iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

Andoni Iraola is the new Head Coach of Liverpool Football Club. This is how he elevated his prior teams before. This doesn't mean his coaching is going to scale up to one of the best teams in the world, but it shows that he has consistently improved his teams. Source: ClubElo

032

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Congratulations to Spain for winning the FIFA World Cup in 2026. The best team won the final that was lopsided tactically, but not on the scoreboard. Best team during in-possession phases, when pressing and in overall defending too. What an 18-year period. Source: Eloratings.net

000

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

In the FIFA World Cup final, the European champion will play against the title-holders for the first time. Spain has better numbers in almost every category, deserved favorites. Argentina has Messi, quality, mental toughness and a never say die attitude. Source: @fotmob.com

000

Reposted by Mátrai Márk

Mark O'Sullivan PhD @markstkhlm.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

We did a Book chapter earlier this year with Argentinian national team coach/analyst Matias Manna - reframing how football analyses can be understood and applied. A shift from a conventional detached observer toward a “Linking Coach” a relational facilitator of shared understanding within the team.

112

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Argentina beat England in a memorable semi-final at the World Cup. Messi was using his passing and dribbling to cause damage. England's awful approach to keep their lead must be a huge lesson for coaches (42% low block rate). 1/2

100

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

Spain has qualified for the final at the World Cup. Best defence in the tournament, allowed 2 successful crosses to France. Overall, allowing 0.35 xG/match and 5.5% of average chance quality is amazing. Interesting difference in Movement to Recieve Types. Source: FIFA

000

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

Julián Álvarez has finally arrived at the World Cup yesterday vs Switzerland. Argentina desperately needs someone take the pressure off of Messi and Álvarez might be that player as we enter the final stages of the tournament. In 2022, he performed much better. Source: @fotmob.com

000

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

Spain advanced to the semi-finals at the World Cup. A key part of their success is their defending with the ball. Their defence has been the best in the tournament and they use ball possession to limit the opponents shots too, conceding only one goal so far. Source: @fotmob.com

000

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

Morocco can be really proud of themselves for their result at the World Cup and their rise in recent years in general. Quarter-Finals this year, 4th place in 2022 after not making the round of 16 since 1986. Source: Eloratings.net

000

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Quick snapshot of the remaining teams at the FIFA World Cup 2026 with 5 visualisations. - France (best attack), Spain (best defence) - Erling Haaland - Belgium shoots a lot (but from low probability areas) - France is the most clinical - Spain's press is the best Source: Opta

011

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

Cristiano Ronaldo finished his last World Cup. His usage rate was only high because of the very high number of shots he took, which means his by far biggest contribution was his shooting, not much else. His on-pitch impact had been consistently decreasing since the 2022 WC.

000

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

At the World Cup Messi, Ronaldo, Mbappé and Haaland are all scoring goals. Goal trajectory line chart throughout their careers. Mbappé and Haaland are ahead of Messi and Ronaldo at similar ages, started better, but longevity can make the difference between them. Source: Fbref and Transfermarkt

000

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 05/07/2026

Today's slate of matches at the World Cup is my favorite so far. Brazil will play against Norway, Vinícius Jr vs Haaland. Mexico is going to host England at the Estadio Azteca. A legendary place, where Pelé and Maradona was crowned, altitude, under the lights. Can't wait. Source: Opta

010

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

The best attackers, when it comes to Goals, xG (chance quality), xGOT (shooting quality) at the World Cup before the Round of 16. On the second vis, the 4 distinctions can be named like this: - „Good and unlucky” - „Bad and unlucky” - „Good and lucky” - „Bad and lucky” Source: @fotmob.com

000

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

Not been posting here lately, so this @FIFAWorldCup thread contains all my work published in other places. 🧵Ayoubb Bouaddi, Mexico and Elliot Anderson Source: FIFA

110

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé continued where they left off four years ago in the final. Two all-time great players, both of them perform amazingly well in all of their World Cups historically. As usual, Messi is at the top-right end of the visualisations. Mbappé might overtake him as a scorer.

