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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 11/12/2025

Reminds me of this apparently real thing from awhile back.

Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 02/12/2025

I don't disagree. I will note that it's somewhat striking how different this picture looks if you start the base period two years earlier. fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgr...

A chart from FRED of the change in Food Away from Home, Shelter, Food at Home, Services Less Rent, Recreation, and Alcoholic Beverages from the CPI and average hourly earnings of private sector production & nonsupervisory employees from the establishment survey from January 2019 to September 2025.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 11/09/2025

I was reading something that backlinked to a 1999 CDC Morbidity & Mortality Weekly Report listing the ten great public health achievements of the century. Striking how many of these are directly or indirectly in the crosshairs of our conservative political movement. www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview...

The ten great public health achievements in the 20th century according to the CDC. Includes vaccination, control or infectious diseases, healthier mothers and babies, family planning, and fluoridation of drinking water, among others

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 26/07/2025

Something that really struck me reading the latest @budgetlab.bsky.social State of U.S. Tariffs, after imports shift in response to the latest tariffs the 19.4% effective overall rate is the highest since **1933**. Less than 500K people currently alive even remember what 1933 was like! #EconSky

A line chart of the average U.S. effective tariff rate since 1790 with the projected post-substitution rate based on tariffs announced as of 7/23/25.

An area chart of the number of U.S. residents by age in 2024. Less than 500K people currently alive in the U.S. were 5 years or older in 1933.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 24/07/2025

State JOLTS shows YoY declines in the labor leverage ratio (quits / layoffs) in much of the South, though the region is still the hotter labor markets nationally. Broad weakness in the Northeast especially in high layoff RI, ME, and CT, low quit PA and MA, and worst of both NJ #EconSky.

A map of the year-over-year change in the trailing 3 month average labor leverage ratio for each US state as of May. '25.

A scatter plot of the trailing three month average layoff rate and quits rate for each US state as of May. '25 with the national rates in dashed lines on the x and y axis.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 22/07/2025

A great point in the recent @employamerica.bsky.social piece on AI and recent college graduate labor market. There are a number of college majors that have actually seen a *decline* in unemployment from ~'17/'18 to present that one would anticipate to be impacted, mainly engineering. #EconSky

Arrow chart of college majors that have seen a decline in unemployment from 2017/2018 to 2023 using data from the Census ACS via the NY Federal Reserve Labor Market for Recent College Graduates: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/college-labor-market#--:explore:outcomes-by-major

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 17/07/2025

The big thrust behind this print is the rebound in auto spending. +0.92% at dealers MoM inflation-adjusted, powered by over +1% for vehicles specifically. Additional spending bumps between +0.21% and +0.28% at food and beverage stores, grocery, and restaurants. #EconSky #NumbersDay

A horizontal bar chart of other major retail sales category spending changes month-over-month from May '25 to Jun. '25. Increases of over 1% inflation adjusted on vehicles and between 0.22% and 0.28% on groceries and restaurants.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 17/07/2025

Drilling down into General Merchandise, Apparel and Accessories, Furniture and Other Sales (GAFO) misc. retailers like florists, used merchandise stores, and pet and pet supply stores saw a 1.46% MoM inflation-adjusted increase. Department stores dragging behind at a 1.06% drop. #EconSky #NumbersDay

A horizontal bar chart of the month-over-month inflation-adjusted change in retail sales at GAFO stores showing the most gains for miscellaneous store retailers and most losses for department stores.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 17/07/2025

Sizable month-over-month bump in in June for retail sales data from the Census MARTS. +0.36% MoM inflation-adjusted. Retail trade & food services ex. auto and gas a bit cooler at +0.27%. #NumbersDay #EconSky

A bar chart of the month-over-month change in retail sales and food services major categories showing ranges of +0.22% increase to +0.40% increase.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 15/05/2025

I looked it up because I was curious but I had a hunch Rose wasn't as good as a contemporary of his he's often compared to and...yeah I'd say this might surprise a certain type of baseball fan. stathead.com/tiny/aCYR1

A screenshot comparing career number of Rod Carew and Pete Rose. Rose played more games but Carew still had more bWAR and a better OPS+

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 21/04/2025

I'm not sure about poverty level but yeah many don't make much. BLS Occupational Employment & Wage data from last year has agents at ~$56k/yr median which is ~14% more than the median across all occupations. Brokers earn considerably more.

BLS OEWS employment and earnings data for all (SOC) occupations, real estate brokers and real estate sales agents from May 2024. All occupations $49.5k/yr, brokers $72k/yr, agents $56k/yr. Data from https://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 17/04/2025

Big weekly jump of 46 basis points in the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index. The 118bp 2 week rise is the 18th highest in the 32 years of data. 14 of the top 20 two-week increases were in recessions. #EconSky

A screenshot of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Financial Stress Index from 2021 to April 11th, 2025.

