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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social shows how the HM Treasury Debt Management Office is borrowing for far shorter periods. So we're not paying 6% on 30-year gilts, but we are more dependent on the 'kindness of strangers' by refinancing more often. Read more: icaew.com/insights/vie...

ICAEW chart of the week: borrowing maturity.

UK fixed-rate gilt auctions Jan 2020 to Sep 2026.

Column chart.

Weighted average maturity at issue (years) by year: 32 (2000), 22, 14, 15, 16 (2004), 21, 22, 20, 13 (2008), 11, 11, 12, 12, 12, 13 (2014), 14, 14, 13, 14, 12, 12 (2020), 15, 10, 10, 10 (2024), 8, 7 (2026).

Line chart.

Weighted average yield at issue: 4.4% (2000), 4.8%, 5.0%, 4.4%, 4.8% (2004), 4.4%, 4.3%, 4.8%, 4.2% (2008), 3.3%, 3.2%, 2.7%, 1.8%, 2.2%, 2.5% (2014), 1.9%, 1.3%, 1.1%, 1.4%, 0.9%, 0.3% (2020), 0.7%, 2.8%, 4.3%, 4.2% (2024), 4.4%, 4.5%.

2 Oct 2026. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA.
Sources: UK Debt Management Office, Outright gilt auctions; ICAEW calculations.
Excludes tenders and syndications.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on productivity growth this week and the difference between the ONS's current approach to measuring output per worker and output per hour and its new component methodology. Read more: www.icaew.com/insights/vie...

ICAEW chart of the week: UK productivity remeasured.

A column chart split into two halves showing average annual increase in output per worker and per hour.

Left side: Output per worker.

1997-2007: 1.8% (current approach), 1.7% (component approach).
2009-2019: 0.9%, 1.0%.
2021-2024: 1.0%, 0.8%.

Right-hand side: Output per hour.

1997-2007: 2.1% (current approach), 2.0% (component approach).
2009-2019: 0.7%, 1.3%.
2021-2024: -0.1%, -0.7%.

25 Sep 2026. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA.
Source: ONS, Component approach to measuring labour productivity, UK: 1997-2024.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on the 6.2m people who work in the public sector in the UK, 18% of the total workforce. One third work for the NHS, while 9% work for the Civil Service. Read more: www.icaew.com/insights/vie...

ICAEW chart of the week: public sector workforce.

A treemap or area chart breaking down public sector headcount in June 2026 of 6.207m.

NHS: 2.068m.
Education: 1.664m.
Civil Service: 0.557m.
Police: 0.280m.
Armed forces: 0.149m.
Other public administration: 0.713m.
Other health and social work: 0.201m.
Public corporations: 0.160m.
Other public sector: 0.415m.

18 Sep 2026. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA.
Source: ONS, Public sector employment, UK: June 2026.
Full-time equivalents: 5.258m.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social shows how #coreinflation and food, alcohol & tobacco, and energy price rises of 2.6%, 1.7%, 2.1% and 5.7% made up #cpi of 2.6% having fallen from 3.6% over the past year. Read more: www.icaew.com/insights/vie...

ICAEW chart of the week: inflation.

A step chart showing the components of consumer price inflation (CPI) in the 12 months to Jun 2026 together with five line charts below showing how each component has changed over the past year.

Core inflation: +2.6% (a 2.0% step) with the annual rate reducing from +3.7% a year ago to +2.6% in the year to Jun 2026.

Food prices: +1.7% (a 0.2% step), from +4.6% down to +1.7% over the past year.

Alcohol & tobacco: +2.1% (a 0.1% step), falling from +6.4% to +2.1% over the past year.

Energy prices: +5.7% (a 0.3% step), from -0.7% a year ago, rising then falling back to -0.1% (not labelled) increasing to 7.4% (not labelled) falling to +5.7% in the year to Jun 2026.

CPI all items: +2.6% (the total of the 2.0%, 0.2%, 0.1% and 0.3% steps), falling from +3.6% a year ago to +2.6%.

24 Jul 2026. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA.
Source: ONS, 'Consumer price inflation, Jun 2026'.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social welcomes in our new First Lord of the Treasury @andyburnham.bsky.social with two charts on the age profile of the population, one of the main reasons for the OBR projection that public sector net debt could reach 300% of GDP (or more) in 50 years' time.

ICAEW chart of the week: Tax and spending by age and population change over the next 50 years by age.