000

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Saudi Arabia were able to eke out a draw against Uruguay, which makes Spain and Cape Verde delighted. Game state also dictated Uruguay's dominance that the numbers show, but the 0.44 xG difference is just not enough of a gap to call the draw lucky/unlucky. Source: FIFA

000

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

Frenkie de Jong is one of the best tempo-setting midfielders in the world. His line-breaking passing, carrying, ball circulating, and tempo shifting qualities are essential for The Netherlands' attacking game. The treemap shows the number of times his teammates received his passes. Source: FIFA

011

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

Brazil's drop-off from an ELO Rating persepctive has been significant for a while now. The World Cup has just started, so they have an opportunity to reverse this trendline, but the game vs Morocco wasn't a dominant performance. I'm yearning for Futebol Arte.. Source: Eloclub

000

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

🇰🇷 was impressive in-possession, difference seen in the long-ball rate. It centralised its gameplan on solutions on the ball in open-play vs 🇨🇿 🇺🇸 high-press and the mid-press rates were twice as high, this forced 🇵🇾 into a mid-block or a low-block. Source: FIFA

010

Reposted by Mátrai Márk

Steph Noh @stephnoh.bsky.social · 14/06/2026

This got lost to the algorithm last night. I think it's one of the best things I wrote on the year. On the pain, joy, and shared tears of 53 years of waiting: www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/new-y...

sportingnews.com

The 53-Year Exorcism: How Jalen Brunson and the Knicks finally healed decades of New York heartbreak | Sporting News

Reflections on the pain and joy of being a Knicks fan in the moments before and after their 2026 NBA Championship.

1274

Reposted by Mátrai Márk

brian mcdonnell @sixtwofourtwo.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

Opta has logged every World Cup game since 1966 . . . now we can savour the most famous moments in football history the way they were meant to be experienced . . . as a bunch of rows in a spreadsheet (via @markcarey93.bsky.social for @theathleticfc.bsky.social) www.nytimes.com/athletic/727...

nytimes.com

From long balls to short kings: The evolution of World Cup football from 1966 to now

143

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Yan Diomandé (RB Leipzig) will be one of the most sought-after players on the transfer market this summer. I compared his league season with Kylian Mbappé's breakout season, adjusting for league-quality. Source: Understat Source for VAEP analysis: thecomeonman.github.io

000

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

Champions League QF matchups. Liverpool are the best so far, they have the best numbers. Bayern should be considered the best by their numbers and taking into account their opponents. Below 👇opponent quality, which impacts these numbers due to low sample size. @optaanalyst.optajoe.com

100

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

A tavalyi népszerű adás után idén is beszéltem a Liverpool lehetséges nyári átigazolásairól a PoolBarátok podcastben. / After last year's popular episode, I talked about Liverpool's potential summer transfer targets again for the PoolBarátok podcast. HU open.spotify.com/episode/3R0O...

open.spotify.com

Bevásárlólista 2.0 9x28

010

Reposted by Mátrai Márk

futi @futi.live · 24/02/2026

Expected goals are everywhere now, but there's so much more we can do with them. Here's how futi turns basic xG into team-level metrics including deserved results, projected points and projected finish.

futiapp.substack.com

How to expect more from xG

Getting from shot probabilities to team performance metrics

1398

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 19/02/2026

A legújabb PoolBarátokban beszéltem a szezon eddigi alakulásáról, illetve annak hátralévő részéről. Köszönöm a lehetőséget! / In the latest PoolBarátok podcast, I talked about the season so far and about the rest of the season. Thank you for having me! (HU) open.spotify.com/episode/53p8...

open.spotify.com

Állapotfelmérő 9x25

000

Reposted by Mátrai Márk

John Horn @hornjohnhorn.bsky.social · 18/02/2026

Tension Tension drives growth and it also fuels frustration. While tension often gets a bad rap, the right kind of tension is hugely beneficial for building new skills, expanding trust, and collective problem solving. If we believe that our best relationships in work and life generate friction,…

thepotentiality.com

Tension

Tension drives growth and it also fuels frustration. While tension often gets a bad rap, the right kind of tension is hugely beneficial for building new skills, expanding trust, and collective problem solving. If we believe that our best relationships in work and life generate friction, then it makes sense that tension isn’t just good, it’s also necessary for human development.

