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Michael Allen

@ma-allen.com
553 followers 1.8K following 159 posts

IR Scholar Professor• War, US Foreign Policy, Basing, Troop Deployments, Data, and Political Economy • @boisestate • International Relations • SciFi • Gaming • www.ma-allen.com • tinyurl.com/GoogleScholarAllen

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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 31/08/2026
It's a good one. The North American Championship just finished a few hours ago!
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 29/08/2026
I fixed the bsky share function; it will show your team now!
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 29/08/2026
Ack, I need to change the way it shares. Fixing now.
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 29/08/2026
The LCQ qualifying players are now available to be drafted! #lorcana #lorcanafantasy databorn.ink/fantasy/
databorn.ink
Fantasy Lorcana
Draft five competitors from an upcoming Lorcana tournament under a 100-point salary cap. Share your team and get scored on how your picks actually finish.
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 15/07/2026
It was a pleasure to write a chapter for “The Three Body Problem and International Relations.”
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 05/06/2026
Wake up…(au:JimKB)
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 03/06/2026
This week’s pulls.
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 26/05/2026
Wait a minute, Galaxy Quest is basically the same story as the Three Amigos… I wonder if the Three Amigos holds up, I haven’t seen it in over three decades.
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Michael Flynn @flynnpolsci.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
@carlammm.bsky.social, @ma-allen.com, and I wrote another piece for the Conversation where we talk about President Trump’s threats to withdraw more personnel from Germany and how deployments and basing go beyond allied defense. theconversation.com/why-trumps-c...
theconversation.com
Why Trump’s call to pull 5,000 US troops from Germany will hurt America
Overseas US military bases are integral to combat operations and can burnish the country’s image to advance its foreign policy goals.
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 29/04/2026
Writing a bit about the high rate of stockpile consumption in Iran: theconversation.com/can-the-near...
theconversation.com
Can the nearly $1 trillion-a-year US military really be depleting key weapons in Iran?
Measuring US weapons stockpiles sheds light on future constraints and what Russia and China may learn from the Iran war.
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 22/04/2026
NATO’s internal cohesion is being threatened (again) – but in pushing for support on Iran, Trump may risk eroding US influence on the alliance Written by: Michael A. Allen, Boise State University; Carla Martinez Machain, University at Buffalo, and Michael E. Flynn, Kansas State University Soon…
quantitativepeace.com
NATO’s internal cohesion is being threatened (again) – but in pushing for support on Iran, Trump may risk eroding US influence on the alliance
Written by: Michael A. Allen, Boise State University; Carla Martinez Machain, University at Buffalo, and Michael E. Flynn, Kansas State University Soon after the Israeli-U.S. war in Iran began on Feb. 28, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump called upon NATO allies to help support the effort. The response of European leaders was at first mixed. Some, like the United Kingdom, offering limited or qualified support.
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Michael Flynn @flynnpolsci.bsky.social · 21/04/2026
@carlammm.bsky.social @ma-allen.com and I wrote a new piece for The Conversation on Iran, NATO, and how the current conflict might affect the future of the alliance and US influence. theconversation.com/natos-intern...
theconversation.com
NATO’s internal cohesion is being threatened (again) – but in pushing for support on Iran, Trump may risk eroding US influence on the alliance
NATO members have been divided before. But the war in Iran could prove particularly troublesome for an alliance founded at the beginning of the Cold War.
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 21/04/2026
NATO’s internal cohesion is being threatened (again) – but in pushing for support on Iran, Trump may risk eroding US influence on the alliance: theconversation.com/natos-intern...
theconversation.com
NATO’s internal cohesion is being threatened (again) – but in pushing for support on Iran, Trump may risk eroding US influence on the alliance
NATO members have been divided before. But the war in Iran could prove particularly troublesome for an alliance founded at the beginning of the Cold War.
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 20/04/2026
This better not awaken anything inside of me.
youtube.com
The Cleverlys perform "Gangnam Style"
The Cleverlys perform a bluegrass cover of "Gangnam Style" live on Larry's Country Diner Season 10! Want to listen to Country's Family Reunion and Larry's Country Diner music wherever you go? Check…
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 14/04/2026
If you encounter any issues, let me know. The landing page (which will be updated with future tools) is here: ma-allen.com/lorcana/ (7/7)
ma-allen.com
Lorcana Tools by Zubrin
Meta calculator, Swiss tournament simulator, replay analyzer, performance analyzer, and local event finder.
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 14/04/2026
Deck swap (ma-allen.com/lorcana/chan...): post two lists and know what you need to cut/add to change your deck. Also, post two different lists to figure out what cards you need to swap from deck to deck if you have only a playset of each card (thanks, purple). (6/7)
ma-allen.com
Lorcana Deck Change Calculator
Paste two decklists and instantly see the cards to cut and add to transition between them.
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 14/04/2026
Detailed performance analysis (ma-allen.com/lorcana/anal...): get very detailed stats about your duels play and find out what is working and what is not. Includes session feedback and how card changes may or may not matter. (5/7)
ma-allen.com
Duels.ink Analyzer
Analyze your Lorcana performance from Duels.ink game history exports.
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 14/04/2026
Opponent deck scout (ma-allen.com/lorcana/repl...): upload your CSVs from duels to get a count of cards publicly revealed by your opponent. Also, some stats from your play. (4/7)
