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Logomachist Elections

@logomachistelections.com
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Election commentary, sans sleeves. New name, same snark. US, Canada, UK, Australia, Europe, and more. Part of the Logomachist Media network. FKA Election Yard.

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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 15h
David Valadao (R) has survived close calls as the #California 22nd rep. CA-22 got a bit more Democratic during redistricting, meaning Valadao will have to battle for his re-election against Democrat Randy Villegas. Dems accounted for 59% of the primary vote here. #Election2026 #Midterms2026
Election 2026 California US House 22nd District mini-preview - Incumbent Rep David Valadao - Challenger Dem Randy Villegas - map of California 22nd District in red - Prior Result (2024): Rep 53.42%, Dem 46.58% - Current Prediction: Toss-Up
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 19h
I mean, what did they think was going to happen
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 30/09/2026
Latest Marist poll dropped in #Michigan: El-Sayed up 51-44 on Rogers maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midter...
maristpoll.marist.edu
Home of the Marist Poll | Polls, Analysis, Learning, and More
The Marist Institute for Public Opinion (MIPO) is a survey research center. MIPO is home to the Marist Poll and conducts polls on politics, the economy, sports, technology and more at the local, state...
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 29/09/2026
RACE PREVIEW: The race for #Ohio governor could be their closest and most competitive in a long time. It could result in Democrats winning the office for the first time in 20 years. The race between Amy Acton (D) and Vivek Ramaswamy (R) bears watching.
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 29/09/2026
#Ohio will elect a new governor this year as Mike DeWine (R) is termed out. However, this is not the slam dunk past races have been for the GOP. Maybe far from it. Amy Acton (D) is hanging with Vivek Ramaswamy (R) in the polls, which should make for a very interesting election night.
Election 2026 Ohio Governor mini-preview - Term-Limited Rep Mike DeWine - Candidates Rep Vivek Ramaswamy, Dem Amy Acton - 2022 governor results map by county - Prior Result (2022): Rep 62.41%, Dem 37.38% - Current Prediction: Toss-Up
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Eric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Via David Paleogos at Suffolk: the latest Suffolk poll numbers in Ohio #OHGov Acton 50 Ramaswamy 41 Kissick 3 Undecided 5 Who is running the more negative campaign Ramaswamy 48 Acton 23
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 29/09/2026
Hotchie motchie
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 28/09/2026
While many Americans are still focused on issues like the economy and the ongoing war in Iran, data centers have come up more recently in the 2026 campaign. There has been a data center boom in the United States, but many local communities have fought back against them.
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 28/09/2026
The 1st District of #Iowa was one of the closest races anywhere in 2024. Incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) beat Christina Bohannan (D) by less than 800 votes. The two are having their second rematch in 2026. #Election2026 #Midterms2026
Election 2026 Iowa US House 1st District mini-preview - Incumbent Rep Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Challenger Dem Christina Bohannan - Iowa 1st District map in red - Prior Result (2024): Rep 49.98%, Dem 49.79% - Current Prediction: Toss-Up
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 28/09/2026
36 days until the midterms.
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 27/09/2026
RACE PREVIEW: The #Minnesota Senate race in 2026 is an open seat, so already, you know both parties will be fighting hard for it. Republicans think they have a shot at this race, but how good of a chance is it? After all, this is shaping up to be a blue electoral environment.
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 27/09/2026
The Senate race in #NewJersey, once again, won't be anything special. Democrat Cory Booker is running for re-election, which few expect him to be denied. His Republican opponent is Justin Murphy. The GOP has not won a Senate race here since 1972. #Election2026 #Midterms2026
Election 2026 New Jersey US Senate race mini-preview - Incumbent Dem Cory Booker - Challenger Rep Justin Murphy - map of 2020 US Senate results by county - Prior Result (2020): Dem 57.23%, Rep 40.92% - Current Prediction: Safe Democratic
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 27/09/2026
Looking forward to putting out our first "no toss-ups" guess soon. Becoming less of a question of if it will be a wave election: the question now is how big of a wave. #election2026
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VoteHub @votehub.com · 26/09/2026
Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) says he has no plans to help Ken Paxton with fundraising, warning Republicans risk losing when they nominate “flawed candidates.” Asked by CNN whether Paxton deserves to be a senator, Cornyn said he would “let the voters decide.”
