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Marcus C Sarofim

@marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social
622 followers 75 following 167 posts

Climate scientist, ex-EPA. Writing climate science & policy at The Saraph Report. Saraph, my name's root, means fire, which is appropriate for climate work. Interested in books, food, and contra dancing when not obsessing over carbon.

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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Nice to see my substack get linked from the NY times (click "surprises"): www.nytimes.com/2026/09/22/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | Climate Catastrophe Is Still on the Table
Harrowing temperature increases remain unnervingly possible.
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Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 22/09/2026
NEW PAPER: In a new paper, jointly published in @agu.org Earth's Future & @ametsoc.org BAMS, and co-led by Melissa Kenney, @costasamaras.com and me, 175 authors outline priorities to guide the future of scientific assessments of climate change in the United States. 🧵
doi.org
Research Priorities for Robust Climate Assessments in the United States
A network of climate assessments plays a critical role in synthesizing the state of science to support evidence-based decision-making To support future U.S. and sub-national climate assessments, ...
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Hopkins gave me their 2026 Excellence in Teaching award for Climate Change Policy Analysis, an evening course I've taught on and off for 8 years, and wrote up a faculty profile to go with it. I appreciate the recognition, but the real reward is working with amazing students (sorry for the schmaltz)
advanced.jhu.edu
Marcus Sarofim: Fueling a Passion for Climate Science
Marcus Sarofim brings decades of experience to the Energy Policy and Climate program with deep expertise and a hopeful outlook.
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
EPA's new power plant rescission argues that the "air pollution" Congress addressed in 1970 didn't include climate. It quotes Senator Muskie's 1970 floor statement twice while skipping the sentence where he warns of "irreversible atmospheric and climatic changes." My first read of all 162 pages.
thesaraphreport.substack.com
Copy, Paste, Rescind.
My first look at the power plant rescission: aka, I read 162 pages so you don’t have to.
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
The US has failed to submit greenhouse gas inventories to the UNFCCC for two years running, unlike the other 42 Annex I Parties. New post on why emission inventories matter and who is producing the US numbers now that the EPA isn't. thesaraphreport.substack.com/p/lecture-3-...
thesaraphreport.substack.com
Lecture 3: The Carbon Economy, Part I: The United States
Why is measuring emissions so important?
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
The Trump Administration hates public comments, so keep doing it! I highlight coal ash, ship pollution discharge, roadless areas, and H-1B visa fees as comment opportunities for this month. thesaraphreport.substack.com/p/public-com...
thesaraphreport.substack.com
Public Comments Scare the Trump Administration
Six more proposals to submit short comments on
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
I had missed Sea Ice Today - glad to see it return!
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Climate.us @climate.us · 09/09/2026
Sea Ice Today is back! For nearly two decades, scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, or NSIDC, have helped people understand what is happening to sea ice in the Arctic and around Antarctica. Its monthly science analyses were paused last fall. buff.ly/e20zCU6
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
The Trump Administration is trying to "amend" NCA5. That's ridiculous. I explain why in my post. thesaraphreport.substack.com/p/the-rcp85-...
thesaraphreport.substack.com
The RCP8.5 Obsession Continues
The Trump Administration Tries to Monkey With NCA5
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
I've written some sf & fantasy book recommendations! (two are climate related to be on theme with the rest of my substack) thesaraphreport.substack.com/p/f-and-sf-r...
thesaraphreport.substack.com
F&SF Recommendations, and Cli-Fi Reviews
What to read for fun, what to read if you want climate in your fiction.
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Lecture 2 is an overview of how economics and the environment interact. I also made a widget to explore the Coase Theorem - please play with it and give me feedback! thesaraphreport.substack.com/p/lecture-2-...
thesaraphreport.substack.com
Lecture 2: The Economy and the Environment
How economists frame the pollution problem
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
Yet another chance for comment, this time on NSF guidance that is trying to create a backdoor to the horrible OMB rule from earlier this summer. thesaraphreport.substack.com/p/changes-in...
thesaraphreport.substack.com
Changes in Priorities
NSF wants the same ability to terminate grants that a federal court just rejected. Comments are due August 24th.
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
This is the first post in my class lecture series: thesaraphreport.substack.com/p/lecture-1-...
thesaraphreport.substack.com
Lecture 1: Introduction
The first post in a Climate Change Policy Analysis series based on my Johns Hopkins class
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Climate brink dropped another quality post on wildfires : substack.com/@thesaraphre...
substack.com
Marcus C Sarofim (@thesaraphreport)
The effects of climate on wildfires is becoming more and more obvious. The linkage between climate, wildfire smoke, and human health is likely to be one of the larger contributors to the monetized imp...
