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Kristi Raik

@kristiraik.bsky.social
5.4K followers 201 following 67 posts

Director, International Centre for Defence and Security in Tallinn. Adjunct Professor, University of Turku. Feeling home in Estonia, Finland and at sea.

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Reposted by Kristi Raik
ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Estonia’s security 20 years ago, 20 years ahead: What brought us here? What will bring us forward? This spring, we celebrate our 20th birthday. Thank you for being part of our journey and for the interesting discussions today. @kristiraik.bsky.social @ilvestoomas.bsky.social @kadriliik.bsky.social
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Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
In this piece for @iai.tv, I argue that agency of smaller states matters especially in times of rupture. Without their own determined agency, Estonia, Finland, or Ukraine would never have emerged as independent states and would not have survived against all odds. iai.tv/articles/sma...
iai.tv
Small states have more power than Trump and Putin think
<p><em>As conflicts between great powers come to a head across the Middle East and Europe, it seems inevitable that smaller states will find themselves caught up as collateral damage. But political sc...
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Finnish Institute of International Affairs @fiia.fi · 18/03/2026
The second panel of #FIIADay2026 focused on how Europe can cope with Russia in the future. Discussing the topic were @thomasgomart.bsky.social, @kristiraik.bsky.social, Arkady Moshes and Samu Paukkunen. Dialogue alone will not bring solutions. Europe needs a clear, consistent policy towards Russia.
Samu Paukkunen listening to Kristi Raik speaking on stage.Kristi Raik and Thomas Gomart looking to their right on stage.Arkady Moshes sitting in a chair, dressed in a suit and with a microphone.
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Diplomaatia @diplomaatia.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
Hetkel on veel vara hinnata Iraani sõja pikaajalist strateegilist mõju Ukrainale ja Venemaale, ent Iraani sõja vahetud tagajärjed paistavad Ukraina jaoks pigem kahjulikud, kirjutab Kristi Raik RKK uudiskirjas. @kristiraik.bsky.social @icds-tallinn.bsky.social
diplomaatia.ee
Nädal välis- ja julgeolekupoliitikas: Iraani sõja laienev mõju, Ungari, Poola, vaimne tervis sõja ajal – Diplomaatia
Rahvusvahelise Kaitseuuringute Keskuse (RKK) 2026. aasta 12. nädala uudiskiri. RKK teadurid kommenteerivad olulisi sündmusi ja suundumusi välispoliitikas ja julgeolekuvaldkonnas.
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Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
In this piece for @iai.tv, I argue that agency of smaller states matters especially in times of rupture. Without their own determined agency, Estonia, Finland, or Ukraine would never have emerged as independent states and would not have survived against all odds. iai.tv/articles/sma...
iai.tv
Small states have more power than Trump and Putin think
<p><em>As conflicts between great powers come to a head across the Middle East and Europe, it seems inevitable that smaller states will find themselves caught up as collateral damage. But political sc...
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Reposted by Kristi Raik
The International Spectator @intlspectator.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
⚠️#openaccessarticle 🇪🇺EU Policy towards #Ukraine: Entering Geopolitical Competition over European Order 🔍loom.ly/pvQxlsA ✒️ @kristiraik.bsky.social @stevenblockmans.bsky.social , Anna Osypchuk & Anton Suslov
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Institute of Art and Ideas @iai.tv · 12/03/2026
As conflicts come to a head across the Middle East and Europe, it seems inevitable that smaller states will find themselves caught up as collateral damage. | bit.ly/4uF39rI But @kristiraik.bsky.social argues small states are more resilient than we give them credit for.
