iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Julian Walterskirchen @jwalterskirchen.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

Our recent paper has been published in @intlinteractions.bsky.social Taking time seriously: Predicting conflict fatalities using temporal fusion transformers This paper documents our contribution to the GFFO / VIEWS Prediction Challenge on forecasting organized violence.

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Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

🧵1/ Our first meta-science paper (with 350+ coauthors) is published today in Nature. It presents one of the largest-ever reproducibility projects in economics & political science. Here’s what we found 👇

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Julian Walterskirchen @jwalterskirchen.bsky.social · 09/03/2026

Happy to share that my new paper is out in @conflictmanagement.bsky.social I compare several NLP approaches for conflict prediction: • conflict dictionaries • sentiment dictionaries • word scaling • dynamic topic models • specialized transformer models

Text features and baseline models' predictive performance line charts over 6 time horizons (BBC data, left; CrisisWatch data, right).

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Reposted by Julian Walterskirchen

Moritz Marbach @moritz-marbach.com · 27/02/2026

🧺 Paper Picnic 2.0 is here! More journals. New features. An easier way to keep up with the latest research in political science and adjacent fields. 🧵👇

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Julian Walterskirchen @jwalterskirchen.bsky.social · 23/07/2025

Happy Day! More excited than I expected about reaching 100 citations in Google Scholar! Immensely grateful to my amazing co-authors who made it possible to reach this (mini) milestone!

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Reposted by Julian Walterskirchen

Political Analysis @polanalysis.bsky.social · 11/03/2025

Currently in FirstView: “Exponential Random Graph Models for Dynamic Signed Networks: An Application to International Relations” by @corneliusfritz.bsky.social, @mehrl.bsky.social, Paul Thurner, and Göran Kauermann. The authors propose the Signed Exponential Random Graph Model (SERGM).

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Institute for Replication @i4replication.bsky.social · 08/04/2024

Our first meta paper is out!! This paper combines our first 110 completed reproductions/replications. This is joint work with 350+ amazing coauthors. We summarize our findings below: econpapers.repec.org/paper/zbwi4r...

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Julian Walterskirchen @jwalterskirchen.bsky.social · 22/10/2023

Our Political Analysis article got an issue number and is now fully officially published. :) Check it out here www.cambridge.org/core/journal... also check out the neat web-app we built to play around with it. kfeapps-conflict-intensity-streamlitapp-auon5d.streamlit.app

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