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Margarita Moreno-Betancur

@margaritamb.bsky.social
649 followers 424 following 44 posts

Professor of Biostatistics. University of Melbourne & Murdoch Children’s Research Institute. Research in causal inference and missing data methods + child, lifecourse and social epidemiology

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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
That would be great @pwgtennant.bsky.social! @bharrap.bsky.social re local courses: 1. My team delivers an intro causal course 2x/year-see "Observational studies" in tinyurl.com/causalmelb 2. Our annual ViCBiostat Summer School in Feb offers advanced causal courses, e.g. mediation (2027 program TBD)
mcri.edu.au
CEBU Research Methods courses - Murdoch Children's Research Institute
CEBU offers essential research methods courses, covering study design, biostatistics, and observational studies. Read more.
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Thank you! 😊
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Thrilled to taken on this role! 😊 I look forward to carrying on ViCBiostat’s key aim of fostering methodological research programs that are (1) embedded in, and thus underpinning the quality of, health research, and (2) central in developing expertise and biostats leadership
research.it
research.it
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
Woops, here is the corrected second one: doi.org/10.1093/ije/...
doi.org
Assumptions and analysis planning in studies with missing data in multiple variables: moving beyond the MCAR/MAR/MNAR classification
Abstract. Researchers faced with incomplete data are encouraged to consider whether their data are ‘missing completely at random’ (MCAR), ‘missing at rando
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
Hi both! Thanks for tagging me :) A couple from my team are: (1) doi.org/10.1093/aje/... (+ correction) (2) doi.org/10.1093/aje/... (perhaps more accessible) and (3) doi.org/10.1002/bimj... (perhaps more theoretical). We're also doing a virtual workshop for SER in Aug epiresearch.org/annual-meeti...
doi.org
Canonical Causal Diagrams to Guide the Treatment of Missing Data in Epidemiologic Studies
Abstract. With incomplete data, the “missing at random” (MAR) assumption is widely understood to enable unbiased estimation with appropriate methods. While
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ViCBiostat @vicbiostat.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
Summer school starts in less than a month - make sure you secure you spot soon! Course details and links to register can be found here 👇 www.vicbiostat.org.au/short-courses
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
Start the year well by registering for the ViCBiostat Summer School 😊 👉 www.trybooking.com/events/landi...
trybooking.com
ViCBiostat Summer School 2026
Welcome to the registration page for the 2026 Summer School courses. Full course descriptions can be found on our website:...
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
Yes, no recording I’m afraid
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
ViCBiostat Summer School: Register now below so you don’t miss out on e.g. Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen’s causal inference course covering a range of topics in “quasi-experimental” approaches: difference-in-differences, instrumental variables, synthetic controls etc. #EpiSky #CausalSky
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Rushani Wijesuriya @rush-099.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
Incredibly honoured to receive the Rising Star Award at MCRI Staff Awards ✨ Thank you to my mentors, especially @margaritamb.bsky.social for championing the nomination, and to colleagues and collaborators @mcri.bsky.social who nominated me. Grateful to be part of such a supportive community 💛
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
Registrations now open for the ViCBiostat Summer School - Feb 13-20, 2026 (Melbourne/online)! Features courses by local & international experts in causal inference, estimands, meta-analysis and cluster RCTs Info: www.vicbiostat.org.au/short-courses Register: www.trybooking.com/events/landi...
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ViCBiostat @vicbiostat.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
Mark your diaries! The ViCBiostat Summer School returns from 13-20 Feb 2026, in Melbourne and online. Courses include causal inference, cluster randomised trials, meta-analysis and the estimand framework. Further details TBA shortly - sign up to our mailing list at www.vicbiostat.org.au #statistics
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
@cebu-melbourne.bsky.social @vicbiostat.bsky.social @mcri.bsky.social @unimelb.bsky.social
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 01/10/2025
A few weeks ago I went to Canberra to receive the Moran Medal at the lovely Shine Dome of the Australian Academy of Science (@science.org.au). It was a huge honour, and wonderful to hear talks from all corners of science and to learn about the Academy's great work supporting science - pics below!