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Ukraine and Europe as a whole must generate sufficient force to stop Russia’s aggression, even if US support ends completely. This can be achieved if Europeans show enough political will and self-confidence, wrote @kristiraik.bsky.social at the beginning of the year.
icds.ee
2026: Europe’s year of bad choices - International Centre for Defence and Security
The United States is reshaping the international order in ways Russia has long dreamed of. Washington’s recent military operation in Venezuela leaves little
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
As Russia's full-scale war enters its fifth year, and Ukraine keeps on fighting for their sovereignty, we should keep in mind that it’s not only Ukraine that is at stake. #StandWithUkraine 📸 Kaitsevägi
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
It is not in Europe’s interest to join the talks in order to become a party to a bad deal that would increase the likelihood of a new invasion of Ukraine or even a broader war on the continent, writes Kristi Raik. @kristiraik.bsky.social
icds.ee
A special representative of Europe for Russia—to do what? - International Centre for Defence and Security
While another round of peace talks was being held between Russia, Ukraine, and the US in Abu Dhabi, Europe was debating whether to appoint a special envoy to these talks. There are public disagreement...
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Diplomaatia @diplomaatia.bsky.social · 30/01/2026
Euroopa suurim mure on hetkel, kas EL suudab kiiresti ja jõuliselt tugevdada oma konkurentsi- ja kaitsevõimet. RKK direktor Kristi Raigi hinnangul pole praegu põhjust muretseda kahekiiruselise Euroopa pärast, kuigi väiksemate riikide tundlikkus on mõistetav. @kristiraik.bsky.social #ERR
vikerraadio.err.ee
Kristi Raik. Kahekiiruseline Euroopa Liit | Vikerraadio | ERR
Saksamaa ja Prantsusmaa nügivad kahekiiruselise Euroopa Liidu suunas, et saada üle poliitilisest tupikust otsuste tegemisel, sel ajendil pidasid kolmapäeval nõu kuue suurema liikmesriigi rahandusminis...
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Reposted by Kristi Raik
ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 09/01/2026
Washington’s recent military operation in Venezuela leaves little doubt that in today’s world, it is force—not law—that prevails. Europe's most difficult choices this year will come not from the east but from the west, writes @kristiraik.bsky.social. icds.ee/en/2026-euro...
icds.ee
2026: Europe’s year of bad choices - International Centre for Defence and Security
The United States is reshaping the international order in ways Russia has long dreamed of. Washington’s recent military operation in Venezuela leaves little
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Diplomaatia @diplomaatia.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
USA välkoperatsioon Venezuelas näitab, et tänases maailmas kehtib jõud, mitte õigus. Euroopal, sh Eestil, on ees keeruliste valikute aasta, mil tuleb pingutada, et ise oma saatust määramata. Euroopa kõige raskemad valikud tulevad läänest, mitte idast, kirjutab Kristi Raik. @kristiraik.bsky.social
diplomaatia.ee
Euroopa halbade valikute aasta – Diplomaatia
USA on maailmakorda ümber kujundamas viisil, millest Venemaa on pikalt unistanud. Ameerika välkoperatsioon Venezuelas ei jäta kahtlust, et tänases maailmas kehtib jõud, mitte õigus. Euroopal, sealhulg...
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 30/12/2025
NATO's deterrence of Russia still works, but to sustain it Europe must invest far more in its own defence. We no longer live in a world where the US sees itself as responsible for upholding global order, security structures, and shared Western values, says Kristi Raik. @kristiraik.bsky.social #ERR
news.err.ee
Kristi Raik: Europe must now stand up for the security of the continent itself
A world order where the United States sees itself as responsible for maintaining it no longer exists, while Europe must take far greater responsibility for its own security, International Centre for D...
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Diplomaatia @diplomaatia.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
USA uus julgeolekustrateegia kinnitab, et transatlantilised suhted on olemuslikult muutunud ja allianssi kooshoidev ühisosa on jäänud õhukeseks. Eesti välispoliitikal on käes kõige keerulisem aeg peale taasiseseisvumist, kirjutab @kristiraik.bsky.social.
diplomaatia.ee
Eesti välispoliitika silmitsi muutunud liitlassuhtega – Diplomaatia
USA värske julgeolekustrateegia kinnitab, et transatlantilised suhted on olemuslikult muutunud. USA on endiselt asendamatu liitlane, kuid ühisosa, mis allianssi koos hoiab, on jäänud õhukeseks. Washin...
