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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

China's coal imports fell 6% in September year on year, crude oil imports fell 22% and fossil gas imports by 2%. Mirrors reductions in consumption as solar and wind displace coal and gas and EVs and rail displace oil.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Correction: August power consumption was the all-time record for that month; July had the highest demand to date for any month.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The increase in China's August solar and wind power generation from 2025 to 2026 was equal to Germany's total power consumption during the month.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The increase in China's August solar and wind power generation from 2025 to 2026 was equal to Germany's total power consumption during the month.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The wedge between power demand growth and fossil power generation growth, 6%-points, driven by clean power generation growth, is exactly what we'd want to see if power sector emissions are to keep going down also during times of faster demand growth.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The fall in residential power demand is explained by significantly lower cooling needs than in 2025. If residential demand was growing on trend, say 5%, total power demand growth would have been 3.4%. That's still a significant slowdown from 5%+ in recent years.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The implied 16% increase in wind and solar generation in August is close to the 16% increase in solar and 20% increase in wind power capacity compared with the same time last year, indicating that the problem of wasted wind and solar eased.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Wind and solar made up 26% of total power generation in August, up from 23% last year, and the total clean (non-fossil) share was 44%, up from 42% last year.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

When we attribute the "missing" generation to solar and wind, we find that solar and wind generation in August was around 280 TWh, instead of the reported 140 TWh. And the year-on-year increase was 37 TWh instead of the reported 12 TWh.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The exclusion of so much solar and wind leads to under-reporting of total generation as well: the generation dataset shows 94 TWh in August, while reported power consumption was 103 TWh, implying around 108 TWh of generation given transmission losses.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

China's industrial output statistics heavily under-report solar, and the growth of both wind and solar due to the inclusion criterion, which is a minimum threshold for annual turnover, excluding both small installations and installations owned by recently created companies.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Official data showed an 8TWh increase in generation from hydro and nuclear, and 12TWh from solar and wind, enough to cover demand growth, but not drive fossil generation down by 4%, or 27TWh. ACTUAL increase from solar and wind, as calculated from official data, was about 37TWh.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Electricity consumption grew just 1.7% overall, with 2.7% in industry, 5% in services and -4% in the residential sector. But that was still an all-time high for electricity consumed in one month by any country, ever, with an increase of 17 TWh from last year.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

Why did China's coal&gas power output fall 4% in August? Three reasons: power generation from wind and solar grew much more than reported, as always; industrial power demand growth slowed down; and milder temperatures drove a drop in residential demand. How to parse the data 👇

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

NEW from us: EU's CO2 fell 2% in H1 2026, behind the pace needed to meet 2030 targets, with a rise in gas-fired generation and insufficient clean energy growth driving up power sector emissions. Emission trends also show the need to electrify transport, buildings and industry.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

LNG imports fell sharply in China, South Korea, Japan and Belgium, acting as a hub for the EU. Russia's LNG imports rose with the EU ban on long-term contracts only taking effect at the turn of the year and Ukraine not targeting LNG exports (yet?), unlike oil.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Striking how India, Thailand, Malaysia, Portugal and Colombia increased LNG imports despite the price shock, showing what a vulnerability reliance on LNG is.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

China has been dominant in balancing the oil market, with Japan, South Korea and Singapore also cutting imports sharply in relative terms. India reduced imports in Q3, after import rose but consumption fell in Q2.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

How have the oil and gas markets balanced with exports from the Gulf restricted? In Q3, the increases in oil exports from the U.S. fizzled out, leaving even more of the shortfall to be absorbed by lower imports. For LNG, its a mix of both but also some striking jumps in imports.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

The 2025 estimates are an update of this analysis I did for 2024 exports. It turns out I was being conservative on the volumes of solar PV intermediates (wafers and cells) exported, so my estimates for 2024 increased too. www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chi...

carbonbrief.org

Analysis: China’s clean-energy exports in 2024 alone will cut overseas CO2 by 1% - Carbon Brief

China’s clean-energy technologies such as solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles are helping to cut emissions in other countries.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Just as the manufacturing boom ⁠led to increased supply and falling prices, the world experienced two fossil fuel price shocks in the past five years, giving adoption a further push.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Current growth of solar and EVs, particularly in emerging countries, was not on anyone's radar five years ago, before China's cleantech manufacturing boom.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

