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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

If Arsenal actually want Rodrygo and he has no fitness/health issues that could put the investment at risk, I am very confident that they would go to £300kpw. The club’s attitude to paying Kai demonstrates that.

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

Different players have different structures. They don’t all have the same base and then same bonuses on top. Saka was on £70kpw and his agent was pushing for x4 his wage. Those are hard deals to do. They compromised on a 4-yr rather than 5-yr deal with heavy incentives. Many have minimal bonuses

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

He is. With bonuses, he is closer to £300kpw right now.

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

Agents literally show up knowing what their clients could be paid in the market with detailed, structured proposals. And clubs do the same.

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

Clubs don’t tend to factor that in anymore. Ego driven negotiations haven’t been a thing for a while. It’s all done on market benchmarking or sometimes strategic valuation (as KdB did). It’s why after their renewals, it’s likely that Ethan and Myles will be on higher wages than Timber or Calafiori.

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

Two main reasons are: 1) Difference in club levels being moved (West Ham to Arsenal vs Chelsea to Arsenal compared with Madrid to Arsenal) 2) Difference in salary % bump (Declan was on under £80kpw pre move and almost never does anyone more than triple their salary with a move)

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

Kai is the better baseline.

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

I am. £275kpw would have been my expectation on his contract. £300kpw is very bridgeable with structure. This is starting to feel like a ploy actually aimed at Nico’s camp - encouraging them to back down on their (absurd) wage demands.

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

I still don’t know what your point is

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Orbinho @orbinho.bsky.social · 21/04/2025

Arsenal have conceded fewer goals from open play than any other team this season in the Premier League. 15 Arsenal 23 Liverpool 25 Bournemouth 27 Chelsea 29 Man Utd #ARSCRY

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

2025 feels like a good year to win the UCL.

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 28/11/2024

The Christian way of throwing shade?

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

I soothed my pain with copious amounts of red wine and le roast boeuf the day after.

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

2025 feels like a good year to win the UCL.

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

Just noticed you’re barely using it! No wonder I have been missing my digest of Arsenal facts.

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

Brave enough to put that on twitter too? 😂

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

⚽️⚖️ 𝗣𝗟 𝘃 𝗠𝗮𝗻 𝗖𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝟭𝟯𝟬 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘀 - 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗽𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁 𝗱𝗼𝗰𝘂𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗴𝘂𝗶𝗹𝘁 📊 An explainer of some of the evidence against Man City. open.substack.com/pub/themagic...

open.substack.com

⚽️⚖️ 𝗣𝗟 𝘃 𝗠𝗮𝗻 𝗖𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝟭𝟯𝟬 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘀 - 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿𝗽𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁 𝗱𝗼𝗰𝘂𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗴𝘂𝗶𝗹𝘁 📊

People asked for an explainer on this document, so here it is!

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

Well… you may have blinked and missed it but Arsenal fans certainly did not. It felt like a lifetime.

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

Anyone else excited for a couple of seasons of Arsenal v Liverpool for the title? After 35 years, I am!

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

Yes. Odegaard for creativity through the middle and RHS. Timber for creativity on RHS linking with Saka and Odegaard given White has had a bad knee. Calafiori to resolve the dysfunction on LHS and bring creativity there. Why do you think Arteta keeps buying fullbacks?

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

Thanks. Doubt they’ve been told anything. Suspect it is playing on their mind regardless.

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

The below was mostly without Ø, Timber at RB, Calafiori at LB. The 3 keys to our creativity. All 3 come back in and Arsenal go wallop the most in-form team in Europe 5-1 away from home. It’s good Liverpool got a big headstart. It will make the league more interesting. Credit @markstats.club

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

A significant portion, yes. And they will be. Evidence too overwhelming for the majority of the charges not to be sustained.

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

Welcome. And you are correct. They cannot appeal to CAS. They could appeal to another PL Indep Appeal Commission and almost certainly will. After that, there is very little grounds for an appeal. Would most likely only work with a Judicial Review which is rare and unlikely.

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

Might take a few months to write up the decision

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

Fraudulent financial reporting. Not defrauding for financial gain.

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

Impressive! Does the CIES data look broadly right to you?

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

@scott.cannonstats.com I think I’ve seen you post transfer fee analysis in the past that factors in inflation. If so, you use CIES as a source for rate of inflation in fees (see below) or something else? football-observatory.com/Inflation-in...

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Chris Weatherspoon @cweatherspoon.bsky.social · 24/11/2024

The rise of EPL international TV rights ⚽️ 1992-97: £8m p/a ⚽️ 1997-2001: £25m (⬆️ 213%) ⚽️ 2001-04: £59m (136%) ⚽️ 2004-07: £108m (83%) ⚽️ 2007-10: £208m (93%) ⚽️ 2010-13: £480m (131%) ⚽️ 2013-16: £743m (55%) ⚽️ 2016-19: £1.0bn (39%) ⚽️ 2019-22: £1.3bn (29%) ⚽️ 2022-25: £1.7bn (26%) ⚽️ 2025-28: £2.4bn (41%)

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 24/11/2024

🥰 That’s wonderful! What football is all about. Enjoy 🙂

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 23/11/2024

Overall, sure. 3 a season. But on his new trademark long-range screamers? I don’t see it. Saw some stats last season about it - will try to dig them out on X - but he was outperforming xG on his long range shooting by some absurd number. Shots in box was underperformance.

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 23/11/2024

His xG over-performance was incredible but unsustainable. This is not a surprise.

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 23/11/2024

That contract extension really gave them the boost they needed 😂

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Simon Collings @srcollings.bsky.social · 23/11/2024

Arteta talked about the build-up to this game and says it was the first time in weeks they could train with 19 players.

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Magic hat @magic-hat.bsky.social · 23/11/2024

That would be silly. Opportunity cost

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