Main chart - a five column chart showing per capita tax and spending excluding interest by age group (0-19, 20-39, 40-59, 60-79 and 80+) with negative contributions for the first, fourth and fifth columns and positive contributions for the second and third columns. Spending is shown in three categories: education, health and welfare, and other spending.

The second chart contains five sub-charts showing the change in population, with falls in the 0-19 and 20-39 age groups, a rise then fall back in the 40-59 age group. There is a rise in the 60-79 age group and then an extremely steep rise in the 80+ age group.

Numbers are in the linked article on the ICAEW website.

17 Jul 2026. Charts by Martin Wheatcroft FCA.

Sources: OBR, Fiscal risks and sustainability Jul 2026; ONS, Principal population projections; ICAEW calculations.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 03/07/2026

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is a triple celebration: Canada Day marking 159 years as a self-governing nation, a historic men's World Cup win, and the (relatively) healthy state of Canada's federal government finances. Read more: www.icaew.com/insights/vie...

ICAEW chart of the week: Canada's federal finances.

A three column chart showing federal government revenue, expenditure and budgetary balance for 2025/26.

Revenue C$500bn = personal income tax C$241bn + corporate income tax C$102bn + Goods and Services Tax C$51bn + other taxes and revenues C$106bn.

Expenditure (C$555bn) = public debt charges (C$54bn) + transfers to persons (C$146bn) + transfers to provinces and territories (C$111bn) + direct programmes (C$231bn) + actuarial loss (C$13bn).

Budgetary balances (C$55bn) = accounting deficit (C42bn) + actuarial loss (C$13bn).

3 Jul 2026. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA.
Source: Ministry of Finance/Ministère des Finances Canada, Fiscal Monitor Mar 2026 (unaudited).

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

My latest #chartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on the current plan to deliver a current budget surplus in the public finances that the incoming prime minister and chancellor (whoever they be) will inherit from their predecessors. Read more: www.icaew.com/insights/vie...

ICAEW chart of the week: the fiscal inheritance.

A step chart showing the current plan to deliver a current budget surplus.

2024/25: (£76bn) deficit.

Change in 2025/26 and 2026/27: +£75bn more receipts and -£33bn more spending.

2026/27: (£34bn) deficit.

Change in 2027/28 and 2028/29: +£29bn more receipts and +£8bn from less spending.

2028/29: £3bn surplus.

Change in 2029/30 and 2030/31: +£22bn more receipts and +£5bn from less spending.

2030/31: £30bn surplus.

26 Jun 2026. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA.
Sources: OBR, Spring Forecast 2026; OBR; Public finances databank, May 2026; ICAEW calculations.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 12/06/2026

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on the unemployment rate of 5% and employment rate of 75% and why they don't add up to 100%. Read more: icaew.com/insights/vie...

ICAEW chart of the week: Employment and unemployment.

A four column chart with bars for the employed, the unemployed, and those who are (economically) inactive plus two calculation boxes above the two middle columns.

Column 1 - Economically active aged 16 to 64: 34.4m =32.6m employed + 1.8m unemployed.

Column 2 - Economically active aged 16 and over: 36.2m =34.4m employed + 1.8m unemployed.

Column 3 - Total population aged 16 to 64: 43.5m = 32.6m employed + 1.8m unemployed + 9.1m inactive.

Column 4 - Total population aged 16 and over: 56.6m = 34.4m employed + 1.8m unemployed + 20.4m inactive.

Box 1 above column 2 (economically active aged 16 and over): Unemployment rate 5.0% = 1.8m / 36.2m.

Box 2 above column 3 (total population aged 16 to 64): Employment rate 75.0% = 32.6m / 43.5m.

12 Jun 2026. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA.
Source: Office for National Statistics, Labour Force Survey, Jan-Mar 2026.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on the OBR's latest forecast evaluation report, showing the big differences between the March 2024 one-year forecast for the 2024/25 fiscal deficit of £87bn and the £152bn outturn. Read more: www.icaew.com/insights/vie...

ICAEW chart of the week: OBR forecast evaluation.

A step chart showing the differences between the March 2024 forecast of the fiscal deficit for the year ended 31 March 2025 and the outturn.

March 2024 forecast: £87bn.
Economic factors: -£19bn.
Debt interest: +£18bn.
Revenue overestimate: +£21bn.
Spending underestimate: +£20bn.
Policy changes: +£25bn.
= 2024/25 outturn: £152bn.

