iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Tim Hayes

Andreas Brandmaier @brandmaier.bsky.social · 01/06/2026

Cohen’s d is one of the most widely used ways to communicate mean differences across studies. But what, exactly, is it telling us? A perspective on detectability of effects -- just out in PARE: openpublishing.library.umass.edu/pare/article... #openaccess

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Reposted by Tim Hayes

Amanda Kay Montoya @akmontoya.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

If you’re at #aps26bcn join me at 2pm for a workshop on causal mediation analysis with the #PROCESSmacro! Learn all about potential outcomes, sensitivity analysis, and more!

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 03/04/2026

Varimax, Promax, Equimax, Parsimax … why do orthogonal factor rotation methods all sound like cheap rental car places?

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

At home with a 101 degree fever (thanks, my daughter’s daycare) prepping for a lecture on exploratory factor analysis. Normally I do all of my own work as a nonnegotiable point of pride, but I’m so tired and out of it, I’ll admit it: I decided to lean on ChatGPT for this one …

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 24/01/2026

Very interesting stuff! Reposting so students (eg, in my SEM class this semester) and colleagues can learn more.

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 19/12/2025

Wes is the bes! Catch him and Sonja (also the best) on the Wes coast!

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 10/10/2025

Happy Friday! I am clearly in a mood.

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

Extremely proud of this paper, which finally has an issue number! psycnet.apa.org/record/2024-...

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 28/07/2025

Who needs ordinal regression. I mean, it’s not like nearly *all* of our variables are ordinal or anything … 🤣😂😢

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 25/06/2025

FIU is disabling email forwarding as of tomorrow, which is understandable for cybersecurity but means I’ll have to send all emails using their garbage Microsoft Outlook interface. On the bright side, I guess this’ll help my compulsive email checking, since I refuse to get outlook on my phone.

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 21/06/2025

Great thread in which @kevinmking.bsky.social says everything I think and feel about latent classes. From now on, any time people ask me about these analyses, I’m going to just send them a link to this thread.

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 08/06/2025

“Most youth own smartphones.”

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

Had a blast teaching SEM at #APS2025! Great group of workshop attendees asking thoughtful, engaging questions. Hopefully folks learned something and had fun in the process!

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Reposted by Tim Hayes

Amanda Kay Montoya @akmontoya.bsky.social · 18/05/2025

Last chance to sign up for Intro (June 9-13) and Advanced (June 16-20) Mediation & Moderation at GSERM either in-person in beautiful St. Gallen, Switzerland or online from the comfort of your own home/office. gserm.org/programme/co...

gserm.org

Course table - University of St.Gallen – GSERM

The highlight of GSERM summer school regularly takes place in June: more than 30 courses at the campus of the University of St.Gallen.

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 14/05/2025

8 mo home sick from daycare. No big deal but marathon kinda day. Circa hour 11 of the waking day we’re watching Ms Rachel-throwing that at the wall in case it sticks-and all of a sudden, I swear, she goes, “Can you say … help? … HELP … heeeeeelp …” And my brain starts to break, just a little. 😅😂🤣

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 14/05/2025

Definitely take the free SEM workshop with @centerstat.org! And while we’re also shamelessly promoting our own things, I know of an SEM workshop at APS next week that I can recommend as well … 😉 www.psychologicalscience.org/conventions/...

Structural Equation Modeling in the Psychological Sciences workshop information (see hyperlink in post for more)

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Reposted by Tim Hayes

Wes Bonifay @wesbonifay.bsky.social · 14/05/2025

If you are planning to attend #APS2025 next week, please come by our (@winterstat.bsky.social & @ashleylwatts.bsky.social) invited symposium on the myriad problems of widespread statistical model evaluation practices (e.g., goodness-of-fit testing), along with some insightful solutions

“It is impossible to escape the impression that people commonly use false standards of measurement — that they seek power, success and wealth for themselves and admire them in others, and that they underestimate what is of true value in life.”
― Sigmund Freud, Civilization and Its Discontents

Model Evaluation and Its Discontents
Invited Symposium
Saturday May 24, 2025 10:30 AM - 11:50 AM ET

Subject: Methodology

Wes Bonifay (Chair)
Talks:
How to Lie With Fit Statistics
Wes Bonifay (Presenting Author)
The Shape of Good Model Fit
Sonja Winter (Presenting Author)
Consideration of Indicator Interchangeability Can Strengthen Construct Validation Efforts
Ashley Watts (Presenting Author)
Statistical models enable scientists to describe data, explain phenomena, form testable predictions, and (ideally) understand the world. To achieve such aims, a model and its components must undergo thorough evaluation. In this symposium, we confront the widely accepted methods of model evaluation, expose their limitations, and explore more insightful alternatives.

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 29/04/2025

I have neither beneficence nor respect for the persons who created the extremely long CITI Training Good Clinical Practice modules and mandatory 100% quiz question pass rate requirement. 😒

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 12/04/2025

Matrix overview slides for my regression class are coming along.

