Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 18/09/2026⏳ Just 4 days to go before the #ABCDTallinn ! Looking forward to seeing everyone in Tallinn next week 🇪🇪 @icds-tallinn.bsky.social 062
Reposted by Marianne PaireICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 07/09/2026Europeanising NATO will mean a profound transformation—not only of planning, command structures and capabilities, but also of the political and strategic balance, as a stronger and more confident Europe seeks a greater role in shaping Alliance decisions.icds.eeEuropeanising NATO Brief Series - International Centre for Defence and SecurityIn response to the continuing threat from Russia and to US demands that they should assume primary responsibility for their own conventional deterrence and 24316
Reposted by Marianne PaireICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 03/08/2026From drones and AI-enabled systems to satellite capabilities, technological advances are reshaping warfare in Ukraine and the Middle East. Europe must keep pace. Read our new brief in the EU Defence series 👇https://icds.ee/en/eu-defence-series-europes-tech-challenge/icds.eeEU Defence Series: Europe's Tech Challenge - International Centre for Defence and SecurityIn Ukraine and the Middle East, rapid advances in, for example, drones, AI‑enabled systems, and satellite capabilities are reshaping modern warfare. Europe must keep pace with this rapid technological... 172
Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 21/07/2026My latest paper for the @icds-tallinn.bsky.social explores the growing cooperation in the armaments sector between France and the Baltic Sea states. Read it here 👇 053
Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 29/06/2026Great article of @shaunwalker7.bsky.social (w/ insights from discuss. at the #LennartMeriConference 😏).”The key Q is whether the very public tensions around collective def. have eroded the perception in the Kremlin that an incursion into NATO would provoke an overwhelming military response” 143
Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 18/06/2026« Whatever path France chooses to take, it will be difficult, if not impossible, to abandon the European dimension, which is essential in economic, financial, technological and operational terms. » www.lemonde.fr/idees/articl...lemonde.frSCAF : « Sans sursaut technologique, les forces aériennes françaises risquent d’être reléguées à un rôle secondaire dans un potentiel conflit européen »TRIBUNE. Dans une tribune au « Monde », un collectif de spécialistes des questions de défense réagit à l’abandon du projet d’avion de combat franco-allemand. La France ne doit, selon eux, céder ni à l... 000
Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 26/05/2026Our #EU Briefs series continues with a paper by Béatrice Hainaut (@irsem.bsky.social) on space-related issues🛰️ : read “European Autonomy in Orbit” here ⬇️ 051
Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 17/05/2026Timely discussion at #LennartMeriConference about deterrence in Europe considering the direct threat of Russia and emerging uncertainty of US engagement : good opportunity for @hfayet.bsky.social @ifri.bsky.social to explain the French concept of forward deterrence 040
Reposted by Marianne PaireICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 13/05/2026The change required from Europe is not only to rearm and reduce dependencies, but also to reshape our narratives and mental maps. The decisions we make today are existential for our future, writes Kristi Raik ahead of the #LennartMeriConference. @kristiraik.bsky.socialicds.eeThe (In)dispensable Ally: How to Recraft the Pillars of Estonia's and Europe's Security - International Centre for Defence and SecurityThe world order is undergoing an upheaval at least as radical as the end of the Cold War. Back then, Estonia made crucial choices regarding the restoration of independence and return to the western wo... 0126
Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 05/05/2026Just a few days to go until the Lennart Meri Conference! For those lucky enough to attend, see you on 15 May in #Tallinn. Good news for everyone else: you’ll be able to follow the discussions via livestream 073
