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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

Andoni Iraola is the new Head Coach of Liverpool Football Club. This is how he elevated his prior teams before. This doesn't mean his coaching is going to scale up to one of the best teams in the world, but it shows that he has consistently improved his teams. Source: ClubElo

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Congratulations to Spain for winning the FIFA World Cup in 2026. The best team won the final that was lopsided tactically, but not on the scoreboard. Best team during in-possession phases, when pressing and in overall defending too. What an 18-year period. Source: Eloratings.net

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

In the FIFA World Cup final, the European champion will play against the title-holders for the first time. Spain has better numbers in almost every category, deserved favorites. Argentina has Messi, quality, mental toughness and a never say die attitude. Source: @fotmob.com

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Mark O'Sullivan PhD @markstkhlm.bsky.social · 18/07/2026

We did a Book chapter earlier this year with Argentinian national team coach/analyst Matias Manna - reframing how football analyses can be understood and applied. A shift from a conventional detached observer toward a “Linking Coach” a relational facilitator of shared understanding within the team.

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

In football, there is still a lot of inefficiency, due to the fear of losing, which overrides the drive to win. Until teams do not start attaching win probability models to certain game states and tactical approaches, this inefficiency will last. 2/2 Source: FIFA and @fotmob.com

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Argentina beat England in a memorable semi-final at the World Cup. Messi was using his passing and dribbling to cause damage. England's awful approach to keep their lead must be a huge lesson for coaches (42% low block rate). 1/2

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

Spain has qualified for the final at the World Cup. Best defence in the tournament, allowed 2 successful crosses to France. Overall, allowing 0.35 xG/match and 5.5% of average chance quality is amazing. Interesting difference in Movement to Recieve Types. Source: FIFA

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 12/07/2026

Julián Álvarez has finally arrived at the World Cup yesterday vs Switzerland. Argentina desperately needs someone take the pressure off of Messi and Álvarez might be that player as we enter the final stages of the tournament. In 2022, he performed much better. Source: @fotmob.com

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

Spain advanced to the semi-finals at the World Cup. A key part of their success is their defending with the ball. Their defence has been the best in the tournament and they use ball possession to limit the opponents shots too, conceding only one goal so far. Source: @fotmob.com

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

Morocco can be really proud of themselves for their result at the World Cup and their rise in recent years in general. Quarter-Finals this year, 4th place in 2022 after not making the round of 16 since 1986. Source: Eloratings.net

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Quick snapshot of the remaining teams at the FIFA World Cup 2026 with 5 visualisations. - France (best attack), Spain (best defence) - Erling Haaland - Belgium shoots a lot (but from low probability areas) - France is the most clinical - Spain's press is the best Source: Opta

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

Cristiano Ronaldo finished his last World Cup. His usage rate was only high because of the very high number of shots he took, which means his by far biggest contribution was his shooting, not much else. His on-pitch impact had been consistently decreasing since the 2022 WC.

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 06/07/2026

At the World Cup Messi, Ronaldo, Mbappé and Haaland are all scoring goals. Goal trajectory line chart throughout their careers. Mbappé and Haaland are ahead of Messi and Ronaldo at similar ages, started better, but longevity can make the difference between them. Source: Fbref and Transfermarkt

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 05/07/2026

Today's slate of matches at the World Cup is my favorite so far. Brazil will play against Norway, Vinícius Jr vs Haaland. Mexico is going to host England at the Estadio Azteca. A legendary place, where Pelé and Maradona was crowned, altitude, under the lights. Can't wait. Source: Opta

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

The best attackers, when it comes to Goals, xG (chance quality), xGOT (shooting quality) at the World Cup before the Round of 16. On the second vis, the 4 distinctions can be named like this: - „Good and unlucky” - „Bad and unlucky” - „Good and lucky” - „Bad and lucky” Source: @fotmob.com

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

Rodri and Pedri were key components of Spain's dominant performance against Austria. The tree maps show, which players received passes from each of them and how many times.Rodri played deeper, so Pedri's connections were more attack-minded players usually. Source: FIFA

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

England had to suffer against Congo DR in the Round of 32 to get through. European teams with more positional ideas are reluctant to build attack centrally in case of a possession loss that can lead to dangerous counter-attacks. Source: FIFA

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

France had the best team performance in a single game in the entire tournament so far vs Sweden. Ball distribution in the final third shows their dominance. The 10.78% average chance quality signals dangerous shooting opportunities being created consistently. Source: FIFA

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

The tactical landscape has changed such that non-european teams with lots of their players playing in European clubs compete better than ever before. The fact that Morocco was able to beat The Netherlands deservedly is another case in point. Source: FIFA

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

Brazil has been one of the best attacking teams in the tournament so far, Japan had been one of the best defending teams. However, Japan's open-play football had been also good to see in a very tough group. Japan played in one of the toughest groups. Source: FIFA