5 Jun 2026. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA.
Source: Office for Budget Responsibility, Forecast evaluation report June 2026.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on the top military spenders in 2025 per @sipri.org. Most of the blue NATO circles should grow in size to meet the new NATO commitment of 3.5% of GDP. The question is where they will find the money? Read more: www.icaew.com/insights/vie...

ICAEW chart of the week: Top 20 military spenders.

A bubble chart showing the relative amounts of military spenders.

US $954bn, China $336bn, Russia $190bn, Germany $114bn, India $92bn, the UK $89bn, Ukraine $84bn, Saudi Arabia $83bn, France $68bn, Japan $62bn, Israel $48bn, Italy $48bn, South Korea $48bn, Poland $47bn, Spain $40bn, Canada $37bn, Australia $35bn, Türkiye $30bn, the Netherlands $29bn, Algeria $25bn.

8 May 2026. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, World Military Expenditure 2025 in current US$.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on how the number of people aged 65+ is projected by the ONS to rise by 34% over the next 25 years, in contrast with a 1% rise in working age adults. This will be a major challenge for the UK’s public finances. www.icaew.com/insights/vie...

ICAEW chart of the week: more people living longer.

A step chart showing the projected increase in the UK population between 2025 and 2050.

UK principal population projection.

2025: 69.5m people = Ages 65 and over 13.4m + Ages 18-64 42.0m + Ages 0-17 14.1m.

Births - deaths: -2.7m.

Migration: +5.7m.

2050: 72.5m people = Ages 65 and over 18.0m +34% + Ages 18-64 42.6m +1% + Ages 0-17 11.9m -16%.

1 May 2026. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA.
Source: ONS, UK national population projections 2024-based. Assumes net inward migration of +230,000 per year.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 24/04/2026

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on how the overall shape of the households we live in has not really changed over the last quarter of a century. Read more: bit.ly/42vYawk

ICAEW chart of the week: Home living.

A step-chart showing 58.9m population in 2000 + 10.6m population growth (+18%) = 69.5m population in 2025.

Living in a family with children: 34.9m in 2000, 41.0m in 2025.

Living in a couple without children: 14.4m in 2000, 16.8m in 2025.

Living alone or sharing: 8.8m in 2000, 10.7m in 2025.

Living elsewhere (labels not shown): 0.8m in 2000, 1.0m in 2025.

24 Apr 2026. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA.
Sources: ONS, Families and households in the UK 2025; ONS, UK population mid-year estimate 2025.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on #internationaltrade this week, showing how a £205bn surplus on services #exports and #imports was offset by a £243bn deficit on goods - a trade deficit of £38bn, or £16bn if precious metals are excluded Read more: bit.ly/4ttJ9qk

ICAEW chart of the week: International trade.

A three-section step chart showing the components of the UK trade deficit of £38bn in 2025.

First section (on the left): Services exports in green £546bn - services imports in blue (£341bn) = a surplus in services trade in purple of £205bn.

Second section: Goods exports in green £382bn - goods imports in blue (£603bn) = a deficit on trade excluding precious metals in purple of £221bn; combined with precious metals exports in light green of £2bn - imports in light blue of £24bn = a deficit on trade in precious metals in light purple of £22bn.

Third section (on the right): Net trade deficits going below the line of £16bn on trade excluding precious metals in purple and £22bn on trade in precious metals in light purple - a total of £38bn.

10 Apr 2026. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA.
Source: ONS, UK balance of payments: 31 Mar 2026.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social shows how there is a shortfall of £115bn between receipts and spending in 2026/27; how just 10 taxes make up 80% of receipts and how 53% of public spending goes on health and welfare. Read more: bit.ly/4m2p6gt A happy new fiscal year to you all!

ICAEW chart of the week: the start of a new fiscal year.

A step chart between budgeted receipts and spending for 2026/27.

Receipts £1,304bn = Top 10 taxes £1,050bn + Other taxes £121bn + Other receipts £133bn.

Borrowing £115bn = deficit £115bn.

Spending £1,419bn = Health and welfare £749bn + Education £151bn + Public services £388bn + Interest £131bn.

2 Apr 2026. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA.
Sources: HMT, Autumn Budget 2025; OBR, Spring Forecast 2026.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social 'celebrates' the start of a new financial year on 1 April 2026 by looking at council tax rates in England. Read more: bit.ly/3PzQztE

ICAEW chart of the week: Council tax in England 2026/27.