A table of 20 weeks with the largest two-week gain in the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index since the beginning of measured data in 1993.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 16/04/2025

A movie that takes place where you are from. Cameron Crowe's mostly self-biographical ALMOST FAMOUS (2000) includes his upbringing in the San Diego suburbs and attendance at what is now Cathedral Catholic High School.

Theatrical release poster of Almost Famous (2000) directed by Cameron Crowe and starring Kate Hudson, Frances McDormand and Billy Crudup

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 01/04/2025

Job openings still high in most sectors, though notably lowest in bluer-collar sectors like construction, mining and logging and manufacturing. However openings have declined since last year in every sector except leisure and hospitality. Total nonfarm openings rate down 11%. #EconSky #NumbersDay

Bar chart of the latest three month trailing average of the job openings rate by NAICS supersector from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey as of Feb. '25.

Bar chart of the yearly change in the latest three month trailing average of the job openings rate by NAICS supersector from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey as of Feb. '25.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 01/04/2025

Labor leverage ratio is still broadly strong — above 1:1 quits per layoff — in every sector. However every sector aside from construction, professional and business services, and financial activities has seen yearly declines. Overall total nonfarm yearly decline of 8.2%. #EconSky #NumbersDay

Bar chart of the latest three month trailing average of the labor leverage ratio by NAICS supersector from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey as of Feb. '25.

Bar chart of the yearly change in the latest three month trailing average of the labor leverage ratio by NAICS supersector from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey as of Feb. '25.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 01/04/2025

Layoffs rate for total nonfarm still relatively low at 1.1% of employment, about 3% higher than last year. Most sectors seeing moderate to larger yearly increases from relatively low rates except financial activities, professional and business services, and construction. #EconSky #NumbersDay

Bar chart of the latest three month trailing average of the layoffs rate by NAICS supersector from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey as of Feb. '25.

Bar chart of the yearly change in the latest three month trailing average of the layoffs rate by NAICS supersector from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey as of Feb. '25.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 01/04/2025

For the quits rate, leisure and hospitality still running the hottest at 3.6% of employment. Notably some knowledge worker sectors like financial activities and information have the lowest, aside from government. Overall almost 8% yearly decline in the total nonfarm rate. #EconSky #NumbersDay

Bar chart of the latest three month trailing average of the quits rate by NAICS supersector from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey as of Feb. '25.

Bar chart of the yearly change in the latest three month trailing average of the quits rate by NAICS supersector from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey as of Feb. '25.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 01/04/2025

Looking by NAICS supersector, the hires rate is still much higher in the leisure and hospitality sector than any other, even in the face of declines in the last year. Notably government has the lowest hires rate at 1.6% of employment with an almost 8% year-over-year decline. #EconSky #NumbersDay

Bar chart of the latest three month trailing average of the hires rate by NAICS supersector from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey as of Feb. '25.

Bar chart of the yearly change in the three month trailing average of the hires rate by NAICS supersector from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey as of Feb. '25.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 01/04/2025

The job openings rate has also cooled substantively from all-time highs in '21-'22. Though a rate of 4.5 is still higher than historical non-recession averages. #EconSky #NumbersDay

Time series line chart of the latest and three month trailing average of the job openings rate from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey as of Feb. '25.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 01/04/2025

This stasis also puts the labor leverage ratio — the number of quits per layoff in the overall workforce — at 1.78. Lower most of the last year but still well above non-recession averages. Typically values above 1 indicate greater worker confidence in the labor market. #EconSky #NumbersDay

Time series line chart of the latest and three month trailing average of the labor leverage ratio from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey as of Feb. '25.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 01/04/2025

Layoffs rate holding at 1.1% of employment for the fifth straight month. Slightly elevated from the major lows in '21-'22 but not showing sign of major loosening. #EconSky #NumbersDay

Time series line chart of the latest and three month trailing average of the layoffs rate from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey as of Feb. '25.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 01/04/2025

Quits rate also still steady at 2% of employment. Much like the hires rate a prolonged drawdown from the 2021/early '22 highs. #EconSky #NumbersDay

Time series line chart of the latest and three month trailing average of the quits rate from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey as of Feb. '25.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 01/04/2025

New labor market data for February from the BLS JOLTS survey out today. Hires rate is still stagnant at 3.4% of employment. #EconSky #NumbersDay

Time series line chart of the latest and three month trailing average of the hires rate from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey as of Feb. '25.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 26/03/2025

Wow, Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast has Q1 '25 at 0.2% even *after* adjusting for the massive trade imbalance from the gold import surge. Still waiting on the PCE data in two days as well as few other upcoming releases but definitely an eyebrow-raising number. #EconSky www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...

