wildfires; which in turn force the greenhouse effect.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ghfylraepxvzz7zjex4nelzw/bafkreidwtyibzac3grozg7hv4bfi2vddcggxwrb3mrz7gkbrdwl4nlh4mq)
![The chart is temperatures plotted against years (from 1940 to 2026).
It graphs temperatures averaged over four weeks in European France since 1940 [the month Pétain made his first broadcast to the French people].
A curve in red is made from statistical regression (loess method: smoothness determined with cross-validation) to build a statistical central trend.
We may look at the difference between monthly index and trend:
The red point represents the average of mid-June to mid-July 2026. Its high position is not absurd: it shows within the distribution of variability around the trend.
June 1976 and 2003 were outliers, "black swan" like, events: June and mid-June to mid-July 2003 were 3.7 °C away from the trend, when 2026 June is only 1.7°C.
The same kind of extreme period this year would have shown an average at 2°C more.
The calculations and graph were made by Denis Mongin @denismongin.bsky.social
The above comments were built from his. Below comments come from me.
Incidently you may note that 2022 was the year the French President said "Mais qui aurait pu prédire ?" and the monthly index exactly is at the trend curve.
Data was mangled by averaging over the month. This has the benefit of showcasing a general enhancement: across the country, day and night.
Data was uploaded from weather stations located in Europe. The method was chosen by the national weather service.
The method purposely excludes weather stations located in France but not in Europe – such as Guyane, a territory neighbour to the Amazon basin.
Florent Malouda was born in Guyane. He is one of the greatest wingers in the history of the Chelsea football club. Malouda represented the France national football team on 80 occasions from 2004 to 2012, including in two FIFA World Cups and two European Championships. He was part of the French team which reached the 2006 World Cup final.
Among the players selected for the 2026 FIFA World Cup is Mike Maignan. He plays as the goalkeeper for and captains Serie A club AC Milan. Mike Maignan was born in French Guiana, to a Haitian mother and a Guadeloupean father.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:r65vd2vzcexogp3dedufmysm/bafkreib5jix7qssjjlsg6plvahtd3z2tupwpyfbsuwdav7ofjzsgwppebe)