A line chart showing council tax rates in England across 296 local billing authorities.

Average council tax per dwelling per month (national average) - a horizontal dotted purple line of £156 per month.

Average council tax per dwelling per month - a solid purple line marked with £82 for Wandsworth curving up very quickly and then fairly straight through Islington to cross the national average council tax per dwelling line to the left of Castle Point before curving up again from Stroud onwards to hit £244 for Elmbridge.

Band D council tax per month (national average) - a dotted teal line of £199 per month.

Band D council tax per month - a solid teal line jumping up and down centred on the national average, with five points where it goes below the £156 national per dwelling average.

27 March 2026. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Source: Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government, Council tax in England 2026/27.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 20/03/2026

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on public investment this week, highlighting how plans to increase capital expenditure over the next financial years from April are unlikely to be transformative. Read more: www.icaew.com/insights/vie...

ICAEW chart of the week: Public investment.

A line chart showing three measures of public sector investment in relation to the size of the economy between 2024/25 and 2030/31.

Public sector gross investment/GDP (in purple): 4.9%, 5.1%, 5.0%, 5.3%, 5.1%. 5.0% and 4.9%.

Public sector gross fixed capital formation/GDP (in ICAEW red): 3.7%, 3.8%, 4.0%, 4.1%, 3.9%, 3.8% and 3.9%.

Public sector net investment/GDP (in orange): 2.6%, 2.7%, 2.6%, 2.8%, 2.6%, 2.5% and 2.5%.

20 Mar 2026. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA.
Source: OBR, Economic and fiscal outlook, Mar 2026.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on student loans in England, showing how they were impaired by 40% compared with their face value on 31 March 2025. Freezing thresholds should reduce that by 2%, but the plan may be about to change ... Read more: bit.ly/40k9c7b

CAEW chart of the week: Student loans.

A step chart showing student loan receivables in England 2024/25.

Face value: £234bn on 31 Mar 2024 + £21bn new loans + £15bn interest - £5bn repayments = £265bn on 31 Mar 2025.

Impairments: -£83bn on 31 Mar 2024 - £24bn impairment charge = -£107bn on 31 March 2025.

Carrying value: £151bn on 31 Mar 2024 + £21bn new loans + £15bn interest - £5bn repayments - £24bn impairments = £158bn on 31 Mar 2025.

27 Feb 2026. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA.
Source: Department for Education, 'Consolidated Annual Report and Accounts 2024/25'.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 20/02/2026

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on average earnings this week, showing how average monthly total pay fell by 0.2% in 2025 following much stronger growth in the previous two years. Read more: bit.ly/3OqvPnA

ICAEW chart of the week: Real pay.

A line chart showing average pay in actual and real terms over the past three years.

Average monthly total pay adjusted for CPI (+1.9%, +3.6%, -0.2%): £3,029, £3,086, £3,198 and £3,192 in Dec 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 respectively.

Average monthly total pay actual (+5.8%, +6.2%, +3.0%): £2,760, £2,919, £3,099 and £3,192 in Dec 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 respectively.

20 Feb 2026. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA.
Source: ONS, 'Real average weekly earnings using CPI, Feb 2026'.
Seasonally adjusted; converted to monthly pay; in Dec 2025 £.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 25/07/2025

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act 2025 passed by Congress and signed by President Trump on 4 July. Congressional Budget Office analysis indicates spending cuts should be more than offset by tax cuts over the next 10 years. Read more: bit.ly/4o7KRvE

ICAEW chart of the week: A step chart showing the projected effect of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act 2025 on the average annual US federal government deficit between FY2025 and FY2034.

Left hand column: Baseline projection $2,109bn.

Steps 1 to 3 (shaded): Spending cuts -$110bn plus Tax cuts +$449bn plus Extra interest +$68bn.

Step 4: Net change +$407bn (total of steps 1 to 3).

Right hand column: Revised projection $2,516bn.

25 Jul 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday.
Sources: Congressional Budget Office; ICAEW calculations.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 18/07/2025

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on the costs of #climatechange and our need to get the public finances back under control and improve the UK's resilience against storms and floods as the climate gets warmer and wetter. Read more: bit.ly/3UhAo34

A line chart on climate change and the public finances, with three curved lines for public sector net as a share of GDP over fifty years. with labels from March 2034 onwards.

