Sign in

Mark N. Katz

@marknkatz.bsky.social
342 followers 160 following 45 posts

Professor Emeritus, George Mason U. Schar School of Policy and Government; Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council. Russian foreign policy; great power competition.

PostsRepliesMedia
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
My latest Substack post discusses how America's allies in different parts of the world have reacted to reduced U.S. support: marknkatz.substack.com/p/in-search-...
marknkatz.substack.com
In Search of Silver Linings
Are There Positive Results from Trump’s Reduction of Support for America’s Allies?
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
In my latest Substack post, I discuss how twenty-five years after 9/11, the War on Terror was neither won nor lost but transformed and subsumed: marknkatz.substack.com/p/neither-wo...
marknkatz.substack.com
Neither Won nor Lost, but Transformed and Subsumed
Reexamining the War on Terror 25 Years after 9/11
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
My contribution to the 2026 Special Issue of Foreign Analysis Magazine: foreignanalysis.com/the-transfor...
foreignanalysis.com
The Transformation of the Middle Eastern Security Order
The Decline of External Powers and Rise of Regional Powers
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
I wrote something on Substack on a topic I've been wondering about lately: marknkatz.substack.com/p/could-puti...
marknkatz.substack.com
Could Putin Succeed Where Saddam Failed?
Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein appeared to expect a quick victory when his forces attacked Iran in September 1980.
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Now Out! The special issue of Demokratizatsiya--The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization, on "How the Global South Views Russia" co-edited by Marlene Laruelle, Kazushige Kobayashi, and myself. muse.jhu.edu/issue/57185
muse.jhu.edu
Project MUSE - Demokratizatsiya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization-Volume 34, Number 1, Winter 2026
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 12/07/2026
My latest Substack: "Double Trouble? How Deploying a Double Could Backfire on Putin" marknkatz.substack.com/p/double-tro...
marknkatz.substack.com
Double Trouble?
How Deploying a Double Could Backfire on Putin
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 03/07/2026
My thoughts about someone betting $400,000 on Polymarket that Putin will be out as Russia's president by the end of this year: marknkatz.substack.com/p/why-would-...
marknkatz.substack.com
Why Would Someone Place a Large Bet on Putin Being Out as President by the End of the Year?
An anonymous, but apparently pro-Ukrainian, bettor has placed a $400,000 wager on the betting platform Polymarket that Putin will no longer be Russia’s president by the end of 2026.
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
I have joined many friends and colleagues whom I admire in starting a Substack account: Understanding the Emerging Multipolar Era open.substack.com/pub/marknkat...
open.substack.com
Understanding the Emerging Multipolar Era
The bipolar Soviet-American Cold War era is long over.
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Quoted in a Deutsche Welle article by Timothy Rooks on Saudi-Russian relations: www.dw.com/en/saudi-ara...
dw.com
Russia and Saudi Arabia draw closer amid OPEC upheaval
As Saudi Arabia and Russia deepen cooperation, their combined influence over global oil supply is growing. Could this shift the balance of power in energy markets?
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 30/05/2026
Join us for this George Washington University Russia Program webinar on June 10: calendar.gwu.edu/event/how-th...
calendar.gwu.edu
How the Global South Views Russia
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 24/05/2026
I was interviewed by the Serbian newspaper Danas about Russia and the Middle East: www.danas.rs/svet/intervj...
danas.rs
INTERVJU Profesor Mark N. Kac: Ruski uticaj na Bliskom istoku opao, rat u Ukrajini će se završiti tek kada ruska vojska svrgne Putina
Ruski uticaj na Bliskom istoku je opao, jer Moskva nije bila u stanju da spreči pad Asadovog režima u Siriji u decembru 2024. godine, nije bila spremna da značajno pomogne Iranu tokom njegovog dvanaes...
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Here is a piece I wrote for Gulf International Forum: gulfif.org/russia-iran-...
gulfif.org
Russia, Iran, and the Limits of Great-Power Mediation - Gulf International Forum
The war in the Gulf is reshaping Russia’s strategic position in the Middle East, particularly its approach toward Iran and its relationships with the Gulf...
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
www.rferl.org/amp/russia-i...
rferl.org
Mark Katz: With Iran, Russia's Balancing Act Is Wobbling 
000
Reposted by Mark N. Katz
New Eurasian Strategies Centre (NEST Centre) @nestcentre.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
The recording of yesterday's midweek briefing is now available. Mark N. Katz joined Katia Glod to discuss Russia's offer of mediation in Iran, Moscow's limited support for Tehran, and Russia's balancing strategy across the Middle East. youtu.be/jeYlBmf9A7s
youtu.be
Iran and Russia: mediation, influence, and limits
YouTube video by NEST Centre
011
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
My interview with DW News on Iranian FM Araghchi's meeting with Russian President Putin: youtu.be/zfm5qtTIKBc?...
youtu.be
Iran’s foreign minister in Moscow after US talks collapse
YouTube video by DW News
000
Reposted by Mark N. Katz
Länder-Analysen @laenderanalysen.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Die neuen Russland-Analysen 479 sind online: Angelina Davydova & Aleksej Martow analysieren, wie der Naturschutz geschwächt wird. Dazu Kommentare von @marknkatz.bsky.social, @ulflaessing.bsky.social und @jkleinschmidt.bsky.social zu außenpolitischen Fragen. 👇 laender-analysen.de/russland-ana...
