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John Kostyack

@kostyack.bsky.social
5.7K followers 2.1K following 5.3K posts

Consulting on climate change & the energy transition for NGOs & foundations at Kostyack Strategies. Senior Contributor at Forbes.com & Senior Fellow at ceea.us. All opinions expressed here are solely my own.

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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 13m
Wow. Usually these fossil fuel companies get a front to be their Senator. Corruption is now apparently so rampant than they don't even bother with the concealment, they just openly deploy their CEO. He's obviously highly motivated to win one for the team given his stock holdings.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 56m
Don't let Trump's goons intimidate you. Vote and help #freedc
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 4h
@robinsonmeyer.bsky.social's piece briefly discusses the deal's impact on data centers & concludes it's a setback for that industry bc of financial obligations for grid connections. But the data center industry loves fossil gas far more than it loves connecting to the grid. The deal is a huge gift.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 5h
Excellent points. Analyzing the permitting reform deal w/o looking at the fossil-powered data center boom makes little sense. Earthjustice just found 177 GWs of gas in the project pipeline for data centers thru 2030. The deal's slow-to-implement clean energy reforms have zero impact on this.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 5h
"The fantasy narrative that elites have built around AI has, at bottom, served a financial end... Pouring trillions of dollars into chips, power and server farms for something called “super intelligence” sounds like a safe bet rather than a massive gamble."
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 5h
I'm sharing because deeper public understanding about what fascism looks like is essential as we head into a momentous election. Grateful to @propublica.org for the coverage.
projects.propublica.org
More Than 500 U.S. Citizens Have Been Detained, Including Handcuffed or Held at Gunpoint, in Trump’s Immigration Crackdown — ProPublica
The government doesn’t track how often immigration officers detain U.S. citizens. So ProPublica did. We’ve found more than 500 Americans who were held against their will during this Trump administrati...
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 17h
Lastly, even if many of the gas plants for hyperscale data center complexes get approved, these are massive projects that will take many years to build. In 2029, i'm counting on a new Admin to enforce the law & limit the damage. But section IV of the bill places huge hurdles in the way of this.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 17h
Want to stop a fossil-powered data center? The first thing is to mobilize your community around public participation opportunities and then go about enforcing clean air, clean water and other environmental laws. The bill removes many of these tools .. bc the fossil gas buldout is inevitable?
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 17h
The Section IV provisions should be analyzed with this context: the data center opposition is strong and getting stronger, with a proven ability to stop projects; most of the gas plant buildout is tied to data centers, so at least some data center cancellations will lead to gas plant cancellations.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 17h
Agree w @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social that today's baseline condition is many GWs of fossil gas in the development pipeline, but don't buy into the idea that buildout is inevitable and therefore we shouldn't care what the permitting reform bill says on this topic.
heatmap.news
Permitting Reform’s Battle Lines Are Taking Shape
Many nonprofits representing the environmental and climate movement are split.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 18h
Thanks and yes, no question, there are tradeoffs. Transmission is the big unlock for large renewables. But plenty of groundwork can be laid in terms of building support while we await a governing moment at the federal level.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 18h
More than 1/2 of gas plant capacity under development will use simple cycle turbines (SCGT) or reciprocating engines (RICE). This means much more CO2, NOx and PM2.5 pollution if combined cycle gas turbines were used. For Big Tech, data centers' "speed to power" matters far more your health.
C02, NOX and PM2.5 emissions factors for types of gas power generation technology.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 19h
I'm with the "don't do this deal and don't bet on the next Congress" crowd. For the next 2-1/2 years, it's all defense on the federal side, advancing a climate-friendly agenda requires focusing on the states. bsky.app/profile/kost...
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 20h
So sorry, Danny. Your caution about ad hominem attacks resonates now more than ever.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 21h
Very much agree. I've seen that indignity up close: my grandfather, a Pennsylvania coal miner, died of black lung.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 22h
"Most BYOP projects are expected to seek grid connection eventually, raising important questions about the long-term economic, technical, and societal consequences of allowing future grid-connected gas projects to circumvent regulatory decision-making and protections today."
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 22h
Not coincidental that the proposals are concentrated in Appalachia / Midwest and Texas - those are the locations of the biggest oil and gas reserves in the US (and extensive pipeline networks).
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 22h
The report does a nice job of giving a sense of the scale (177 GW = 65% of the power used by all US households) and harms to our climate & public health & pocketbooks. Rejects claims by the data center industry that BYOP eliminates harm to consumers.
