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Marianne Paire

@marpaire.bsky.social
117 followers 235 following 58 posts

Visiting Fellow at the @ICDS-tallinn.bsky.social - Baltic way of life - RT ≠ endorsement

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Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
⏳ Just 4 days to go before the #ABCDTallinn ! Looking forward to seeing everyone in Tallinn next week 🇪🇪 @icds-tallinn.bsky.social
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Europeanising NATO will mean a profound transformation—not only of planning, command structures and capabilities, but also of the political and strategic balance, as a stronger and more confident Europe seeks a greater role in shaping Alliance decisions.
icds.ee
Europeanising NATO Brief Series - International Centre for Defence and Security
In response to the continuing threat from Russia and to US demands that they should assume primary responsibility for their own conventional deterrence and
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
From drones and AI-enabled systems to satellite capabilities, technological advances are reshaping warfare in Ukraine and the Middle East. Europe must keep pace. Read our new brief in the EU Defence series 👇https://icds.ee/en/eu-defence-series-europes-tech-challenge/
icds.ee
EU Defence Series: Europe's Tech Challenge - International Centre for Defence and Security
In Ukraine and the Middle East, rapid advances in, for example, drones, AI‑enabled systems, and satellite capabilities are reshaping modern warfare. Europe must keep pace with this rapid technological...
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Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
My latest paper for the @icds-tallinn.bsky.social explores the growing cooperation in the armaments sector between France and the Baltic Sea states. Read it here 👇
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Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Great article of @shaunwalker7.bsky.social (w/ insights from discuss. at the #LennartMeriConference 😏).”The key Q is whether the very public tensions around collective def. have eroded the perception in the Kremlin that an incursion into NATO would provoke an overwhelming military response”
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Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
« Whatever path France chooses to take, it will be difficult, if not impossible, to abandon the European dimension, which is essential in economic, financial, technological and operational terms. » www.lemonde.fr/idees/articl...
lemonde.fr
SCAF : « Sans sursaut technologique, les forces aériennes françaises risquent d’être reléguées à un rôle secondaire dans un potentiel conflit européen »
TRIBUNE. Dans une tribune au « Monde », un collectif de spécialistes des questions de défense réagit à l’abandon du projet d’avion de combat franco-allemand. La France ne doit, selon eux, céder ni à l...
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Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
Our #EU Briefs series continues with a paper by Béatrice Hainaut (@irsem.bsky.social) on space-related issues🛰️ : read “European Autonomy in Orbit” here ⬇️
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Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
Timely discussion at #LennartMeriConference about deterrence in Europe considering the direct threat of Russia and emerging uncertainty of US engagement : good opportunity for @hfayet.bsky.social @ifri.bsky.social to explain the French concept of forward deterrence
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
The change required from Europe is not only to rearm and reduce dependencies, but also to reshape our narratives and mental maps. The decisions we make today are existential for our future, writes Kristi Raik ahead of the #LennartMeriConference. @kristiraik.bsky.social
icds.ee
The (In)dispensable Ally: How to Recraft the Pillars of Estonia's and Europe's Security - International Centre for Defence and Security
The world order is undergoing an upheaval at least as radical as the end of the Cold War. Back then, Estonia made crucial choices regarding the restoration of independence and return to the western wo...
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Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Just a few days to go until the Lennart Meri Conference! For those lucky enough to attend, see you on 15 May in #Tallinn. Good news for everyone else: you’ll be able to follow the discussions via livestream
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
When it comes to regional cooperation in the North, the glass is clearly half full. Yet one can also have too much of a good thing. @haukkala.bsky.social and @kristiraik.bsky.social on the benefits and constraints of deeper Northern European security cooperation. @fiia.fi #NB8briefs
icds.ee
NB8 Series. The Circles of Security: The Role of the NB8 in (Northern) European Security - International Centre for Defence and Security
Russia’s war against Ukraine has profoundly worsened Europe’s security environment, but it has also spurred deeper regional cooperation. The challenge now is to ensure that this growing number of init...