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 09/04/2025

Hey @wesbonifay.bsky.social, I finally got a NYT Letterboxed in 2 words, so now I’m preparing to ascend to heaven as a being made of pure light. 🙌🏻🌅 Just figured you’d want to know.

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 08/04/2025

The negative binomial is just like the regular binomial, except everything is terrible and nothing matters and what’s even the point?

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

It is only our hubris that ever led us to name it “the negative binomial distribution” instead of “the Poisson distribution with wiggly gamma means.”

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Reposted by Tim Hayes

Dan McNeish @dmcneish.bsky.social · 02/04/2025

New paper on dealing with MNAR intensive longitudinal data. Ran into this problem in an empirical study and didn't find too much in the methods literature on MNAR ILD, so this was the best I could come up with. Lots of opportunity to improve methods in this area! psycnet.apa.org/record/2025-...

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

As always, treating the history of statistics with the respect and reverence that it deserves.

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

I can’t catch a break. But I *can* catch literally every virus my daughter picks up at daycare.

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

One of the old FIU cybersecurity trainings talked about building a ‘strong shield’ against cybersecurity threats. Now, when I report a phishing email or text, in my head, I’m like, “FUCK YOU, MY SHIELD IS STRONG!” Not sure if that means that the training was effective or not.

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

No one: Daycare: March 3rd is dress up like Dr Seuss day! 😃

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

First he called my dependent variable a count (rude), then he told me to run a POISON REGRESSION. 😳☠️

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 26/02/2025

Count outcome slides are coming along.

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 04/02/2025

Today’s 90s movie reference that my students will never get. Context: discussing why you shouldn’t treat ordinal outcomes as if they are continuous.

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Reposted by Tim Hayes

Rushani Wijesuriya @rush-099.bsky.social · 27/01/2025

Hot off the press! 📣📣In this tutorial we illustrate available multiple imputation approaches for handling longitudinal data including when they are clustered within higher level clusters. A reproducible example with R and Stata code provided! #OpenAccess onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

Multiple Imputation for Longitudinal Data: A Tutorial

Longitudinal studies are frequently used in medical research and involve collecting repeated measures on individuals over time. Observations from the same individual are invariably correlated and thu....

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

I reviewed this paper-it is excellent and everybody should read it!

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Reposted by Tim Hayes

Ed Merkle @edgarmerkle.bsky.social · 15/01/2025

New preprint with @winterstat.bsky.social and Ellen Fitzsimmons on ordinal factor analysis, where the latent variables are scaled so that they generally take values from 1 to # of ordered categories. The scaling is intuitive because it is what you use when you treat ordinal variables as continuous.

arxiv.org

Identification and Scaling of Latent Variables in Ordinal Factor Analysis

Social science researchers are generally accustomed to treating ordinal variables as though they are continuous. In this paper, we consider how identification constraints in ordinal factor analysis ca...

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

::Stat class student sheepishly raising their hand:: "But I thought the first rule of logarithms was we don't talk about logarithms ..."

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 06/01/2025

Happy “The Unspeakable Dread of the Semester Approaching has been Replaced by the Abject Horror of it Actually Arriving” to all who celebrate this week. 😃

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 04/01/2025

Time to fill in the placeholders (and edit the times) on the syllabus for my new spring class.

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 01/01/2025

Goodbye 2024, hello 2025! I’ve already forgotten my auld acquaintances.

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 28/12/2024

“🎵 I-I-I-buprofen It’s how I start my day. I-I-I-buprofen Makes the pain go away. 😃 I-I-I-buprofen’s Gonna make it all okay! Tha-a-a-t’s why *I* buy I-buprofen! 🎶” -Look me in the eye and tell me with a straight face that I shouldn’t have gone into marketing in the 1950s.

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 11/12/2024

Prep for my “Assumptions of Generalized Linear Models” lecture is going about as expected…

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

“I found this revision very good and you should accept it very much. Thank you! Bye bye!” -Me, trying my best to get through my journal reviewing commitments with tired new parent brain.

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 05/12/2024

You take your baby to daycare for three days? Sick. Right away.

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 12/11/2024

Agreed. In the original Rubin paper he distinguished between Observed At Random (OAR), which loosely means random with respect to the observed (seen) data, and Missing At Random (MAR), which means random with respect to the unseen data (missing scores). MCAR-not coined until later- = MAR + OAR.

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Tim Hayes @letsnotbehayest.bsky.social · 03/07/2024

All models are wrong. No models are useful. ::WOMP WOMP::

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Reposted by Tim Hayes

Eiko Fried @eikofried.bsky.social · 26/03/2024

Fantastic piece by Marten Scheffer on the forgotten half of thinking: ".. taking walks, reading things unrelated to your research, and hanging out with strangers in a campus pub should be considered part of the serious process of thinking .." www.pnas.org/doi/full/10....

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Reposted by Tim Hayes

Amanda Kay Montoya @akmontoya.bsky.social · 20/03/2024

There's still time to sign up for 3 days of Mediation, Moderation, and Conditional Process Analysis with me and @StatHorizons! April 18 - 20! Come get all your questions answered! statisticalhorizons.com/seminars/med...

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