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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

There was a by election and general election in the same year.

Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Wider context to the Holborn result: this chart shows the proportion of Labour’s 2024 vote going to different parties. Post Gorton over 1 in 10 Labour 24 voters were going to the Greens - that number has more than halved as Labour’s retention improved, particularly on the left.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Obviously not helped by the fact he is in self imposed exile. But Holborn was George Galloway’s worst ever result in a Westminster election.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Seems surprising more Conservatives didn’t tactically vote Labour given this was clearly a two horse race (though maybe many did vs locals). Obviously this wasn’t a race that was about the battle for the right but the Tories will be pleased to have come third, and continue to do better in London.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Compared to the local elections in May, where Greens/CPA had a pact the Labour vote is up and the Green vote is down. Right vote and Liberal Democrat vote down.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

This perhaps captures how Greens momentum has dipped. The swing to the Greens in Holborn was less than half that in Gorton and Denton at 13% and if you were to include Feinstein voters in the Green column the swing is just 4.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

3000+ majority for Labour, comfortable and a sign of Burnham’s gains on the left. Labour vote barely drops. Green vote significantly up from 2024, but less impressive if you assume lots of Feinstein 2024 voters went to the Greens. Bad result for the Greens but not at worst end

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Reposted by Luke Tryl

Sunder Katwala (sundersays) @sundersays.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Kemi Badenoch wants a left-right argument about the economy. She sees an opportunity on identity "against the identity politics of the left and the right" to oppose ethno-nationalism on the right, with a conservative case for high expectations on integration that migrants + minorities can pass

Badenoch says she hopes it too will be referenced, half a century from now, as a guide to her governing philosophy. Her core argument is for a smaller state: spending cuts, reduced deficits and tax cuts. But her support for the pension "triple lock" and calls for higher spending on defence and more prisons capture the electoral difficulty of sticking to a case for a smaller state.

Tory strategists believe they have more chance of emerging as Labour's primary opponent if the focus of British politics moves away from identity and immigration to a left versus right argument on the economy.

Badenoch's pamphlet offers a new triangulation "against the identity politics of the left and the right" to oppose a rising fashion of ethno-nationalism on the right, while making a conservative case for high expectations on integration that it should be possible for migrants and ethnic minorities to pass.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Think that’s the toughest I’ve seen Tory leadership on Reform since their emergence as a serious political force, directly taking on claims about Englishness and identity from some Reform politicians. Feels a significant change in approach.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Burnham has a large lead on preferred Prime Minister. 30% name Burnham as their preferred PM, compared to 22% for “none of them”, 15% for Badenoch, and 14% for Farage.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Burnham’s gross approval has reached a record, at 43%, with 27% disapproving. Badenoch is at 33% followed by Farage at 28%, Davey at 19%, Polanski at 16%, and Lowe at 15%. This is the largest gap between Badenoch’s personal approval ratings, and Conservative poll ratings, we have recorded.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Burnham receives a 5 point boost to his approval ratings to +16, Badenoch rises by two +2, Ed Davey is down two to -10, Lowe falls by 4 to hit a low of -15, Nigel Farage is steady at -24 and Polanski falls 4 to -28.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Labour has hit their highest since Burnham became PM, and are now more than ten points higher than their trough under Keir Starmer. Burnham is squeezing the left, as the Liberal Democrats also fall to their joint lowest this parliament. Most field work pre Tory conference.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

In our latest voting intention, Labour hit 29% their highest since 2024, Reform move to 2nd & Greens fall to lowest since August 2025 🌹 LAB 29% (+2) ⏩ REF 24% (+3) 🌳 CON 21% (-1) 🔶 LIB DEM 10% (-1) 🟢 GREEN 7% (-2) ⚫ RES: 4% (-2) N 2,088 | Dates 3-5/10 | Change w 29/09

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Reposted by Luke Tryl

Will Jennings📉🗳️ @drjennings.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

As during the 2019-24 period, it is worth keeping in mind *where* focus groups are sampled from. 2024 Labour voters *should* be positive about the party/PM - even if they have drifted away since the election... this sort of discussion should only partially reassure Labour.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Challenge for Tory conference in one graph. This year has seen the Tory leader significantly improve her public perception - having trailed last year Badenoch is now much more popular than her party. But Tory voting intention is only v.marginally up. Can she drag up that navy blue line?

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Overall, it's clear the PM has had a compelling start, is rebuilding Labour's coalition and he has earned his party a rehearing. But it would be complacent to assume the battle for public opinion is done and the PM will have to move into salesman mode in the Autumn.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

On Europe again the group agreed with the PM's central argument that Brexit hadn't worked and for most if we could go back in on 2016 terms they'd jump at it. The worries however were that we'd get a bad deal and that made more of the group nervous

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Paul Johnson's argument the lock won't pay for care elicited real resistance. Despite this being a group of Labour voters none were prepared to pay more tax for social care and felt too squeezed already and there were worries about the Budget (though there was openness on a hypothecated defence tax)

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

It made me think the battle for public opinion on this isn't over - presented on Burnham's terms people buy the need for reform, but if it's defined by opponents the mood shifts.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

But, the caveat is that after the initial discussion when the group were played a clip of Sharon Graham opposing changing the triple lock the mood shifted and some became concerned that this was "taking off from pensioners".