The Atlanta Fed GDP nowcast reading at 0.2% seasonally-adjusted at an annual rate for Q1 '25 even after accounting for massive trade imbalance due to gold imports.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 11/03/2025

Looking at the labor leverage ratio – the number of quits to layoffs – by sector shows every sector still above 1 as of Jan. '25. However 7 of 11 sectors have seen yearly declines in the labor leverage ratio. Larger declines in leisure and hospitality and information sectors. #EconSky #NumbersDay.

A bar chart of the latest labor leverage ratio by NAICS supersector from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey as of Jan. '25.

A bar chart of the yearly change in the labor leverage ratio by NAICS supersector from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey as of Jan. '25.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 11/03/2025

The yearly change in the layoffs rate is a bit more split between sectors. Larger increases in information and mining and logging, declines in financial activities and construction. Despite construction declines it has the leading rate sector wide at a relatively low ~1.7. #EconSky #NumbersDay

A bar chart of the latest layoffs rate from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey as of Jan. '25.

A bar chart of the yearly change in the layoffs rate from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey as of Jan. '25.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 11/03/2025

Despite the month-over-month bump, the yearly trend in quits is down for almost every single sector. Again, only leisure and hospitality has a quits rate >3 as of Jan. '25. #EconSky #NumbersDay

A bar chart of the latest quits rate from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey as of Jan. '25.

A bar chart of the year-over-year change in the quits rate from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey as of Jan. '25.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 11/03/2025

In terms of the hiring rate, slight yearly growth in the information and other services sectors but broader declines in most industries. In Jan. '25 only leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and construction had rates >4. #EconSky #NumbersDay.

A bar chart of the latest hires rate from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey as of Jan. '25.

A bar chart of the yearly change in the hires rate from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey as of Jan. '25.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 11/03/2025

Job openings rate is down for most NAICS supersectors year-over-year as of Jan. '25. Substantive declines for mining & logging as well as construction. Leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and private education and health services still relatively robust. #EconSky #NumbersDay

A bar chart of the latest job openings rate from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey as of Jan. '25.

A bar chart of the year-over-year change in the job openings rate from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey as of Jan. '25.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 11/03/2025

Taken together, the ratio of quits to layoffs – known as the labor leverage ratio, one sign of worker confidence in the labor market – ends Jan. '25 up at 2 for the first time since Jun. '24. #EconSky #NumbersDay

A time series line chart of the latest and 3 month trailing average of the labor leverage ratio from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 11/03/2025

Concurrently, the layoffs and discharges rate also declined from Dec. '24 to Jan. '25. The rate has been sub 1.3 for the last four years, a longstanding record for the 25 years of JOLTS data. #EconSky #NumbersDay

A time series line chart of the latest and 3 month trailing average of the layoffs rate from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 11/03/2025

Substantive spike in the quits rate from Dec. '24 to Jan. '25 from 1.9 to 2.1 is a reversal in the longer term trend over the last two years. Remains to be seen if that will continue into 2025. #EconSky #NumbersDay

A time series line chart of the latest and 3 month trailing average of the quits rate from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 11/03/2025

New labor market data for Jan. '25 out today from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey at the BLS. Hires rate remain flat at 3.4 after prolonged slowdown from 2021's hot labor market. #EconSky #NumbersDay

A time series line chart of the latest and 3 month trailing average of the hires rate from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 10/03/2025

He definitely foregrounds the rent-stabilized & public housing portion of his housing platform – which makes sense given his base – but this planning section at the bottom doesn't really read to me as typical left-NIMBY, especially points 1 - 3.

Zohran Mamdani's comprehensive planning housing platform:

"Even with a $100 billion commitment to new publicly-subsidized and preserved housing, we must do much more. Zohran will give the public a firmer hand in guiding housing development across New York by pursuing a Comprehensive City plan.

New York City, with more than eight million residents, does not have a guiding plan driving its growth and development. It’s high time we reformed our disjointed planning and zoning processes to create a holistic vision for affordability, equity, and growth. Comprehensive, citywide planning will allow NYC both to address the legacy of racially discriminatory zoning and to proactively plan for the health and needs of the city—in housing, transit, education, and other areas. That planning will include:

Increasing zoned capacity. This will allow housing supply to meet New York’s demand for both mixed-income and permanently affordable housing in areas that have historically not contributed to citywide housing goals—including those cut out of City of Yes.
Supporting climate sustainability and accessibility. By encouraging growth around subway stations and other public transit hubs across New York City, we will create a greener city.
Eliminating parking minimums. The City should be building housing, not parking lots.
Advocating to expand rent stabilization in Albany. When the City allows private developers to build, we are inviting the private sector to profit. We should ensure New Yorkers are getting more in return than what is currently required through Mandatory Inclusionary Housing and programs like 485-x. Zohran will advocate in Albany to expand rent stabilization to all new production as it was under 421a—ensuring that any new housing built in our city provides a stable home for those who live there."