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ARES Group - EU @aresgroup-eu.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
📄 INTEGRATION OF THE EUROPEAN CAPABILITY PROCESS IN MEMBER STATES’ ADMINISTRATION: THE ESTONIAN CASE By Tony Lawrence, Head of the Defence Policy and Strategy Programme, @icds-tallinn.bsky.social 📍READ THE COMMENT: www.iris-france.org/integration-... #ARESGroup #IndustrialPolicy #Europe
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Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
France is currently conducting its 12th deployment as part of #NATO Baltic Air Policing mission, operating from Šiauliai in Lithuania. Rafale aircrafts made a stopover at Lielvārde Air Base in Latvia, and I was lucky enough to see them up close! #StrongerTogether @armee-air-espace.bsky.social
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Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
I am very happy to celebrate #ICDS’s 20th anniversary this year, an 🇪🇪 think tank whose fantastic team I had the honour to join a few months ago. Palju õnne - bon anniversaire, @icds-tallinn.bsky.social !! 🎉
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 06/04/2026
Last week, ICDS hosted a discussion on strengthening Europe’s deterrence. The conversation focused on recent developments in nuclear cooperation and French nuclear doctrine. H.E. Mr @emmanuelmignot.bsky.social, Jyri Lavikainen, Dr Ian Anthony. Moderator: @marpaire.bsky.social
icds.ee
Strengthening Europe’s Nuclear Deterrence - International Centre for Defence and Security
On 1 April, the International Centre for Defence and Security held a public discussion on the recent developments in European nuclear cooperation and French nuclear doctrine.
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Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
Read the paper we wrote with July Decarpentrie for @icds-tallinn.bsky.social on the key points of the French president’s speech on nuclear deterrence ⤵️
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Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Particularly interesting discussions on cyber issues and Russia by geographers from @ifgeopolitique.bsky.social& @geode, and researchers from @coruscant-eu.bsky.social at the @icds-tallinn.bsky.social last week. Delighted to have welcome @kevinlimonier.bsky.social& @mlallouet.bsky.social !
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Diplomaatia @diplomaatia.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
Lisaks RKK uudiskirjas: - Hosaka: Ukraina pärast Jermakki - Fedosiuk: Valimised Ukrainas - Gasper & Surendran: Saksamaa uus ajateenistus - Paire: Prantsusmaa ajateenistus ja toetus Ukrainale - Kohv & Klyszcz: Võitlus Vene hüdraga @sanshiro.bsky.social @marpaire.bsky.social @ivanklyszcz.com
diplomaatia.ee
Nädal välis- ja julgeolekupoliitikas: Otsustav nädal ja jõupingutused Euroopas, Jermaki lahkumine ja valimisdebatt Ukrainas, võitlus Vene hübriidhüdraga – Diplomaatia
Euroopa saatust kujundav nädal Kristi Raik, RKK direktor Ukraina on enneolematult tugeva surve all, et nõustuda paljuski Venemaa poolt ette kirjutatud
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
NATO figures show Europe and Canada are catching up with the US: their share of #NATO defence spending rose from 28% in 2015 to 36% in 2024, and is expected to reach 38% this year. ⬇️ Felix Gasper reviews current defence spending by each NATO ally: icds.ee/en/defence-s...
icds.ee
Defence Spending: Who Is Doing What? September 2025 - ICDS
According to NATO's latest figures, most Allies have increased their defence spending compared to July 2024, when we last examined the data. But most also have a long way to go if they are to meet the...
