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Magnus Ross

@magnusar.bsky.social
76 followers 244 following 24 posts

Postdoc at UCL AI Center. Currently work on: forecasting, uncertainty quantification, antimicrobial resistance. Previously: Gaussian processes, physics informed ML, trading power. magnusross.github.io

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Magnus Ross @magnusar.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
In which I discuss some books I read last year magnusross.github.io/posts/2025-b...
magnusross.github.io
Books I read for fun in 2025 | Magnus Ross
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Robin Wigglesworth @robinwigglesworth.ft.com · 18/12/2025
It’s a big day for central banks around the world today, so naturally Alphaville is tackling the big topics — like whether Rishi Sunak got some cowboy boots as PM and how much they cost. www.ft.com/content/82d2...
ft.com
Could revealing Rishi Sunak’s cowboy boots ruin Brex-Tex relations?
There’s a Sunak in my boots!
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Magnus Ross @magnusar.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
🚨 New paper alert 🚨 Our latest work on using machine learning to help clinicians to switch patients from IV to oral antibiotics more efficiently: openreview.net/pdf?id=j8wsq...
openreview.net
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Magnus Ross @magnusar.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
I wrote about a crazy new LLM benchmark where the models are let loose on the crypto markets. Spoiler: sticking all in the prompt does not work that well in this case! magnusross.github.io/posts/nof1-a...
magnusross.github.io
Zero alpha | Magnus Ross
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Magnus Ross @magnusar.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
I wrote something about building systems people actually want as an academic in ML. It's pretty much an open letter to 6-months-ago me. magnusross.github.io/posts/moms-m...
magnusross.github.io
Moms, Models and Medicine | Magnus Ross
A good friend of mine is deep in the world of startups and spends a lot of his time doing idea validation—that is, trying to understand if there is a market for a given idea or product. Despite the fact that in the startup world success is eventually judged by sales or profits, whereas in ML4H it is more likely to be adoption by clinicians and, hopefully, an associated improvement in clinical outcomes, both rely on designing something that people actually want and will use. Therefore, I think many of the tools that help entrepreneurs validate ideas can be repurposed to help researchers undertake projects with real impact.
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FT Visual & Data Journalism @data.ft.com · 30/07/2025
The American guns turning Haiti’s gangs into an army on.ft.com/4lVGHFY
on.ft.com
The American guns turning Haiti’s gangs into an army
Weapons smuggled from Florida are empowering the country’s militias and enabling them to challenge a fragile government
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Magnus Ross @magnusar.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
Come to our seminar with @wessel.ai on "Foundation Models for the Earth System", it's going to be a cracker! It's open to non-UCL people also.
A promotional poster for a seminar about foundation models for the Earth system. The image contains a QR code with a link for more details
https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/ucl-ai-centre-seminar-wessel-bruinsma-microsoft-research-amsterdam-tickets-1399791095849?aff=oddtdtcreator
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Magnus Ross @magnusar.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
Good to get some recognition for my incessant posting of Ben's blogs in the Alphaville comments section!
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London CND @londonregioncnd.bsky.social · 07/07/2025
Take note of the legal advice from Amnesty International and more detailed information from @netpol.org below. CND supporters should be aware that point 4 could impact on how supporters refer to non-violent direct action.
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The Museum of English Rural Life (MERL) @themerl.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
ChatGPT is down but The Museum of English Rural Life still stands, proving once again that Silicon Valley cannot compete with the history of rural England and its people.
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Jim Waterson @jim.londoncentric.media · 04/06/2025
What news editors and politicians think people want: "Just tell them they'll get a tram somewhere in their city if they're nice." What people really want: "SHOW ME THE FULL GPS ROUTE PLAN COMPLETE WITH LINKS TO THE WIKIPEDIA PAGES OF THE DISUSED RAILWAY LINES THAT COULD COME BACK INTO USE."