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 26/09/2026
The 3rd District of #Washington has a habit of being close. Moderate Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez has had close calls, but so far has yet to lose. Her GOP opponent this time is John Braun, a state senator. We recently moved this race to Tilt Dem from Toss-Up. #Election2026 #Midterms2026
Election 2026 Washington US House 3rd District mini-preview - Incumbent Dem Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Challenger Rep John Braun - map of Washington's 3rd District in blue - Prior Result (2024): Dem 51.74%, Rep 47.86% - Current Prediction: Tilt Democratic
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 26/09/2026
#Virginia has soared up to 183K early votes in the bank. www.vpap.org/elections/ea...
vpap.org
vpap.org
Your Window into Virginia Politics
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Josh Gerstein @joshgerstein.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
BREAKING: #SCOTUS again rejects GOP bid to tweak Missouri district lines to pick up another U.S. House seat, chides lower federal courts for ignoring Purcell principle and interfering in state decisions just prior to election. Remarkably, no noted dissent. www.politico.com/news/2026/09...
politico.com
Supreme Court again snubs GOP gerrymander in Missouri
Justices also warned federal courts not to interfere with state decisions.
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States Newsroom @statesnewsroom.com · 25/09/2026
Lt. Gov. Dale Caldwell has resigned, less than 24 hours after the Sherrill administration released a report alleging multiple ethical lapses on Caldwell’s behalf.Gov. Mikie Sherrill said Caldwell submitted his resignation Friday afternoon and she accepted. Both are Democrats.
bit.ly
Lt. Gov. Dale Caldwell resigns after report cites ethics violations
Lt. Gov. Dale Caldwell has resigned, less than 24 hours after the Sherrill administration released a report alleging multiple ethical lapses on Caldwell’s behalf.Gov. Mikie Sherrill said Caldwell submitted his resignation Friday afternoon and she accepted. Both are Democrats.
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 25/09/2026
Voted early in #Virginia AMA
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 25/09/2026
Here's your early voting tracker for #Virginia - likely to cruise over 150K votes in the till today: www.vpap.org/elections/ea...
vpap.org
vpap.org
Your Window into Virginia Politics
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 25/09/2026
#Wisconsin has an open race for governor in 2026 with Democrat Tony Evers retiring. David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R) in one of the nation's most crucial swing states. This toss-up race will be allocated soon. #election2026 #midterms2026
Election 2026 Wisconsin governor mini-preview - Retiring Dem Tony Evers - Candidates Dem David Crowley, Rep Tom Tiffany - map of 2022 governor results - Prior Result (2022): Dem 51.15%, Rep 47.75% - Current Prediction: Toss-Up
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 25/09/2026
With October coming, we're going no toss-ups soon. Starting on 10/1, the few dozen races we have as toss-ups will start to be allocated. This should be fun. #Election2026
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 24/09/2026
Well, look at you, UNH. Giving me some content this afternoon. (Even if they're a Hockey East rival school of mine.)
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 24/09/2026
Not saying I fully believe it, but Phil Scott losing would be one of the biggest upsets of the cycle and I'm not kidding.
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 24/09/2026
The 4th District of #Michigan was considered safe as recently as, well, the last election. It doesn't seem to be anymore. Incumbent Bill Huizenga (R) faces a well-funded challenger in Sean McCann (D), a state senator. Donald Trump carried MI-04 by six in 2024. #Election2026 #Midterms2026 #MI04
Election 2026 Michigan US House 4th District mini-preview - Incumbent Rep Bill Huizenga - Challenger Dem Sean McCann - map of Michigan's 4th District in red - Prior Result (2024): Rep 55.07%, Dem 43.36% - Current Prediction: Tilt Republican
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 24/09/2026
40 days until the midterms.