Reposted by Marianne PaireICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 17/04/2026When it comes to regional cooperation in the North, the glass is clearly half full. Yet one can also have too much of a good thing. @haukkala.bsky.social and @kristiraik.bsky.social on the benefits and constraints of deeper Northern European security cooperation. @fiia.fi #NB8briefsicds.eeNB8 Series. The Circles of Security: The Role of the NB8 in (Northern) European Security - International Centre for Defence and SecurityRussia’s war against Ukraine has profoundly worsened Europe’s security environment, but it has also spurred deeper regional cooperation. The challenge now is to ensure that this growing number of init... 042
Reposted by Marianne PaireARES Group - EU @aresgroup-eu.bsky.social · 29/04/2026📄 INTEGRATION OF THE EUROPEAN CAPABILITY PROCESS IN MEMBER STATES’ ADMINISTRATION: THE ESTONIAN CASE By Tony Lawrence, Head of the Defence Policy and Strategy Programme, @icds-tallinn.bsky.social 📍READ THE COMMENT: www.iris-france.org/integration-... #ARESGroup #IndustrialPolicy #Europe 152
Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 14/04/2026France is currently conducting its 12th deployment as part of #NATO Baltic Air Policing mission, operating from Šiauliai in Lithuania. Rafale aircrafts made a stopover at Lielvārde Air Base in Latvia, and I was lucky enough to see them up close! #StrongerTogether @armee-air-espace.bsky.social 052
Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 08/04/2026I am very happy to celebrate #ICDS’s 20th anniversary this year, an 🇪🇪 think tank whose fantastic team I had the honour to join a few months ago. Palju õnne - bon anniversaire, @icds-tallinn.bsky.social !! 🎉 020
Reposted by Marianne PaireICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 06/04/2026Last week, ICDS hosted a discussion on strengthening Europe’s deterrence. The conversation focused on recent developments in nuclear cooperation and French nuclear doctrine. H.E. Mr @emmanuelmignot.bsky.social, Jyri Lavikainen, Dr Ian Anthony. Moderator: @marpaire.bsky.socialicds.eeStrengthening Europe’s Nuclear Deterrence - International Centre for Defence and SecurityOn 1 April, the International Centre for Defence and Security held a public discussion on the recent developments in European nuclear cooperation and French nuclear doctrine. 073
Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 05/03/2026Read the paper we wrote with July Decarpentrie for @icds-tallinn.bsky.social on the key points of the French president’s speech on nuclear deterrence ⤵️ 051
Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 22/12/2025Particularly interesting discussions on cyber issues and Russia by geographers from @ifgeopolitique.bsky.social& @geode, and researchers from @coruscant-eu.bsky.social at the @icds-tallinn.bsky.social last week. Delighted to have welcome @kevinlimonier.bsky.social& @mlallouet.bsky.social ! 061
Reposted by Marianne PaireDiplomaatia @diplomaatia.bsky.social · 16/12/2025Lisaks RKK uudiskirjas: - Hosaka: Ukraina pärast Jermakki - Fedosiuk: Valimised Ukrainas - Gasper & Surendran: Saksamaa uus ajateenistus - Paire: Prantsusmaa ajateenistus ja toetus Ukrainale - Kohv & Klyszcz: Võitlus Vene hüdraga @sanshiro.bsky.social @marpaire.bsky.social @ivanklyszcz.comdiplomaatia.eeNädal välis- ja julgeolekupoliitikas: Otsustav nädal ja jõupingutused Euroopas, Jermaki lahkumine ja valimisdebatt Ukrainas, võitlus Vene hübriidhüdraga – DiplomaatiaEuroopa saatust kujundav nädal Kristi Raik, RKK direktor Ukraina on enneolematult tugeva surve all, et nõustuda paljuski Venemaa poolt ette kirjutatud 031
Reposted by Marianne PaireICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 16/09/2025NATO figures show Europe and Canada are catching up with the US: their share of #NATO defence spending rose from 28% in 2015 to 36% in 2024, and is expected to reach 38% this year. ⬇️ Felix Gasper reviews current defence spending by each NATO ally: icds.ee/en/defence-s...icds.eeDefence Spending: Who Is Doing What? September 2025 - ICDSAccording to NATO's latest figures, most Allies have increased their defence spending compared to July 2024, when we last examined the data. But most also have a long way to go if they are to meet the... 0115
