Jonathan Lee @lee-cyclone.bsky.social · 19/07/2026🧵Compound extremes are probably increasing faster than individual extremes in a warming world: a thread 140 4
Jonathan Lee @lee-cyclone.bsky.social · 07/07/2026🧵(1/5) Just ~15 miles southeast of midtown Manhattan, it rained about 8” in the past 24 hours. It would have been a vastly different story had storms were just a few miles north … 100 1
Reposted by Jonathan LeeAndrew Dessler @andrewdessler.com · 30/06/2026On The Climate Brink, I explain how we connect extreme weather to climate change. Yes, it's another draft chapter from my forthcoming climate risk textbook. www.theclimatebrink.com/p/how-climat...theclimatebrink.comHow climate change influences extreme weatherHow science shows us how warming makes heat waves, floods, hurricanes, and wildfires more likely or more severe — and why this science is becoming a major public-policy battleground. 23214 32
Reposted by Jonathan LeeKatharine Hayhoe @katharinehayhoe.com · 28/05/2026RCP and SSP scenarios are not emission scenarios. I repeat: they are not emission scenarios. They are radiative forcing scenarios. Forcing = human emissions + the response of the climate system to those emissions You can only back out emissions by making assumptions about climate sensitivity. 220656 206
Jonathan Lee @lee-cyclone.bsky.social · 02/04/2026Early April temperatures in New York State: yesterday vs today. Some remarkable temperature gradients! 110 1
Reposted by Jonathan LeeDaniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 24/03/2026Given recent discussion regarding indirect role of anomalous precip (& associated upstream diabatic heating) in amplifying record-breaking heatwaves, even thousands of miles away (inc. Mar 2026 event), I wanted to share this excellent paper from 2025:nature.comBlocking diversity causes distinct roles of diabatic heating in the Northern HemisphereNature Communications - Atmospheric blocking patterns are often categorized into several types and diabatic heating is thought to primarily contribute positively to blocks. Here, the authors show... 28718 87
Reposted by Jonathan LeePam Kan-Rice @ucanrpam.bsky.social · 19/03/2026Phone weather apps are inaccurate. Those apps are fully automated and use algorithms that aren’t “sufficiently dynamic,” @weatherwest.bsky.social @ucanr.edu said — and in a nutshell, they’re lacking human expertise and customization behind the scenes. 45825 58
Reposted by Jonathan LeeTomer Burg @burgwx.bsky.social · 12/03/2026One of the wildest 24-hour loops you'll see in the Mid Atlantic - from mid-upper 80s and tornado warnings to 33F and heavy snow 04920 49
Jonathan Lee @lee-cyclone.bsky.social · 26/02/2026AI/ML algorithms can sometimes generate unphysical forecasts: a case in point 000 0
Jonathan Lee @lee-cyclone.bsky.social · 02/02/2026Over the past decade, Phil has only been accurate 30% of the time in subseasonal forecasts of spring temperature anomalies in the US. More details in the attached abstract (and graphical abstract, courtesy of NOAA). 100 1
Reposted by Jonathan LeeSimon Lee @simonleewx.com · 23/01/2026The extreme cold across eastern N America is due to the Alaskan Ridge regime, which on average brings the coldest winter weather to this region. Is this happening more often? No. During the modern warming era, there has been no observed trend in the occurrence of this regime at this time of year. 38028 80
Reposted by Jonathan LeeJonathan Lee @lee-cyclone.bsky.social · 24/12/2025🧵How might snowfall change in a warming world? I set up a very simple “toy” statistical model to explore this question. Isn't it obvious that snowfall decreases as temperatures get warmer? Yes, but … 142 4
Jonathan Lee @lee-cyclone.bsky.social · 24/12/2025🧵How might snowfall change in a warming world? I set up a very simple “toy” statistical model to explore this question. Isn't it obvious that snowfall decreases as temperatures get warmer? Yes, but … 142 4
Jonathan Lee @lee-cyclone.bsky.social · 18/12/2025#NCAR is a beautiful place and a national treasure. I had the chance to visit the NCAR Mesa Lab last summer, and their exhibits (free and public) are the coolest and most informative ones I’ve seen on atmospheric and climate science. (1/3) 183 8