ma-allen.com
Opponent Deck Scout — Duels.ink Replay Analyzer
Upload Duels.ink replays to identify your opponent's deck and cards. Great for BO3 set selection and sideboard prep.
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 14/04/2026
Swiss calculator (ma-allen.com/lorcana/swiss/): simulate what is needed to make a top cut based on assumptions of draws, both intentional and unintentional. (3/7)
ma-allen.com
Lorcana Swiss Tournament Simulator
Monte Carlo simulator for Disney Lorcana Swiss tournament outcomes. Estimate point distributions, tiebreakers, ID safety, and Day 2 qualification odds.
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 14/04/2026
Meta Calculator (ma-allen.com/lorcana/calc...): pulls data from duels, lorcanito, and inkdecks to show win rates (otp/otd for the digital sites), estimate the best deck given an imputed meta expectation, and simulate a tournament from your results. (2/7)
ma-allen.com
Lorcana Meta Calculator
Live win rates and EV calculator for every deck in the Lorcana meta. Data from Duels.ink, Lorcanito, and InkDecks.
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 14/04/2026
A suite of Lorcana tools for competitive play: ma-allen.com/lorcana/ (1/7) #lorcana #lorcanatcg
ma-allen.com
Lorcana Tools by Zubrin
Meta calculator, Swiss tournament simulator, replay analyzer, performance analyzer, and local event finder.
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Reposted by Michael Allen
The Quantitative Peace @quantitativepeace.com · 13/04/2026
Bradley–Terry Models and Pairwise Comparisons in brms Whew—it's been a minute since I've written a blog post. But I recently published a paper that seemed like it would lend itself nicely to a new post, so here we are! Before I move on I'll note that this is an abbreviated version of a longer post…
quantitativepeace.com
Bradley–Terry Models and Pairwise Comparisons in brms
Whew—it's been a minute since I've written a blog post. But I recently published a paper that seemed like it would lend itself nicely to a new post, so here we are! Before I move on I'll note that this is an abbreviated version of a longer post from my personal blog. You can read the full post here. If you really want to dig into the code and the resulting figures I'd suggest going over there to see it.
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 13/04/2026
Bradley–Terry Models and Pairwise Comparisons in brms Whew—it's been a minute since I've written a blog post. But I recently published a paper that seemed like it would lend itself nicely to a new post, so here we are! Before I move on I'll note that this is an abbreviated version of a longer post…
quantitativepeace.com
Bradley–Terry Models and Pairwise Comparisons in brms
Whew—it's been a minute since I've written a blog post. But I recently published a paper that seemed like it would lend itself nicely to a new post, so here we are! Before I move on I'll note that this is an abbreviated version of a longer post from my personal blog. You can read the full post here. If you really want to dig into the code and the resulting figures I'd suggest going over there to see it.
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 10/04/2026
This week's reading list.
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 09/04/2026
"Wars usually end when the fighting nations agree on their relative strength, and wars usually begin when fighting nations disagree on their relative strength." - Blainey 1988.
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 05/04/2026
This week’s planned comic reads:
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 30/03/2026
I saw a C-17 land at Gowen on Friday while I was shopping, and it looks like the A-10s are going to Lakenheath (where we toured/interviewed for our research), then to the Middle East to join Epic Fury: www.twz.com/news-feature...
twz.com
Dozens Of A-10 Warthogs Appear Poised To Join Epic Fury
The deployment of additional Warthogs comes amid increasing signs a ground operation on Iranian soil could come soon. The attack jets would provide additional firepower for a range of operations…
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 26/03/2026
I'm not going to burn through my Claude quota this week. It can't handle plumbing for me.
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 23/03/2026
This is a great sadness. Let’s get back to 7 seasons with 22 episodes and give times for characters to actually develop. variety.com/2026/tv/news...
variety.com
‘Star Trek: Starfleet Academy’ to End With Season 2 (EXCLUSIVE)
"Star Trek: Starfleet Academy" will end with its upcoming second season, Variety has learned exclusively.
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 23/03/2026
Sitting on the tarmac in Chicago. Soon #isa2026, I will be there…
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 21/03/2026
Straits of Malacca, Hormuz, and Gibraltar. This tracks.
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 21/03/2026
I get in too late, but definitely encourage anyone who can make this to go. Expand the network.
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 21/03/2026
Great, now I am going on a date with Claude.
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 21/03/2026
Dr. Hiriluk’s final scene in s2e7 hits so well. The whole episode was a rollercoaster.
youtu.be
The Most Powerful Speech in One Piece (You Won’t Forget This) | ONE PIECE: Season 2) | Netflix
“When do you think a man dies? When he is shot through the heart by a bullet? No. When he is ravaged by an incurable disease? No. When he drinks a soup made from a poisonous mushroom? No! A…
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 21/03/2026
At times, I feel like I don't understand how things work. This is a day and a half's worth of global oil consumption, but the goal may be to decrease any domestic pressure by altering global prices. We have (had) 415m in the SPR, so this is about a third of that. www.nytimes.com/2026/03/20/w...
nytimes.com
U.S. Lifts Sanctions on Some Iranian Oil to Get More to Market
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Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 20/03/2026
Publication day! Check out my chapter on how to measure restrictions on civil society in the new Innovations in Human Rights book (edited by @kellyzvobgo.bsky.social and Francesca Parente) #PoliSky #PoliSciSky - Preprint: stats.andrewheiss.com/purple-parrot/ - Book: www.e-elgar.com/shop/usd/inn...
Measuring Repression through Restrictions on Civil Society

