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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 12/05/2025

Rent price growth still on the high side. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 30/04/2025

This smells a little odd to me. About a 1 in 69 chance that the set of all national 2pp polls since 1 April (inclusive) occurred by chance. Is it herding? Is it resampling? I don't know. But I don't like it. #auspol #ausvotes #ausecon #ausbiz

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 22/04/2025

Roy Morgan has Labor on 55.5% - better than any election result for Labor in the past 75 years. My aggregation is 52%, a similar result to the last election. #ausvotes #auspol #ausecon #ausbiz marktheballot.blogspot.com

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 22/04/2025

Today we focus on those seats where independent candidates have a prospect of winning the seat. There are a few new names here that could surprise. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 11/04/2025

Some movement on the individual seats market. #ausvotes #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 07/04/2025

(1) Another Morgan poll that seems out-of-step with the rest of the field. Out of caution, I am treating Morgan polls since mid-Feb as a different series. (2) Betting market firms to Labor. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 05/04/2025

It looks like the punters are firming their views on the 2025 Federal Election. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

The complete set of individual seat betting market probabilities (from sportsbet.com.au) showing some movement to Labor over the past 24 hours. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

The betting market still sees it as a very close race, #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/04/day-...

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 31/03/2025

Another way to view the betting market data - stacked win probabilities for each seat (data from this morning) - sorted by Labor. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 30/03/2025

Apologies the previous charts had the labels a bit garbled.

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 30/03/2025

Any model needs to contend with a paucity of data in 5 of the 8 states/territories. It also needs to contend with a paucity of pollsters in many states. You can see this in the attached charts (using a monthly analytic frame).

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 24/02/2025

A small movement on the betting market in the Coalition's favour. Time will tell if this is sustained. Coalition: $1.50. Labor $2.62. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 16/02/2025

The betting market continues its wondrous dance. The Coalition is on $1.53. Labor is on $2.50 to win. After adjusting for the bookmaker's overround, punters give the Coalition a 61.4% probability of winning the next election #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 14/02/2025

Betting market and polling update for mid-Februart #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2025/02/bett...

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 07/02/2025

In the minds of the punters, we are increasingly seeing a Coalition win next election. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon (Caveat: sometimes the punters get it wrong).

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 29/01/2025

Looks like a 25 basis point cut to the RBA cash rate is on the table for February. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 26/01/2025

I am sure someone was wondering how the new monthly ABS Household spending indicator compares with the quarterly Household Final Consumption Expenditure in the National Accounts. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

Second move in support of the Coalition at SportsBet this week. Labor $2.25 - Coalition $1.61 - Other $81.00 Note: gaps in these charts are those days where I did not capture betting odds. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 22/01/2025

A small movement on the betting market: Coalition $1.66 - Labor $2.20 - Other $81.00 Note: Gaps in these charts are days when I did not capture odds. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 20/01/2025

The polls are not being favourable to Labor. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 18/01/2025

A quick look at the sustained growth in the number of hours worked in the non-market sector. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 12/01/2025

Updated blog post on Australian recessions (and a complete set of charts). #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon markthegraph.blogspot.com/2025/01/aust...

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

Just a note of caution: it is possible that the rate of disinflation may be slowing (just as the labour market is showing signs of tightening). Not a crisis, but something to watch. #ausecon, #ausbiz #ausecon

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 08/01/2025

Monthly CPI: Annual new building costs down substantially. Annual rent growth still high. Monthly electricity up. Monthly reported annual rimmed mean at 3.2% (flatlining?) #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 06/01/2025

The first Morgan poll for 2025 gives my models somethign to think about. But the betting market was unmoved. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 05/01/2025

The NAIRU is an outcome of a short-run Phillips Curve. It might be misnamed. It is not directly observable, and it does have wide confidence intervals in estimation. But most inflation models use the NAIRU in one way or another.

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 01/01/2025

State of the Australian economy: Key labour force indicators are better than they have been 90% of the time in the past 25 years. Economic growth is in the bottom 10% of its 25-year range. Core inflation is higher than average and above its target band. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 31/12/2024

Booming public demand growth (government spending) vs anemic private demand growth (household consumption and business investment). Something don't smell right here. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 31/12/2024

The recent collapse in labour force productivity is remarkable: back to 2016 levels. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

Is the economy doing better than it was 10 years ago? What about individuals? 2/2 #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 30/12/2024

Is the economy doing better than it was 10 years ago? What about individuals? 1/2 #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 24/12/2024

Labor's slow drift away from government continues with the latest polling. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon marktheballot.blogspot.com/2024/12/end-...

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 17/12/2024

Has the ALP first-preference, primary vote just dipped towards 30 per cent?

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 14/12/2024

2024 has been a year of post-COVID sobriety. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 14/12/2024

It is entirely possible, when the population model for the national accounts is reconciled with the model for the estimated resident population (ERP), that the per capita recession has ended. Of course, we won't know that for another 12 months. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

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Mark Graph @mark-graph.bsky.social · 12/12/2024

Australia's total population is roughly back to trend post pandemic. Although, the civilian population aged 15+ exceeds the pre-pandemic trend, which suggests a lower birth rate and a higher migration rate have changed the compositional demography. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon