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Joe

@ltsmash420.bsky.social
110 followers 59 following 13 posts
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Reposted by Joe
Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : 12 SEP - 25 SEP, 2026 QUÉBEC MODÉRÉ [stable] Environ 1 personne sur 180 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections : 3.0 x🔺 -COVID longue : 2.9 x🔺 -Hospitalisations : 3.3 x🔺 -Décès : 3.0 x🔺
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : 12 SEP - 25 SEP, 2026 CANADA MODÉRÉ [stable] Environ 1 personne sur 158 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections : 3.9 x🔺 -COVID longue : 2.9 x🔺 -Hospitalisations : 4.2 x🔺 -Décès : 3.9 x🔺
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Bonjour à tous. Notre modèle de prévision a besoin de quelques réglages pour le moment, ce qui nous empêche de le partager cette semaine. La prochaine prévision sera disponible dans deux semaines et nous reprendrons notre calendrier habituel.
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Hello everyone, the forecast model needs more work at this time. That means we have to cancel this week's release. The next forecast will be available in two weeks and we'll resume our usual schedule.
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : 18 JUL - 31 JUL, 2026 QUÉBEC MODÉRÉ [stable] Environ 1 personne sur 255 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections : 2.6 x🔺 -COVID longue : 4.8 x🔺 -Hospitalisations : 2.7 x🔺 -Décès : 1.8 x🔺
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Cette semaine au Canada, il est prévu que les infections entraînent 670 hospitalisations, 91 décès prématurés (personnes qui meurent au moins un an plus tôt qu’elles ne l’auraient fait sans la COVID-19) et …
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Cette semaine, environ 2,0 % de la population canadienne est infectée par la COVID ou souffre de la COVID longue limitant leurs activités quotidiennes. Cette semaine au Canada, le coût estimé des hospitalisations dues aux infections est de 14,7 millions de dollars.
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : 18 JUL - 31 JUL, 2026 SÉVÈRE : aucun TRÈS ÉLEVÉ : aucun ÉLEVÉ : aucun MODÉRÉ : CAN, AB, CB, MB, TNL, Nord, NÉ, ON, ÎPÉ, QC, SK Environ 1 personne sur 287 est actuellement infectée au Canada.
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : 18 JUL - 31 JUL, 2026 CANADA MODÉRÉ [stable] Environ 1 personne sur 287 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections : 2.4 x🔺 -COVID longue : 4.5 x🔺 -Hospitalisations : 2.6 x🔺 -Décès : 2.0 x🔺
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : 20 JUN - 3 JUL, 2026 QUÉBEC MODÉRÉ [en baisse] Environ 1 personne sur 261 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections : 2.7 x🔺 -COVID longue : 4.9 x🔺 -Hospitalisations : 2.7 x🔺 -Décès : 1.8 x🔺
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : 20 JUN - 3 JUL, 2026 CANADA MODÉRÉ [en baisse] Environ 1 personne sur 320 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections : 4.0 x🔺 -COVID longue : 4.6 x🔺 -Hospitalisations : 2.6 x🔺 -Décès : 2.0 x🔺
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : 6 JUN - 19 JUN, 2026 QUÉBEC MODÉRÉ [en baisse] Environ 1 personne sur 250 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections : 3.4 x🔺 -COVID longue : 5.1 x🔺 -Hospitalisations : 2.9 x🔺 -Décès : 1.8 x🔺
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Reposted by Joe
Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
Canadian COVID Forecast Jun 6 - Jun 19, 2026 CANADA MODERATE [decreasing] About 1 of every 345 people is infected. Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections: 4.4 x higher -Long COVID: 4.8 x higher -Hospitalizations: 2.8 x higher -Deaths: 1.7 x higher
This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Jun 6 - Jun 19, 2026, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE [decreasing] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 3.0

About 1 of every 345 people is infected.