Bottom line: Baseline public sector net debt/GDP. Falls from just under 100% of GDP to 90% of GDP in March 2034 and then rises to 100%, 130%, 188% and 274% of GDP in March 2044, 2054, 2064 and 2074 respectively.

Middle line: Baseline + climate change (below 3°C scenario). Rises from 94% of GDP in March 2034 (label not shown) to 114%, 157%, 235% and 348% of GDP in March 2044, 2054, 2064 and 2074 respectively.

Top line: Baseline + climate change + economic shocks. Rises from 104% in March 2034 to 134%, 187%, 275% and then 398% in March 2074.

18 Jul 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday. Sources: OBR, 'Fiscal risks and sustainability', Sep 2024 and Jul 2025 reports.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 11/07/2025

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on the balance of payments in 2024/25, showing how the current account deficit of £83bn comprises a trade deficit of £44bn, net investment and other earnings of £23bn, and net transfers of £16bn. Read more: bit.ly/4nHBhQ9

A step chart on the balance of payments in 2024/25 showing payments and receipts on either side, with three shaded sub-steps in-between adding up to the current account deficit, being the difference between total payments and receipts.

Payments £1,401bn = £924bn for imports + £430bn earnings + £47bn transfers.

Receipts £1,318bn = £880bn from exports + £407bn earnings + £31bn transfers.

Step 1: Trade deficit (imports and exports) -£44bn.
Step 2: Primary income deficit (earnings) -£23bn.
Step 3: Secondary income deficit (transfers) -£16bn.

Step 4: Current account deficit (sum of steps 1 to 3) -£83bn.

11 Jul 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday. Source: ONS, 'Balance of payments, UK: Jan-Mar 2025', seasonally adjusted, four quarters to Mar 2025.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 04/07/2025

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on the #energypricecap in the UK, which fell by 7% in the third quarter of 2025 to £1,720. Domestic energy prices have stabilised recently, but remain vulnerable to global events. Read more: bit.ly/4le6CIH @ofgem.gov.uk @cornwallinsight.bsky.social

Column chart on the energy price cap by quarter since 2023. There is a vertical line between 2023 Q4 and 2024 Q1 to show the point when typical energy usage changed.

Price cap 2023 Q1 £4,279, Q2 £3,280, Q3 £2,074 and Q4 £1,923; 2024 Q1 £1,928, Q2 £1,690, Q3 £1,568 and Q4 £1,179; 2025 Q1 £1,738, Q2 £1,849, Q3 £1,720 and Q4 £1,698 (pale colours as a forecast).

Bars show annual standing charges and per kWh electricity and gas prices for each quarter as set out in the accompanying article.

4 Jul 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday. Sources: Ofgem, Cornwall Insights. Typical electricity and gas usage 2,900kWh and 12,000KWh to 2023 Q4 and 2,700kWh and 11,500kWh from 2024 Q1.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 27/06/2025

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social illustrates the relative shares of economic activity around the world compared with population on both a market-exchange rate and purchasing power basis. Read more: bit.ly/46fES1l

A three column chart each adding up to 100% with the central bar showing percentages of the global population, the left-hand bar showing percentages of market GDP. and the right-hand bar showing percentage of power-purchasing-parity (PPP) GDP. The bars are linked with lines to emphasise the relative proportions.

US & Canada: Market GDP 29% - Population 5% - PPP GDP 16%.
Europe: Market GDP 23% - Population 7% - PPP GDP 18%.
China: Market GDP 17% - Population 17% - PPP GDP 20%.
Rest of the world: Market GDP 24% - Population 28% - PPP GDP 30%.
South Asia & China: Market GDP 7% - Population 43% - PPP GDP 16%.

27 Jun 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft. Design by Sunday. Source: IMF, 'World Economic Outlook Database, Apr 2025'.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 20/06/2025

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on the #spendingreview again this week, looking at how more money for capital investment contrasts with a tight settlement for operating budgets. #publicfinances @darrenpjones.bsky.social Read more: bit.ly/4jVUhaj

A step chart showing the Spending Review 2025 change in total departmental budgets over three years.

2025/26: Day-to-day spending £517bn + Capital investment £131bn = total £648bn.

Inflation: +£38bn (+1.9% a year).

Day-to-day spending: +£21bn (+1.3% a year).

Capital investment: +£10bn (+2.4% a year).

2028/29: Day-to-day spending £568bn + Capital investment £149bn = total £717bn.