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
NEW PAPER!!! "Causal Machine Learning Methods and Use of Cross‐Fitting in Settings With High‐Dimensional Confounding" led by Susie Ellul, with Stijn Vansteelandt & John Carlin Published in Stats in Med Check it out 👇 onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/... #EpiSky #CausalSky
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Causal Machine Learning Methods and Use of Cross‐Fitting in Settings With High‐Dimensional Confounding
Observational epidemiological studies commonly seek to estimate the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. Adjustment for potential confounding bias in modern studies is challenging due to the p...
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
😄
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
Without getting into the Hume/Kant debate that Ivan raised above, if we focus on target trial emulations or actual trials, the estimand can indeed (though doesn't have to!) be defined as the effect in an ideal trial (per my other message, given the asymptotic result)
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
So specifying the components of the ideal trial (up to the contrasts) is an intuitive (but not necessary!) way of defining some causal estimands (but maybe not all of them!). And as I argue can help being clear about some things that are often forgotten in the math notation
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 11/09/2025
I am not sure what you think my premise is, but as I explain in the paper under asymptotic conditions the ACE defined using potential outcomes is mathematically equivalent to the effect in an ideal trial randomizing the target pop to the two interventions of interest
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
My take on the addendum estimands (from afar), is that the approach overlooks causal identification assumptions (step 2 in my Figure 1) and suggests some estimands that are not actually proper (mathematically defined) defensivle estimands - they are more “analysis approaches”, ie skip steps 1 and 2
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
My 2 cents to clarifying links between formal causal inference and target and actual trials: arxiv.org/abs/2405.10026 @timpmorris.bsky.social @idiaz.bsky.social
arxiv.org
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
@rush-099.bsky.social @cebu-melbourne.bsky.social @vicbiostat.bsky.social
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 10/09/2025
NEW PAPER! (in press in EPIDEMIOLOGY) Have you wondered: - How to specify a target trial: as an ideal trial or something else? - What biases do target trial emulations and actual RCTs share? - How does it all relate to potential outcomes? Read here! 👉 arxiv.org/abs/2405.10026 #EpiSky #CausalSky
arxiv.org
The ideal trial: defining causal estimands that balance relevance and feasibility in target trial emulations and actual randomized trials
Causal inference is the goal of randomized trials and many observational studies. The first step in a formal causal inference framework is to define the causal estimand, and in both types of study thi...
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hjhansford.bsky.social @hjhansford.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
🎯 TARGET Guideline published 🎉 TARGET is a reporting guideline for observational studies of interventions that use the target trial framework. Over 3 years the @TARGETGuideline was rigorously developed and was co-published today in @jama.com & @bmj.com doi.org/10.1001/jama.2025.13350 #episky
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
@ghazalehd.bsky.social @cebu-melbourne.bsky.social @vicbiostat.bsky.social
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
6/ And more: Impact of eliminating racial discrimination in reducing inequities in mental health and sleep problems among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children (tinyurl.com/5nej5vch)
tinyurl.com
To what extent could eliminating racial discrimination reduce inequities in mental health and sleep problems among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children? A causal mediation study
Targeted policy interventions that eliminate racial discrimination against Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children could have high potential to reduce inequities in mental health and sleep prob...
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
5/ Even more examples: Impact of potential interventions to reduce postnatal depression (tinyurl.com/3ej5mee4) and mid-life mental health disorders (tinyurl.com/yy8jbpwr) in those with a history of mental illness
tinyurl.com
Preventing postnatal depression: a causal mediation analysis of a 20-year preconception cohort | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Postnatal depression (PND) is common and predicts a range of adverse maternal and offspring outcomes. PND rates are highest among women with persistent mental health problems before pregnancy, and ant...
