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Matt Luongo

@luongomatt.bsky.social
86 followers 112 following 14 posts

Climate Scientist & Oceanographer ☀️🌬️🌊 CICOES Postdoc at UW | Scripps Ocean PhD Seattle, WA

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Reposted by Matt Luongo
Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 16/09/2026
All the September dynamical ENSO models (including SINTEX) are now in, and they give a 100% chance of a record event this year using the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) metric:
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Matt Luongo @luongomatt.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Of course, still need to understand why GCM ensembles seem to miss this sort of internal variability!!
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Matt Luongo @luongomatt.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Importantly, we need to look into the Pacific subsurface to really understand fingerprints of internal variability on tropical temperatures. IMO Fig. 4 is a smoking gun, though. Seems like we swung right into a PDO/IPO/TPDV cycle right as we got satellite measurements of SST.
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Matt Luongo @luongomatt.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
We override surface wind stress in two GCMs with reanalysis winds and find a critical role for trade wind acceleration in recent EEP cooling.
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Matt Luongo @luongomatt.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Hiatus v2?? Check it out! Our recent work, led by Shang-Ping Xie & Ayumu Miyamoto, suggests that internal variability has strongly influenced satellite-era (~1980-present) tropical Pacific SST trends. www.pnas.org/doi/full/10....
pnas.org
PNAS
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), a peer reviewed journal of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) - an authoritative source of high-impact, original research that broadly spans...
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Matt Luongo @luongomatt.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Important work (led by my partner!!) on bringing marine oxygen into the conversation of what constitutes a safe space for society in a changing earth system
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Reposted by Matt Luongo
Lily Dove @solilyquy.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
I'm proud to announce a commentary from the Phenomena, Observations, and Synthesis panel of @usclivar.bsky.social about the necessity of the Argo program. 🌊 🧪 You can check it out here: doi.org/10.5670/ocea...
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Matt Luongo @luongomatt.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Potentially interesting implications for subtropical forcing of the tropics! Great work by Cassia and fun collaboration with Anna-Lena Deppenmeier, LuAnne Thompson, & Billy Kessler.
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Matt Luongo @luongomatt.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
We compare the CESM2 large-ensemble and an atm-reanalysis-forced ocn-only simulation to show that biased winds artificially increase potential vorticity in the SH eastern Pac. This blocks interior flow from the SH and diverts it to the WBCs, overall reducing the SH influence on the Eq. thermocline.
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Matt Luongo @luongomatt.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
You may have heard of GCMs' double ITCZ bias, but how does this atmospheric phenomenon affect near-surface ocean circulation in models' equatorial Pacific? In a recent #GRL paper led by UW graduate student Cassia Cai, we explore just that. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Double‐ITCZ Bias Reduces Southern Hemisphere Influence on Tropics via Oceanic Pathways
In forced ocean models and in nature, much of the equatorial thermocline water comes from the Southern Hemisphere interior ocean The double-ITCZ bias in climate models erroneously intensifies oce...
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Matt Luongo @luongomatt.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Very fun and rewarding project at UW CICOES with co-authors Shang-Ping Xie, Ian Eisenman, Shantong Sun, & Kyle Armour.
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Matt Luongo @luongomatt.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
We can explain 1958-2020 quite well by understanding the ocean's quasi-steady response to climate change forcing. 1979-2020 (the satellite era)? A completely different story. This suggests the importance of internal variability over this period. How does that then project onto SSTs? Open Q.
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Matt Luongo @luongomatt.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
We show that model large ensembles and observational products largely agree on the 1958-2020 subsurface temperature response of the equatorial thermocline-- then we use a model hierarchy to linearly partition that response into some basic dynamics!
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Matt Luongo @luongomatt.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Interested in understanding how the subsurface tropical Pacific has responded to GHG forcing? Interested in understanding whether models and observations agree on that response? Check out our recent paper in @jgroceans.bsky.social! agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Explaining the Equatorial Pacific Thermocline Response to Climate Change With a Model Hierarchy
Climate models can largely recreate observed equatorial Pacific subsurface temperature trends from 1958 to 2020 The observed subsurface temperature change is due to wind changes, remote sea surfa...
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Reposted by Matt Luongo
Kris Karnauskas @oceansclimatecu.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
The latest multi-model El Niño forecast just came out from the IRI and... wow. The ensemble mean of the dynamical models would basically make a tie for the all-time strongest El Niño based on the satellite (OIv2) and instrumental (HadISST) records.
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Reposted by Matt Luongo
Scripps Institution of Oceanography @scrippsocean.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Scripps Oceanography climate scientist Shang-Ping Xie is one of 3 @ucsandiego.bsky.social professors elected to membership in @nationalacademies.org of Sciences! The honor recognizes researchers whose original scientific contributions continue to shape & advance their fields. bit.ly/4d73MCb
Shang-Ping Xie with Scripps Pier in the background
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Reposted by Matt Luongo
Cristi Proistosescu @cristiproist.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Most of my career has been in area of climate science called "the pattern effect". Work over the last decade (including my own) has led to a simple paradigm for the mechanisms of the pattern effect. In this new preprint, we argue this paradigm is woefully insufficient arxiv.org/abs/2603.24488 1/
arxiv.org
The forgotten role of wave dynamics in modulating the low cloud response to warm pool warming
The Pattern Effect describes the dependence of top-of-atmosphere radiation anomalies on changes in the pattern of sea surface temperatures. The emerging consensus in the field explains the impact of P...
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Reposted by Matt Luongo
Eos @eos.org · 27/01/2026
NCAR represents what is possible when a nation chooses to invest in science as a public good, writes @carlonimbus.bsky.social of @ucs.org. #SaveNCAR eos.org/opinions/wha...
eos.org
What Americans Lose If Their National Center for Atmospheric Research Is Dismantled - Eos
Five ways dismantling NCAR will cost the American people, and two ways to save it.
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Matt Luongo @luongomatt.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
We find i) models do a pretty good job in recreating the long-term response, ii) that long-term response is a linear combo of decadal Bjerknes-like dynamics, remote-SST-driven dynamics, and local-SST-driven dynamics, and iii) we cannot use this understanding to explain the satellite era.
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Matt Luongo @luongomatt.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
Check out our new preprint! We explain the equatorial Pacific thermocline's temperature response to climate change using a smorgasbord of modeling simulations. eartharxiv.org/repository/v...
eartharxiv.org
Explaining the Equatorial Pacific Thermocline Response to Climate Change with a Model Hierarchy
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Reposted by Matt Luongo
Andrew Dessler @andrewdessler.com · 02/09/2025
Our 400+ page comment on the DOE climate working group report is now out. Our conclusion: The merchants of doubt are back, and they're coming for climate science.
sites.google.com
DOEresponseSite
On July 29, 2025, the Department of Energy (DOE) published a report from its Climate Working Group (CWG). This report features prominently in the EPA's reconsideration of its 2009 Endangerment Finding. In response, over 85 scientists have come together to write a comprehensive review, which is
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