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
I recommend these three high quality books on climate and the environment that should give you cause for optimism: thesaraphreport.substack.com/p/the-optimi...
thesaraphreport.substack.com
The Optimism Shelf
Three climate books worth reading
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Alt National Park Service @altnps.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Meanwhile, the United States has already seen more than 4 million acres burn in 2026, with over 42,000 wildfires reported nationwide. #SaveUSFS
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
I’ve never been to Climate Week NYC: please tell me why I should or shouldn’t go this year
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Kate Marvel @drkatemarvel.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Fires depend on: ♨️ Weather ⚡ Ignition 🍂 Fuel 🧯 Suppression In North America: ♨️ Climate change = hotter and drier ⚡Ignition = no real change 🍂 Fire deficit = more fuel 🧯Warmer nights = suppression is hard What should we do? 📉 Cut emissions ✅ 🔥 Controlled burns ✅ 🍁 Rake more? ❌ 🇨🇦 Be mean to Canada ❌
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
Trump’s cut rate contractors apparently drove over and broke the recently renovated German American friendship memorial
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Today's post looks at Trump's push for coal in the context of OMB good governance guidance. open.substack.com/pub/thesarap...
open.substack.com
A Lump of Coal in America's Stocking
Owning the liberals with a side of grift
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
substack.com/@thesaraphre...
substack.com
Marcus C Sarofim (@thesaraphreport)
A useful explainer for those of us watching our skies fill with smoke. TL;DR - fire weather is increasing due to climate change. In California, historical fire suppression has also increased wildfire ...
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
I'm in the "comment on everything!" phase of my career - see my post for counts of comments on the last four proposed regulations, and five more regs waiting for new comments: open.substack.com/pub/thesarap...
open.substack.com
Comment like the planet depends on it
The public is stepping up, but we have more to do
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Good job everyone! Keep writing those comments!
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
My latest post is about feedbacks. The first half is a primer, then second half is new results from adding additional feedbacks to the FaIR model. open.substack.com/pub/thesarap...
open.substack.com
FaIR-Weather Feedbacks
Permafrost, Methane, and Dieback, Oh My — Implications of Adding New Feedbacks to Simple Climate Models
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Dr. Jonathan Foley @globalecoguy.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
What *actually* works — right here, right now — to address climate change? Here you go. This is the result of thousands of hours of painstaking research and analysis from the Project Drawdown team.
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Reminder that the deadline is tomorrow to comment on the OPM proposal to require NDAs from all government employees (substack.com/home/post/p-...) (along with the Post Office comment deadline of July 2nd, and the OMB politicizing science deadline on July 13th).
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
As a former EPA scientist, I found this interview very on point e360.yale.edu/features/tho...
e360.yale.edu
An EPA Researcher Details the Agency's Assault on Science
In January 2025, the Trump administration began shutting down projects within the EPA’s independent science division that touched on climate change and environmental justice. Air quality researcher Th...
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
The Trump Swamp - I decided to see this symbol of corruption and incompetence for myself.
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
Another opportunity for comment: the administration is trying to sell leases in Ohio's Wayne National Forest for fracking. See substack.com/home/post/p-... for details. Also, remember that the Trump Arch comment deadline is tonight. substack.com/home/post/p-...
substack.com
Comment Today to Save Ohio’s Only National Forest from Fracking
The Wayne grew back from a century of clear-cuts and furnace fires. Now Doug Burgum’s BLM wants to lease it to drillers, and a federal judge already blocked this exact plan once. We can win again.
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
See my latest post on comments you can make opposing proposed regulations from this administration on science funding, NDAs for civil servants, post office regulations on mail-in ballots, and the Trump Triumphal Arch. open.substack.com/pub/thesarap...
open.substack.com
Four public comments to file in the next month (one due Monday)
Please fight back against Trump Administration overreach
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Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 10/06/2026
Now all done but the synthesis! Thanks to the ~110 scientists and practitioners, not to mention @agu.org and our local volunteers, for a great three days in Montreal!
Attendees of the AGU Chapman conference on updating usable projections of future sea level, on the steps of the Musee Redpath, McGill University.
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The Weather & Climate Livestream @wclivestream.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
That's a wrap! - 50 hours of science + calling Congress - 300 letters given to Congress after a 250-mile walk We provided the templates and our viewers and supporters injected their voices. And like last year, we feel so uplifted by our community. Thank you for spending your time with us
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
I will be presenting on the Weather & Climate Livestream tomorrow (Wednesday) at 7:40 am (EST). My talk is about Certainties & Uncertainties, like my substack, but there will be new content! (see figure for an example) (some new content has not even finished being generated yet!) wclivestream.com
Two probability wheels: the one on the left ranges from 3 degrees to 7 degrees, with a 92% of being greater than 4.2 degrees C. The one on the right goes from <2 degrees to 6 degrees, with a 92% of being greater than 2 degrees and only 13% chance of being greater than 4 degrees C.