011

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

Drake Maye should have been the NFL MVP in 2025 based on the advanced stats. There were some stats in Stafford's favour, but overall, Maye should've been the winner, even after accounting for schedule difficulty, which was everybody favourite stick to beat Maye with.

100

Reposted by Mátrai Márk

Bill Barnwell @billbarnwell.com · 05/01/2026

New column: My awards for the 2025 season, including why Drake Maye is my pick for MVP over Matthew Stafford and the major flaw in the schedule argument: measure the *pass defenses* they faced and their quality of opposition was mostly the same www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

Maye's schedule has to play a starring role in the debate if you're arguing for Stafford. And while I lean toward Maye, there's no denying that the Patriots have played a breezy slate in 2025. As I mentioned last month, per Pro-Football-Reference.com's Simple Rating System, the Patriots were in line to play one of the 10 easiest schedules in NFL history since the merger. Obviously, that's going to help make life much easier for Maye.

The context missing from the schedule argument, though, is that overall team strength isn't the same thing as the strength of the opposing pass defense. As an example, Stafford played two games against the 49ers, who are a good team on the whole but field one of the worst pass defenses in the league. And Maye went up against the Browns; Cleveland has a horrible offense, but its Myles Garrett-led defense is excellent against the pass.

Using each team's finish in pass defense EPA per play from NFL Next Gen Stats, Maye's average opponent ranked 20th against the pass this season. Stafford's average opponent was 17th. Do the same test with QBR instead of pass defense EPA, and their schedules were virtually identical; Maye's average opponent ranked 18.6 out of 32 defenses, while Stafford's average pass defense was at 18.4. While these two quarterbacks faced massively different opposition on the whole, that doesn't hold true for the pass defenses.

Last week, I talked about Maye and Stafford against common opponents, but I'm going to take that one step further. Maye outperforming Stafford against the same opposition tells part of the story, but it leaves out a piece of the equation. If everyone got to play Maye's slate this season, would other quarterbacks also be producing career seasons?

Overwhelmingly, the answer to that question is no. Maye posted a 77.0 QBR against his schedule this season. Stafford posted a 57.7 QBR in six games against common opponents, losing to the Falcons and Panthers. The rest of the league posted a 58.5 QBR against those same teams on the whole throughout the season. The only quarterback who threw more than 100 passes against those teams and posted a better QBR than Maye is Dak Prescott, who was 0.8 points higher than Maye over a much smaller sample.

If Maye was really a product of his schedule, his performance would be much more in line with what average quarterbacks did against the same opponents in 2025. Instead, not only have we found that Maye's schedule of pass opponents wasn't much easier than Stafford's slate, we've also found that Maye grossly outplayed Stafford and the rest of the NFL against the same opponents.

17899

Reposted by Mátrai Márk

mark thompson @markposts.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

There are far too many interesting football analytics papers that I want to read. From the 1980s. And from before that, if they were actually accessible. This is the blog I've rewritten the most, and is still so short of doing the subject justice. www.getgoalsideanalytics.com/analytics-hi...

getgoalsideanalytics.com

'Analytics history' - there is so much to write about and share

The history of football analytics often focuses on expected goals and the 21st century, but decade after decade through the 20th century brought insight

4167

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 20/11/2025

Nikola Jokić has started the 2025-2026 NBA season in historic fashion. Currently at 127%, his true shooting from all over the floor is hitting unprecedented heights. An all-time great, box office player. His league-adjusted true shooting % from season-to-season per @basketball-reference.com

000

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 08/10/2025

Liverpool's squad outlook by looking at peak ages for each position. There will be some turnover in the next 2 years (Alisson, Salah, possibly Van Dijk from the starting XI), but the age profile looks very healthy. Exciting times for Liverpool FC. Thank you for the help, Dobi Gergő!

000

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 01/09/2025

Liverpool confirms the signing of Alexander Isak on #DeadlineDay He is great finisher, shooter, but is also a very good facilitator, which will further enhance Liverpool's attacking prowess. He can scale up massively in this team, which has the potential to be incredible.