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 07/03/2025

In terms of wages for all private sector employees, the annualized monthly change came in at 3.4%, slightly looser than previous months. Year-over-year change is still at ~4% which is still fairly strong wage growth. #EconSky #NumbersDay

A time series line chart of the monthly annualized and yearly change in average hourly earnings for all private sector workers according to the BLS Current Employment Statistics.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 07/03/2025

A longer view of NAICS industry supersectors shows continued slackening across sectors. However the information sector has slowly been cutting losses since late '23 nadir. Leisure and hospitality still positive but down from ~5% year-over-year growth in early '23. #NumbersDay #EconSky

A faceted time series line chart of year-over-year change in payroll employment by NAICS industry supersector in the US as of Feb. '25

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 07/03/2025

In terms of NAICS industry supersectors, private education and health services are still the fastest growing sector at 3.6% payroll employment growth since Feb. '24. Slight year-over-year declines in information and professional and business services sectors. #NumbersDay #EconSky

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 07/03/2025

The monthly job gains for Feb. '25 were +151,000. Second straight month under the ~200K growth averaged in non-recessionary periods though still a relatively robust number. #NumbersDay #EconSky

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 07/03/2025

New #JobsReport on nonfarm payroll employment out today from the BLS. Monthly change from Jan. to Feb. '25 of 1.1% annualized. Yearly change is still at 1.2%. Still only signs of the steady slowing. #EconSky #NumbersDay

A time-series line chart of the year-over-year and annualized month-over-month change in nonfarm payroll employment in the US through Feb. '25.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 20/02/2025

Really bringing this energy

Gob Bluth and the Alliance of Magicians from Arrested Development

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 19/02/2025

Right now, worker leverage – places where quits are higher than layoffs which indicate greater worker confidence in the economy – is lower in the northeast, especially New England. Places where it's the highest include AL, VA, and AZ. #EconSky #NumbersDay

A scatter plot of US states showing the trailing three-month average of the quits rate and layoffs rate as of Dec. '24 from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 19/02/2025

Looking at year-over-year change the broader picture is still clear: stagnation or declines in the quits rate for most states along with increases in the layoffs & discharges rates for all but 11 of them + DC.

A choropleth map of US states showing the trailing three-month average of the year-over-year percent change in the quits rate as of Dec. '24 from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

A choropleth map of US states showing the trailing three-month average of the year-over-year percent change in the layoffs and discharges rate as of Dec. '24 from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 19/02/2025

As far as the labor leverage ratio – the number of quits over the number of layoffs, an indicator of worker leverage – there are a few hotter states like AL, WY, and MO all over 2.3. Broader slackening in most of New England and NJ. #EconSky #NumbersDay

A choropleth map of US states showing the trailing three-month average of the labor leverage ratio as of Dec. '24 from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 19/02/2025

In terms of layoffs RI has a three-month trailing average rate of 2.4 due to a massive spike from 1.6 in Nov. '24 to 3.7 in Dec. Other New England states like ME and VT had elevated rates along with churn Mountain West states like AK, MT. #EconSky #NumbersDay

A choropleth map of US states showing the trailing three-month average of the layoffs and discharges rate as of Dec. '24 from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 19/02/2025

New state-level JOLTS data for Dec. '24 out today! First look at the quits rate. Still relatively high in mountain west states like AK, WY, and to a lesser extent MT and ID. Middle Atlantic and New England states seeing the lowest. #EconSky #NumbersDay

A choropleth map of US states showing the trailing three-month average of the quits rate as of Dec. '24 from the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 07/02/2025

Quick peek at average hourly earnings for Jan '25. Year-over-year growth at 4.1% and month-over-month annualized in at 5.9% — the highest monthly growth change in the last two years. Only 5 months in the last 2 years was monthly wage growth under 3% annualized. #JobsDay #NumbersDay #EconSky

A line chart of the year-over-year and month-over-month annualized change in average hourly earnings for private sector workers from the BLS Current Employment Statistics survey.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 07/02/2025

A longer view of the year-over-year change by industry reveals some slackening especially in information and mining and logging over the last year and change. Financial activities saw declines for much of '24 but now turning back to slight growth. #JobsDay #NumbersDay #EconSky

A faceted line chart of the year-over-year change in payroll employment by NAICS supersector for the last two years from the BLS Current Employment Statistics survey.

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Adrian Nesta @justanesta.com · 07/02/2025

Looking at year-over-year changes by NAICS supersector there is still strong growth in private education and health services. Notable declines in mining and logging. Services, leisure and hospitality still running hotter than overall job growth. #JobsDay #NumbersDay #EconSky

A bar graph of year-over-year change in payroll employment by NAICS supersector as of Jan. '25 from the BlS Current Employment Statistics Survey.

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