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Kit Yates @kityates.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
Cancer Research UK today published a report which highlights changes in cancer survival rates over the last 50 years. Many headlines (like this one from the Guardian) have chosen to report the ‘doubling of cancer survival rates’ since the 1970s. But that's misleading... 1/18
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Paul Chang @mummitrollet.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
A new paper just dropped from Tri Dao(🐐)'s lab! arxiv.org/abs/2505.21487 Here is my hot take!
arxiv.org
Hardware-Efficient Attention for Fast Decoding
LLM decoding is bottlenecked for large batches and long contexts by loading the key-value (KV) cache from high-bandwidth memory, which inflates per-token latency, while the sequential nature of decodi...
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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
the inexplicable core of Starmerism, as a truly new formation in world politics, is seeing governance as wholly an extension of general election campaign messaging
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Wessel @wessel.ai · 21/05/2025
Big news!! 🚀 Aurora, a foundation model for the Earth system, has been published in @nature.com. A massive congrats to the whole team! Very proud of this achievement, and thrilled to see that it’s finally out there. 😊 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
A foundation model for the Earth system - Nature
Aurora, a new large-scale foundation model trained on more than one million hours of diverse geophysical data, outperforms operational forecasts in predicting air quality, ocean wave dynamics, tropica...
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Thorne 🌸 @ens0.me · 16/05/2025
Short write-up about how I got xAI to briefly add "white genocide" stuff back into Grok's system prompt. smol.news/p/the-utter-...
smol.news
The Utter Flimsiness of xAI’s Processes
xAI's was happy to put "white genocide" stuff back into Grok's system prompt without second thought.
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Michael Caley @michaelcaley.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
it's very odd watching the election news in the UK when Labour still has *years* left on their massive governing majority they can just ignore this stuff and create prosperity and get popular and what's particularly weird is that it's not just commentators it's Labour themselves that don't get it
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Magnus Ross @magnusar.bsky.social · 28/04/2025
You know you're in for a banger paper when the this is the first line of the abstract...
A screenshot of a paper on infectious diseases with the first line of the abstract highlighted. It reads "Like all fields of medicine, Infectious Diseases is rife with dogma that underpins much clinical practice."
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Quantian @quantian.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
Stealing from X for clout, but someone bought a staggering 25% of the *entire* open interest of a semiconductor ETF (which is 20% NVDA) in a single OTM put option yesterday and today. $3.7 billion of underlying stock, 8ish delta, $23 mil of premium, so levered 15:1 betting on the NVDA embargo news.
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Magnus Ross @magnusar.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
one for the debtors!
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Rob Hyndman @robjhyndman.com · 11/04/2025
A new Python edition of "Forecasting: Principles and Practice" is now available online at otexts.com/fpppy/. Thanks to @azulgarza.bsky.social, Cristian Challu, Max Mergenthaler, Kin Olivares & Nixtla for making this happen. #forecasting #python
otexts.com
Forecasting: Principles and Practice, the Pythonic Way
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Magnus Ross @magnusar.bsky.social · 31/03/2025
I just came across this paper from ICLR 2024 which proposes an intricate combination of transformers and diffusion models to generate forecasts with these uncertainty bounds (red box), which are clearly inappropriate and could likely be outperformed by modelling the data as a random walk...
A grid of plots of time series forecasts, the proposed model's forecasts are highlighted by a red box. The uncertainty estimates for the proposed model are constant over the forecast horizon and are poorly calibrated.
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Magnus Ross @magnusar.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
CUDA mode -> Triton mode
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Henry Farrell @himself.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
13. Third, that because this is a new _social_ technology, its uses involve human relationships mediated through technology. When someone uses ChatGPT to craft a resume, they are engaged via an LLM in a social relationship with all the other humans who wrote the resumes etc in training set ...
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Toby Nangle @tobyn.bsky.social · 13/03/2025
This blog on the North Korean Bybit hack — what they reckon is the largest heist of all time — is pretty cool www.elliptic.co/blog/bybit-h...