Estimated infections this week: 98,500-168,100
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 4.4X higher
Long COVID: MODERATE; 4.8X higher
Hospitalizations: MODERATE; 2.8X higher
Deaths: MODERATE; 1.7X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks

Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months

Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : 9 MAI - 22 MAI, 2026 QUÉBEC MODÉRÉ [stable] Environ 1 personne sur 197 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections : 5.3 x🔺 -COVID longue : 6.2 x🔺 -Hospitalisations : 4.2 x🔺 -Décès : 2.6 x🔺
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : 28 MAR - 10 AVR, 2026 QUÉBEC ÉLEVÉ [stable] Environ 1 personne sur 80 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections : 12.4 x🔺 -COVID longue : 6.8 x🔺 -Hospitalisations : 5.9 x🔺 -Décès : 6.3 x🔺
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Reposted by Joe
Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : 28 MAR - 10 AVR, 2026 SÉVÈRE : aucun TRÈS ÉLEVÉ : ÎPÉ ÉLEVÉ : CAN, AB, MB, NB, Nord, NÉ, ON, QC, SK MODÉRÉ : CB, TNL Environ 1 personne sur 84 est actuellement infectée au Canada.
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
Canadian COVID Forecast: Mar 28 - Apr 10, 2026 SEVERE: none VERY HIGH: PEI HIGH: CAN, AB, MB, NB, North, NS, ON, QC, SK MODERATE: BC, NL About 1 in 84 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
This image shows gauges with the Mar 28 - Apr 10, 2026 COVID Forecast scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. From left to right:

Canada: HIGH - 6.7
Alberta: HIGH - 6.3
British Columbia: MODERATE - 4.0
Manitoba: HIGH - 6.2
New Brunswick: HIGH - 6.6
Newfoundland & Labrador: MODERATE - 4.7
North: HIGH - 6.2
Nova Scotia: HIGH - 6.6
Ontario: HIGH - 6.9
Prince Edward Island: VERY HIGH - 10.9
Quebec: HIGH - 8.2
Saskatchewan: HIGH - 7.3

A text box reads: 'The COVID Forecast is calculated from 3 equally weighted categories: 1) Current infections and spread; 2) Healthcare system impact; 3) Mortality. Within each category there is one sub-category for trends over the most recent week (Trends) and one sub-category for current parameter values relative to a specified baseline (Current values). Trends and current values are weighted equally when determining the final score for a category. All Forecast input data and sources are available here (https://datastudio.google.com/embed/u/0/reporting/42b886cf-d661-488e-b7d8-5c5836b55ab6/page/p_2yqs028mwc). Past Forecast scores are available in the table below. Forecast scores are grouped into 4 ranges: MODERATE (1 to <5, white), HIGH (6 to <10, yellow), VERY HIGH (10 to <15, orange), SEVERE (>15 red).'
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Christophe Veltsos @drinfosec.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
🚨🧵by @ltsmash420.bsky.social on XTwitter: "The surge in meningitis and other invasive infections following the COVID-19 pandemic is increasingly understood not just as a result of 'immunity gaps' from lockdowns, but as a direct biological consequence..." Full🧵 threadreaderapp.com/thread/20344...
⚠️🦠The surge in meningitis and other invasive infections following the COVID-19 pandemic is increasingly understood not just as a result of "immunity gaps" from lockdowns, but as a direct biological consequence of how the SARS-CoV-2 virus interacts with the human body.

Research from 2024 through early 2026 has identified several specific physiological mechanisms—ranging from the degradation of physical barriers to long-term immune remodeling—that explain why individuals may be more susceptible to bacterial and viral pathogens after a COVID-19 infection.

1. Disruption of the Blood-Brain Barrier (BBB)

The most direct link to meningitis is the virus's impact on the brain's protective lining. SARS-CoV-2 doesn't just affect the lungs; it significantly compromises the integrity of the Blood-Brain Barrier.
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
Bonjour à tous. Notre modèle de prévision a besoin de quelques réglages pour le moment, ce qui nous empêche de le partager cette semaine. La prochaine prévision sera disponible dans deux semaines et nous reprendrons notre calendrier habituel.
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Reposted by Joe
Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
Hello everyone, the forecast model needs more work at this time. That means we have to cancel this week's release. Next Forecast will be available in two weeks and we'll resume our usual schedule.
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Reposted by Joe
Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
Canadian COVID Forecast Jan 31 - Feb 13, 2026 QUÉBEC HIGH [no change] About 1 of every 148 people is infected. Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections: 9.3 x higher -Long COVID: 6.5 x higher -Hospitalizations: 9.7 x higher -Deaths: 11.0 x higher
This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Jan 31 - Feb 13, 2026, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Quebec's COVID Forecast outlook is HIGH [no change] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 10.0

About 1 of every 148 people is infected.