20 Jun 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft. Design by Sunday.
Source: HM Treasury. 'Spending Review 2025'.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 13/06/2025

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on the Spending Review 2025 and how the Chancellor and @darrenpjones.bsky.social ‪have set out the UK Government's priorities through the financial choices they have made. Read more: bit.ly/43IR7lF

A bar chart showing the average annual percentage increase in departmental spending over the three years to 2028/29.

Defence +3.8%.
Security +3.7%.
Business & Trade +3.0%.
Health +2.7%.
Local Government. +2.6% (central funding +1.1%, balance from local taxation).
Justice +2.0%.
Overall average increase +1.5%.
Science +0.9%.
Education +0.8%.
Devolved administrations +0.7%.
Energy & New Zero +0.7%.
Home Office +0.5%.
Cabinet Office +0.4%.
DWP -0.2%.
Transport -0.5%.
Culture, Media & Sport -1.4%.
HMRC -1.5%.
Hm Treasury -1.9%.
Agriculture & Rural Affairs -2.3%.
Foreign & Development -8.3%.
Asylum -13.1%.

13 Jun 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft. Design by Sunday. Source: HM Treasury, 'Spending Review 2025'.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 06/06/2025

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on NATO defence spending this week, illustrating how much more NATO countries would need to spend to reach President Trump's proposed new targets of 3.5% or 5.0% of GDP. Read more: bit.ly/3ZjKGmx

Two column chart showing NATO defence spending.

Left hand column - USA: £732bn defence spending in 2024, £67bn defence spending to 3.5% of GDP, and £342bn defence-related spending to 5.0% of GDP = £1,141bn total.

Right hand column - Europe and Canada: £408bn defence spending in 2024, £36bn defence spending to 2.0% of GDP, £271bn defence spending to 3.5% of GDP, and £301bn defence-related spending to 5.0% of GDP.

6 June 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday. Sources: NATO, 'Annual Report 2024'; ICAEW calculations.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 30/05/2025

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on how quarterly GDP has increased by 21% over the last three years. Most of that has been inflation, with economic growth of just 2.8% - a fall of 0.5% on a per person basis. Read more: bit.ly/3HhsHGW

A step chart showing the change in quarterly GDP over three years.

Quarterly GDP in 2022 Q1 of £610.3bn + Inflation (GDP deflator) of £108.0bn (+17.7%) + Economic growth of £20.3bn (+2.8%) = £738.6bn in 2025 Q1.

Shaded box in the middle shows population growth of +£23.7bn (+3.3%) - per capita growth of £3.4bn (-0.5%) = +£20.3bn (+2.8%) for economic growth.

30 May 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday. Source: ONS, 'GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: Jan-Mar 2025'.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 24/05/2025

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on UK-EU trade in 2024 in the light of Monday's deal to reduce trade barriers put in place since Brexit. Read more: bit.ly/4kwUb9N @ukgovernment.bsky.social @eudelegationuk.bsky.social

Step chart on UK-EU trade in 2024.

Left hand column: UK imports from EU of £454bn (agriproducts £50bn + goods £264bn + services £140bn).

Steps: Less trade deficit on agriproducts of £33bn less trade deficit on goods of £107bn plus trade surplus on services of £47bn = an overall trade deficit of £93bn.

Right hand column: UK exports to EU of £361bn (agriproducts £17bn + goods £157bn + services £187bn).

23 May 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft. Source: ONS, 'UK trade: goods and services publication tables'. (c) ICAEW 2025.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 02/05/2025

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social is on Canada this week, highlighting its trade surplus on energy sales to the US, and trade deficits on other goods and services. Read more: bit.ly/3RLw7UE

A step chart illustrating the differences between Canadian imports and exports in 2024.

Left hand column - US exports to Canada: C$601bn = C$36bn energy + C$442bn goods (excluding energy) + C$123bn services.

Right hand column - Canada exports to the US: C$650bn = C$171bn energy + C$404bn goods (excluding energy) + C$75bn services.

Step 1 - Trade surplus on energy +C$135bn.
Step 2 - Trade deficit on goods -C£38bn.
Step 3 - Trade deficit on services -C$48bn.

