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A world map of climate policy: Who stands to gain most?
The unprecedentedly comprehensive dataset compiled by the research team shows how climate policy affects national assets in four ways: (1) it reduces demand of fossil fuels, potentially leading to losses in oil, gas and coal revenues; (2) it reduces climate-related damage to the national economy; (3) it creates new economic opportunities for solar and wind energy development; and (4) it increases the value of a country’s capacity to absorb and store CO₂ from the atmosphere – whether “naturally” via forests or “managed” through the stewardship of natural areas. “Based on our data analysis, we can map how countries could gain or lose from different aspects of decarbonisation by the end of this century, depending on the level of ambition in climate policy,” reports Guanna Pan, PIK researcher and lead author of the study. “We explore geopolitical tensions that may arise from some countries experiencing losses, but we also show how national interests can foster international cooperation, and how this can be further strengthened through targeted incentives.” Five groups of countries with similar interests To better understand potential economic gains and losses across countries, the research team has identified clusters – that is, groups of states in which climate policy generates...