Estimated infections this week: 66,300-83,800
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: HIGH; 9.3X higher
Long COVID: HIGH; 6.5X higher
Hospitalizations: HIGH; 9.7X higher
Deaths: VERY HIGH; 11.0X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks

Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months

Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : 31 JAN - 13 FEV, 2026 SÉVÈRE : AB, MB, NB, ÎPÉ, SK TRÈS ÉLEVÉ : CAN, Nord, NÉ, ON, QC ÉLEVÉ : CB, TNL MODÉRÉ : aucun Environ 1 personne sur 122 est actuellement infectée au Canada.
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Reposted by Joe
Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
Canadian COVID Forecast: Jan 31 - Feb 13, 2026 SEVERE: AB, MB, NB, PEI, SK VERY HIGH: CAN, North, NS, ON, QC HIGH: BC, NL MODERATE: none About 1 in 122 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
This image shows gauges with the Jan 31 - Feb 13, 2026 COVID Forecast scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. From left to right:

Canada: VERY HIGH - 13.1
Alberta: SEVERE - 18.6
British Columbia: HIGH - 6.3
Manitoba: SEVERE - 18.4
New Brunswick: SEVERE - 19.2
Newfoundland & Labrador: HIGH - 7.7
North: VERY HIGH - 13.9
Nova Scotia: VERY HIGH - 10.4
Ontario: VERY HIGH - 14.5
Prince Edward Island: SEVERE - 18.9
Quebec: VERY HIGH - 10.0
Saskatchewan: SEVERE - 18.7

A text box reads: 'The COVID Forecast is calculated from 3 equally weighted categories: 1) Current infections and spread; 2) Healthcare system impact; 3) Mortality. Within each category there is one sub-category for trends over the most recent week (Trends) and one sub-category for current parameter values relative to a specified baseline (Current values). Trends and current values are weighted equally when determining the final score for a category. All Forecast input data and sources are available here (https://datastudio.google.com/embed/u/0/reporting/42b886cf-d661-488e-b7d8-5c5836b55ab6/page/p_2yqs028mwc). Past Forecast scores are available in the table below. Forecast scores are grouped into 4 ranges: MODERATE (1 to <5, white), HIGH (6 to <10, yellow), VERY HIGH (10 to <15, orange), SEVERE (>15 red).'
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : 17- 30 JAN, 2026 QUÉBEC TRÈS ÉLEVÉ [en baisse] Environ 1 personne sur 87 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections : 10.8 x🔺 -COVID longue : 6.5 x🔺 -Hospitalisations : 10.8 x🔺 -Décès : 15.3 x🔺
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : 17- 30 JAN, 2026 CANADA TRÈS ÉLEVÉ [stable] Environ 1 personne sur 95 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections : 10.5 x🔺 -COVID longue : 6.4 x🔺 -Hospitalisations : 10.6 x🔺 -Décès : 15.1 x🔺
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Canadian COVID Forecast: Jan 17 - Jan 30, 2026 SEVERE: MB, NS, SK VERY HIGH: CAN, AB, NB, NL, North, ON, QC HIGH: BC, PEI MODERATE: none About 1 in 95 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
This image shows gauges with the Jan 17 - Jan 30, 2026 COVID Forecast scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. From left to right:

Canada: VERY HIGH - 12.1
Alberta: VERY HIGH - 12.3
British Columbia: HIGH - 8.1
Manitoba: SEVERE - 19.2
New Brunswick: VERY HIGH - 11.2
Newfoundland & Labrador: VERY HIGH - 11.3
North: VERY HIGH - 12.9
Nova Scotia: SEVERE - 17.6
Ontario: VERY HIGH - 10.9
Prince Edward Island: HIGH - 9.8
Quebec: VERY HIGH - 12.3
Saskatchewan: SEVERE - 17.9

