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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

If the media is going to extensively cover Hasan Piker, they must also spend time on Mike Rogers' racist attacks. He falsely claims El-Sayed believes America deserved 9/11 and alleges family ties to al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood. His real message is: don't vote for the Arab.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

I strongly suspect this has repelled and even disgusted some Stevens supporters, and it's shown in the polls as El-Sayed has retaken the lead after trailing by 3% just a week ago.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

Do we really think Stevens voters are eager to hear Rogers and Republicans claim El-Sayed supports 9/11? It's such an obvious lie, and very reminiscent of the racist attacks Barack Obama faced in 2008.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

My hot take is that Mike Rogers has overplayed his hand playing to anti-Muslim sentiment, and it has quickly helped El-Sayed coalesce support among democrats.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

Trump's approval rating across 7 polls in the week before the new tariff announcement: Approve: 38.6% Disapprove: 58.1% Net: -19.5% Trump's approval rating across 5 polls in the week after the announcement: Approve: 34.0% Disapprove: 62.6% Net: -28.4%

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Yep, I just did yesterday. Same with Louisiana.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

If you want to learn how this works, I explain how it works here (this thread also includes the CA Governor Forecast). As I said before, this is an adapted Governor primary forecast. I haven't tested it on mayor races, so take the projection with a grain of salt. bsky.app/profile/loga...

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Pratt is going to face headwinds as a Republican in a potential general election in a city where Democrats dominate - but if Nithya Raman makes the general election, she'd have a very good chance to win.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

However, second place is practically up for grabs. Pratt is projected to finish just 1.26% ahead of Raman. That's a tiny margin in a race with limited polling, so both matchups are highly viable.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Tonight, I put together a Primary Forecast for the LA Mayor Race. It's based on the forecast I normally used for Governor Races. My forecast shows Karen Bass is likely to survive the first round, with 30.76%.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

This is going to be tough - but I'm going for it! I'm going to quickly reconfigure my Governor forecast and try to make the LA Mayor race fit into it. I'm tracking the polling, fundraising and google searches already, so I think I can figure this out in an hour

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

That's how I was able to make a prediction on the odds each candidate has of making the general election, and the frequency that we see each matchup. Let me know if there's any other primaries you want to see a forecast for.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

3. I take my projections for each candidate, and simulate the election 60,000 times. In each simulation, candidates will randomly over/underperform - and this is influenced by the projected miss I calculated in step 2.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

2. I calculate how much my forecast is likely to under/overate each candidate. The more polling we have, and the closer we are to the election, the closer it will get on average. Bigger % misses happen with candidates that are projected to earn a lot of support.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Here's how I made the forecast - which I do routinely for Senate and Gov primaries around the country to power RacetotheWH. 1. I project each candidates vote share, using polling, momentum, fundraising, endorsement, experience, and google searches in CA

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Here's the chance each candidate has of making the general election by finishing in the top two. Becerra, Steyer and Hilton have all separated themselves cleanly from the rest of the field.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Xavier Becerra surged ahead at lightning speed since the day Eric Swalwell was forced out, rising from the bottom tier of candidates to the very top in just 30 days.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

The gap between the top three candidates is so miniscule. While I think the most likely outcome is Steyer v. Becerra, it would take just the slightest over-performance to turn this into a Becerra v. Hilton or a Steyer v. Hilton general election.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Final Projections for California Governor🧵 Xavier Becerra has zoomed ahead and is slightly favored to finish on top - while Steyer may narrowly eclipse Hilton, which would lead to a Republican lockout.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

Democrats new lead in the generic ballot is now D+7.1% - their highest since we started tracking the polling back in January of 2025. Link -> www.racetothewh.com/polls/generi...

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

I think Gallerin probably wins. I didn't do a forecast, so it's more of an educated guess.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

I'll show you what the forecast says. But don't count this as an official RacetotheWH primary projection - because odds are quite high Paxton overperforms these numbers. Share of the Vote: John Cornyn 50.7% Ken Paxton 49.3%

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Finally, we have Texas. My Senate primary can't do this race justice - simply because the President endorsed Paxton on election day. Polling is a big part of the primary forecast, and the polling can't account for Trump right now.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Alabama is like Georgia - it has a runoff if no one gets 50%. Here's the GOP Senate Primary Projection: Chance to Make Runoff: Barry Moore 89.0%, Jared Hudson 32.3%, Steve Marshall 21.3% Projected Vote: Moore 37.7%, Hudson 32.3%, Marshall 22.7% Chance to Win Outright: Moore 5%

