Hello everyone, the forecast model needs more work at this time.
That means we have to cancel this week's release.
The next forecast will be available in two weeks.
Tara Moriarty
@moriartylab.bsky.social
21K followers 9.2K following 21K posts
Associate Professor, University of Toronto. Bloodborne infections, Lyme disease, misinfo. COVID-19 Resources Canada. Defend journalism. Look for the helpers. Opinions mine. 🇨🇦🏳️🌈 covid19resources.ca
![This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Sep 12 - Sep 25, 2026, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE [no change] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 4.0
About 1 of every 158 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 151,700-309,800
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 3.9X higher
Long COVID: MODERATE; 2.9X higher
Hospitalizations: MODERATE; 4.2X higher
Deaths: MODERATE; 3.9X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/bafkreif7khgr3smag5s2uvat4as4724n2eh3wpvkxogot67wkz36maur7e)
![This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Aug 1 - Aug 14, 2026, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE [no change] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 2.5
About 1 of every 271 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 127,800-205,300
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 2.6X higher
Long COVID: MODERATE; 4.6X higher
Hospitalizations: MODERATE; 2.8X higher
Deaths: MODERATE; 2.0X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/bafkreihgvhporx365djxeln3zq7rkmbnfdq6fx75nasss4v7tjkcrebwse)
![This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Jul 18 - Jul 31, 2026, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE [no change] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 2.3
About 1 of every 287 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 120,700-202,600
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 2.4X higher
Long COVID: MODERATE; 4.5X higher
Hospitalizations: MODERATE; 2.6X higher
Deaths: MODERATE; 2.0X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/bafkreid3xmrbdw6hqo2y453vmlv3si44m7eqxflvsdwypih63g3jbopy64)
![This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Jun 20 - Jul 3, 2026, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE [decreasing] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 2.9
About 1 of every 320 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 86,400-198,500
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 4.0X higher
Long COVID: MODERATE; 4.6X higher
Hospitalizations: MODERATE; 2.6X higher
Deaths: MODERATE; 2.0X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type mask
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/bafkreigmx7s7mqhelocsagkkataj6bou6blgopjdmyb6jqrxnoq6bfhiai)
![This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Jun 6 - Jun 19, 2026, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE [decreasing] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 3.0
About 1 of every 345 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 98,500-168,100
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: MODERATE; 4.4X higher
Long COVID: MODERATE; 4.8X higher
Hospitalizations: MODERATE; 2.8X higher
Deaths: MODERATE; 1.7X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/bafkreic2fpa33hvqcoxygmvcmssuryv644se6uad33fkergkmm7o6r7o4e)
![This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between May 23 - Jun 5, 2026, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE [no change] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 3.5
About 1 of every 314 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 111,500-184,500
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: HIGH; 5.3X higher
Long COVID: MODERATE; 4.8X higher
Hospitalizations: MODERATE; 3.0X higher
Deaths: MODERATE; 2.1X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/bafkreibw5xf67tmdvfbimxuccdsmofzzksqraf6svmw3lzzmrlgzsjgpbi)
![This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between May 9 - May 22, 2026, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is HIGH [no change] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 5.4
About 1 of every 188 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 6,200-386,900
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: HIGH; 8.0X higher
Long COVID: HIGH; 6.0X higher
Hospitalizations: MODERATE; 4.5X higher
Deaths: MODERATE; 3.9X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/bafkreibdkuds4ns3eosaewtal3m7hrplo3pilpwr4ii6adj2h6dyzz6zaa)
![This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Apr 25 - May 8, 2026, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is MODERATE [decreasing] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 4.4
About 1 of every 248 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 160,600-239,700
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: HIGH; 7.2X higher
Long COVID: MODERATE; 5.0X higher
Hospitalizations: MODERATE; 3.7X higher
Deaths: MODERATE; 2.3X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/bafkreiex7shetxbfr6vqe5xj73fcsst4elma4huchqihrrtxnnm4t3zdqi)
![This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Mar 28 - Apr 10, 2026, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is HIGH [no change] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 6.7
About 1 of every 84 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 413,100-577,100
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: HIGH; 9.2X higher
Long COVID: HIGH; 6.6X higher
Hospitalizations: HIGH; 5.4X higher
Deaths: HIGH; 5.6X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/bafkreibirhlvpezyh2refcjdnpzb25khgbzlpqqqvr75jo2fsnxqkhdlve)
![This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for the fourteen-day period between Feb 28 - Mar 13, 2026, which is produced by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is HIGH [no change] with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 6.7
About 1 of every 99 people is infected.
Estimated infections this week: 474,800-587,200
What these numbers mean: MODERATE 1-5, HIGH 5-10, VERY HIGH 10-15, SEVERE >15 COMPARED TO THE LOWEST POINT IN THE COVID PANDEMIC IN CANADA
How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada?
Waste water, infections: HIGH; 7.4X higher
Long COVID: HIGH; 5.8X higher
Hospitalizations: HIGH; 6.5X higher
Deaths: HIGH; 6.3X higher
HOW TO HELP:
EVERYONE:
UPDATE vaccines every 6 months
WEAR N95-type masks
Who is HIGH RISK?
People 60 and older, babies < 1 year, pregnant
ALL AGES: immunocompromised OR medically at-risk OR no vaccine or infection in the last 6 months
Recommendations are based on the COVID-19 Risk Index from the Peterborough ON Public Health Unit
COVID-19 Resources Canada is a grassroots organization of volunteer scientists supporting Canadian COVID responses. Sources, data and methods for the COVID Index are available at www.Covid19Resources.ca](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qbuobwdie7rzq4fburk63aft/bafkreifeal6fmw7nybvan3wbmn5pfka4firyusuldowate7ydq5sy24oiy)