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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

My hot take is that Mike Rogers has overplayed his hand playing to anti-Muslim sentiment, and it has quickly helped El-Sayed coalesce support among democrats.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

Trump's approval rating across 7 polls in the week before the new tariff announcement: Approve: 38.6% Disapprove: 58.1% Net: -19.5% Trump's approval rating across 5 polls in the week after the announcement: Approve: 34.0% Disapprove: 62.6% Net: -28.4%

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Tonight, I put together a Primary Forecast for the LA Mayor Race. It's based on the forecast I normally used for Governor Races. My forecast shows Karen Bass is likely to survive the first round, with 30.76%.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Final Projections for California Governor🧵 Xavier Becerra has zoomed ahead and is slightly favored to finish on top - while Steyer may narrowly eclipse Hilton, which would lead to a Republican lockout.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

Democrats new lead in the generic ballot is now D+7.1% - their highest since we started tracking the polling back in January of 2025. Link -> www.racetothewh.com/polls/generi...

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

It's a huge primary day today - we've got elections in Georgia for the Senate & Governor races and primaries in AL, KY, and TX (part 2). Here's my predictions for each race, based on my Primary Forecast: 1. Georgia R Senate to Face Ossoff: Projection: Collins 42.5%, Dooley 29.0%, Carter 24.4%

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Democrats have taken a commanding lead in the generic ballot, and now have their largest lead since Trump became president.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

Did you know that Barack Obama is running for Governor of California? Except he isn't a former President. He's a "politician, musician, and promoter of politics" with 318 followers on Instagram.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

Democrats have a real chance to win in Iowa, despite the state's Republicans lean. No state has suffered more from tariffs, and I think it's telling that both the incumbent Governor and Senator decided not to run for re-election.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

The President of the United States is threatening to wipe out Iran's civilization - a clear signal of genocidal intent. This would be evil, and it would destroy America's reputation for generations.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

President Trump's approval rating hit a new low today in the RacetotheWH Average. Approve: 38.8% Disapprove: 57.9% Net: +19.1% Disapprove

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

Here's my current project for the Maine Senate Primary, based on the election forecast I built that simulates the race 3,000 times. Projected Vote: Graham Platner: 55.0% Janet Mills: 37.9% Rest of the Field: 4.7%

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

Pete Buttigieg almost won New Hampshire in 2020 - and voters seem to like him even more now. He has led all five 2028 New Hampshire primary polls.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

Here's my final prediction for the Texas Democratic Primary. Projected Vote: James Talarico 52.3% Jasmine Crockett 46.6% Chance to Win: James Talarico 62.4% Jasmine Crocket 30.6% Runoff: 7.1% Chance

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

James Talarico is having quite a moment in Texas after the Colbert interview - and according to Google Trends, Texans are now searching his name at a very high rate just in time for early voting.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 16/02/2026

For the first time this term, President Trump's approval rating has fallen below 40% in the RacetotheWH polling average.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 12/02/2026

Watch Alaska in 2026 - the state is zooming towards Democrats at a break neck speed. Relative to the popular vote, Alaska shifted from an R+29% state in 2008 to R+12% in 2024. No state in the nation has shifted faster towards Democrats in the last 16 years.

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Reposted by Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH

Blue Virginia @bluevirginia.bsky.social · 12/02/2026

Interesting; in this simulation by @loganr2wh.bsky.social, redistricting gains Dems 2.1 seats (7.4 with the old map to 9.5 with the new map), with VA05 going from a 31% to an 86% chance for Dems, and VA06 going from a 2% to a 92% chance for Dems bluevirginia.us/2026/02/wedn...

Logan Philips: "I ran the new proposed Virginia map through my House Forecast. After simulating the election 10,000 times, here's what changed:
Old Map: Dems 7.4 seats, GOP 3.6 seats. 1.2% chance Dems win 10/11 seats.
New Map: Dems 9.5 seats, GOP 1.5 seats. 69% chance Dems win 10/11 seats.
Logan Phillips
@LoganR2WH
·
2h
Let's go through the races where the forecast changed the most.
VA - 1: Tilt R -> Safe D, Vindman (D) from VA-7 runs here
VA - 2: Tilt D -> Lean D - Democrats chance to win improves from 68% to 83%
Logan Phillips
@LoganR2WH
VA - 5: Tilt R -> Likely D, Democrats chance to win improves from 31% to 86%, If Wittman (R) from VA-1 runs, he likely runs here
VA - 6: Safe R -> Likely D, Democrats chance to win improves from 2% to 92%"

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 11/02/2026

I'm joining Blue Sky late - but better late then never! I run RacetotheWH, where I predict the results of every election. Here's how the midterms look today! House - Chance to Win: Democrats: 69% (+8% since Oct) Republicans: 31% Senate: Democrats: 40% (+6% since Oct) Republicans: 60%

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