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Paul Chang @mummitrollet.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
Multi-Head Latent Attention vs Group Query Attention: We break down why MLA is a more expressive memory compression technique AND why naive implementations can backfire. Check it out!
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Luigi Acerbi @lacerbi.bsky.social · 06/03/2025
1/ Introducing ACE (Amortized Conditioning Engine)! Our new AISTATS 2025 paper presents a transformer framework that unifies tasks from image completion to BayesOpt & simulator-based inference under *one* probabilistic conditioning approach. It's Bayes all the way down!
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Dan Davies @dsquareddigest.bsky.social · 19/02/2025
auf 'stack, I return to regional policy and (piano dischord) economic geography. open.substack.com/pub/backofmi...
open.substack.com
ramsay's regional policy nightmares (slight return)
but reykjavik! but dallas! but tilbury!
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Ben Recht @beenwrekt.bsky.social · 14/02/2025
On why it’s time to remove the bias-variance tradeoff from machine learning 101.
argmin.net
Overfitting to theories of overfitting
On a plot that radicalized me like no other.
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wint @dril.bsky.social · 13/02/2025
My 100th birthday... in prison? - This is abuse.
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Vasileios Lampos @lampos.net · 14/02/2025
Life expectancy losses in the Gaza Strip during the period October, 2023, to September, 2024 TLDR: Life expectancy was reduced to half in the Gaza Strip area (of Palestine) compared to prewar levels Paper: www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...
thelancet.com
Life expectancy losses in the Gaza Strip during the period October, 2023, to September, 2024
Our approach to estimating life expectancy losses in this study is conservative as it ignores the indirect effect of the war on mortality. Even ignoring this indirect effect, results show that the ong...
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Henry Farrell @himself.bsky.social · 13/02/2025
Trump is weaponizing financial payments: here's what you can do. "Put more bluntly: the Trump administration is trying to turn private banks into enforcers ... If banks give in, it will be an enormous and dangerous step." www.programmablemutter.com/p/trump-is-w...
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Magnus Ross @magnusar.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
One of the guys from DOGE who's been let loose in the Treasury payments system wrote a book about using deep learning to predict the stock market. Over the weekend I wrote a short review of it. magnusross.github.io/posts/sparta...
magnusross.github.io
A Spartan's guide to trading | Magnus Ross
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Magnus Ross @magnusar.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
it's all in the eval...
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Magnus Ross @magnusar.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
Feat. a great article from @oc-econ.bsky.social, the thumbnail no less! Big stuff!
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Ben Recht @beenwrekt.bsky.social · 27/01/2025
Machine learning progresses when complicated breakthroughs are soon dramatically simplified as people figure out the salient parts. What a world we're in where this well-trodden pattern rocks financial markets and escalates geopolitical conflict.
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wint @dril.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
I'm not good at anything. I dont do anything. I dont know anything. But I know this: Certain forces are out of control
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Magnus Ross @magnusar.bsky.social · 03/12/2024
I wrote a slightly controversially titled blog post about benchmarking for time series models. Often the benchmarks don't align with real world problems, which I think is slowing progress! magnusross.github.io/posts/tsf_benchmarks/
magnusross.github.io
Time series benchmarks are broken | Magnus Ross
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Nicolas Beltran-Velez @velezbeltran.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
I am very excited to share our new Neurips 2024 paper + package, Treeffuser! 🌳 We combine gradient-boosted trees with diffusion models for fast, flexible probabilistic predictions and well-calibrated uncertainty. paper: arxiv.org/abs/2406.07658 repo: github.com/blei-lab/tre... 🧵(1/8)
Samples y | x from Treeffuser vs. true densities, for multiple values of x under three different scenarios. Treeffuser captures arbitrarily complex conditional distributions that vary with x.
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Magnus Ross @magnusar.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
I've also made a feed similar to the AI papers one, but for papers about time series/forecasting bsky.app/profile/did:...
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Magnus Ross @magnusar.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
I made a feed for posts about GPs, for anyone who is still into that. One day that bathwater will get thrown back out! bsky.app/profile/did:...
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