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
4/ More examples: Impact of potential interventions to reduce the heightened cancer risk in postmenopausal women with obesity (tinyurl.com/5b3kwjwk) and to reduce sex differences in melanoma cancer survival (tinyurl.com/57prtyr7)
tinyurl.com
Adiposity and breast, endometrial, and colorectal cancer risk in postmenopausal women: Quantification of the mediating effects of leptin, C‐reactive protein, fasting insulin, and estradiol
Background Mechanisms underlying the adiposity–cancer relationship are incompletely understood. We quantified the mediating roles of C-reactive protein (CRP), leptin, fasting insulin, and estradiol ...
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
3/ Examples: Impact of potential early childhood interventions to reduce socioeconomic disparities in children’s mental health (tinyurl.com/muttxx7j) and literacy skills (tinyurl.com/mvz8bxk8)
tinyurl.com
Addressing Child Mental Health Inequities Through Parental Mental Health and Preschool Attendance
BACKGROUND. Prevention is key to reducing socioeconomic inequities in children’s mental health problems, especially given limited availability and accessibility of services. We investigated the potent...
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
2/ The methodology uses interventional effects mapped to a “target trial” assessing the treatment strategies of interest, as proposed here tinyurl.com/yztb2hxs
tinyurl.com
Mediation effects that emulate a target randomised trial: Simulation-based evaluation of ill-defined interventions on multiple mediators - Margarita Moreno-Betancur, Paul Moran, Denise Becker, George ...
Many epidemiological questions concern potential interventions to alter the pathways presumed to mediate an association. For example, we consider a study that i...
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 10/07/2025
1/ NEW R PACKAGE! For estimating the impact of potential interventions on multiple mediators in countering exposure effects (led by @cttc101.bsky.social) - Paper👉 tinyurl.com/ye26jsps - Package👉 tinyurl.com/yuh4kens Thread shows published examples of how the method can be used! #EpiSky #CausalSky
tinyurl.com
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 02/07/2025
NOW PUBLISHED! Featured article + 6 Commentaries + Rejoinder: “On the Uses and Abuses of Regression Models: A Call for Reform of Statistical Practice and Teaching” with my colleague John Carlin tinyurl.com/2z2tmkhh @cebu-melbourne.bsky.social @vicbiostat.bsky.social #EpiSky #CausalSky #StatsSky
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Rejoinder to Commentaries on: On the Uses and Abuses of Regression Models: A Call for Reform of Statistical Practice and Teaching
Click on the article title to read more.
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Ghazaleh Dashti @ghazalehd.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
📢 New Commentary: We discuss how analytic choices impact interpretation of studies on socioeconomic health inequities. We review 1) descriptive analogues of causal estimands (à la Young et al) with competing events; 2) timescale choice; and 3) covariate adjustment. 👉 academic.oup.com/aje/advance-...
academic.oup.com
Invited commentary: Descriptive social epidemiology: putting the question before the methods
Abstract. In studies describing socioeconomic inequities in health outcomes, the choice of estimand and the planned analytic approach are central to the in
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Tong Chen @cttc101.bsky.social · 24/04/2025
Thrilled to share our new preprint on causal ML for mediation analysis! We introduce causal ML estimators for interventional effects explicitly mapped to target trials assessing hypothetical interventions inducing distinct shifts in joint mediator distributions📊 📈🧪 #CausalSky #EpiSky
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
Recording of my talk @causalab.bsky.social on using m-DAGs to guide the treatment of missing data now available 👇 #EpiSky #CausalSky
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
Looking forward to speaking at the CAUSALab methods seminar series next week! 👇
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
Thank youuuu 😊
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
Over the moon to have received the Moran Medal from the Australian Academy of Science!🥳 Amazing recognition, hopefully highlighting the key role of biostats & causal inference in high-quality research vimeo.com/1065735362 tinyurl.com/2m3dx2ms @cebu-melbourne.bsky.social @vicbiostat.bsky.social
vimeo.com
Professor Margarita Moreno-Betancur - Moran Medal 2025
This is "Professor Margarita Moreno-Betancur - Moran Medal 2025" by Australian Academy of Science on Vimeo, the home for high quality videos and the people…
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Peter Tennant @pwgtennant.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
This morning's #CIIG seminar with @margaritamb.bsky.social will be hosted from the Alan Turing Institute's 'Average Causal Effect (ACE)' room 😎 #CausalSky #EpiSky
Photograph of door with sign that says "ACE Zoom Room"
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Ghazaleh Dashti @ghazalehd.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
📣 📣NEW PAPER providing guidance on best practice for using multiple imputation when estimating interventional mediation effects, considering missingness mechanism, multiple imputation model specification, & variance estimation #CausalSky #EpiSky Read more 👇🏽 journals.lww.com/epidem/abstr...