Reposted by Marianne PaireDiplomaatia @diplomaatia.bsky.social · 10/09/2025 📧 RKK UUDISKIRI: - Prantsusmaa valitsuse kukkumine @marpaire.bsky.social - Felix Gasper: Kes teeb mida? NATO riikide kaitsekulude ülevaade - Marek Kohv: Nädalavahetuse rünnak Kiievile - Sahaidatšnõi keskus: Droonisõja õppetunnid Ukrainast - Finn-Niklar Brünner: Euroopa vajab paremat tuumaheidutustdiplomaatia.eeNädal välis- ja julgeolekupoliitikas: Prantsusmaa ja Euroopa kaitsevõime, Ukraina – DiplomaatiaRahvusvahelise Kaitseuuringute Keskuse (RKK) 2025. aasta 37. nädala uudiskiri. RKK teadurid kommenteerivad olulisi sündmusi ja suundumusi välispoliitikas ja julgeolekuvaldkonnas. 021
Reposted by Marianne PaireDiplomaatia @diplomaatia.bsky.social · 03/09/2025📩 UUDISKIRI: - Ukraina rinne - Gaza lõks @meriliarjakas.bsky.social - Tollimaksud muutsid India suhtumist - Külma sõja õpitunnid - Prantsusmaa kaitse- ja julgeolekustrateegia uuendamine @marpaire.bsky.social - Armeeniast Aserbaidžaani läbi Washingtoni @koen-claessen.bsky.socialdiplomaatia.eeNädal välis- ja julgeolekupoliitikas: Ukraina, Iisrael, SCO, Armeenia-Aserbaidžaan, külma sõja õppetunnid NATOle – DiplomaatiaRahvusvahelise Kaitseuuringute Keskuse (RKK) 2025. aasta 36. nädala uudiskiri. RKK teadurid kommenteerivad olulisi sündmusi ja suundumusi välispoliitikas ja julgeolekuvaldkonnas. 031
Reposted by Marianne PaireICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 01/09/2025🤝 We are delighted to welcome Helga Kalm as the International Centre for Defence and Security Deputy Director and Head of the Foreign Policy Programme, and Eda Ahi as the new Director of the #LennartMeriConference. More: icds.ee/en/icds-welc...icds.eeICDS Welcomes New Deputy Director and LMC Director - ICDSWe are excited to welcome Helga Kalm in her new role as the Deputy Director of ICDS and the Head of the Foreign Policy Programme from August 2025. It is also our pleasure to announce that Eda Ahi has ... 0101
Reposted by Marianne PaireElie Tenenbaum @elietenenbaum.bsky.social · 22/08/2025📢 Ma tribune dans @lemonde.fr à propos de l'Ukraine et du débat sur les garanties de sécurité: j’y défends une idée simple mais exigeante : ne pas attendre le cessez-le-feu pour agir 👉 : www.lemonde.fr/idees/articl... Petit 🧵à dérouler ⤵️lemonde.frFace à Poutine, il faut « retourner le facteur temps à l’avantage de l’Ukraine »TRIBUNE. Les forces de garanties de sécurité que les Européens proposent d’engager sur le front ukrainien doivent être déployées avant et non après un cessez-le-feu pour forcer le Kremlin à signer un ... 26532
Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 22/08/2025The key takeaways from the French National Strategic Review ? Read my latest commentary for the @icds-tallinn.bsky.social 👇 062
Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 22/07/2025Read my commentary for @icds-tallinn.bsky.social on the latest developments on European defence issues 👇 071
Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 14/07/2025On the Bastille Day, I'd like to go back over the key points from the President's speech to the armed forces he made yesterday🧶👇: m.youtube.com/watch?v=eLwM...m.youtube.comDiscours aux armées du Président Emmanuel Macron depuis l'Hôtel de Brienne.YouTube video by Élysée 192
Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 11/07/2025French CHOD’s press conference this morning was the first in a series of defence events in France over the next few days. The President will deliver a speech on 13 July, a day before the traditional military parade for Bastille Day 🧶👇 120
Reposted by Marianne PaireMinna Ålander 🌻 @alanderminna.bsky.social · 06/07/2025Great news: after Denmark signed an agreement with Ukraine that allows for Ukrainian companies to move parts of their production to Denmark, Sweden is also open for a similar agreement. There’s a very productive competition among the Nordics and Denmark holds the bar really highdn.seFörsvarsministern öppnar för ukrainska vapenfabriker på svensk markDanmark och Ukraina har ingått i ett avtal som låter ukrainska försvarsföretag att öppna fabriker på dansk mark, skriver Kyiv Independent. 430764
Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 06/07/2025Laulupidu pluvieux, Laulupidu heureux! Feel very lucky to have the chance to attend the Estonian song festival. Even with the rain, such a great atmosphere! Elagu Eesti 🇪🇪 0121