020

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 16/08/2025

Szezonértékelő a PoolBarátokban, valamint a jövőbe révedés. Köszönöm a lehetőséget! / Season review podcast on PoolBarátok, where we also talked about the new iteration of Liverpool. Thank you for the opportunity! (HU) open.spotify.com/episode/2ZA2...

open.spotify.com

Szezonfelvezető 9x05

PoolBarátok Podcast · Episode

010

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 07/07/2025

Martín Zubimendi has signed for Arsenal. The North London club has signed a player, who is a metronome midfielder, whose all-round game will help Mikel Arteta's side in multiple phases of the game. Visualisations are by @xfbsays.bsky.social Thread🧵

110

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 20/06/2025

Florian Wirtz can become the most impactful signing of this transfer window. The 22-year-old completed his transfer from Bayer 04 Leverkusen in a club-record deal for Liverpool FC. Thread by @xfbsays.bsky.social

124

Reposted by Mátrai Márk

The Strickland @handle.invalid · 18/06/2025

Tom Thibodeau broke Leon Rose’s rules. @prezidente.bsky.social’s latest: a top-down breakdown of why Tom Thibodeau’s exit wasn’t a spur-of-the-moment reflex, rather a culmination of Thibs’ slow departure from Leon’s vision: www.thestrick.land/strick/the-k...

67525

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 11/06/2025

open.spotify.com

Szezonértékelő; új szelek fújnak 8x31

PoolBarátok Podcast · Episode

000

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 03/06/2025

@hemmenkees.bsky.social ‬ and @amoniz.bsky.social what do you mean by Liverpool not being dominant this season? Liverpool were consistently above +1.00 xGD/90 thorughout the season, they spent only 12.7% of minutes trailing, 38.2% leading. Thread is by @dankennett.co.uk bsky.app/profile/dank...

221

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 03/06/2025

Köszönöm a lehetőséget a Sportalnak, hogy Bajnokok Ligája-mérkőzésekről beszélhettem az utóbbi hónapokban a Bajnokok Világában! Thankful for Sportal for the invitation during the latter stages of the Champions League as a data analyst for @xfbsays.bsky.social www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftuo...

youtube.com

Bajnokok Világa – Kiütéses PSG-siker, Doué a franciák új sztárja

YouTube video by Sportal HU

010

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 06/05/2025

Liverpool FC have won the league title for a record-equalling 20th time. Arne Slot's team has been by far the best team in the league and the metrics also underline that, with team averaging 2.41 points/game at the moment of clinching the title. Mega-thread by @xfbsays.bsky.social 🧵

110

Reposted by Mátrai Márk

Ollie Connolly @ollieconnolly.bsky.social · 14/04/2025

@joshqueipo.bsky.social has a great piece up today on how evaluators outside the NFL can bring their big boards more in line with how those inside the building put their boards together www.readoptional.com/p/a-new-way-...

readoptional.com

A new way of building a draft big board

Josh Queipo combs through the data to build a more 'league-accurate' draft board

172

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 26/03/2025

A PoolBarátokban való második fellépésemen lehetséges nyári igazolásokról volt szó. Fontos nyár lesz ez a klub számára. Néhány célpont lent👇/ On my second appearance on PoolBarátok podcast, I've talked about potential signings. A few targets below👇 HU open.spotify.com/episode/0JfF...

open.spotify.com

Bevásárlólista 8x26

PoolBarátok Podcast · Episode

110

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 07/02/2025

Rayan Cherki is one of my favorite players to watch currently. His game brings me back the joy I've played with when I was younger. He has been linked with many top clubs, so it'll be interesting to see, which club signs him in the summer. 🧵by me and @xfbsays.bsky.social

110

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 05/02/2025

Köszönöm a lehetőséget a Pool Barátoknak! Még az NBA történetének legmegdöbbentőbb cseréje is szóba került (Hello Luka!) / Thank you for the opportunity, Pool Barátok! Couldn't resist to talk about the most shocking transaction in sports in my lifetime (Živjo Luka!)

000

Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 03/02/2025

Manchester City has been struggling this season, mainly due to their baaad negative transitions and their overall out of possession game, but they had struggles in attack too. Our visualizations shed some light on their issues. Thread by @xfbsays.bsky.social

100