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

What about the policy. On reform triple lock for care, the group bought the PMs argument. But the 'why' was really interesting - the earnings lock to them was the least important part because they all felt that wages hadn't risen by more than inflation in a long time, so it wouldn't matter

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

The group contrasted Burnham with his predecessor, who they felt was "just a shambles" and no one felt that replacing Starmer with Burnham had been a mistake and they were now willing to at least give Labour a second chance

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

The big thing that jumped out from the group was reliability, a sense that Burnham 'got it' and his speech, particularly the display of emotion talking about the death of his father made him seem like a different politician.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

🧵On Thursday eve we held a focus group of 2024 Labour voters many of whom had become disillusioned under Starmer to find out how Burnham's speech had gone down. Have written it for @theguardian.com it was the most positive feedback for a politician in a long time www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

It’s interesting that through Burnham’s premiership so far, his ‘good job’ figures have remained stable, so dip from his high net score is due to growing ‘bad job’.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Burnham leads comfortably in gross approval (39%), followed by Badenoch (32%), Farage (27%), Davey (21%), Polanski (17%) and then Lowe (17%).

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Burnham’s approvals tick up slightly to +11. Kemi Badenoch’s is net neutral on 0 ahead of her conference, Ed Davey slips to -8, Rupert Lowe rises to -11 (though these two are less well known), Farage and Polanski both rise three to -24.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Note: fieldwork was pre-PM speech but Labour lead the pack for 10th week in a row and in fact enjoy their biggest poll lead since we resumed voting intention polling after the General Election. The Tories and Reform continue in a close fight for second.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

In this week’s voting intention, Labour's lead widens as Reform fall to their lowest in over 18 months. 🌹 LAB 27% (+1) 🌳 CON 22% (-1) ⏩ REF 21% (-1) 🔶 LIB DEM 11% (-) 🟢 GREEN 9% (+1) ⚫ RES: 6% (-) 🟡 SNP 3% (+1) ⚪️ OTH 1% (-) N = 2,041 | Fieldwork 25-29/9 | Changes w 18/09

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Overall, Burnham has managed to prove that he understands public exhaustion and wants to make a difference. The next challenge in coming months - and budget - is putting that into action

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Labour will face pressure to clarify its migration policy. Britons aren’t sure what Burnham actually thinks about migration, and views are split on whether he wants to raise, lower or hold migration steady.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The Budget will be a key moment for the “can” test - Brits want the gov’t to combine bold action with fiscal responsibility. The public as a whole would rather government prioritise economic stability and reducing the deficit over radically transforming economy or borrowing to invest.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

And on a personal level, most of what the public consider to be Burnham’s weaknesses aren’t character but competence/decisionmaking - ‘people pleaser’ tops the list

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

And Burnham still has a hill to climb in rebuilding public trust on the most salient issues: Brits still distrust the gov’t across the board - and while there’s been an improvement on cost of living, public scepticism on migration remains.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

There's been a vibe shift under Burnham, but the public now wants substance. Voters welcome him being more visible and present than Starmer, who many felt hid behind prepared lines - but some are already asking where the money is coming from.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Britons want to combine immediate relief with a long-term plan. Going beyond short-term cost of living interventions (which are essential for ‘gets it’ and ‘trying’!) and showing the government can address root causes of cost of living crisis

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Thirdly, the ‘can’ test - and the one where Burnham is still on probation for the public. while Brits think Burnham gets it and is trying, doubts remain over whether he can deliver. Most say he's likeable, but fewer say competent (44 per cent) or in control (42 per cent).

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Burnham's opening salvo has been highly popular and demonstrated “trying”. Unlike Keir Starmer's unpopular early policies, his cost of living interventions - above all the £2 bus fare cap, heard of by four in five Britons - have been popular and well publicised.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Second, the 'trying' test: for many, the key difference between Burnham and Starmer is one of trying. Asked to describe him in a word, 'trying' is among the most common answers, alongside 'good', 'useless' and 'don't know'.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

First, the 'gets it' test: Andy Burnham is seen as in touch. Britons say his greatest strengths are communicating well and being in touch with ordinary people. People often contrast this with Starmer in focus groups.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

From our polling+focus groups there are 3 key tests any government must pass to restore public trust: do they get it? Are they trying? And can they deliver real change? Burnham has passed two of the three tests that Keir Starmer failed.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

🧵Ahead of Burnham’s speech our latest research looks at the state of Labour and the 3 tests by which public will judge this gov’t. Burnham’s earned his party a rehearing, but has yet to detoxify Labour brand. Only ½ of those who think Burnham is doing a good job would vote Lab

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Wonder if the shift to main fiscal event being in Autumn not Spring has made Party Conference a bit of a nightmare for governing parties. Given Budget is weeks away speculation ends up dominating, but you can't answer lots of it so look either evasive or unable to answer big Qs

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Yup I’ve said repeatedly I think it would be a bad idea on current numbers. And the pod is in response to him ruling it out.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Special edition of The Opinion Brief podcast from Labour conference. What does our MRP say about the Burnham bounce, a snap election, fragmentation and the battle for the right? Listen below linktr.ee/OpinionBrief...

linktr.ee

The Opinion Brief Podcast Official: Instagram, X | Linktree

The essential weekly update on what the British public thinks and why. A fresh politics podcast brought to you by More in Common UK and Luke Tryl.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Meanwhile the 'Green surge' ebbs. The Greens are projected to win three seats - Brighton Pavilion, Bristol Central, and Gorton and Denton - down seven from July. Labour's gains in vote share have come heavily at the Greens' expense, and they are second in 40 of the seats Labour wins.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

The Battle for the Right is on a knife's edge. Just 1 in 96 Reform voters would need to change their minds for the Conservatives to retain the official opposition title. A 1 per cent swing from Reform to the Conservatives would leave the Conservatives on 167 to Reform's 101.

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Luke Tryl @luketryl.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

This is the fourth consecutive model where the Tory seat count has risen - tripling from a low of 41 in September 2025. Many of their seats are marginal - losing them could drop them to double digits; winning marginal seats could boost them to 183.

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