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Lucian Kim

@luciankim.bsky.social
1K followers 83 following 330 posts

Senior Ukraine Analyst @crisisgroup.org, former correspondent based in Berlin and Moscow, author of @columbiaup.bsky.social book on why Russia invaded Ukraine, soon in paperback. Rarely seen on social media.

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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Calling all Ukrainian scholars under fire: Here is an excellent opportunity to conduct research in Washington, DC. Hurry, deadline is October 1. www.petrachprogram.org/2027-spring-...
petrachprogram.org
Spring 2027 Fellowship – Petrach Program on Ukraine
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
The political crisis means that Zelensky is finding it increasingly hard to attract people to his team. Everyone in government faces intense scrutiny from NABU, and with so many intractable problems, the chances you’ll be blamed (and fired) are high.
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
One popular conspiracy theory holds that the anti-corruption agency NABU, created with help of FBI, is being used by US to pressure Zelensky. But I met no one who doubts the accusations are true, and many see NABU as an important check on executive while elections are impossible.
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Zelensky is facing nonstop political turmoil, beginning with his chaotic government reshuffle in July and new anti-corruption accusations against key members of his team. Zelensky is still widely recognized as Ukraine’s wartime leader—but his authority is weakened.
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Russia’s new jet-powered drones are too fast to shoot down with conventional interceptors, and constant air raid alarms wreak havoc on daily life: schools, work, shopping, traffic, mental health. It will cost precious time before Ukraine can come up with adequate countermeasures.
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Everyone is dreading the winter as Russia widens its air campaign against Ukraine’s already battered economy. Ports, logistics, energy infrastructure, locomotives, filling stations are all targets. One friend said: “This is only September. What will happen in winter?”
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Just returned from Ukraine. As if grinding Russian attacks on the battlefield weren’t enough, much of the attention has now shifted to the home front. Here are a few of the main takeaways from my trip:
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Just returned from Ukraine. As if grinding Russian attacks on the battlefield weren’t enough, much of the attention has now shifted to the home front. Here are a few of the main takeaways from my trip:
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Singing in the dark in Kyiv.
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Having written a book called “Putin’s Revenge” and spent last night under Russian attack, I wonder if bombing Kyiv is in part Putin’s answer to NATO’s bombing of Belgrade—like South Ossetia was his Kosovo, Wagner his Blackwater and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine his Iraq.
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Heading back to Kyiv. Renewed US attention to ending the Ukraine war is encouraging, but the bilateral relationship is in trouble. Key figures who found time for Ukraine have departed White House, Pentagon, State Dept. this summer...
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
"An eerie quiet descends on the last cities of free Donbas, broken only by the sound of drones and glide bombs." @kyivindependent.com pulls back the curtain on the people and places bearing the brunt of Russia's invasion. kyivindependent.com/life-in-ukra...
kyivindependent.com
Life in Ukraine’s last Donbas strongholds as Russia closes in — Watch Video At The Kyiv Independent
What is life like for Ukrainians in Donbas as invading Russian forces inch closer? In this report, the Kyiv Independent's Francis Farrell and Olena Zashko travel across Donetsk Oblast to document life...
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
"We return to base before the evening glide bombs arrive." Another harrowing report from inside Ukraine's kill zone by @kyivindependent.com. I found it painful to watch as it's from Dobropillia, the hometown of a close friend. But don't look away, watch it. kyivindependent.com/unable-to-ta...
kyivindependent.com
Unable to take Dobropillia, Russia is burning it to the ground — Watch Video At The Kyiv Independent
The Kyiv Independent’s Francis Farrell and Olena Zashko embed with the 15th Brigade of Ukraine’s National Guard, also known as Kara Dag, part of the 1st Azov Corps, joining an FPV drone team living an...
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
The frantic round of musical chairs unleashed by Zelensky's government reshuffle continues: -After weeks of speculation, Ukraine's ambassador in Washington goes; -Umerov now moves to foreign intelligence; -Fedorov still without a chair. TBC www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/202...
pravda.com.ua
Zelenskyy dismisses Stefanishyna as Ukraine's ambassador to US
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has dismissed Olha Stefanishyna from her post as Ukraine's ambassador to the United States.
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
Russia in a nutshell: The speaker of the Duma closes the current legislative session with a chant of "Russia! Putin! Victory!" His fellow lawmakers generate the obligatory applause—but do not join in. www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAB5...
youtube.com
Володин пытается заставить депутатов скандировать «Россия! Путин! Победа!»