Reposted by Marianne PaireICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 27/06/2025European Allies must find the confidence to pursue their own interests more assertively, writes Tony Lawrence. That confidence will stem, in part, from delivering on the summit’s key commitments. #NATOsummiticds.eeThe Hague Summit: Mission Accomplished - ICDSNATO's summit in The Hague succeeded in producing a substantial and important deliverable—a new defence investment pledge. But in dealing with the underlying strains in the transatlantic relationship,... 162
Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 19/06/2025Read my last brief for @icds-tallinn.bsky.social on the EU-NATO relation. It is part of a series of briefs focusing on NATO ahead of next week's summit in The Hague: icds.ee/en/the-hague...icds.eeThe Hague Summit Series - ICDSWhen NATO heads of state and government meet in The Hague on 24 and 25 June, there will be much to talk about. Building consensus around NATO’s new capability targets has sometimes been difficult, eve... 062
Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 10/06/2025@marie-doha.bsky.social at #RigaStratComDialogue : “need to understand Stratcom as an element of NATO deterrence also” ; “it needs planning to trigger right” 042
Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 10/06/2025Paul Zajac on nuclear deterrence at #RigaStratComDialogue : « resolve & determination towards European public opinions ; need to communicate together » 100
Reposted by Marianne PaireManuel Lafont Rapnouil @mlafontrapnouil.bsky.social · 09/06/2025Tomorrow, at the #RigaStratComDialogue, do not miss the panel on #NuclearDeterrence where my colleague Paul Zajac from @cea.fr will share views on the renewed focus on nuclear power in the interplay between powers, and the consequences for Europe. Cc @stratcomcoe.bsky.social 011
Reposted by Marianne PaireManuel Lafont Rapnouil @mlafontrapnouil.bsky.social · 10/06/2025Listening to @baibabraze.bsky.social on this #RigaStratComDialogue panel about the identity dimension of current challenges to #democracy, or how strongmen and populists change the #truth and conviction dialectic, play divides over #resilience, and ultimately weaken our understanding of democracy. 131
Reposted by Marianne PaireMinna Ålander 🌻 @alanderminna.bsky.social · 05/06/2025For @icds-tallinn.bsky.social, I wrote that the whole Nordic-Baltic region is a potential frontline in a conflict with Russia - not only the Baltic states and Finland but also Norwegian High North and even Denmark together with Sweden as gatekeepers of the Baltic Sea and Iceland along the GIUK gap.icds.eeA Region in the Making: The Nordic-Baltic Alignment - ICDSIn the past three years, the Nordic-Baltic group has reached unprecedented levels of coherence and prominence. The main drivers of the alignment are the shared threat assessment that Russia poses an e... 824861
Reposted by Marianne PaireICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 05/06/2025A shared threat assessment of Russia and tangible support for Ukraine have given the NB8 a strong voice in Europe on security and defence issues. Minna Ålander explains what underpins the region’s unity—and why it matters. @alanderminna.bsky.social @chathamhouse.org #LennartMeriConferenceicds.eeA Region in the Making: The Nordic-Baltic Alignment - ICDSIn the past three years, the Nordic-Baltic group has reached unprecedented levels of coherence and prominence. The main drivers of the alignment are the shared threat assessment that Russia poses an e... 06520
Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 27/05/2025Read the latest brief of the @icds-tallinn.bsky.social EU series on the key issue of military mobility written by Mihai Chihaia from @epc-official.bsky.social 051
Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 23/05/2025Read my last piece for @icds-tallinn.bsky.social on the treaty recently signed between France and Poland in Nancy which includes an interesting section on (European) defence 👇 082
Reposted by Marianne PaireICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 17/05/2025"We have to be careful. If we say "we have to do this or we are screwed", and we don't do it, what kind of message does this send?" — @brunotertrais.bsky.social, Deputy Director of the Foundation for Strategic Research A Herculean Task: Can Europe Defend Itself? #LennartMeriConference 0166