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
My new post updates my previous analysis, and also includes a grad school anecdote. open.substack.com/pub/thesarap...
open.substack.com
Simulations Revisited
This is what doing science looks like
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
The Death Star under construction by the Empire
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
Some challenges I encountered while using Claude (and some solutions) open.substack.com/pub/thesarap...
open.substack.com
The Sea Level That Dropped (and Other Claude Stories)
Why You Need to Know Your Stuff (and have good collaborators!)
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
My latest post has been weeks in the making, but is particularly timely because RCP8.5 has been in the news this week: open.substack.com/pub/thesarap...
open.substack.com
Certainties and Uncertainties
Revisiting and extending Sarofim et al. 2024. Also, I talk about RCP8.5
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
I wrote some more about COVID, but also about the value of per-capita adjustments when making maps: open.substack.com/pub/thesarap...
open.substack.com
COVID Part 2, or "More evidence for MAGA lethality"
Also Part 2 of my new series, "Context matters for data"
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
I have written a thing about geoengineering: open.substack.com/pub/thesarap...
open.substack.com
Hacking the Climate
Geoengineering: what is it, is it bad, and why are state legislatures banning it?
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
My second post on my Hill Visit, this one about specific bills supporting science in Congress. open.substack.com/pub/thesarap...
open.substack.com
Four Bills and a Hill Visit
Modest efforts to protect science
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Today I learned that UK grid operators need to plan for everyone turning on their electric tea kettles during halftime of major soccer matches…
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Yesterday I was introduced to www.britannica.com/games/loop - it now ranks up there with www.nytimes.com/games/connec... and www.theatlantic.com/games/bracke... as my favorite of the daily games.
britannica.com
The Loop, a daily picture puzzle game | Britannica
Everything is connected: Arrange the pictures in a circle so that all links make sense. You have five tries to get it right.
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
From www.nytimes.com/2026/04/30/c...: ""These places should not be penalized “due to foreign sources of emissions,” Lee Zeldin, the E.P.A. administrator, said on X." By that logic, California builders shouldn't be penalized with stricter building standards because of living in an earthquake zone.
nytimes.com
Smog in Phoenix and Salt Lake City? The E.P.A. Is Blaming Asia.
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AGU (American Geophysical Union) @agu.org · 27/04/2026
🌍 This #EarthDay, AGU scientists gathered on Capitol Hill to advocate for science workforce policies that drive progress. Their voices help shape stronger communities, innovation, and our planet’s future. Get involved: spklr.io/63324EKgSG @aguscipolicy.bsky.social
Congressional Visits Day at Capitol Hill.Congressional Visits Day at Capitol Hill.Congressional Visits Day at Capitol Hill.Congressional Visits Day at Capitol Hill.
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
The President's FY27 budget proposes the lowest funding for NASA, NSF, NOAA, and USGS in decades. If you have a Republican representative, or one on the House or Senate Appropriations Committee, please contact them to ask them to support science funding. open.substack.com/pub/thesarap...
open.substack.com
An Assault on Science
The Lowest Budgets in 30+ years… But it’s Actually Worse than That
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Kate Marvel @drkatemarvel.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
First they came for evolution Then they came for climate science Then they came for epidemiology Then they came for, like, really really basic math
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
Thank you Kate for reminding us we can do good things. May they be the harbingers of more good yet to come.
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
I wish that HR 7865 (giving tariff revenue directly back to citizens, rather than the importing businesses) was getting more traction. www.congress.gov/bill/119th-c... (much better than S 3905 which refunds importers and suggests they should pass on refunds to customers... yeah, that'll happen).
congress.gov
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
Remember: before causing the price of oil to skyrocket, the Trump administration sabotaged the Post Office's electrification initiatives. Stupidity magnifying stupidity. www.markey.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
markey.senate.gov
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Marcus C Sarofim @marcusmarcusrc.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
EDF has made the first formal, detailed objection to the EPA's Endangerment Finding repeal (that I am aware of) (as distinct from two lawsuits and counting, where briefs have yet not been submitted as far as I know): www.edf.org/media/health...
edf.org
Health, Environmental Groups Ask EPA to Reconsider Flawed, Unlawful Decision to Repeal the Endangerment Finding
16 health and environmental groups have filed a petition with the U.S. EPA outlining severe flaws in its rule to repeal the Endangerment Finding.
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