002
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
I spoke with @martinzubko.bsky.social about "The Changing World Order" on @theirthinker.bsky.social.
110
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
American foreign policy regained influence after experiencing losses in Indochina and elsewhere during the 1970s. But can American foreign policy regain influence now after the losses it has experienced in the 21st century? katzeyeview.wordpress.com/2026/03/19/a...
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
My thoughts on how US intervention against Iran is one more example of how American focus on a smaller adversary can benefit America's larger ones: www.kyivpost.com/opinion/71013
kyivpost.com
Opinion: America’s Bad Habit
US intervention in Iran is just the latest example of Washington becoming distracted by smaller adversaries. The prospect of a years-long war in Iran casts a specter on US strategy.
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
I spoke with my former student, Jason Jay Smart, on his new YouTube channel about the implications of the U.S.-Iran conflict for Russia's influence in the Middle East: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lWP...
youtube.com
Ayatollah FALLS: Putin’s WORST Iran Nightmare
YouTube video by Smart Power Briefing
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
My latest article for Iran International: www.iranintl.com/en/202601222...
iranintl.com
Come what may in Iran, Russia will adapt to preserve influence
Russia likely views Iran’s mass anti-regime protests with deep unease, but may ultimately adapt just as it did in Syria to preserve influence whether the Islamic Republic survives or a new political o...
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Looking forward to participating in this Atlantic Council Eurasia Program discussion on Thursday, January 15: www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/how-to...
atlanticcouncil.org
How to lose friends and alienate allies: Russia’s foreign policy losing streak
Experts discuss Russia's partnerships in Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East, and how US policy should adjust as those relationships shift.
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
This is great news!
020
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 01/11/2025
My thoughts for @kyivpost.com on why the new government in Damascus has allowed Russia to keep its bases in Syria: www.kyivpost.com/opinion/63284
kyivpost.com
Opinion: Russia Keeps Its Syrian Bases: What’s in It for Damascus?
Seldom has a major power been able to keep a foothold in country where the government it propped up got overthrown. By staying in Syria, Moscow is an exception to the rule.
010
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 17/10/2025
My thoughts on former Iranian foreign minister Zarif's view that Russia does not want Iran to have normal relations with the rest of the world: www.iranintl.com/en/202510177...
iranintl.com
Zarif is right, Moscow wants Tehran locked in confrontation
While relations between Moscow and Tehran have generally been good, ties between former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and the seemingly perpetual Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov...
020
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
I spoke with Stewart Willy of Times (of London) Radio about how Trump's sanctions are unlikely to induce Putin to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine: youtu.be/SG7Ez07WO4U?...
youtu.be
Trump sanctions won’t stop Putin unless militarily action is used | Mark N. Katz
YouTube video by Times Radio
010
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 26/07/2025
My latest article for The National Interest: nationalinterest.org/feature/if-p...
nationalinterest.org
If Putin Were Smart, He Would Accept Trump’s Ceasefire Deal
Putin could strategically benefit from ending the Ukraine war by shifting US focus toward China, reducing dependence on Beijing, and regaining leverage—but he is too proud to do it.
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 13/07/2025
Long interview with Kyiv-based journalist Liudmila Nemirya, whose work I admire greatly: www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTqq...
youtube.com
When will Russia and China turn on each other? Alliances, distrust, mistakes, scenarios? – Mark Katz
YouTube video by NEMYRIALIVE
010
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
Honored that my 2005 article, "Iran and America: Is Rapprochement Finally Possible?" was included in the just published special issue of Middle East Policy, published by @mideastpolicy.bsky.social, on the Israel-Iran War.
111
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
My reflections on what Putin did not do to forestall the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities: www.kyivpost.com/opinion/55053
kyivpost.com
Opinion: A Path Not Taken: Russia’s Reaction to the US Strike on Iran
How the complex realities of geo-political decision-making can mark the difference between an imagined scenario and a real-world crisis.
010
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 18/06/2025
I argue in The National Interest that, "As more Global South governments that cooperate with the West join BRICS, it will be harder for Russia to orchestrate an anti-Western consensus within an expanded BRICS." nationalinterest.org/feature/why-...
nationalinterest.org
Why Russia Is Still a Little Skeptical About BRICS Expansion
While Putin sees BRICS expansion as a tool to counter Western influence, internal disagreements and differing group goals limit its effectiveness as a unified anti-Western alliance.
010
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 18/06/2025
Dr Mark N. Katz – Russia, the Middle East and the US: Shifting Regional Politics and a Changing Global Order open.substack.com/pub/duforumo...
open.substack.com
Dr Mark N. Katz – Russia, the Middle East and the US: Shifting Regional Politics and a Changing Global Order
Dr Mark N.