2 May 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday.

Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; US International Trade Commission. C$1.37 = US1.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social looks at trade with the US in light of the 10% tariffs imposed on the UK by President Trump on ‘liberation day’. Read more: bit.ly/3R4JlLQ

ICAEW chart of the week: trade with the US -

A column chart showing the £71bn UK trade surplus with the US in the year to September 2024 (seasonally adjusted), being the difference between UK exports to the US of £182bn (£58bn in goods exports and £124bn in services exports) and UK imports from the US of £111bn (£56bn in goods imports and £55bn in services imports).

4 Apr 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday.
Source: DBT, 'United States Trade and Investment Factsheet, 21 Feb 2025'.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 28/03/2025

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social takes a look at how the Chancellor trimmed the government's spending plans to dig the public finances out of the hole created by a deteriorating fiscal forecast. Read more: bit.ly/3DLQq0N

Step chart showing changes to the 2029/30 forecast current budget balance since Oct 2024.

£10bn current budget surplus per the Oct 2024 forecast- £2bn lower growth - £10bn higher interest - £2bn other revisions = £4bn current budget deficit revised forecast + £5bn extra receipts + £11bn spending cuts - £2bn = £10bn current budget surplus per the Mar 2025 forecast.

The chart also shows how the Oct 2024 forecast fiscal deficit of £71bn = a current budget surplus £10bn - £81bn net investment; how the revised forecast of £84bn = £4bn current budget deficit + £80bn net investment; and how the Mar 2025 forecast deficit of £74bn = a current budget surplus £10bn - £84bn net investment.

28 Mar 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday.

Source: OBR, 'Economic and fiscal outlook, Mar 2025'.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 07/02/2025

The end of year capital rush My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social this week highlights the big rush in UK public sector capital expenditure in the final quarter of each financial year. Just what is it about March that makes it the best time to build new assets? Read more: bit.ly/3CGFxww

Column chart illustrating UK public sector capital expenditure by quarter, comprising three financial years each made up of four quarters.

2022/23 £85.3bn: Q1 (Apr-Jun) £14.4bn, Q2 (Jul-Sep) £18.4bn, Q3 (Oct-Dec) £20.2bn, Q4 (Jan-Mar) £32.3bn.
2023/24 £102.7bn: Q1 £18.6bn, Q2 £22.8bn, Q3 £24.2bn, Q4 £37.1bn.
2024/25 £109.0bn (forecast): Q1 £20.4bn, Q2 £23.8bn, Q3 £25.8bn, Q4 forecast £39.0bn.

7 Feb 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA.
Sources: ONS, 'Public sector finances, Dec 2024’; OBR, ‘Economic and fiscal outlook, Oct 2024’.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social looks at how federal debt is on track to reach and exceed levels last seen in the 1940s according to Congressional Budget Office forecasts released just before President Trump was inaugurated. Read more: bit.ly/40MvnDZ

Shaded-area chart showing debt held by the public/GDP between 1905 and 2035, with highlightedpeaks of 106% of GDP in 1946, 48% in 1993, a projected 100% in Sep 2025, and a projected 118% in Sep 2035.

24 Jan 2025. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday. Source: US Congressional Budget Office.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 29/11/2024

My #icaewchartoftheweek for @icaew.bsky.social looks at what we all do for a living. The government wants to move more people from 'economic inactivity' into the workforce, benefiting the #publicfinances twice over by cutting welfare and bringing in more tax receipts. Read more: bit.ly/3VdcpmA

Pie chart showing what we all do for a living.

Employees 29.0m (42%), self-employed (6%), unemployed 1.5m (2%), not working as ill or disabled (4%), homemakers and other 2.7m (4%), retired 12.3m (18%), children under 16 13.9m (20%), and students 16 and over 2.5m (4%).

28 Nov 2024. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday.
Source: ONS, 'Summary of labour market statistics, Jul-Sep 2024'.
(C) ICAEW 2024.

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Martin Wheatcroft @martinwheatcroft.bsky.social · 27/09/2024

My #icaewchartoftheweek illustrates how PM Keir Starmer’s £172,153 salary entitlement would have been £305,770 if prime ministerial pay had kept pace with inflation since 2009. Perhaps it might be time for an independent pay review body for the PM? Read more: bit.ly/4gILOXG

Column chart showing the Prime Minister's actual salary, official salary and official salary extrapolated in line with inflation on 1 April between 2009 and 2024. See text for numbers.

26 Sep 2024. Chart by Martin Wheatcroft FCA. Design by Sunday. Sources: House of Commons research briefings; ICAEW calculations. (c) ICAEW 2024.

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