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
"If Europe fails to replace US assistance, and if Europe leaves Ukraine to bleed economically and militarily, Moscow will consider its view of a weak Europe as vindicated." ⬇️ New @dgap.org Policy Brief by Karl-Heinz Kamp, @kristiraik.bsky.social, and Carolina Vendil Pallin.
icds.ee
Deterring ­Russia from Military Aggression Against Europe’s NATO Allies - International Centre for Defence and Security
Russia’s war on Ukraine and Donald Trump’s wavering on US ­security commitments for NATO have raised three fundamental questions: How does Moscow perceive Europe’s current ability to counter Russian a...
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
Dark trends in European security and the global order require small states in the Nordic-Baltic region to adapt, strike a new balance between realism and idealism, and join forces to defend their interests and values, writes Kristi Raik. @kristiraik.bsky.social
icds.ee
NB8: Masters of Adaptation in a Turbulent World - International Centre for Defence and Security
Next year, Estonia will be acting as chair of the Nordic-Baltic cooperation, known as the NB8 group. It will come at a time when the turbulent security environment has pushed countries in the region t...
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Foreign Policy @foreignpolicy.com · 16/09/2025
Finland avoided full subjugation to Moscow thanks to a combination of the broader geopolitical context and its own defense preparedness—not by being friendly toward the Soviets.
foreignpolicy.com
The Ghost of Finlandization Is Haunting the Ukraine Debate
A 1944 armistice that traded land for peace is a poor precedent for ending Russia’s war.
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
"It is Europe’s weakness & hesitation that encourage Russia and allow Putin to believe that he can achieve a better outcome by continuing the war. Europeans must define their long-term commitments so that Russia’s calculation changes & continuation of war no longer pays off." @kristiraik.bsky.social
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
Finland’s history offers a warning, not a model. Kristi Raik explains how Ukraine differs from Finland – and why trading land for peace is unlikely to bring lasting stability. @foreignpolicy.com @kristiraik.bsky.social
foreignpolicy.com
The Ghost of Finlandization Is Haunting the Ukraine Debate
A 1944 armistice that traded land for peace is a poor precedent for ending Russia’s war.
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Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
Thank you for great discussions @bruegel.org! Much remains to be done to strengthen European defence.
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Diplomaatia @diplomaatia.bsky.social · 18/08/2025
Euroopa vajab lähinädalatel kiiret edu kolme hiiglasliku ülesandega, märgib RKK direktor Kristi Raik: - Ukraina positsiooni tugevdamine - sõja hinna kasvatamine Venemaale - Trumpi veenmine, et Putini nõudmiste järgimine oleks hävituslik Euroopale ja häbiväärne USA-le. @kristiraik.bsky.social
diplomaatia.ee
Kristi Raik: Anchorage sunnib Euroopat käiku vahetama – Diplomaatia
Trumpi ja Putini kohtumise järgne esmamulje oli mõningane kergendus, olgugi et varjutatud iiveldavalt sõbralikust kohtlemisest, mis sõjakurjategijale osaks sai. Vähemalt diile ei tehtud. Ent mida enam...
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Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · 12/08/2025
This piece describes one of the key differences between Putin and Trump: Putin lies, while knowing exactly the facts and distorting them in a carefully calculated way (e.g. "Russia wants peace" - sure, if all its impossible demands are met). 1/ www.ft.com/content/a701...
ft.com
‘Manipulative’ Putin vs ‘emotional’ Trump: what past summits reveal about Alaska meeting
Russian leader’s technique is to lie and play for time, warns former French president François Hollande
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 11/08/2025
Europe has a vital interest in Ukraine's sovereignty and in defending against the Russian threat. Trump must be convinced that pressuring for a bad deal won’t bring peace but will increase the risk of a larger war, writes @kristiraik.bsky.social. ➡️ ERR: news.err.ee/1609767261/k...