Location of proposed BYOP gas plant proposals from data centers.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 22h
Regulators are offering to speed up data centers' connections to the grid if they "bring their own power." @earthjustice.org & Better Data Center Project find that over the next 5 years, 80% of BYOP energy will come from fossil gas. Data centers propose to bring 177 GWs (!) of new gas.
earthjustice.org
The AI Gas Rush: Risks and Implications of “Bring Your Own Power”
A new report explains how data centers being built for AI tools are different than data centers of the past and present.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
In so many of these races, candidates' track records of support of data centers running roughshod over communities is just part of the disdain for democracy. From supporting Trump's subversion of elections to helping launch DOGE, these candidates should be nowhere near the reins of government.
wired.com
WIRED’s Midterms Races to Watch
From data centers to Elon Musk funding to the AI lobby, the 2026 midterms are the most WIRED elections yet. These are the candidates we’re following closely.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
@virginiaheffernan.bsky.social on the data center election: "There’s something especially satisfying about the oligarchs and their Republican friends crashing into, of all things, American democracy."
newrepublic.com
Trump? Diesel? ICE? Corruption? All of Those. But Mostly—Data Centers.
It’s not just about our water bills. The lords of AI have failed to persuade America in a spectacular way.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
We absolutely need reform of federal tranmission policy. But many setbacks, like this one in Texas, are not due to federal law, they're due to short-circuiting of public input and the lack of serious effort by industry to do outreach in the communities where the project would be built.
eenews.net
$33B transmission build-out leaves Texas ranchers fuming
The state approved a massive electric infrastructure expansion after lawmakers shortened the time regulators had to study projects.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Winning on federal and state politics and policy also requires getting into communities and building a stronger base of support. "Sorry, there will be no opportunity for public input under our new law," maybe not the best conversation starter?
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Across large swaths of the US, renewables deployment is blocked by local moratoriums & other local gov't action. This doesn't get fixed by rollbacks of federal env'tl laws. It requires the clean energy sector to come to terms w the fact that it has been badly out-organized by the fossil fuel lobby.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Cumulative impacts analyses are traditionally done by federal and state environmental regulators, whereas local zoning officials typically evaluate proposals in isolation. Lackawanna County PA wants to change this, launching a cumulative impacts study of the many proposed data centers in its area.
nytimes.com
When Data Centers Cluster Together, How Dirty Are They? One County Wants Answers.
An unusual study aims to estimate the pollution and health costs from a cluster of proposed data centers, instead of considering each one separately.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Plenty of respected leaders on protection of clean water, endangered species, and public participation are writing up their critiques, so i'll defer. I'll only add here that the clean energy industry doesn't help itself in its quest to build much-needed community support by pushing these rollbacks.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Time matters for the climate & public health. Hoping that all sides of this debate focus on the climate & health consequences of fossil fuel lock-in - both the locking in of fossil fuel infrastructure and the locking in of Trump's destructive regulatory policy.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
@zekehausfather.com, a supporter of the compromise, acknowledges that "the fossil-fuel provisions would take effect immediately, while the biggest clean-energy gains would take much longer to arrive, since they depend on years of implementation by federal regulators."
bloomberg.com
What the Senate Permitting Deal Means for US Climate Emissions
Experts say the bill, which would speed clean-energy and fossil-fuel projects alike, would probably reduce greenhouse gas emissions overall.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Suppose that after public grids are modernized and made more accessible, the builders of these gas-powered private grids will want to connect. What could a new administration do under the draft bill to prevent the addition of this massive complex of fossil power plants to the public grid?
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Streamlined permitting for transmission & clean energy projects is hardly a win if the main source of new electricity, Big Tech, refuses to commit to these grid-connected projects. RIght now, it is signaling that it has little patience for them & likes the "speed to power" benefits of private grids.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
The bill has provisions requiring Big Tech to pay for its grid impacts, but a tech lobbyist says these "tougher grid-connected requirements could encourage some developers to build more power systems completely off-grid."
axios.com
Data centers face a sweeping new power regime
Lawmakers are considering forcing data centers to shoulder new costs and restrictions while speeding up the energy infrastructure needed to power the AI boom.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Some clean energy advocates believe that because their tech is more economic, they will win under the "level playing field" created by this draft bill. But this bill creates legal rights for polluters to build pipelines and other infrastructure that negate the idea of a level playing field.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Big Tech firms are stumbling over each other to show who has the biggest ambition when it comes to fossil-powered data centers. Every day another massive climate-wrecking proposal gets approved under Trump. What options would a new admin have to reverse this under the draft bill?
