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Tony Corke

@matterofstats.bsky.social
606 followers 362 following 4K posts

#rstats, maths, science, quirky stuff, and Aussie Rules football. @matterofstats on Twitter "Your data is not required to follow a well-defined distribution"

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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 4h
ICYMI yesterday
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 16h
Ah, the Missing Through Casual Indifference category
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Reposted by Tony Corke
graphichunters.bsky.social @graphichunters.bsky.social · 21h
NEW TRAINING Typography plays a crucial role in how we read, understand, and engage with data. In this hands-on training with Eleni Beveratou, we'll explore how typefaces can shape the hierarchy, clarity, and character of a data visualisation. December 1 & 2, Utrecht graphichunters.nl/typography/
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 23h
How long does <insert current men's AFL player name> have left in his career? (Warning: long read without a TL;DR) www.matterofstats.com/mafl-stats-journal/2026/10/6/predicting-ultimate-mens-afl-career-length
matterofstats.com
Predicting Ultimate Men's AFL Career Length — Matter of Stats
THE QUESTION The analysis in this blog was designed to answer a single, seemingly simple, question: “ Given only what was known immediately after a player's 1st, 10th, 25th, 50th or 100th game,...
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Over exactly what, I feel obliged to enquire. Other, lesser cheeses, or more radical items and/or issues?
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Reposted by Tony Corke
Ben Raue @benraue.com · 05/10/2026
Today I’m starting something new with the Tally Room podcast: a three-part history podcast looking at the history of OPV in Australia, rolling out over the next 3 weeks. This first episode looks at early debates on preferential voting and how it worked up to 1951. www.tallyroom.com.au/68638
tallyroom.com.au
Podcast #168 – Just Vote 1: The rise of preferential voting
In the first in a three-party election history series about Optional Preferential Voting called ‘Just Vote 1’, Ben explores the rise of preferential voting – how it happened, who …
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Id say that's reasonable
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The correlation between Brownlow Votes and AFL Player Ratings wasn't especially different this season to previous seasons
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Reposted by Tony Corke
Michael Friendly @datavisfriendly.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
📦 #rstats heplots 1.8.6 is on CRAN 🎉 Visualizing hypothesis tests in multivariate linear models. New: a 2-page cheatsheet, robmlm() directly on a fitted mlm, and fixes to termMeans() & eigstatCI() found while making the sheet. friendly.github.io/heplots/
Thumbnails of the two landscape pages of the heplots cheatsheet. Page 1, "Fit & visualize", has a basics panel, a code template, a grid of HE plot types and tests of linear hypotheses. Page 2, "Check, refine & report", has plots for covariance homogeneity, normality, outliers and robust fits, plus panels on customizing plots, coefficient plots, model statistics and datasets.
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Latest AFLW sims are up www.matterofstats.com/aflw-1/2024/10/14/aflw-2026-simulations-after-round-8
matterofstats.com
AFLW 2026 - Simulations After Round 8 — Matter of Stats
This year’s post Round 8 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below: For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the Gen...
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Latest WoSHBODS Team Ratings
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
WoSHBODS R8 Results are up www.matterofstats.com/aflw-1/2023/...
matterofstats.com
AFLW 2026- Round 8 Results - Another Nibble — Matter of Stats
WoSHBODS tipped 5 from 9 winners this week, as did the bookmakers. Its Margin MAE was 17.1 points per game, compared to 16.7 and 17.3 for the two bookmakers, and its Total MAE was 22.8 points per gam...
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
Lucky or unlucky on FMI AFLW this week?
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
WIth one to play in FMI AFLW
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
AFLW Teams form very distinctive bands in terms of their likelihood of producing low-scoring quarters
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Just quietly wondering how many of my AFLW scripts would have broken - some maybe silently - if STK hadn't kicked that behind in the last 90 seconds of the game
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Next, the Wondrians
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
After Game 3 of FMI AFLW
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
After Game 2 of FMI AFLW
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
"Did you go with the units that have the enclosed or the al fresco letter boxes?"
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
FMI AFLW after Game 1
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Hope you're feeling better soon
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Here's one to be going on with
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
This year's men's AFL rewarded offence at a rate not seen since 2009
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Source: Wikipeedia
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
MYOB just casually notifying business users of a 67% price increase in its per employee payroll charge (from $3 to $5 per employee PER PAY!)
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Brisbane 2026 very much out on its own as a Premier
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
The all-time view is eerily similar, too
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
The patterns are remarkably similar for each of the past 10 seasons
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
In games this season where a team was stronger offensively and defensively than its opponent, that team won 75% of the time Where there was a split, the stronger offensive team won 52% of the time
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
On Saturday, Brisbane became the winning Grand Finalist with the largest gap between its own and its opponent's defensive rating going into the game
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
AFLW Ratings
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Obviously debatable, but here's one way of defining a team of the decade
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
WoSHBODS' R7 Results www.matterofstats.com/aflw-1/2023/9/3/aflw-2026-round-7-results-a-little-healing
matterofstats.com
AFLW 2026- Round 7 Results - A Little Healing — Matter of Stats
WoSHBODS tipped 7 from 9 winners this week, as did the bookmakers. Its Margin MAE was 17.9 points per game, compared to 18 and 17.9 for the two bookmakers, and its Total MAE was 21.9 points per game,...
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
V/AFL end of season history (now with unified GWS)
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Gotta love it when your energy provider’s app, which lists outages and restoration estimates, goes down 15 minutes after a power outage
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Well now you've gone and made the phone an accomplice after the fact, you monster
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
MoSHBODS' final results for the men's season www.matterofstats.com/mafl-wagers-and-tips/round-29-results-cant-complain
matterofstats.com
2026 - Round 29 Results - Can't Complain — Matter of Stats
The contrarian Head-to-Head Tipsters - the MoS twins, Bookie Knows Best and Consult the Ladder - were ultimately unsuccessful this week, but only after the Lions staged an astonishing comeback after m...
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
MoSHBODS' 3QT estimates
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
MoSHBODS' in-running estimates at HT
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
MoSHBODS' in-running probability at QT
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Reposted by Tony Corke
Gemma @glbastiani.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
This is the first time in its #AFLW history that Geelong has won six consecutive games.
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Josiah Mortimer @josiahmortimer.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Here's Rupert Lowe MP's payments from X Corp over the past year. This man is making serious cash from Musk's platform. Payments surged over the summer, during UK 'unrest', and when Musk was frantically re-sharing Lowe's posts... Bleak, lucrative work if you can get it.
Line chart plotting 21 payments from X Corp to Rupert Lowe MP, as declared in the Register of Members' Financial Interests. The x-axis runs from 3 September 2025 to 16 September 2026; the y-axis shows the value of each fortnightly payment in pounds, from zero to £12,000.