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 23/09/2026
For some perspective, 2006 was D+8 and 2018 was D+9. 2008 (presidential year) was about D+11 and a Dem landslide. D+13 wouldn't be a blue wave or a blue tsunami, it would be more like a blue orbital nuke.
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 23/09/2026
RACE PREVIEW: We ask this - Are the Democrats about to win the #Iowa governor's race for the first time in 20 years? Donald Trump won Iowa by 13 points just two years ago, so how could we possibly be talking about this as a potential Democratic flip?
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 23/09/2026
Democrats thought they had Susan Collins (R) in politically-independent #Maine back in 2020, but it did not happen. It's probably now or never in 2026, as the incumbent faces Democrat Troy Jackson. Will Collins be denied a sixth term? #Election2026 #Midterms2026 #MESen
Election 2026 Maine US Senate mini-preview - Incumbent Rep Susan Collins - Challenger Dem Troy Jackson - map of 2020 Maine election results - Prior Result (2020): Rep 50.98%, Dem 42.39% - Current Prediction: Toss-Up
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 23/09/2026
Another good poll for Talarico. I understand the hesitation to believe it, and some might point to 2018, but I went back and checked - Beto O'Rourke only led in a few polls the entire campaign. Talarico leads in most of them today. This race doesn't feel like that one.
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 23/09/2026
You can tell based upon how the messaging has started to change from some GOP candidates and how (for example) GOP ad spending in Texas has suddenly spiked. Polls are one thing but always watch what the candidates and campaigns actually do.
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 22/09/2026
The 1st District of #Arizona, in Maricopa County, is an open seat. It's also a toss-up. Democrats renominated Amish Shah, while the GOP chose former NFL kicker Jay Feely. Shah lost by four points last year in a district that Trump carried by 3. #election2026 #midterms2026
Election 2026 Arizona US House 1st District mini-preview - Retiring Rep David Schweikert - Candidates Rep Jay Feely, Dem Amish Shah - map of Arizona's 1st District in red - Prior Result (2024): Rep 51.91%, Dem 48.09% - Current Prediction: Toss-Up
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 22/09/2026
Got into the Marist poll crosstabs of the Iowa Senate race. Some good stuff in there for Josh Turek if it's true. Getting 13% GOP crossover and leads on Independents, 49-36. In the race for governor, Rob Sand is getting 15% GOP crossover and is clobbering Lahn with Independents by 24 points.
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 21/09/2026
The race for #Iowa governor just might produce a flip. Democrats have not won here in 20 years, but Rob Sand has been running ahead of Zach Lahn in every poll since the primary. Sand's polling average is close to 50 percent, so we think this race tilts his way. #Election2026 #Midterms2026
Election 2026 Iowa governor race mini-preview - Retiring Rep Kim Reynolds - Candidates Rep Zach Lahn, Dem Rob Sand - Prior Result (2022): Rep 58.04%, Dem 39.53% - Current Prediction - Flip - Tilt Democratic
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Bolts @boltsmag.org · 21/09/2026
Many GOP-run states have restricted ballot initiatives in recent years. Democracy advocates are going on the offensive in Missouri and Montana this fall with a new approach to protecting the initiative.
boltsmag.org
To Protect Direct Democracy, Two States Mull a New Approach: Name It As a Right - Bolts
Ballot measures in Missouri and Montana would strengthen citizen-led initiatives. Democracy advocates in each state are going on the offense after facing years of attack.
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New Hampshire Bulletin @newhampshirebulletin.com · 21/09/2026
"There is no guarantee that New Hampshire Democrats will retake the state House of Representatives in November. But if they do, the path to victory goes through Manchester Ward 12, Goffstown, Londonderry, Sunapee, and Bedford." From @ethandewitt.bsky.social #NHPolitics
newhampshirebulletin.com
As they seek to flip the New Hampshire House, Democrats hold some advantages • New Hampshire Bulletin
There is no guarantee that New Hampshire Democrats will retake the state House of Representatives in November. But if they do, the path to victory goes through Manchester Ward 12, Goffstown,…
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 21/09/2026
43 days until the midterm elections. Early voting may have already begun in your state. It sure did in mine.