Reposted by Marianne PaireICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 17/05/2025"I think a lot of the NATO message to Finland has been that they need to NATO-ise, but I think NATO needs to Finlandise." — @camillegrand.bsky.social, Distinguished Policy Fellow at the @ecfr.eu A Herculean Task: Can Europe Defend Itself? #LennartMeriConference 59523
Reposted by Marianne PaireICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 19/05/2025#LennartMeriConference 021
Reposted by Marianne PaireICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 21/05/2025💬 "The NB8 has become, if not the, then a powerhouse of Europe, and other states gravitate towards us." —Espen Barth Eide, Minister of @norwaymfa.government.no 🔹 How to Make the NB8 the New Powerhouse of Europe? #LennartMeriConference 141
Reposted by Marianne PaireICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 22/05/2025❓ What makes the Lennart Meri Conference special? JJ Green of @wtopnews.bsky.social explains why #LennartMeriConference is unlike any other. 🎙️ Day 2 interview with @jjgreenjr.bsky.social We Shall Go Forward Together #LennartMeriConference 032
Reposted by Marianne PaireThe 🇫🇷 Joint Staff - Millitary operations @frenchforces.bsky.social · 22/04/2025📍Far North | PEGASE 25 kicks off 🇫🇷 combat power deployed to Northern Europe. 🎯 A concrete commitment to European security, side by side with our allies, to deter and defend. Next stop: 🇸🇪 0164
Reposted by Marianne PaireICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 09/04/2025"It is utterly naïve to think that what is happening in the trade dimension will not affect defence relations." The political connection, built on trust, is just as crucial as the material one, writes Tomas Jermalavičius.icds.eeTreaty on the Rocks? - ICDSAnyone familiar with NATO will say it is a political as much as a military alliance. This means the political principles and decisions that underpin its cohesion and unity are as important as its mili... 0156
Reposted by Marianne PaireDiplomaatia @diplomaatia.bsky.social · 09/04/2025Lisaks RKK/ICDS nädalakirjas: - Tomas Jermalavičius: Leping karidel? - Venemaa hävitustöö Ukrainas jätkub @marekkohv.bsky.social - Euroopa kaitsepoliitika valge paber @marpaire.bsky.social - Henrik Praks: Venemaa hübriidrünnakud Euroopas. Heidutusest omistamise ja reageerimisenidiplomaatia.eeNädal välis- ja julgeolekupoliitikas: USA tollid ning EL ja NATO, tsiviiltaristu ründamine Ukrainas, ELi kaitsepoliitika, hübriidrünnakud – DiplomaatiaRahvusvahelise Kaitseuuringute Keskuse (RKK) 2025. aasta 15. nädala uudiskiri. RKK teadurid kommenteerivad olulisi sündmusi ja suundumusi välispoliitikas ja julgeolekuvaldkonnas. 041
Reposted by Marianne PaireICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 08/04/2025The EU Commission's White Paper is clear: the key to Europe's future defence lies in swift and strong action. But for it to be credible, all member states must be deeply involved. ⬇️ @marpaire.bsky.social breaks down how Europe plans to secure its future.icds.eeEU Defence Series: The White Paper for European Defence Readiness 2030 - ICDSThe Commission presented its White Paper on defence on 19 March at a press conference with the Commissioner for Defence and Space, Andrius Kubilius, and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and... 031
Marianne Paire @marpaire.bsky.social · 08/04/2025My analysis of the EU White Paper on Defence for the @icds-tallinn.bsky.social is available here 👇 icds.ee/en/eu-defenc...icds.eeEU Defence Series: The White Paper for European Defence Readiness 2030 - ICDSThe Commission presented its White Paper on defence on 19 March at a press conference with the Commissioner for Defence and Space, Andrius Kubilius, and the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and... 051
Reposted by Marianne PaireThe Kyiv Independent @kyivindependent.com · 03/04/2025⚡️'Coalition of the Willing' agrees at least one European leader should engage with Russia, Stubb says. Finnish President Alexander Stubb suggested that either France or the United Kingdom, as key coalition leaders, should initiate contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin.kyivindependent.com'Coalition of the Willing' agrees at least one European leader should engage with Russia, Stubb saysFinnish President Alexander Stubb suggested that either France or the United Kingdom, as key coalition leaders, should initiate contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin. 2628643