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

After the group stages. Obviously the sample is tiny, especially with taking out the numbers from the matches against the 4th-placed teams. Non-Penalty xG/90 and Non-Penalty xG allowed/90 (dashed line is the median). Source: FIFA

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

Uruguay is one of the biggest disappointments of the tournament. An average chance quality of 8% is extremely low. 41% of their shots came from outside the box. Yikes. Source: FIFA

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

Japan's performance during the group stage has been impressive considering the quality of the opponents. Their defensive performances deserve a lot of credit. They were great against every team, but they improved from match-by-match in forced turnovers. Source: FIFA

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

After a bad opening game against Morocco, Brazil improved against Haiti and Scotland, albeit not against two strong teams. Supressing the opponents to a 5% average chance quality is very good. Neymar played his first game, he combined with Vinícius 5 times Source: FIFA

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

England suffered a setback against Ghana. Against Ghana's low block, they couldn't create enough threatening situations. Trent Alexander-Arnold, Adam Wharton, Cole Palmer all would have come in handy in a match like this, but also on others. Source: FIFA

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

Germany deserved the three points vs Ivory Coast. Spain absolutely dominated Saudi Arabia, they had some positive regression to the mean after scoring 0 goals from 2.03 xG against Cape Verde. the Lionel Messi-show continues in his last World Cup. Source: Sports Data Campus

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 04/07/2026

Not been posting here lately, so this @FIFAWorldCup thread contains all my work published in other places. 🧵Ayoubb Bouaddi, Mexico and Elliot Anderson Source: FIFA

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé continued where they left off four years ago in the final. Two all-time great players, both of them perform amazingly well in all of their World Cups historically. As usual, Messi is at the top-right end of the visualisations. Mbappé might overtake him as a scorer.

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Saudi Arabia were able to eke out a draw against Uruguay, which makes Spain and Cape Verde delighted. Game state also dictated Uruguay's dominance that the numbers show, but the 0.44 xG difference is just not enough of a gap to call the draw lucky/unlucky. Source: FIFA

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

Frenkie de Jong is one of the best tempo-setting midfielders in the world. His line-breaking passing, carrying, ball circulating, and tempo shifting qualities are essential for The Netherlands' attacking game. The treemap shows the number of times his teammates received his passes. Source: FIFA

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

Brazil's drop-off from an ELO Rating persepctive has been significant for a while now. The World Cup has just started, so they have an opportunity to reverse this trendline, but the game vs Morocco wasn't a dominant performance. I'm yearning for Futebol Arte.. Source: Eloclub

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

🇰🇷 was impressive in-possession, difference seen in the long-ball rate. It centralised its gameplan on solutions on the ball in open-play vs 🇨🇿 🇺🇸 high-press and the mid-press rates were twice as high, this forced 🇵🇾 into a mid-block or a low-block. Source: FIFA

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Steph Noh @stephnoh.bsky.social · 14/06/2026

This got lost to the algorithm last night. I think it's one of the best things I wrote on the year. On the pain, joy, and shared tears of 53 years of waiting: www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/new-y...

sportingnews.com

The 53-Year Exorcism: How Jalen Brunson and the Knicks finally healed decades of New York heartbreak | Sporting News

Reflections on the pain and joy of being a Knicks fan in the moments before and after their 2026 NBA Championship.

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brian mcdonnell @sixtwofourtwo.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

Opta has logged every World Cup game since 1966 . . . now we can savour the most famous moments in football history the way they were meant to be experienced . . . as a bunch of rows in a spreadsheet (via @markcarey93.bsky.social for @theathleticfc.bsky.social) www.nytimes.com/athletic/727...

nytimes.com

From long balls to short kings: The evolution of World Cup football from 1966 to now

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Yan Diomandé (RB Leipzig) will be one of the most sought-after players on the transfer market this summer. I compared his league season with Kylian Mbappé's breakout season, adjusting for league-quality. Source: Understat Source for VAEP analysis: thecomeonman.github.io

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

PSG and Bayern had the toughest opponent fixture list based on the average Elo rating of the opponents in the tournament. English teams can't play against each other in the league phase, which helps them a lot. This mitigation needs to be done. Source: Club Elo

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

Champions League QF matchups. Liverpool are the best so far, they have the best numbers. Bayern should be considered the best by their numbers and taking into account their opponents. Below 👇opponent quality, which impacts these numbers due to low sample size. @optaanalyst.optajoe.com

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 05/04/2026

Anfield Index, especially the Under Pressure podcast with an award-winning journalist, sports scientist and a professor from a university.