On December 29, 2011, Egyptian security forces raided the offices of several international NGOs, leading to a year-long public trial in absentia for the NGO staff involved. In June 2013, 43 NGO employees were convicted of operating unregistered organizations and accepting illegal foreign funding, with prison sentences ranging from one to five years (Loveluck, 2013). While these organizations had technically violated Egypt’s Law 84 of 2002, which required specific registration guidelines and limited foreign funding, they had worked with tacit state approval for much of the decade preceding the Arab Uprisings (Amnesty International, 2013). However, as the post-revolutionary military regime faced growing domestic pressures throughout 2011, the state decided to enforce the long-dormant regulations and shut down the NGOs.

This anti-NGO raid and subsequent trial in Cairo are part of a growing global phenomenon of closing civic space (Carothers & Brechenmacher, 2014; Chaudhry, 2022; Chaudhry & Heiss, 2022a; Dupuy et al., 2021), where states use bureaucratic regulations to repress civil society while avoiding international criticism typically associated with violent human rights abuses. In this chapter, I explore how administrative crackdown presents unique measurement challenges for human rights researchers and suggest ways to address them, informed by my past and ongoing research.
What is civil society and why do states repress it?

The first challenge in quantifying and measuring civil society repression is defining civil society itself. “Civil society” can be defined broadly as “the arena of uncoerced collective action around shared interests, purposes, and values” (Howell et al., 2008, p. 91), and includes both formal and informalCover for Innovations in Human Rights: Concepts, Data, and Measurement
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American Political Science Review @apsrjournal.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
From our FirstView article: Hidden Majoritarianism and Women’s Career Progression in Proportional Representation Systems DANIEL M. SMITH, @AliCirone.bsky.social, @teele.bsky.social, GARY W. COX and JON H. FIVA. doi.org/10.1017/S000...
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 20/03/2026
No Starfleet Academy tonight, so One Piece s2 is my current fill-in now. What if the Federation was just some rubber kid who thought the Venrai Ral had cool flags?
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 19/03/2026
Nampa is the 3rd-largest city in Idaho and is just outside Boise. At one point, I was going to Nampa weekly for card tournaments. Hogaboam was a town hall and was 47. idahonews.com/news/local/n...
idahonews.com
Nampa Mayor Rick Hogaboam dies after medical emergency
Nampa Mayor Rick Hogaboam has died after experiencing a medical emergency Wednesday night, according to a statement from his office.The statement asked the comm
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 19/03/2026
Some people can imagine.
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 19/03/2026
Trolley problem: More participants selected the utilitarian choice, to save five by killing one, when using the foreign language than their native tongue (Table 2). The difference between the foreign and the native language condition ranged from 7.5 percentage points to 65 percentage points.
journals.plos.org
Your Morals Depend on Language
Should you sacrifice one man to save five? Whatever your answer, it should not depend on whether you were asked the question in your native language or a foreign tongue so long as you understood the p...
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 19/03/2026
Hey, they said, "could."
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 19/03/2026
YYYY-MM-DD is three things in a cell! I agree with the order though. :)
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 19/03/2026
Ooh, I love some counterintuitive, experimental findings.
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Michael Flynn @flynnpolsci.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
We're in the process of (trying at least) to rebuild QP and do some more regular blogging. @michaelallen.bsky.social set up a bsky account for the blog, which you can find below.
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Michael Flynn @flynnpolsci.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Venezuela seemed to "work" because there appeared to be months of behind the scenes talks paving the way and a somewhat cooperative successor. I suspect they, somehow, thought Iran would go as smoothly for reasons unknown. But truly stunning to see this talk as the Iran conflict spirals.
nytimes.com
Trump’s Next Target: ‘Taking Cuba’
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 19/03/2026
Thank you for sharing. I need to write about this.
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 19/03/2026
When your ally is a frenemy.
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Michael Allen @ma-allen.com · 19/03/2026
With bottlecaps.
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Yamil Ricardo Velez @yamilrvelez.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
New paper with Stephanie Zonszein! Political news is more important than ever, but local papers are shuttering across the US. In recent years, innovative community-centered outlets led by journalists have taken to WhatsApp and social media to reach groups such as immigrants. What are their effects?
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