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 20/09/2026
Two years ago, the #Indiana 1st District race was seen as competitive. Ultimately, it wasn't that close, with incumbent Democrat Frank Mrvan winning by 8.5 points. Now, in 2026, Mrvan is a clearer favorite for re-election. #IN01 #Election2026 #Midterms2026
Election 2026 Indiana US House 1st District - incumbent Dem Frank Mrvan - Challenger Rep Barb Regnitz - map of Indiana 1st district in blue - Prior Result (2024): Dem 53.44%, Rep 44.95% - Current Prediction: Likely Democratic
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
#earlyvote update 9/20: at least 53,331 people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...
election.lab.ufl.edu
» 2026 Early Voting UF Election Lab
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 19/09/2026
RACE PREVIEW: The Pennsylvania 10th District race in 2026 promises to be as close as in 2024, but perhaps this time with a different outcome. Democrats surged in this race two years ago, but came up a point short of unseating incumbent Republican Scott Perry. #PA10 #Election2026 #Midterms2026
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 19/09/2026
Ben Ray Luján, #NewMexico 's Democratic incumbent, was almost unopposed in his Senate re-election run. However, the GOP nominated a write-in candidate, Larry Marker, when nobody else qualified for the ballot. Luján appears safe this time. #election2026 #midterms2026
Election 2026 New Mexico US Senate race mini-preview - Incumbent Dem Ben Ray Lujan - Challenger Rep Larry Marker - map of 2020 US Senate results - Prior Result (2020): Dem 51.73%, Rep 45.62% - Current Prediction: Safe Democratic
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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
#earlyvote update 9/19: at least 16,942 people have voted in the 2026 general election 🥳 election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2...
election.lab.ufl.edu
» 2026 Early Voting UF Election Lab
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 19/09/2026
In the 2024 election, the BC Conservatives won 44 seats, two short of a majority. Today, two years later, they are at 25 seats due to mass defections. Don't think I've ever seen anything like this.
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 19/09/2026
This, more than any other poll, is the true harbinger of doom for Paxton (I'm kidding, maybe)
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 18/09/2026
I'm sure that calling high gas prices "a very inexpensive price to pay" won't hurt the GOP at all and is totally good messaging
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 18/09/2026
The race for #Nevada governor promises to be close. It usually is. Incumbent Republican Joe Lombardo is slightly favored in our latest update, but the Democrat, Attorney General Aaron Ford, is close on Lombardo's tail. Who will win in Nevada in 2026? #Election2026 #Midterms2026 #NVGov
Election 2026 Nevada governor mini-preview - Incumbent Rep Joe Lombardo - Challenger Dem Aaron Ford - map of 2022 Nevada county results - Prior Result (2022): Rep 48.81%, Dem 47.30% - Current Prediction: Tilt Republican
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 18/09/2026
Today is the first day of early voting in Virginia. #election2026
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 17/09/2026
RACE PREVIEW: Yes, we're talking about the 2026 Kansas Senate race. This isn't one you'd think we would be talking about this year, but it presents an intriguing opportunity for Democrats in a place where they never win. No, seriously: Democrats haven't won a Senate race in Kansas in 94 years.
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 17/09/2026
Internal polling must not be great
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Logomachist Elections @logomachistelections.com · 17/09/2026
The 10th District of #Pennsylvania is a rematch between incumbent Scott Perry (R) and Janelle Stelson (D). Trump won here by five, but Perry only managed to hold his seat by a little over a point in 2024. Democrats think they can take it this time. #Election2026 #Midterms2026
Election 2026 Pennsylvania US House 10th mini-preview - Incumbent Rep Scott Perry, Challenger Dem Janelle Stelson - map of PA-10 in red - Prior Result (2024): Rep 50.63%, Dem 49.37% - Current Prediction: Toss-Up
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