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Diplomaatia @diplomaatia.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
📧 RKK UUDISKIRI: - Prantsusmaa valitsuse kukkumine @marpaire.bsky.social - Felix Gasper: Kes teeb mida? NATO riikide kaitsekulude ülevaade - Marek Kohv: Nädalavahetuse rünnak Kiievile - Sahaidatšnõi keskus: Droonisõja õppetunnid Ukrainast - Finn-Niklar Brünner: Euroopa vajab paremat tuumaheidutust
diplomaatia.ee
Nädal välis- ja julgeolekupoliitikas: Prantsusmaa ja Euroopa kaitsevõime, Ukraina – Diplomaatia
Rahvusvahelise Kaitseuuringute Keskuse (RKK) 2025. aasta 37. nädala uudiskiri. RKK teadurid kommenteerivad olulisi sündmusi ja suundumusi välispoliitikas ja julgeolekuvaldkonnas.
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Diplomaatia @diplomaatia.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
📩 UUDISKIRI: - Ukraina rinne - Gaza lõks @meriliarjakas.bsky.social - Tollimaksud muutsid India suhtumist - Külma sõja õpitunnid - Prantsusmaa kaitse- ja julgeolekustrateegia uuendamine @marpaire.bsky.social - Armeeniast Aserbaidžaani läbi Washingtoni @koen-claessen.bsky.social
diplomaatia.ee
Nädal välis- ja julgeolekupoliitikas: Ukraina, Iisrael, SCO, Armeenia-Aserbaidžaan, külma sõja õppetunnid NATOle – Diplomaatia
Rahvusvahelise Kaitseuuringute Keskuse (RKK) 2025. aasta 36. nädala uudiskiri. RKK teadurid kommenteerivad olulisi sündmusi ja suundumusi välispoliitikas ja julgeolekuvaldkonnas.
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
🤝 We are delighted to welcome Helga Kalm as the International Centre for Defence and Security Deputy Director and Head of the Foreign Policy Programme, and Eda Ahi as the new Director of the #LennartMeriConference. More: icds.ee/en/icds-welc...
icds.ee
ICDS Welcomes New Deputy Director and LMC Director - ICDS
We are excited to welcome Helga Kalm in her new role as the Deputy Director of ICDS and the Head of the Foreign Policy Programme from August 2025. It is also our pleasure to announce that Eda Ahi has ...
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Elie Tenenbaum @elietenenbaum.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
📢 Ma tribune dans @lemonde.fr à propos de l'Ukraine et du débat sur les garanties de sécurité: j’y défends une idée simple mais exigeante : ne pas attendre le cessez-le-feu pour agir 👉 : www.lemonde.fr/idees/articl... Petit 🧵à dérouler ⤵️
lemonde.fr
Face à Poutine, il faut « retourner le facteur temps à l’avantage de l’Ukraine »
TRIBUNE. Les forces de garanties de sécurité que les Européens proposent d’engager sur le front ukrainien doivent être déployées avant et non après un cessez-le-feu pour forcer le Kremlin à signer un ...
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Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 22/08/2025
The key takeaways from the French National Strategic Review ? Read my latest commentary for the @icds-tallinn.bsky.social 👇
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Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 22/07/2025
Read my commentary for @icds-tallinn.bsky.social on the latest developments on European defence issues 👇
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Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 14/07/2025
On the Bastille Day, I'd like to go back over the key points from the President's speech to the armed forces he made yesterday🧶👇: m.youtube.com/watch?v=eLwM...
m.youtube.com
Discours aux armées du Président Emmanuel Macron depuis l'Hôtel de Brienne.
YouTube video by Élysée
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Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 11/07/2025
French CHOD’s press conference this morning was the first in a series of defence events in France over the next few days. The President will deliver a speech on 13 July, a day before the traditional military parade for Bastille Day 🧶👇
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Minna Ålander 🌻 @alanderminna.bsky.social · 06/07/2025
Great news: after Denmark signed an agreement with Ukraine that allows for Ukrainian companies to move parts of their production to Denmark, Sweden is also open for a similar agreement. There’s a very productive competition among the Nordics and Denmark holds the bar really high
dn.se
Försvarsministern öppnar för ukrainska vapenfabriker på svensk mark
Danmark och Ukraina har ingått i ett avtal som låter ukrainska försvarsföretag att öppna fabriker på dansk mark, skriver Kyiv Independent.