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 09/08/2025
Donald Trumpi ja Vladimir Putini planeeritava kohtumise eel seisab Euroopa silmitsi olukorraga, kus kaks suurriiki hakkavad läbi rääkima mitte ainult Ukraina, vaid tõenäoliselt ka laiemalt Euroopa julgeoleku tuleviku üle, kirjutab @kristiraik.bsky.social ERRi portaalis. www.err.ee/1609766826/k...
err.ee
Kristi Raik: suurriikide mäng Euroopa saatusega
Kui USA ja Venemaa läbirääkimiste tulemus on see, et Ukrainale esitatakse "võta või jäta" lahendus, siis ei saa selle tingimused kindlasti olema Ukrainale soodsad. Miski ei viita sellele, et Donald Tr...
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 08/08/2025
Venemaa jaoks on Läänemeri kahtlemata strateegiliselt ülimalt oluline. Pilt on aga viimase 35 aastaga radikaalselt muutunud. Venemaa mõju Läänemere regioonis on nõrgem kui eelneva 300 a jooksul. @kristiraik.bsky.social 🎦 #Arvamusfestival "Kilud vs karud" ülekanne: www.youtube.com/watch?v=54cb...
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 28/07/2025
The EU’s credibility depends on its ability to raise the cost of war for Russia & secure a European future for Ukraine — ensuring Russia cannot win its brutal war of aggression. To defend itself, Europe needs Ukraine on its side, writes @kristiraik.bsky.social in a commentary for @tepsa.bsky.social
icds.ee
A More Autonomous Europe Will Need Ukraine On Its Side - ICDS
Under the second Trump administration, US foreign policy – its underlying principles, vision of the global order and relations with both allies and adversaries – is profoundly changing. This implies a...
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Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · 28/07/2025
On my usual summer sailing trip, this time including Naissaar, Tallinn, Porkkala, Örö. Traces of past presence of Soviet/Russian army in all of them, with tragic memories behind idyllic scenes. Can't help thinking when sailing freely around the Baltic Sea that freedom is really worth defending.
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Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
Europe has become divided between countries that think the NATO Hague commitment to spend 5% (or rather, 3,5%) on defence was about pleasing Trump and therefore don’t want to do it, and countries that believe it is in their own interest to spend 5% (or at least 3,5) and therefore take it seriously.
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Diplomaatia @diplomaatia.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
Kaitsekulude tõstmine on vajalik Euroopa enda julgeoleku, mitte Trumpile meeldimise pärast. Töö selle nimel, et kõik Euroopa NATO riigid mõistaksid ühtemoodi, miks ja kui palju on vaja kaitseks panustada, jätkub pärast tippkohtumist. @kristiraik.bsky.social 📺 ERR: www.err.ee/1609729008/r...
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
📣 ICDS is delighted to be part of the NATO Public Forum as an institutional partner during next week’s NATO Summit in The Hague. More information about the Forum (and registration to attend online) 👇 #NATOsummit #WeAreNATO @kristiraik.bsky.social
icds.ee
NATO Summit: join the Public Forum online - ICDS
The NATO Public Forum is a public event jointly organized by NATO and the Government of the Netherlands with civil society organisations, taking place during the Summit meetings of NATO’s Heads of Sta...