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 08/06/2025
In this article, I discuss how various theories of revolution as well as analogies with previous revolutions can provide suggestive, even if not definitive, answers about whether and to what extent the Trump phenomenon can be considered a revolution. www.e-ir.info/2025/06/08/c...
e-ir.info
Can the Trump Phenomenon Be Considered Revolutionary?
While Trump has succeeded in uniting disparate groups with differing interests, it is not clear whether anyone else can do so.
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
Pleased to have contributed a paper on "Russia, the Black Sea, and the Middle East" to the Transatlantic Leadership Network project on "Russian Intentions and Actions in the Black Sea": www.transatlantic.org/wp-content/u...
transatlantic.org
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 10/05/2025
Quoted in the Kyiv Post by Jason Jay Smart in an article comparing Cold War Kremlinology with present day Putinology: www.kyivpost.com/analysis/52380
kyivpost.com
Analysis: Kremlinology Is Dead. Putinology Rules. Inside Russia’s New Power Game
What the 2025 Moscow Victory Day Parade reveals about Russia’s shifting global alliances – and why the age of Kremlinology is over.
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 13/04/2025
My latest for the Kyiv Post: www.kyivpost.com/opinion/50648
kyivpost.com
Opinion: Diverging European and US Foreign Policy Interests Aren’t Just about Ukraine
From the start of the Trump administration, there has been a clash in the transatlantic view of foreign policy, particularly noticeable is how best to resolve Russia’s war on Ukraine.
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
My latest op-ed for The Hill: thehill.com/opinion/5176...
thehill.com
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 17/02/2025
My thoughts on the dangers of making an agreement about Ukraine without Ukraine: www.kyivpost.com/opinion/47276
kyivpost.com
Opinion: Will Donald Trump Be Another Neville Chamberlain?
The parallels between the 1938 Munich Agreement’s appeasement of Nazi Germany and Donald Trump’s Munich Security Conference accommodation of Putin should not be ignored.
020
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 22/12/2024
My thoughts on what Putin said about Syria during his December 19 press conference: www.kyivpost.com/opinion/44314
kyivpost.com
Opinion: Can Putin Really Keep Russia’s Bases in Syria?
Neither the US nor Israel should help Putin out by providing the new Syrian government with a motive to allow him to keep his bases in Syria.
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
My latest for the Atlantic Council: www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menaso...
atlanticcouncil.org
Will Russia be able to keep its bases in Syria?
It would be in the United States’ and Israel’s interests not to give the new Syrian government reasons to let Russia keep those bases.
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 15/12/2024
Not So Bad After All: How US Foreign Policy Could Navigate a Multipolar World www.e-ir.info/2024/12/15/n...
e-ir.info
Not So Bad After All: How US Foreign Policy Could Navigate a Multipolar World
Containing rivals via buck-passing may be less costly for the U.S. than continuing to respond to each and every threat as if in a unipolar world.
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 08/12/2024
Pleased that my comments were included in an Atlantic Council "Experts React" roundup on the implications of the fall of Assad: www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-at...
atlanticcouncil.org
Experts react: Rebels have toppled the Assad regime. What’s next for Syria, the Middle East, and the world?
Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad has been ousted as opposition forces quickly took Damascus. Atlantic Council experts share their insights.
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 07/12/2024
My thoughts on what's at stake for Putin in Syria for the Kyiv Post: www.kyivpost.com/opinion/43408
kyivpost.com
Opinion: Putin’s Stakes in Syria Couldn’t be Higher
The current setbacks faced by Russian forces in the face of rebel advances in Syria could have an impact that spreads far beyond that long-beleaguered Middle Eastern country.
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
Query: Since "Türkiye" has replaced "Turkey" as the correct spelling for the country, does this mean that "Türkiyish" should now be used as an adjective instead of "Turkish"? That would seem to be consistent in terms of spelling.
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 22/11/2024
My latest article for The National Interest: nationalinterest.org/feature/atac...
nationalinterest.org
ATACMS Missiles and Ukraine: What Will Donald Trump Do?
After many months of Ukrainian leader Zelensky asking, President Biden finally allowed Kyiv to fire U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles into Russian territory. What will Donald Tr...
000
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 20/11/2024
My latest commentary for The Hill: thehill.com/opinion/nati...
thehill.com
Supporting Ukraine against Russia is not a distraction from China
Since China and Russia are so closely aligned, thwarting Russian ambitions in Ukraine and elsewhere is a crucial element of the U.S. effort to contain China.
020
Mark N. Katz @marknkatz.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
My first post on Bluesky is something I published today in my long neglected blog on American foreign policy: marknkatz.wordpress.com/2024/11/14/t...
marknkatz.wordpress.com
Trump Is Not the Only Problem: Implications of Declining Supply of and Demand for American Security Assistance
In the geopolitical realm, American power and influence in various countries has usually depended on the convergence of two factors: 1) the demand on the part of other countries for American securi…
210