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Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 06/07/2025
Laulupidu pluvieux, Laulupidu heureux! Feel very lucky to have the chance to attend the Estonian song festival. Even with the rain, such a great atmosphere! Elagu Eesti 🇪🇪
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
European Allies must find the confidence to pursue their own interests more assertively, writes Tony Lawrence. That confidence will stem, in part, from delivering on the summit’s key commitments. #NATOsummit
icds.ee
The Hague Summit: Mission Accomplished - ICDS
NATO's summit in The Hague succeeded in producing a substantial and important deliverable—a new defence investment pledge. But in dealing with the underlying strains in the transatlantic relationship,...
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Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 19/06/2025
Read my last brief for @icds-tallinn.bsky.social on the EU-NATO relation. It is part of a series of briefs focusing on NATO ahead of next week's summit in The Hague: icds.ee/en/the-hague...
icds.ee
The Hague Summit Series - ICDS
When NATO heads of state and government meet in The Hague on 24 and 25 June, there will be much to talk about. Building consensus around NATO’s new capability targets has sometimes been difficult, eve...
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Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
@marie-doha.bsky.social at #RigaStratComDialogue : “need to understand Stratcom as an element of NATO deterrence also” ; “it needs planning to trigger right”
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Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
Paul Zajac on nuclear deterrence at #RigaStratComDialogue : « resolve & determination towards European public opinions ; need to communicate together »
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Manuel Lafont Rapnouil @mlafontrapnouil.bsky.social · 09/06/2025
Tomorrow, at the #RigaStratComDialogue, do not miss the panel on #NuclearDeterrence where my colleague Paul Zajac from @cea.fr will share views on the renewed focus on nuclear power in the interplay between powers, and the consequences for Europe. Cc @stratcomcoe.bsky.social
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Manuel Lafont Rapnouil @mlafontrapnouil.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
Listening to @baibabraze.bsky.social on this #RigaStratComDialogue panel about the identity dimension of current challenges to #democracy, or how strongmen and populists change the #truth and conviction dialectic, play divides over #resilience, and ultimately weaken our understanding of democracy.
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Minna Ålander 🌻 @alanderminna.bsky.social · 05/06/2025
For @icds-tallinn.bsky.social, I wrote that the whole Nordic-Baltic region is a potential frontline in a conflict with Russia - not only the Baltic states and Finland but also Norwegian High North and even Denmark together with Sweden as gatekeepers of the Baltic Sea and Iceland along the GIUK gap.
icds.ee
A Region in the Making: The Nordic-Baltic Alignment - ICDS
In the past three years, the Nordic-Baltic group has reached unprecedented levels of coherence and prominence. The main drivers of the alignment are the shared threat assessment that Russia poses an e...
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 05/06/2025
A shared threat assessment of Russia and tangible support for Ukraine have given the NB8 a strong voice in Europe on security and defence issues. Minna Ålander explains what underpins the region’s unity—and why it matters. @alanderminna.bsky.social @chathamhouse.org #LennartMeriConference
icds.ee
A Region in the Making: The Nordic-Baltic Alignment - ICDS
In the past three years, the Nordic-Baltic group has reached unprecedented levels of coherence and prominence. The main drivers of the alignment are the shared threat assessment that Russia poses an e...