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DGAP @dgap.org · 18/06/2025
How to strenghten the 🇪🇺 pillar of #NATO? In their #PolicyBrief, @kristiraik.bsky.social & Marcin Terlikowski give recommendations on 3⃣ different levels: 1⃣ Strategic: More than ever, 🇪🇺 allies need a common strategic approach to the 🇺🇸 – based on the understanding that 🇷🇺 poses a ... /1
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Diplomaatia @diplomaatia.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
NATO ajaloos on ennegi ette tulnud kriise, kuid mitte selliseid, mida transatlantilised suhted praegu üle elavad. Eurooplastel tuleb karmis julgeolekukeskkonnas end kokku võtta, kirjutab @kristiraik.bsky.social RKK uudiskirjas. @icds-tallinn.bsky.social Lisaks nädalakirjas ⤵
diplomaatia.ee
Nädal välis- ja julgeolekupoliitikas: NATO tippkohtumine 24.-25. juunil: kaitsekulud ja USA, Iraan ja Venemaa, liberaalne maailmakord, Ukraina õppetunnid – Diplomaatia
Rahvusvahelise Kaitseuuringute Keskuse (RKK) 2025. aasta 25. nädala uudiskiri. RKK teadurid kommenteerivad olulisi sündmusi ja suundumusi välispoliitikas ja julgeolekuvaldkonnas.
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Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
A good overview of Europe’s agony in managing the transatlantic relationship. But I find the division to “countries that support so-called strategic autonomy” and “those who believe the transatlantic relationship must be defended at all costs” really problematic - why?👇 www.ft.com/content/e335...
ft.com
Europe confronts Trump’s triple threat on Ukraine, Nato and trade
Officials fear that the US president will play the big issues off against each other over five weeks of wide-ranging talks
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 02/06/2025
See also the programme of the Baltic Indo-Pacific Forum 2025 organized by the Japan Chair at the International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS) on 11 June in Tallinn: icds.ee/en/bipf-2025/
icds.ee
The Baltic Indo-Pacific Forum 2025 - ICDS
Baltic Indo-Pacific Forum 2025  The Baltic Indo-Pacific Forum 2025, organized by the Japan Chair at the International Centre for Defence
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 02/06/2025
Russia’s war against Ukraine and the erosion of the rules-based international order have motivated a closer security partnership between Estonia and Japan. A commentary by @kristiraik.bsky.social
icds.ee
Estonia and Japan: A Strengthening Partnership in A Turbulent World - ICDS
Estonia and Japan may be geographically far apart, but their views on international security and major powers—China, Russia, and the US—have been pushed closer together by the turbulent global environ...
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 28/05/2025
💬 “Major war is raging on the continent for the 4th consecutive year and we, Europeans, together with our allies & partners, have so far failed to give sufficient support to the brave Ukrainians” — @kristiraik.bsky.social, Director of the ICDS 🔹 We Shall Go Forward #LennartMeriConference
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Trans European Policy Studies Association (TEPSA) @tepsa.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
"Here we are in 2025 and geopolitics is back with a vengeance, as is the EU #enlargement file [...] completing the enlargement process successfully is a security and geopolitical necessity" - @kristiraik.bsky.social, Director of @icds-tallinn.bsky.social & TEPSA Board Member, at the #DanishPPC /28
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 16/05/2025
Major war is raging on the continent for the 4th consecutive year and we, Europeans, together with our allies and partners, have so far failed to give sufficient support to the brave Ukrainians. — @kristiraik.bsky.social, Director of @icds-tallinn.bsky.social Opening words of #LennartMeriConference
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Jenni Hellström @jennihellstrom.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
It’s time for Europe to act and rapidly increase defence spending, says @kristiraik.bsky.social at the @suomenpankki.fi @bruegel.bsky.social #EuropeDay panel, led by @jzettelmeyer.bsky.social. ”We cannot afford to neglect our security. The fundament of our wellfare would also erode.”
