Previous conflict forecasting efforts identified three areas for improvement: the importance of spatiotemporal dependencies and nonlinearities and the further exploitation of latent information in ...

With the goal of improving the accuracy and certainty of our forecasts, we launched our second prediction competition in 2023. It challenged participants to forecast conflict intensity as a probabilit...

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Governmental and nongovernmental organizations have increasingly relied on early-warning systems of conflict to support their decisionmaking. Predictions of war...