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Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
Read the latest brief of the @icds-tallinn.bsky.social EU series on the key issue of military mobility written by Mihai Chihaia from @epc-official.bsky.social
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Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 23/05/2025
Read my last piece for @icds-tallinn.bsky.social on the treaty recently signed between France and Poland in Nancy which includes an interesting section on (European) defence 👇
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
"We have to be careful. If we say "we have to do this or we are screwed", and we don't do it, what kind of message does this send?" — @brunotertrais.bsky.social, Deputy Director of the Foundation for Strategic Research A Herculean Task: Can Europe Defend Itself? #LennartMeriConference
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
"I think a lot of the NATO message to Finland has been that they need to NATO-ise, but I think NATO needs to Finlandise." — @camillegrand.bsky.social, Distinguished Policy Fellow at the @ecfr.eu A Herculean Task: Can Europe Defend Itself? #LennartMeriConference
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 19/05/2025
#LennartMeriConference
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
💬 "The NB8 has become, if not the, then a powerhouse of Europe, and other states gravitate towards us." —Espen Barth Eide, Minister of @norwaymfa.government.no 🔹 How to Make the NB8 the New Powerhouse of Europe? #LennartMeriConference
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
❓ What makes the Lennart Meri Conference special? JJ Green of @wtopnews.bsky.social explains why #LennartMeriConference is unlike any other. 🎙️ Day 2 interview with @jjgreenjr.bsky.social We Shall Go Forward Together #LennartMeriConference
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The 🇫🇷 Joint Staff - Millitary operations @frenchforces.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
📍Far North | PEGASE 25 kicks off 🇫🇷 combat power deployed to Northern Europe. 🎯 A concrete commitment to European security, side by side with our allies, to deter and defend. Next stop: 🇸🇪
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
"It is utterly naïve to think that what is happening in the trade dimension will not affect defence relations." The political connection, built on trust, is just as crucial as the material one, writes Tomas Jermalavičius.
icds.ee
Treaty on the Rocks? - ICDS
Anyone familiar with NATO will say it is a political as much as a military alliance. This means the political principles and decisions that underpin its cohesion and unity are as important as its mili...
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Diplomaatia @diplomaatia.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Lisaks RKK/ICDS nädalakirjas: - Tomas Jermalavičius: Leping karidel? - Venemaa hävitustöö Ukrainas jätkub @marekkohv.bsky.social - Euroopa kaitsepoliitika valge paber @marpaire.bsky.social - Henrik Praks: Venemaa hübriidrünnakud Euroopas. Heidutusest omistamise ja reageerimiseni
diplomaatia.ee
Nädal välis- ja julgeolekupoliitikas: USA tollid ning EL ja NATO, tsiviiltaristu ründamine Ukrainas, ELi kaitsepoliitika, hübriidrünnakud – Diplomaatia
Rahvusvahelise Kaitseuuringute Keskuse (RKK) 2025. aasta 15. nädala uudiskiri. RKK teadurid kommenteerivad olulisi sündmusi ja suundumusi välispoliitikas ja julgeolekuvaldkonnas.
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
The EU Commission's White Paper is clear: the key to Europe's future defence lies in swift and strong action. But for it to be credible, all member states must be deeply involved. ⬇️ @marpaire.bsky.social breaks down how Europe plans to secure its future.
icds.ee
EU Defence Series: The White Paper for European Defence Readiness 2030 - ICDS
The Commission presented its White Paper on defence on 19 March at a press conference with the Commissioner for Defence and Space, Andrius Kubilius, and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and...
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Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
My analysis of the EU White Paper on Defence for the @icds-tallinn.bsky.social is available here 👇 icds.ee/en/eu-defenc...
icds.ee
EU Defence Series: The White Paper for European Defence Readiness 2030 - ICDS
The Commission presented its White Paper on defence on 19 March at a press conference with the Commissioner for Defence and Space, Andrius Kubilius, and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and...
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The Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 03/04/2025
⚡️'Coalition of the Willing' agrees at least one European leader should engage with Russia, Stubb says. Finnish President Alexander Stubb suggested that either France or the United Kingdom, as key coalition leaders, should initiate contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
kyivindependent.com
'Coalition of the Willing' agrees at least one European leader should engage with Russia, Stubb says
Finnish President Alexander Stubb suggested that either France or the United Kingdom, as key coalition leaders, should initiate contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
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