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Elisa Newby @elisanewby.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
Our #EuropeDay continues with a superb panel dialogue about economic resilience. @jzettelmeyer.bsky.social, @kristiraik.bsky.social, @heathergrabbe.bsky.social, @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social and Leena Mörttinen discuss how to best handle the current multi-crisis. @suomenpankki.fi @bruegel.bsky.social
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
While the US-Ukraine mineral deal provides no security guarantees, it deepens Washington’s ties with Kyiv—making full disengagement unlikely. By not rushing peace, the US is putting Russia under pressure, notes @kristiraik.bsky.social. ➡️ news.err.ee/1609684046/i...
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Diplomaatia @diplomaatia.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
Isegi kui enamik Euroopa riike ei nõustu iial Krimmi kuuluvust Venemaale de jure tunnustama, annab USA rahuplaan tugeva hoobi põhimõttele, et piire ei muudeta jõuga, kirjutab @kristiraik.bsky.social @icds-tallinn.bsky.social uudiskirjas.
diplomaatia.ee
Nädal välis- ja julgeolekupoliitikas: uus ring Ukraina rahuootusi, Iraan ja Venemaa – Diplomaatia
Rahvusvahelise Kaitseuuringute Keskuse (RKK) 2025. aasta 18. nädala uudiskiri. RKK teadurid kommenteerivad olulisi sündmusi ja suundumusi välispoliitikas ja julgeolekuvaldkonnas.
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Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
US administration would be wise to learn from the EU's past experience (I'm not expecting they will) of offering economic benefits to Russia in the hope of solving strategic disagreements. Russia won't give up its geopolitical goals in exchange for economic partnership with US (or Europe).
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Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
There is no way of denying the rapid decay of the transatlantic alliance. Yet Russia is still a long-term threat for Europe, and the US remains an indispensable ally in countering this threat. Here's my take for @ipq.bsky.social on how to manage the dependence ip-quarterly.com/en/case-nord...
ip-quarterly.com
The Case for Nordic-Baltic Pragmatism
Europe’s dilemma is that it needs to try and keep the United States on board while preparing for its departure. The best way forward is accelerated burden-shifting to build a more European NATO.
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Internationale Politik Quarterly @ipq.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
Europe’s most important task—and biggest dilemma—is trying to keep the US engaged in European defense, while also preparing for its possible abandonment. By sticking together, the Nordic-Baltic states are leading the way. New from @kristiraik.bsky.social: ip-quarterly.com/en/case-nord...
ip-quarterly.com
The Case for Nordic-Baltic Pragmatism
Europe’s dilemma is that it needs to try and keep the United States on board while preparing for its departure. The best way forward is accelerated burden-shifting to build a more European NATO.
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Finnish Institute of International Affairs @fiia.fi · 03/04/2025
The second #FIIAForum2025 panel focused on the prospects for European and Northern European security. @kristiraik.bsky.social, @haukkala.bsky.social, Mike Winnerstig, @sinikukka.bsky.social and @linnainmaki.bsky.social addressed the way forward amidst great power competition and Trump’s presidency.
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Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · 30/03/2025
During Trump’s first term, it was Japan’s PM Abe who practiced golf diplomacy with him. Now Finland’s President Stubb does the same. It's easy to mock flattery of Trump, but Europe needs to try every possible way to get its messages to the US. Europe’s dependence on the US won’t end anytime soon. 1/
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ICDS Tallinn @icds-tallinn.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
Since Europeans are not ready to defend themselves without US engagement, it would be suicidal to do anything that might encourage or precipitate US departure. Yet not preparing for such an eventuality would be irresponsible and short-sighted, writes Kristi Raik. @kristiraik.bsky.social
icds.ee
From Burden-Sharing to Burden-Shifting? Europe at Pains to Adapt to The Changing Transatlantic Alliance - ICDS
Europe faces thorny dilemmas in the field of defence and struggles to find common responses. It is imperative not only to keep the US engaged in Europe but also to prepare for a possible abandonment b...
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Kristi Raik @kristiraik.bsky.social · 17/03/2025
It was an honour to host President Sauli Niinistö, whose message for Europe is chrystal clear: Europe needs to be strong in order to avoid war.
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