There are two posts this morning. This is the polls post, and separately there is a betting market update . Two-party preferred There is an ...

The election is tomorrow! Today we have two more polls:  Freshwater strategy 51.5/48.5 to Labor, and DemosAU 51/49 to Labor. The aggregation...

It looks like we are seeing some poll-herding in the lead-up to 2025 Election. Since yesterday's blog post, two more polls were released in ...

Today we have a new Newspoll (52/48) in Labor's favour. The Bayesian aggregation is unchanged. We are looking at a result much like the prev...

Analysis Trump is ideologically committed to tariffs, and short of disaster, is likely to end up with an increased tariff regime at the end ...

At this point everyone expects Labor to form government following the election. The only question is whether it will be majority or minority...

We have another Newspoll , in which Labor has a two-party preferred (2pp) vote share of 52 per cent (which is the same result as the previou...

I have been refining my code for the individual seats market at Sportsbet.com.au . Before we get to the charts for every seat, let me take y...

Yesterday we had an Essential poll with Labor on 50 per cent 2pp, the Coalition on 45 per cent and 5 per cent undecided (which I make as 52....

It is unusual for a second term government to outperform its first term 2pp vote share. Today's polls suggest it might be possible for this...

Today a YouGov poll was released. It had Labor on 52.5 per cent of the two party preferred vote share: a better result for Labor than the 2...

Today, let's look the complete set of charts from the individual seats market. Overall, we can see another net seat with Labor in the lead. ...

Yesterday brought us a new Newspoll: 52 to 48 in Labor's favour in two party preferred terms. If repeated at an election, this would deliver...

Yesterday brought us a new Newspoll: 52 to 48 in Labor's favour in two party preferred terms. If repeated at an election, this would deliver...

Yesterday's polls were plentiful. Roy Morgan had Labor on 53 per cent of the two party preferred vote (unchanged on its previous print a for...

Today I am looking at the individual seat betting markets. These markets are tricky to analyse because of the favourite-longshot bias proble...

Around lunchtime every day I take a snapshot of the odds for the winner of the next Federal Election at sportsbet . I use it as a barometer ...

Today I spent some time looking at the published two-party preferred (2pp) opinion poll estimates for each of the Australian states and terr...

Two-party preferred The localised regression has Labor on 49 per cent, and the Coalition on 51 per cent of the two party preferred vote (2pp...

How subsidies affect underlying inflation

I am seeing posts on X (formerly Twitter) and Bluesky that argue all is well with the Australian economy. The stylised facts go something ...

I am seeing posts on X (formerly Twitter) and Bluesky that argue all is well with the Australian economy. The stylised facts go something ...