A text box reads: 'The COVID Forecast is calculated from 3 equally weighted categories: 1) Current infections and spread; 2) Healthcare system impact; 3) Mortality. Within each category there is one sub-category for trends over the most recent week (Trends) and one sub-category for current parameter values relative to a specified baseline (Current values). Trends and current values are weighted equally when determining the final score for a category. All Forecast input data and sources are available here (https://datastudio.google.com/embed/u/0/reporting/42b886cf-d661-488e-b7d8-5c5836b55ab6/page/p_2yqs028mwc). Past Forecast scores are available in the table below. Forecast scores are grouped into 4 ranges: MODERATE (1 to <5, white), HIGH (6 to <10, yellow), VERY HIGH (10 to <15, orange), SEVERE (>15 red).'
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Reposted by Joe
Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
We're a bit delayed with the forecast. Please check back tomorrow for an update.
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : DÉC 20, 2025-JAN 2, 2026 CANADA ÉLEVÉ [stable] Environ 1 personne sur 55 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections : 11.0 x🔺 -COVID longue : 6.2 x🔺 -Hospitalisations : 9.8 x🔺 -Décès : 9.1 x🔺
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : DÉC 20, 2025-JAN 2, 2026 ONTARIO ÉLEVÉ [en baisse] Environ 1 personne sur 58 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections : 10.5 x🔺 -COVID longue : 6.0 x🔺 -Hospitalisations : 8.7 x🔺 -Décès : 8.3 x🔺
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : DÉC 20, 2025-JAN 2, 2026 QUÉBEC TRÈS ÉLEVÉ [stable] Environ 1 personne sur 49 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections : 11.4 x🔺 -COVID longue : 6.1 x🔺 -Hospitalisations : 10.2 x🔺 -Décès : 9.8 x🔺
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
We were improving our model last week and didn't finish in time to publish the forecast. We're done now and are planning to release our next forecast on Monday, December 22. Our deepest apologies for the delay.
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
Nous avons amélioré notre modèle la semaine dernière et n'avons pas terminé à temps pour publier les prévisions. Tout est maintenant prêt. Nous prévoyons de diffuser nos nouvelles prévisions le lundi 22 décembre. Nous vous prions d’accepter nos excuses les plus sincères pour ce retard.
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 22 - DÉC 5, 2025 QUÉBEC ÉLEVÉ [stable] Environ 1 personne sur 163 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections : 8.0 x🔺 -COVID longue : 6.0 x🔺 -Hospitalisations : 7.9 x🔺 -Décès : 10.4 x🔺
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 22 - DÉC 5, 2025 CANADA ÉLEVÉ [stable] Environ 1 personne sur 161 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections : 8.8 x🔺 -COVID longue : 6.0 x🔺 -Hospitalisations : 8.2 x🔺 -Décès : 11.4 x🔺
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 8 - NOV 21, 2025 QUÉBEC TRÈS ÉLEVÉ [stable] Environ 1 personne sur 115 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections : 7.5 x🔺 -COVID longue : 6.0 x🔺 -Hospitalisations : 11.0 x🔺 -Décès : 11.7 x🔺
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 8 - NOV 21, 2025 CANADA TRÈS ÉLEVÉ [stable] Environ 1 personne sur 118 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections : 7.6 x🔺 -COVID longue : 6.0 x🔺 -Hospitalisations : 10.4 x🔺 -Décès : 12.2 x🔺
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 25 - Nov 7, 2025 QUÉBEC HIGH [decreasing] About 1 of every 134 people is infected. Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections: 6.3 x higher -Long COVID: 6.3 x higher -Hospitalizations: 12.9 x higher -Deaths: 8.9 x higher
This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Oct 25 - Nov 7, 2025, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Quebec's COVID Forecast outlook is HIGH [decreasing] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 9.4

About 1 of every 134 people is infected.

Estimated infections this week: 104,100-131,000
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: HIGH; 6.3X higher
Long COVID: HIGH; 6.3X higher
Hospitalizations: VERY HIGH; 12.9X higher
Deaths: HIGH; 8.9X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks
Who is HIGH RISK
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months

Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 25 - Nov 7, 2025 CANADA VERY HIGH [decreasing] About 1 of every 126 people is infected. Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections: 7.6 x higher -Long COVID: 6.3 x higher -Hospitalizations: 13.3 x higher -Deaths: 10.5 x higher
This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Oct 25 - Nov 7, 2025, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is VERY HIGH [decreasing] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 10.5

About 1 of every 126 people is infected.