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Now the GOP KY Senate Primary: Chance to Win: Andy Barr 97% Daniel Cameron 3% Projected Vote: Barr 56.8% Cameron 30.1% Faris 4.2%

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Next up - the KY Senate Race. This is the only election - so no runoffs. First, the Dem Primary Chance to Win: Charles Booker: 69.7% Amy McGrath 30.3% Projected Vote: Charles Booker 40.0% Amy McGrath 33.7% Pamela Stevenson 11.5% Dale Romans 6.3% Logan Forsythe: 3.4%

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Next up - the GA Governor - R Primary. Almost certain it goes to a runoff. Chance to Make Runoff: Rick Jackson 98.8% Burt Jones 98.1% Brad Raffensperger 2.3% Projected Vote: Jackson 35.7% Jones 32.% Raffensperger 16.9% Carr 10.7%,

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Next up - the GA Governor - D Primary. Projected vote for the GA Dem Primary: Keisha Lance Bottoms 53.9% Mike Thurmond 16.2% Jason Esteves 12.1% Geoff Duncan 11.8% Chance to Outright Win Today: Keisha Lance Bottoms 62% Make Runoff/Win: Bottoms 100%, Thurmond 18.3%, Esteves 2.4%, Duncan 2.4%

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

In Georgia - the top two candidates go to a runoff if neither gets 50% of the vote. Chance to Win Outright: Mike Collins 22% Chance to Make Runoff: Mike Collins 79%, Derek Dooley 62.4%, Buddy Carter 25.8%

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

It's a huge primary day today - we've got elections in Georgia for the Senate & Governor races and primaries in AL, KY, and TX (part 2). Here's my predictions for each race, based on my Primary Forecast: 1. Georgia R Senate to Face Ossoff: Projection: Collins 42.5%, Dooley 29.0%, Carter 24.4%

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Democrats have taken a commanding lead in the generic ballot, and now have their largest lead since Trump became president.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

Did you know that Barack Obama is running for Governor of California? Except he isn't a former President. He's a "politician, musician, and promoter of politics" with 318 followers on Instagram.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

It's coming out today! I just finished the forecast changes, and am writing an updated intro right now.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

Hey Ivan, I'm Logan from RacetotheWH. I'd love to know what the head to head version polling looks like if we eliminate James Ryan, so I can add it to my Alaska polling average. I'll be simulating the race in my AK Senate Forecast, and this would be invaluable for it. Thanks!

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

Democrats have a real chance to win in Iowa, despite the state's Republicans lean. No state has suffered more from tariffs, and I think it's telling that both the incumbent Governor and Senator decided not to run for re-election.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

I love America more than anything, and it would sicken me to my core to have this blood on our hands. It's a stain we will not be able to wash off.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

At this very moment, Iran is trying to get children and young Iranians to circle power plants, hand in hand. If Donald Trump blows them up, it will be an image the world will never forget.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

The President of the United States is threatening to wipe out Iran's civilization - a clear signal of genocidal intent. This would be evil, and it would destroy America's reputation for generations.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

President Trump's approval rating hit a new low today in the RacetotheWH Average. Approve: 38.8% Disapprove: 57.9% Net: +19.1% Disapprove

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

Here's my current project for the Maine Senate Primary, based on the election forecast I built that simulates the race 3,000 times. Projected Vote: Graham Platner: 55.0% Janet Mills: 37.9% Rest of the Field: 4.7%

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

Pete Buttigieg almost won New Hampshire in 2020 - and voters seem to like him even more now. He has led all five 2028 New Hampshire primary polls.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

Definitely. I have it all ready to go. Just waiting for one post-primary poll and to see who Trump endorses.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

Finally, for those that are curious, the model is powered by a combination of: 1. Polling 2. Fundraising 3. Endorsements 4. Political experience 5. google trends (how much people are searching each candidate's name). It also factors in momentum, giving a boost to surging candidates.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

2. In the final days of the campaign, we saw VP Kamala Harris and several members of Congress back Crockett. That usually doesn't happen for the losing candidate. Perhaps their picking up on signals the rest of us are missing.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

Anytime you get such a wildly different landscape in the polls, I think it's fair to assume the chance of a polling miss from the overall average - in ether direction - is more in play.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

1. Polls have been all over the place. While the two highest quality polls, conducted in the final days were great for Talarico, we had two independent polls taken a week or two earlier showing Crockett up by 12-18%.

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Logan Phillips - RacetotheWH @loganr2wh.bsky.social · 03/03/2026

Since 2002, I've run my Senate Primary forecast in 34 races, and I've gotten all 34 right. Some of this has been luck and some of it's hopefully skill. Eventually it will get one wrong - and there's two red flags in this race that give me a little pause.

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