journals.lww.com
Handling multivariable missing data in causal mediation... : Epidemiology
miologic studies. However, guidance is lacking on best practice for using multiple imputation when estimating interventional mediation effects, specifically regarding the role of missingness mechanism...
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
Looking forward to giving this talk! 👇😊
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
Thrilled to have received this funding for my causal inference research program - with my amazing team we shall continue to advance methods and provide expertise in this key area for another 5 years!!! 🥳☺️ #CausalSky #EpiSky
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 12/02/2025
Really happy with how this went! Our first missing data workshop completely grounded on the use of missingness DAGs (m-DAGs) to specify missingness assumptions 😀 #EpiSky #CausalSky
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Lachlan Cribb @lachcribb.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
New paper!! We find that prevalent exposure designs are very common in dementia research, explain why they are ill-suited for causal inference, and show how the target trial framework helps us move beyond them. Read here👇 www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
thelancet.com
Moving beyond the prevalent exposure design for causal inference in dementia research
As randomised trials are not always feasible or practical, observational studies remain crucial for addressing many causal questions in the dementia prevention field. Through a systematic search, we f...
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Ghazaleh Dashti @ghazalehd.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
NEW COMMENTARY in Epidemiology on causal estimands in studies of pre-diagnostic exposures and cancer survival #EpiSkye #CausalSky journals.lww.com/epidem/citat...
journals.lww.com
Pre-diagnostic exposures and cancer survival: Can a... : Epidemiology
An abstract is unavailable. This article is available as a PDF only.
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
Hi Nicole! Great idea. I’d love to be added to the list! Thanks
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 28/01/2025
NOW PUBLISHED! Correction to: “Canonical causal diagrams to guide the treatment of missing data in epidemiologic studies" doi.org/10.1093/aje/... Grateful to have had the opportunity to correct our paper translating missingness DAGs (m-DAGs) into epidemiological practice #CausalSky #EpiSky
doi.org
Correction to: “Canonical causal diagrams to guide the treatment of missing data in epidemiologic studies”
Moreno-Betancur et al.1 report and correct here errors in their article “Canonical causal diagrams to guide the treatment of missing data in epidemiologic
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Rushani Wijesuriya @rush-099.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
Hot off the press! 📣📣In this tutorial we illustrate available multiple imputation approaches for handling longitudinal data including when they are clustered within higher level clusters. A reproducible example with R and Stata code provided! #OpenAccess onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Multiple Imputation for Longitudinal Data: A Tutorial
Longitudinal studies are frequently used in medical research and involve collecting repeated measures on individuals over time. Observations from the same individual are invariably correlated and thu....
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
WORKSHOPS! On causal inference, missing data and SMARTs, part of the ViCBiostat Summer School (10-14 Feb, hybrid). For more details & registration visit: www.vicbiostat.org.au/short-courses #CausalSky #EpiSky
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Margarita Moreno-Betancur @margaritamb.bsky.social · 16/01/2025
Thank you and agree! Very glad to hear you found it educational, I did too in preparing it. Debates are a great format, hope we see more at conferences
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