Estimated infections this week: 488,600-614,500
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: HIGH; 7.6X higher
Long COVID: HIGH; 6.3X higher
Hospitalizations: VERY HIGH; 13.3X higher
Deaths: VERY HIGH; 10.5X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks
AVOID indoor social gatherings
AVOID crowded non-essential places
Who is HIGH RISK
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months

Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : SEP 27-OCT 10, 2025 QUÉBEC ÉLEVÉ [en hausse] Environ 1 personne sur 49 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections : 7.4 x🔺 -COVID longue : 5.7 x🔺 -Hospitalisations : 11.5 x🔺 -Décès : 9.8 x🔺
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 30/09/2025
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : SEP 27-OCT 10, 2025 GRAVE : aucun TRÈS ÉLEVÉ : MB, TNL, NÉ, SK ÉLEVÉ : CAN, AB, CB, NB, Nord, ON, ÎPÉ, QC MODÉRÉ : aucun Environ 1 personne sur 60 est actuellement infectée au Canada.
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : SEP 13-26, 2025 QUÉBEC ÉLEVÉ (stable) Environ 1 personne sur 105 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections ~8X🔺 -COVID longue ~8X🔺 -Hospitalisations ~18X🔺 -Décès ~9X🔺
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : SEP 13-SEP 26, 2025 GRAVE: TNL, ÎPÉ, SK TRÈS ÉLEVÉ : CAN, AB, CB, MB, NB, Nord, NÉ, ON ÉLEVÉ: QC MODÉRÉ: aucun Environ 1 personne sur 81 est actuellement infectée au Canada.
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 02/09/2025
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : AOÛ 30-SEP 12, 2025 QUÉBEC ÉLEVÉ Environ 1 personne 71 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections 7 supérieur -COVID longue 7.8 supérieur -Hospitalisations 9.6 supérieur -Décès 10.2 supérieur
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : AOÛ 30-SEP 12, 2025 CANADA ÉLEVÉ Environ 1 personne 65 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections 7.2 supérieur -COVID longue 7.7 supérieur -Hospitalisations 10.7 supérieur -Décès 10.9 supérieur
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
Canadian COVID Forecast Aug 30 - Sep 12 2025 CANADA High [No change] About 1 in 65 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada: -Infections ~7.2 higher -Long COVID ~7.7 higher -Hospitalizations ~10.7 higher -Deaths ~10.9 higher
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 18/08/2025
Canadian COVID Forecast: Aug 16-Aug 29, 2025 SEVERE: none VERY HIGH: none HIGH: AB MODERATE: CAN, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK About 1 in 121 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected.
This image shows gauges with the Aug 16-Aug 29, 2025 COVID Forecast scores for Canada, the provinces, & territories. From left to right:

Canada: 4.2 - MODERATE
Alberta: 7.0 - HIGH
British Columbia: 3.5 - MODERATE
Manitoba: 3.7 - MODERATE
New Brunswick: 3.5 - MODERATE
Newfoundland and Labrador: 3.4 - MODERATE
North: 4.2 - MODERATE
Nova Scotia: 3.4 - MODERATE
Ontario: 4.1 - MODERATE
Prince Edward Island: 3.7 - MODERATE
Quebec: 4.2 - MODERATE
Saskatchewan: 3.6 -  MODERATE

A text box reads: "The COVID Forecast is calculated from 3 equally weighted categories: 1) Current infections and spread; 2) Healthcare system impact; 3) Mortality. Within each category there is one sub-category for trends over the most recent week (Trends) and one sub-category for current parameter values relative to a specified baseline (Current values). Trends and current values are weighted equally when determining the final score for a category. All Forecast input data and sources are available here (https://datastudio.google.com/embed/u/0/reporting/42b886cf-d661-488e-b7d8-5c5836b55ab6/page/p_2yqs028mwc). Past Forecast scores are available in the table below. Forecast scores are grouped into 4 ranges: MODERATE (1 to <5, white), HIGH (6 to <10, yellow), VERY HIGH (10 to <15, orange), SEVERE (>15 red).
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 25/06/2025
Apologies once again... We hoped to have a forecast out, if not Monday, then by mid-week, but unfortunately no massaging of the model would get it to a reliable iteration. I'm running it from scratch again, if all goes well, we will have the forecast out next Monday, June 30th. 🤞
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : MAI 10-23, 2025 QUÉBEC ÉLEVÉ (stable) Environ 1 personne sur 134 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections ~8X🔺 -COVID longue ~6X🔺 -Hospitalisations ~11X🔺 -Décès ~11X🔺
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Tara Moriarty @moriartylab.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : MAI 10-23, 2025 CANADA ÉLEVÉ (stable) Environ 1 personne sur 134 est infectée Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada : -Infections ~8X 🔺 -COVID longue ~6X 🔺 -Hospitalisations ~11X 🔺 -Décès ~11X 🔺
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Myrrham @myrrham.bsky.social · 14/02/2024
Magnifique
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