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
As Jeremy explains, Title IV does far more than provide "project certainty." It gives unprecedented power to polluters to defeat regulatory actions by future administrations. If you're voting in 2028 to reverse Trump's vast rollbacks, study up on Title IV, it largely stymies those reversals.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
The Senate will take up permitting reform in early November, so it's time to grapple w what Dem negotiators gave up to streamline permitting for clean energy. @jeremysymons.bsky.social finds that the provisions won by the fossil & tech lobbies would cause lasting damage to our climate & clean air.
substack.com
This is not the permit reform deal that was advertised
Dangerous provisions would hand Trump broad powers to block future presidents from acting on climate change and restoring the Clean Air Act
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Talk about not reading the room. AL's PSC has adopted rules with the stated purpose of requiring data centers to pay their own costs, but data center proposals are approved "by default" if the commission fails to vote on them, and there are no provisions for public hearings or other public input.
insideclimatenews.org
Alabama Sets Stricter Data Center Rules. But There’s a Loophole. - Inside Climate News
The new rules require more public disclosure on data center projects but still allow large projects to be approved without a vote.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Love this! "Enabling public pension fund assets to be channeled in productive ways rather than putting public funds under the control of extractive asset managers" makes more sense today than ever, with our environmentally-destructive AI bubble financially engineered by those very asset managers.
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Reposted by John Kostyack
Democracy Docket @democracydocket.com · 07/10/2026
🎥 NEW: ICE never wanted you to see the internal documents it released last week. Why? It went so far as to outline a plan to use undercover agents to target nonprofits for registering voters. Marc Elias explains how deeply ICE has become involved in elections under Trump's second term👇
youtube.com
ICE Voter Plot EXPOSED in Smoking Gun Documents
YouTube video by Democracy Docket
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
I'd add: Big Tech $ is polluting virtually every one of these races with attack ads. The big question to be answered over the next month, depending in part on how the AI data center accountability movement responds: will voters buy into its deceptive narratives or see right through them?
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
@michael-thomas.bsky.social on the importance of November's elections to the trajectory of the data center boom. 20 closely-contested House districts have large-scale proposals. 10 close governor’s races will set rules for 67.4 GW of planned data centers.
substack.com
Voters Will Soon Decide the Fate of America’s Trillion Dollar AI Buildout
Ten races will set the rules for 67.4 GW of planned data centers—more capacity than the entire country has operating today
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
I didn't think i was still capable of being shocked after all we've seen, then i read this update on ICE. Things have only gotten worse since the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti. Expect to see many of these armed thugs at the voting stations in November.
newyorker.com
ICE Is Everywhere and Acting with Impunity
ICE arrests have reached a record high—nearly fifty-one thousand in August alone—with agents conducting operations nationwide at hospitals, at airports, and outside schools.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
So very sad. Proud to have known him, greatly benefitted from his wisdom.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
I confess to not having read the full 155-page (!) document but it seems that, thankfully, it does not encourage onsite generation at data centers, as the Governor suggested it would a week or so ago. Instead it calls for discouraging reliance on new BTM gas generation for data centers.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
"All four routes [to the climate target] involve massive growth in solar farms — between 1.2 GWs and 1.8 GWs per year — and a steady increase in distributed energy resources, such as customer-sited solar & batteries. One maintains current policies, while three add an emphasis on demand flexibility."
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Gov. Spanberger's new energy plan would preserve the state's "zero carbon by mid-century" climate target while meeting projected electricity demand growth of 85%. Presumes that most proposed data centers will get built and developers will power them w largely clean energy & pay their own costs.
canarymedia.com
Virginia’s new energy plan: Make the AI boom work for — not against —…
Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger’s just-released blueprint doubles down on the state’s landmark climate law while aiming to solve the data center growth…
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Yes, and bc these are mostly being set up (initially) as private grids, they're evading scrutiny from grid operators and utility regulators. What's left for communities to protect themselves from harms from this gas buildout? Some of the key remaining tools would be removed by permitting reform.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
There's a pretty clear correlation between problems in the real estate industry and rising interest rates. Loss of Biden-era subsidies aren't the driver of rising interest rates, are they? www.wsj.com/real-estate/...
wsj.com
The Surge in Rates Is Blowing Up Commercial Real-Estate Deals
Property buyers are demanding sellers renegotiate terms because of higher mortgage rates, signaling broader market distress.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
@foodandwater.bsky.social: US households are facing large-scale increases in water utility bills. Key drivers: corporate water abuses, federal disinvestment and climate change.
theguardian.com
US households pay 62% more for water than they did a decade ago, study finds
For-profit water corporations, federal cuts and climate crisis are ‘supercharging water rate hikes’, study co-author says
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Reposted by John Kostyack
Danny Cullenward @ghgpolicy.org · 05/10/2026
I thought this might be an exaggeration, but no! Despite all the talk of technology neutrality, it appears the permitting reform proposal would weaponize claims for federal damages — but in practice, only for fossil fuels.
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John Kostyack @kostyack.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Wells Fargo's Alvarado on the growing problems with corporate debt finance: “It’s getting serious now.” Bond issuers outside the AI space have a heightened risk of not meeting their obligations due to having to compete with yields offered by the U.S. government and AI hyperscalers.
politico.com
Junk bond reckoning looms
Investors are getting a lot choosier about where they put their money.
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