YouTube video by Meduza News
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 27/07/2026
"There is growing demand for realistic assessment of Russia's geopolitical capabilities, competent domestic decision-making and achievable war goals," Tatiana Stanovaya says. "This is dangerous for regime precisely because it is neither anti-war nor anti-Putin." carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
carnegieendowment.org
Russia Is Approaching a Political Crossroads
Two divergent trends—Putin’s hardline vision of how to prosecute the war in Ukraine, and a growing desire for change in Russia—could tear the regime apart.
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 23/07/2026
Zelensky faces serious risks. Fedorov is associated with Ukraine's new momentum on the battlefield, and if Ukraine faces new setbacks, Zelensky will carry the blame. At the same time, he has created a potential new domestic rival out of his ex-minister. www.crisisgroup.org/anb/europe/u...
crisisgroup.org
Ukraine’s Tensions on Show after Zelenskyy Reshuffles His War Leaders | International Crisis Group
Crisis Group expert Lucian Kim assesses the reasons behind the dismissal of the defence minister and armed forces chief, and what this bodes for the war with Russia.
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Zelensky appears to have wriggled out of a political crisis of his own making by firing Oleksandr Syrskyi as commander of Ukraine's armed forces and replacing him with well-regarded Mykhailo Drapatyi. www.president.gov.ua/en/news/ya-v...
president.gov.ua
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Hard to say how Fedorov's dismissal will affect Ukraine's military strategy, but risks are clear. Fedorov is associated with Ukraine's new momentum in middle and deep drone strikes. If that initiative is lost, Ukraine will face setbacks—and blame will fall squarely on Zelensky.
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
By reshuffling his government, Zelensky made a most fateful decision. His firing of the popular defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, has brought long simmering tensions out into the open. It has led to a political crisis that will be hard to defuse.
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
How to understand the sudden collapse of Ukraine's government? @pravda.ua pieces together clues: -After Yermak's departure, balance of power has shifted; -Zelensky is tired of "babysitting" Svyrydenko government, wants PM to take more responsibility; www.pravda.com.ua/articles/202...
pravda.com.ua
Зеленський міняє уряд: відставка Свириденко, Корецький у Кабміні, інтрига навколо Федорова
У неділю, 12 липня, сталося те, до чого на Банковій готувалися вже кілька тижнів, але чого мало хто очікував саме зараз.
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
"'What's the point of going to fight for something that is already gone?" Poignant piece of reporting by @asamiterajima.bsky.social amplifying the voices of Ukraine's newest recruits—reluctant, resigned and afraid. kyivindependent.com/inside-the-u...
kyivindependent.com
Inside the Ukrainian military's fight to motivate new recruits
KHARKIV OBLAST — New recruits walk into a small, overcrowded log-framed tent, taking their place in the line for lunch to fuel up for the long day of training ahead. The line ends at two large steamin...
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Sober analysis cautions Ukraine has 3-4 months to reap benefit from mid-strike campaign: -MoD to contract 100K mid-strike drones this year; -20 best units allowed to order drones directly from producers; -MoD to order another 100K drones from foreigners. www.pravda.com.ua/articles/202...
pravda.com.ua
З небес на землю. Як Україна використовує та водночас марнує літо можливостей на фронті
У квітні цього року УП випадково дізналася, що один із потужних корпусів Сил оборони, "Азов", отримав партію "Хорнетів".
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
If recent NATO summits were exercises in frustration for Ukraine, Zelensky managed to flip the script in Ankara, holding a warm, often jocular meeting with Trump that contrasted with their clash in the Oval Office a year and a half ago:
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
"What will save us? Music, love, mutual respect, humanity," a Ukrainian soldier says in the Donbas kill zone. Report after report, Francis Farrell and his @kyivindependent.com colleagues bring back the most compelling journalism from Ukraine's front lines: www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXYb...
youtube.com
On the last road to front-line Kostiantynivka as Russian troops enter the city
YouTube video by Kyiv Independent
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
"What will save us? Music, love, mutual respect, humanity," a Ukrainian soldier says in the Donbas kill zone. Report after report, Francis Farrell and his @kyivindependent.com colleagues bring back the most compelling journalism from Ukraine's front lines: www.youtube.com/watch?v=DXYb...
youtube.com
On the last road to front-line Kostiantynivka as Russian troops enter the city
YouTube video by Kyiv Independent
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Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her) @olyaoliker.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
On my last visit to Kyiv, @luciankim.bsky.social & I were struck by a somewhat different tone among Ukrainians. New developments have made many of those we met with cautiously optimistic, even as they expect war to continue, & substantial challenges also remain. We lay out what we learned here:
crisisgroup.org
A New Tone and Better Cards in Kyiv | International Crisis Group
After four-plus years of war, Ukraine aims to show it can inflict more pain than Russia is willing to absorb to achieve the Kremlin’s objectives. Ukrainians increasingly believe that this goal is atta...