The solar panels, electric vehicles, EV batteries and wind turbines exported by China in 2025 will avoid annual emissions equal to those of the UK and Portugal combined, according to my new estimates. Avoided emissions increased 30% compared with 2024 exports.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Full implementation of Xi Jinping's pledge to stop building coal and support clean energy overseas is both an economic opportunity for China and project host countries and essential to China's credibility.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

The continued expansion of coal plants involving private Chinese firms risks breaching the 2021 pledge. Since 2021, 5.9 GW of China-linked coal power projects that were not under construction when the pledge was made have come into operation, and 7.3 GW entered construction.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Indonesia leads on operational Chinese-linked coal projects (17.1 GW), followed by Vietnam (3.8 GW) and Pakistan (3.4 GW). Most under-construction capacity is in Indonesia, followed by India and Zimbabwe.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

Despite progress, gaps remain: 7.1 GW of China-linked coal power capacity was cancelled in the past year, but 3.3 GW entered construction while 20.5 GW remains in planning without official cancellation, representing roughly 2.8 billion tonnes of potential lifetime CO₂ emissions.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

As of July 2026, 69 GW of China-linked renewables projects are operational overseas. These projects are projected to avoid lifetime emissions of approximately 1.9 billion tonnes of CO₂. A further 100.5 GW is under construction.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

67% of China-linked the coal power capacity planned in 2021 has been cancelled, with 61.5 GW cancelled in total — avoiding an estimated 6.4 billion tonnes of lifetime CO₂ emissions.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

NEW from us: five years after China pledged to stop overseas coal power projects and support clean energy, dozens of coal power plants have been canceled and the country's overseas clean energy financing has seen impressive growth, but gaps remain in the coal ban.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

The past few months saw the release of a dozen sectoral five-year plans dealing with energy, industry, emissions and the environment by different government bodies. Our China team has put together a guide to what they all mean.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

To keep the clean-energy growth going, India will need to make coal power plants and the grid more flexible to accommodate growing solar and wind, and to expand the power grid. The country's progress to date is impressive, indicating these challenges can be overcome.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

While the clean-power expansion is starting to meet most or all of India’s electricity demand growth, major investment in coal is still planned, including 43GW of coal power under construction and plans to expand coal mining, coking and coal-based chemical production.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

India’s industrial energy use is dominated by fossil fuels, particularly coal. Indian industry has the second-lowest electrification rate in the G20. The current low rates of electricity use imply that there is major potential for electrification.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Despite the progress in stabilizing power sector fossil fuel use and reducing oil and gas consumption, India's total CO2 emissions continued to increase in the past two years, due to rapid increase in industrial fossil fuel use and emissions, particularly for steel and cement.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

India's clean power growth and reduction in fossil power is concentrated in a few states. Gujarat saw both the largest reduction in fossil-fuel generation and the largest expansion in clean power, with Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu following in clean power expansion.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Clean energy met all of the 7% rise in India’s electricity demand over the two years, adding 63 terawatt hours (TWh), equivalent to the total demand of Switzerland. 60% of the clean power growth came from solar, with 77GW added. Capacity growth accelerated further in 2026.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

NEW from us: India's rapid clean power expansion has kept power sector emissions flat for two years, for the first time in over 50 years, and sharply reduced fossil fuel imports. Oil and gas consumption have also fallen for two years in a row, helping alleviate the Hormuz shock.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

But it's also clear that the current slowdown is too sharp to be acceptable to decision-makers and they will seek to boost growth; prioritizing clean energy and clean tech, as well as sectors with low emission intensity such as service consumption, is essential when they do.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

2026 is the first year of the new five-year cycle which is generally a slow year for investment, after the rush to complete projects by the end of the previous cycle and before all the projects in the next cycle get in motion.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Last year, cleantech drove all net growth in investment. It was always clear that investment in manufacturing capacity could not drive growth for long and growth would have to come from increasing value of output instead.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Fixed asset investment continued to contract, now down 7.2% year to date. Investment in power generation, auto production and other sectors where the cleantech boom was a key driver in the past years is having a hangover. Current unfavorable terms for new solar plants don't help.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

Solar cell production contracted again in August, by 13%, but 506 GW of cells were produced in the first 8 months of the year, on track to exceed the amount of solar installed in 2025 globally, 660GW, by some margin.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

EV production increased 22% in August while the production of fuel-burning vehicles contracted 26%, raising the share of EVs to 61% out of all vehicles produced.

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Lauri Myllyvirta @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social · 15/09/2026

As always, we will only have an accurate picture of solar, wind and total power generation growth after more detailed electricity data is published, but it's already clear that wind power generation rebounded from the slump of the earlier months of the year.

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