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

A tavalyi népszerű adás után idén is beszéltem a Liverpool lehetséges nyári átigazolásairól a PoolBarátok podcastben. / After last year's popular episode, I talked about Liverpool's potential summer transfer targets again for the PoolBarátok podcast. HU open.spotify.com/episode/3R0O...

open.spotify.com

Bevásárlólista 2.0 9x28

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futi @futi.live · 24/02/2026

Expected goals are everywhere now, but there's so much more we can do with them. Here's how futi turns basic xG into team-level metrics including deserved results, projected points and projected finish.

futiapp.substack.com

How to expect more from xG

Getting from shot probabilities to team performance metrics

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 19/02/2026

A legújabb PoolBarátokban beszéltem a szezon eddigi alakulásáról, illetve annak hátralévő részéről. Köszönöm a lehetőséget! / In the latest PoolBarátok podcast, I talked about the season so far and about the rest of the season. Thank you for having me! (HU) open.spotify.com/episode/53p8...

open.spotify.com

Állapotfelmérő 9x25

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John Horn @hornjohnhorn.bsky.social · 18/02/2026

Tension Tension drives growth and it also fuels frustration. While tension often gets a bad rap, the right kind of tension is hugely beneficial for building new skills, expanding trust, and collective problem solving. If we believe that our best relationships in work and life generate friction,…

thepotentiality.com

Tension

Tension drives growth and it also fuels frustration. While tension often gets a bad rap, the right kind of tension is hugely beneficial for building new skills, expanding trust, and collective problem solving. If we believe that our best relationships in work and life generate friction, then it makes sense that tension isn’t just good, it’s also necessary for human development.

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 16/02/2026

If I could listen to only one song during my entire life, this would be it.

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

Thank you for @profootballfocus.bsky.social @pro-football-reference.com and @rbsdm.com for the stats! It is amazing that the NFL has free public data available for complete causals to play with and to improve themselves.

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

MLB voters are far ahead of NFL voters. Metrics such as WAR, or LEBRON by BBall-Index in the NBA, can eradicate these biases and account for more things than people can. The NFL needs to come up with their own WAR, so prestigious awards get to the rightful winners.

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

As we saw it with the Hall of Fame's shameful decision, voter education is at a low point in the NFL. The NFL has to educate voters, to not use old stats anymore (TD-INT ratio, common opponents, picking stats by a biased friend aka Dan Orlovsky). Biases should be fought consciously by voters.

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Mátrai Márk @matraimark.bsky.social · 06/02/2026

Drake Maye should have been the NFL MVP in 2025 based on the advanced stats. There were some stats in Stafford's favour, but overall, Maye should've been the winner, even after accounting for schedule difficulty, which was everybody favourite stick to beat Maye with.

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Bill Barnwell @billbarnwell.com · 05/01/2026

New column: My awards for the 2025 season, including why Drake Maye is my pick for MVP over Matthew Stafford and the major flaw in the schedule argument: measure the *pass defenses* they faced and their quality of opposition was mostly the same www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/...

Maye's schedule has to play a starring role in the debate if you're arguing for Stafford. And while I lean toward Maye, there's no denying that the Patriots have played a breezy slate in 2025. As I mentioned last month, per Pro-Football-Reference.com's Simple Rating System, the Patriots were in line to play one of the 10 easiest schedules in NFL history since the merger. Obviously, that's going to help make life much easier for Maye.

The context missing from the schedule argument, though, is that overall team strength isn't the same thing as the strength of the opposing pass defense. As an example, Stafford played two games against the 49ers, who are a good team on the whole but field one of the worst pass defenses in the league. And Maye went up against the Browns; Cleveland has a horrible offense, but its Myles Garrett-led defense is excellent against the pass.

Using each team's finish in pass defense EPA per play from NFL Next Gen Stats, Maye's average opponent ranked 20th against the pass this season. Stafford's average opponent was 17th. Do the same test with QBR instead of pass defense EPA, and their schedules were virtually identical; Maye's average opponent ranked 18.6 out of 32 defenses, while Stafford's average pass defense was at 18.4. While these two quarterbacks faced massively different opposition on the whole, that doesn't hold true for the pass defenses.

Last week, I talked about Maye and Stafford against common opponents, but I'm going to take that one step further. Maye outperforming Stafford against the same opposition tells part of the story, but it leaves out a piece of the equation. If everyone got to play Maye's slate this season, would other quarterbacks also be producing career seasons?

Overwhelmingly, the answer to that question is no. Maye posted a 77.0 QBR against his schedule this season. Stafford posted a 57.7 QBR in six games against common opponents, losing to the Falcons and Panthers. The rest of the league posted a 58.5 QBR against those same teams on the whole throughout the season. The only quarterback who threw more than 100 passes against those teams and posted a better QBR than Maye is Dak Prescott, who was 0.8 points higher than Maye over a much smaller sample.

If Maye was really a product of his schedule, his performance would be much more in line with what average quarterbacks did against the same opponents in 2025. Instead, not only have we found that Maye's schedule of pass opponents wasn't much easier than Stafford's slate, we've also found that Maye grossly outplayed Stafford and the rest of the NFL against the same opponents.

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