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
What is war? You look out of your front window one morning and everything is destroyed. Kyiv today. meduza.io/feature/2026...
meduza.io
Война. 1560-й день. Удар по Киеву и Днепру. Погибли 22 человека. Россия впервые применила сразу восемь гиперзвуковых ракет «Циркон» — Meduza
«Медуза» с 24 февраля 2022 года в прямом эфире рассказывает о российско-украинской войне. Мы ежедневно публикуем ваши письма, потому что уверены: о войне нужно продолжать говорить. Поделитесь с нами м...
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
"Like Dorian Gray, the Russian capital is putting on an attractive public face while the political regime ossifies behind the Kremlin walls." Moscow's transformation is real—it's just that there's much more than meets the eye. That was obvious 10 years ago: berlinpolicyjournal.com/potemkin-vil...
berlinpolicyjournal.com
Potemkin Village - Berlin Policy Journal - Blog
Moscow has had an expensive makeover while the regime ossifies.
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
"Like Dorian Gray, the Russian capital is putting on an attractive public face while the political regime ossifies behind the Kremlin walls." Moscow's transformation is real—it's just that there's much more than meets the eye. That was obvious 10 years ago: berlinpolicyjournal.com/potemkin-vil...
berlinpolicyjournal.com
Potemkin Village - Berlin Policy Journal - Blog
Moscow has had an expensive makeover while the regime ossifies.
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
I'm old enough to have reported on Russia's "gas wars" with Ukraine. I couldn't have imagined then that one day Russia would physically attack Ukraine by sending soldiers through natural gas pipelines. kyivindependent.com/battle-for-p...
kyivindependent.com
How Ukraine defends Kupiansk from Russian troops crawling through pipes
KHARKIV OBLAST — The longest a Russian soldier can hope to survive for after emerging from the underground pipeline is, according to those hunting them, one single hour. "But it's usually 10 minutes,...
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
I'm old enough to have reported on Russia's "gas wars" with Ukraine. I couldn't have imagined then that one day Russia would physically attack Ukraine by sending soldiers through natural gas pipelines. kyivindependent.com/battle-for-p...
kyivindependent.com
How Ukraine defends Kupiansk from Russian troops crawling through pipes
KHARKIV OBLAST — The longest a Russian soldier can hope to survive for after emerging from the underground pipeline is, according to those hunting them, one single hour. "But it's usually 10 minutes,...
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 21/05/2026
How convenient that Hungary blocks Ukraine—convenient for a long list of EU countries that are at loggerheads with Ukraine over agriculture, industry, trade, even history. Reality check: Ukraine may not be ready for EU, but EU is hardly ready for Ukraine. kyivindependent.com/hungary-doub...
kyivindependent.com
Hungary doubles down on Orban-era ban of Ukrainian agriculture
"We will not allow Ukrainian or any other imported product to endanger the livelihood of Hungarian farmers and the supply of healthy food to the Hungarian people," said the country's agriculture minis...
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
Let's just say Xi is feeling pretty chuffed. Putin less so.
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
When I first visited Kaliningrad in 2000, a Baltic Sea Fleet officer boasted to me about friendly visits from NATO warships. Now the tiny Russian outpost is at the crux of European security. This excellent report by @crisisgroup.org colleagues explains why: www.crisisgroup.org/qna/europe/r...
crisisgroup.org
Kaliningrad and the Suwalki Gap: Conflicting Threat Perceptions in the Baltic Sea Region | International Crisis Group
Both Russian and NATO member state militaries are shoring up defences near the Russian region of Kaliningrad. But as Crisis Group experts explain in this Q&A, the build-ups and other actions could exa...
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 19/05/2026
Thanks to @janecoaston.bsky.social for her interview with me on the mood in Kyiv, Putin's plan and the prospects for peace. Watch @crooked.com's "What A Day" podcast here: youtu.be/dfOUTJEwRTg?...