Payments run between roughly £1,100 and £2,200 through late 2025, rise gradually through spring 2026 to around £3,000–£3,800, then jump sharply to £11,724.97 on 10 June 2026 and £10,265.50 in July. From there they fall in five consecutive steps — £4,412.76, £3,126.35, £2,885.36, £2,542.04 — to £2,413.89 on 16 September 2026, a fall of 79% from the June peak.

Two things worth carrying with the graphic whichever version you use.

The July point is marked with an asterisk because the register gives its received date as 7 August 2026 while recording it as registered on 15 July. Plotted it at the likelier 7 July.
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
“When I impose a sanction it means exactly what I mean it to mean - neither more nor less” AFL HQ
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Heather Urry @heatherurry.io · 24/09/2026
holy fucking shit - see Claude Code (Opus 5.5) rip through a survey eligility test I was really proud of... It requires tracing a route through designated points on a map with server-side Javascript applying eligibility criteria. (1.5 min video)
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
While it is, I think, incontrovertible that a 1 game H&A suspension is less of a punishment than missing a GF, it sets a dangerous precedent for future PFs if you know you can do what you like in that game, still play next week, and defer the consequences to next season's H&A
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Don't Go Chasin' Preferences There's a Faction; Too Much Friction Our House Many Floors to Cross Coalition, Do you Want to Know a Secret I Wanna Hold Your Gellibrand Nowhere Mandate
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Was it a difficult birth? I have to imagine, given the name, that a caesarean was involved
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Tony Corke @matterofstats.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Brownlow's version of Titanic. We all know the outcome but it's taking forever to get there
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c3rmen @c3rmen.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Losing my mind while doing some research for my creature design lecture that the closest relative to the maned wolf is the bush dog. Like there has gotta be a fable where the maned wolf took all the leggie from its cousin
Maned wolfBush dog
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