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
Just back from Kyiv. The mood was the least pessimistic I've felt in the last couple of years. Spring weather helps after a brutal winter of Russian strikes on energy infrastructure. Here are a few takeaways on where Ukraine stands right now:
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 10/05/2026
Thanks to @ngumenyuk.bsky.social for reading my book, Putin's Revenge, through a Ukrainian lens and interrogating me on US politicians' abiding awe of Russia, European pacifism, Russian imperialism and the future of Ukraine and Russia. youtu.be/8fSTgNf33c4?...
youtu.be
Putin is obsessed with Ukraine. His mission is to bring it back under Russia’s control | Lucian Kim
YouTube video by Public Interest Journalism Lab
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
Every time I come to Ukraine, people asks me how the war ends, as if I were some kind of oracle. What I can say for sure is that sometimes it’s useful to take a step back for perspective:
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
Transatlantic relations today: EU delegation in Washington celebrates USA's 250th birthday with appeal to "shared ideas"—not interests, values, goals, vision.
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Go to the edge of Ukraine's kill zone and watch a heavy bomber drone team go about their grim work—thanks to Francis Farrell and colleagues @kyivindependent.com. www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKgU...
youtube.com
How Ukraine is pushing back Russia with bomber drones
YouTube video by Kyiv Independent
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H-Diplo with the Jervis Forum @h-diplo.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
Jervis Forum Review 177: Nychyk on Kim, Putin’s Revenge Putin’s Revenge: Why Russia Invaded Ukraine by Lucian Kim is an exciting complement to the emerging literature on Russia's war against Ukraine, which started in 2014 and escalated into a full-scale invasion in 2022.[1] The book’s main goal is…
issforum.org
Jervis Forum Review 177: Nychyk on Kim, Putin’s Revenge
Putin’s Revenge: Why Russia Invaded Ukraine by Lucian Kim is an exciting complement to the emerging literature on Russia's war against Ukraine, which started in 2014 and escalated into a full-scale invasion in 2022.[1] The book’s main goal is to explain how Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, whose actions were shaped by Russia’s internal political environment and key international events, evolved into a brutal dictator and ultimately decided to launch the largest war in Europe since the end of the World War II.
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
An unpleasant truth is mentioned in Lithuania's latest national security threat report, namely that Russia can't become a military threat to the Baltics (or the rest of Europe) as long as its bogged down in Ukraine. www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-e...
lrt.lt
Lithuanian intelligence says Russia won’t threaten NATO while Ukraine war continues
Lithuania’s intelligence services say the country’s security is closely linked to the course of Russia’s war against Ukr...
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
"A friend and I were heading to the store when a drone caught sight of us and dropped a bomb." Francis Farrell reports from inside the town where the term "human safari" was coined. kyivindependent.com/postcards-fr...
kyivindependent.com
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Thanks to @kevinrothrock.me for quizzing me about my book on the origins of the Ukraine war: -How do you get into Putin's head? -Why was there no full-scale invasion in 2014? -Did Putin kidnap Yanukovych? -Is there hope for Russia's younger generation?👇 meduza.io/en/episodes/...
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
“It’s like when you are stabbed with a knife and you aren’t supposed to take the knife out. That is now, a silent time; the knife is still in and the bleeding will come later.” Five Ukrainian men tell how war changed them forever. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/f...
theguardian.com
‘I wondered if I would be a coward or not’: five Ukrainian men on how war has changed them
Russia’s invasion forced Ukrainian men of all ages to the frontlines, most with no experience of combat. Tracy McVeigh spoke to five soldiers about how life in the army transformed them and their rela...
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
Stop complaining about how horrible this winter has been. In Ukraine people are struggling to stay warm indoors. Free link: www.nytimes.com/2026/02/10/w...
nytimes.com
Russia Knocked Out the Heat. So She Slept in a Tent on Her Bed.
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 04/02/2026
"Constructive and productive" is the new "deeply concerned."
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Lucian Kim @luciankim.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
Recently I received two photographs from the Donbas—one from the Russian-occupied part, the other from the corner still under Ukrainian control. The stories they tell are revealing:
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Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 28/01/2026
NEW COMMENTARY | Amid Ukraine’s Battlefield Struggles, Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Domestic Legacy Is a Work in Progress @luciankim.bsky.social explores how Zelenskyy has navigated political challenges at home and how he should lay the groundwork for Ukraine’s future. www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/europe-c...
crisisgroup.org
Amid Ukraine’s Battlefield Struggles, Zelenskyy’s Domestic Legacy is a Work in Progress | International Crisis Group
Since Russia’s all-out invasion in 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has met domestic political and governance challenges even under fire. But the country’s political truce will not last f...
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